Predictions & Statistics
Full analysis and predictions for all markets
| Market | Option | Probability | Odds | Stats & Analysis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away Win |
74.1%
|
- | |
| BTTS | BTTS No |
26%
|
- | |
| Over / Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
18.2%
|
- | |
| Corners O/U | Over 7.5 Corners |
80.2%
|
- | |
| HT / FT | Draw / Away |
-
|
- | |
| Correct Score | 0-1 |
-
|
- |
Newcastle
Brighton
Statistics are based on season averages
Season Statistics
Team averages and season trends before this fixture
Newcastle
49 matches
Brighton
36 matches
| Newcastle | Statistic | Brighton |
|---|---|---|
| 19 | Wins | 14 |
| 10 | Draws | 11 |
| 20 | Losses | 11 |
| 81 | Goals For | 50 |
| 74 | Goals Against | 43 |
| 1.65 | Avg Goals Scored | 1.39 |
| 1.51 | Avg Goals Conceded | 1.19 |
| 33 | BTTS Yes | 21 |
| 40 | Over 1.5 | 30 |
| 34 | Over 2.5 | 18 |
| 19 | Over 3.5 | 6 |
| 12 | Clean Sheets | 9 |
| 8 | Failed To Score | 8 |
| 5.06 | Shots On Goal | 4.53 |
| 13.39 | Total Shots | 12.94 |
| 5.98 | Corners | 4.64 |
| 52% | Ball Possession | 52.5% |
Match Analysis
Model notes, team context and key prediction signals
This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around Brighton's more proactive style and Newcastle's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Brighton look sharper on recent form, and that momentum could be important in key phases of the match. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.This game has the potential to be open, with both sides capable of creating several scoring chances. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Newcastle expected to line up in 4-3-3 and Brighton in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Brighton having the stronger overall control. Brighton carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 6 with 50 points while Newcastle sit 14 on 42, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Brighton.
Newcastle approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 14 with 42 points from 34 matches. Across the season they have posted 12 wins, 6 draws, and 16 defeats, and the 46:50 goal record continues to suggest poor form and are going through a difficult losing run. Their attacking burden often falls on Bruno Guimarães (9 goals), N. Woltemade (8 goals), Anthony Gordon (6 goals), with creative support from Bruno Guimarães (4 assists), L. Miley (4 assists), N. Woltemade (3 assists), while at the back they have been quite vulnerable. At home, the split record of 8 wins, 2 draws, and 7 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.
From their first 34 matches, Brighton have collected 50 points and now occupy 6 place in the table. Their overall return of 13 wins, 11 draws, and 10 losses with goals at 48:39 reflects very strong form with results showing strong momentum. Their attacking weight is carried by D. Welbeck (13 goals), Diego Gómez (5 goals), Georginio Rutter (4 goals), with creative support from Y. Minteh (4 assists), Georginio Rutter (3 assists), Jan Paul van Hecke (3 assists), while defensively they have appeared fairly stable. Away from home, the record of 5 wins, 5 draws, and 7 losses points toward a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.
Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Newcastle won 4 times, Brighton won 6 times, while 5 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 17:21 from Newcastle's perspective. 9 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 10 matches, with an average of 2.53 goals per game.
Newcastle
6
4
6
6
1
3
Lineups
Newcastle
Fulham
Newcastle
West Ham
Newcastle
Nottingham Forest
Newcastle
Arsenal
Newcastle
Bournemouth
Newcastle
Crystal Palace
Newcastle
Sunderland
Newcastle
Barcelona
Newcastle
Chelsea
Newcastle
Barcelona
Newcastle
Manchester City
Newcastle
Manchester United
Newcastle
Everton
Newcastle
Qarabag
Newcastle
Manchester City
Newcastle
Qarabag
Newcastle
Aston Villa
Newcastle
Tottenham
Newcastle
Brentford
Newcastle
Liverpool
Brighton
Manchester United
Brighton
Leeds
Brighton
Wolves
Brighton
Chelsea
Brighton
Tottenham
Brighton
Burnley
Brighton
Liverpool
Brighton
Sunderland
Brighton
Arsenal
Brighton
Nottingham Forest
Brighton
Brentford
Brighton
Liverpool
Brighton
Aston Villa
Brighton
Crystal Palace
Brighton
Everton
Brighton
Fulham
Brighton
Bournemouth
Brighton
Manchester United
Brighton
Manchester City
Brighton
Burnley
Newcastle
West Ham
Newcastle
Bournemouth
Newcastle
Sunderland
Newcastle
Barcelona
Newcastle
Manchester City
Newcastle
Manchester United
Newcastle
Everton
Newcastle
Qarabag
Newcastle
Brentford
Newcastle
Aston Villa
Newcastle
PSV Eindhoven
Newcastle
Bournemouth
Newcastle
Leeds
Newcastle
Crystal Palace
Newcastle
Chelsea
Newcastle
Burnley
Newcastle
Tottenham
Newcastle
Manchester City
Newcastle
Athletic Club
Newcastle
Fulham
Brighton
Leeds
Brighton
Tottenham
Brighton
Burnley
Brighton
Sunderland
Brighton
Brentford
Brighton
Liverpool
Brighton
Aston Villa
Brighton
Fulham
Brighton
Manchester United
Brighton
Manchester City
Brighton
West Ham
Brighton
Arsenal
Brighton
Liverpool
Brighton
Nottingham Forest
Brighton
Crystal Palace
Brighton
Manchester United
Brighton
Wolves
Brighton
Chelsea
Brighton
Bournemouth
Brighton
Everton
Standings
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | PTS | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 38 | 26 | 7 | 5 | 71:27 | 44 | 85 |
W
W
W
W
W
|
|
| 2 | 38 | 23 | 9 | 6 | 77:35 | 42 | 78 |
L
D
W
W
D
|
|
| 3 | 38 | 20 | 11 | 7 | 69:50 | 19 | 71 |
W
W
D
W
W
|
|
| 4 | 38 | 19 | 8 | 11 | 56:49 | 7 | 65 |
W
W
D
L
L
|
|
| 5 | 38 | 17 | 9 | 12 | 63:53 | 10 | 60 |
D
L
D
L
W
|
|
| 6 | 38 | 13 | 18 | 7 | 58:54 | 4 | 57 |
D
D
W
W
D
|
|
| 7 | 38 | 14 | 12 | 12 | 42:48 | -6 | 54 |
W
W
D
D
L
|
|
| 8 |
Brighton
Away
|
38 | 14 | 11 | 13 | 52:46 | 6 | 53 |
L
L
W
L
W
|
| 9 | 38 | 14 | 11 | 13 | 55:52 | 3 | 53 |
D
D
L
W
L
|
|
| 10 | 38 | 14 | 10 | 14 | 58:52 | 6 | 52 |
L
W
D
L
L
|
|
| 11 | 38 | 15 | 7 | 16 | 47:51 | -4 | 52 |
W
D
L
L
W
|
|
| 12 |
Newcastle
Home
|
38 | 14 | 7 | 17 | 53:55 | -2 | 49 |
L
W
D
W
L
|
| 13 | 38 | 13 | 10 | 15 | 47:50 | -3 | 49 |
L
L
D
D
L
|
|
| 14 | 38 | 11 | 14 | 13 | 49:56 | -7 | 47 |
L
W
D
W
D
|
|
| 15 | 38 | 11 | 12 | 15 | 41:51 | -10 | 45 |
L
D
L
D
L
|
|
| 16 | 38 | 11 | 11 | 16 | 48:51 | -3 | 44 |
D
L
D
W
W
|
|
| 17 | 38 | 10 | 11 | 17 | 48:57 | -9 | 41 |
W
L
D
W
W
|
|
| 18 | 38 | 10 | 9 | 19 | 46:65 | -19 | 39 |
W
L
L
L
W
|
|
| 19 | 38 | 4 | 10 | 24 | 38:75 | -37 | 22 |
D
L
D
L
L
|
|
| 20 | 38 | 3 | 11 | 24 | 27:68 | -41 | 20 |
D
D
L
D
L
|