ENGLAND PREMIER LEAGUE
02.05.2026 14:00
St. James' Park
Referee: C. Kavanagh
Newcastle
Match Timeline
Brighton
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
12'
W. Osula · Assist: J. Murphy
Newcastle
🔄
18'
M. Wieffer ↔ J. Veltman
Brighton
🟨
22'
Joël Veltman
Brighton
24'
D. Burn · Assist: Bruno Guimaraes
Newcastle
🟨
39'
Kaoru Mitoma
Brighton
🟨
53'
Dan Burn
Newcastle
61'
J. Hinshelwood · Assist: D. Welbeck
Brighton
🔄
68'
W. Osula ↔ Y. Wissa
Newcastle
🔄
68'
J. Willock ↔ L. Hall
Newcastle
🔄
68'
J. Murphy ↔ H. Barnes
Newcastle
🔄
80'
C. Baleba ↔ C. Kostoulas
Brighton
🔄
80'
D. Welbeck ↔ G. Rutter
Brighton
🔄
81'
↔ M. De Cuyper
Brighton
🟨
85'
Sandro Tonali
Newcastle
🟨
87'
Yoane Wissa
Newcastle
🔄
88'
J. Hinshelwood ↔ L. Dunk
Brighton
🟨
90+2'
Jan Paul van Hecke
Brighton
🔄
90+1'
Bruno Guimaraes ↔ J. Ramsey
Newcastle
90'
H. Barnes · Assist: Y. Wissa
Newcastle

Newcastle vs Brighton Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 74.1%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 26%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 18.2%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
74.1%
-
BTTS BTTS No
26%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
18.2%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
80.2%
-
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
-
Correct Score 0-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Newcastle Win 21.3%
Draw 4.6%
Brighton Win 74.1%
Expected Goals (xG)
Newcastle1.47
Brighton1.44
Recent Form (Last 5)
Newcastle Newcastle
WWDLW
81 GF / 74 GA
Brighton Brighton
WLDWL
50 GF / 43 GA
Key Stats
1.65
Average Goals Scored
1.39
1.51
Average Goals Conceded
1.19
33
BTTS Yes
21
34
Over 2.5
18
5.06
Shots on Goal
4.53

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Newcastle Newcastle 49 matches
Brighton Brighton 36 matches
Newcastle Statistic Brighton
19 Wins 14
10 Draws 11
20 Losses 11
81 Goals For 50
74 Goals Against 43
1.65 Avg Goals Scored 1.39
1.51 Avg Goals Conceded 1.19
33 BTTS Yes 21
40 Over 1.5 30
34 Over 2.5 18
19 Over 3.5 6
12 Clean Sheets 9
8 Failed To Score 8
5.06 Shots On Goal 4.53
13.39 Total Shots 12.94
5.98 Corners 4.64
52% Ball Possession 52.5%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around Brighton's more proactive style and Newcastle's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Brighton look sharper on recent form, and that momentum could be important in key phases of the match. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.This game has the potential to be open, with both sides capable of creating several scoring chances. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Newcastle expected to line up in 4-3-3 and Brighton in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Brighton having the stronger overall control. Brighton carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 6 with 50 points while Newcastle sit 14 on 42, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Brighton.

Newcastle Analysis

Newcastle approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 14 with 42 points from 34 matches. Across the season they have posted 12 wins, 6 draws, and 16 defeats, and the 46:50 goal record continues to suggest poor form and are going through a difficult losing run. Their attacking burden often falls on Bruno Guimarães (9 goals), N. Woltemade (8 goals), Anthony Gordon (6 goals), with creative support from Bruno Guimarães (4 assists), L. Miley (4 assists), N. Woltemade (3 assists), while at the back they have been quite vulnerable. At home, the split record of 8 wins, 2 draws, and 7 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

Brighton Analysis

From their first 34 matches, Brighton have collected 50 points and now occupy 6 place in the table. Their overall return of 13 wins, 11 draws, and 10 losses with goals at 48:39 reflects very strong form with results showing strong momentum. Their attacking weight is carried by D. Welbeck (13 goals), Diego Gómez (5 goals), Georginio Rutter (4 goals), with creative support from Y. Minteh (4 assists), Georginio Rutter (3 assists), Jan Paul van Hecke (3 assists), while defensively they have appeared fairly stable. Away from home, the record of 5 wins, 5 draws, and 7 losses points toward a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Newcastle won 4 times, Brighton won 6 times, while 5 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 17:21 from Newcastle's perspective. 9 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 10 matches, with an average of 2.53 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (95.4%)
Predicted formations: Newcastle 4-3-3 / Brighton 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Newcastle wins 4, draws 5, Brighton wins 6

Standings

Premier League
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 38 26 7 5 71:27 44 85
W W W W W
2 38 23 9 6 77:35 42 78
L D W W D
3 38 20 11 7 69:50 19 71
W W D W W
4 38 19 8 11 56:49 7 65
W W D L L
5 38 17 9 12 63:53 10 60
D L D L W
6 38 13 18 7 58:54 4 57
D D W W D
7 38 14 12 12 42:48 -6 54
W W D D L
8 38 14 11 13 52:46 6 53
L L W L W
9 38 14 11 13 55:52 3 53
D D L W L
10 38 14 10 14 58:52 6 52
L W D L L
11 38 15 7 16 47:51 -4 52
W D L L W
12 38 14 7 17 53:55 -2 49
L W D W L
13 38 13 10 15 47:50 -3 49
L L D D L
14 38 11 14 13 49:56 -7 47
L W D W D
15 38 11 12 15 41:51 -10 45
L D L D L
16 38 11 11 16 48:51 -3 44
D L D W W
17 38 10 11 17 48:57 -9 41
W L D W W
18 38 10 9 19 46:65 -19 39
W L L L W
19 38 4 10 24 38:75 -37 22
D L D L L
20 38 3 11 24 27:68 -41 20
D D L D L
Promotion - Champions League (League phase)
Promotion - Europa League (League phase)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Relegation - Championship