FRANCE LIGUE 1
02.05.2026 19:05
FT
1 - 1
Allianz Riviera
Referee: T. Leonard
Nice
Match Timeline
Lens
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
27'
Malang Sarr
Lens
🟨
44'
Florian Thauvin
Lens
🟨
45'
Abdulay Juma Bah
Nice
60'
A. Saint-Maximin · Assist: A. Thomasson
Lens
🔄
71'
K. Boudache ↔ A. Abdi
Nice
🔄
71'
M. Cho ↔ I. Jansson
Nice
🔄
71'
M. Sanson ↔ S. Abdul Samed
Nice
🔄
77'
O. Edouard ↔ A. Sima
Lens
🟥
81'
Saud Abdulhamid
Lens
🟨
82'
Adrien Thomasson
Lens
84'
A. Abdi
Nice
🔄
86'
F. Thauvin ↔ R. Aguilar
Lens
🟨
90'
Melvin Bard
Nice
🔄
90+1'
H. Boudaoui ↔ C. Vanhoutte
Nice
🔄
90+1'
S. Diop ↔ Kevin
Nice

Nice vs Lens Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 71.3%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 13.3%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 24.1%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
71.3%
-
BTTS BTTS No
13.3%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
24.1%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
-
Correct Score 0-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Nice Win 12.2%
Draw 16.6%
Lens Win 71.3%
Expected Goals (xG)
Nice1.09
Lens2
Recent Form (Last 5)
Nice Nice
WWDLW
50 GF / 80 GA
Lens Lens
WLDWL
76 GF / 38 GA
Key Stats
1.09
Average Goals Scored
2.17
1.74
Average Goals Conceded
1.09
26
BTTS Yes
20
24
Over 2.5
26
3.63
Shots on Goal
5.86

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Nice Nice 46 matches
Lens Lens 35 matches
Nice Statistic Lens
11 Wins 24
11 Draws 4
24 Losses 7
50 Goals For 76
80 Goals Against 38
1.09 Avg Goals Scored 2.17
1.74 Avg Goals Conceded 1.09
26 BTTS Yes 20
36 Over 1.5 30
24 Over 2.5 26
17 Over 3.5 13
7 Clean Sheets 11
16 Failed To Score 5
3.63 Shots On Goal 5.86
11.22 Total Shots 16.57
5.26 Corners 6.23
45.8% Ball Possession 52.6%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From the opening view, this looks like a meeting between teams arriving with different levels of stability, reinforced by Lens's more proactive style and Nice's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Nice expected to line up in 5-4-1 and Lens in 3-4-2-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Lens having the stronger overall control. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Lens carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 2 with 63 points while Nice sit 15 on 30, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.This game has the potential to be open, with both sides capable of creating several scoring chances. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Lens.

Nice Analysis

With 30 points from 31 games and a place of 15, Nice still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Across the season they have posted 7 wins, 9 draws, and 15 defeats, and the 35:57 goal record continues to suggest poor form and have been stuck in a sequence of draws. Their attacking burden often falls on Sofiane Diop (7 goals), E. Wahi (5 goals), M. Cho (4 goals), with creative support from J. Clauss (6 assists), M. Cho (3 assists), Sofiane Diop (2 assists), while at the back they have been quite vulnerable. At home, they have returned 4 wins, 6 draws, and 5 losses, which indicates a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

Lens Analysis

Placed 2 with 63 points from 30 outings, Lens continue to operate from a strong competitive position. The record of 20 wins, 3 draws, and 7 defeats, together with a 60:32 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through Odsonne Édouard (12 goals), F. Thauvin (10 goals), W. Said (10 goals), with creative support from Adrien Thomasson (8 assists), Matthieu Udol (7 assists), F. Thauvin (5 assists), while at the back they have looked fairly stable. Away from home, they have returned 7 wins, 3 draws, and 5 losses, a split that suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Nice won 8 times, Lens won 4 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 17:15 from Nice's perspective. 6 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 6 matches, with an average of 2.13 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: X2 (87.9%)
Predicted formations: Nice 5-4-1 / Lens 3-4-2-1
Missing players: Nice 4, Lens 3
H2H summary: Nice wins 8, draws 3, Lens wins 4

Standings

Ligue 1
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 34 24 4 6 74:29 45 76
L W W D W
2
Lens Away
34 22 4 8 66:35 31 70
W L W D D
3 34 18 7 9 52:37 15 61
L W D W D
4 34 18 6 10 53:40 13 60
L L W W W
5 34 18 5 11 63:45 18 59
W W L D L
6 34 17 8 9 59:50 9 59
L W L W W
7 34 16 6 12 60:54 6 54
L L W D D
8 34 15 8 11 58:47 11 53
W W D L W
9 34 11 12 11 48:51 -3 45
L W D L W
10 33 12 8 13 47:46 1 44
W W D L L
11 34 11 11 12 47:50 -3 44
W L W L W
12 34 10 9 15 43:55 -12 39
D L L L D
13 34 9 9 16 29:48 -19 36
D D L L D
14 34 7 14 13 32:44 -12 35
W L D D D
15 34 8 10 16 34:44 -10 34
W W W L D
16
Nice Home
34 7 11 16 37:60 -23 32
W D D L D
17 33 5 8 20 29:52 -23 23
L W L L D
18 34 3 8 23 32:76 -44 17
D L L D L
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