🇺🇸 USA MAJOR LEAGUE SOCCER
18.09.2026 23:30
Yankee Stadium

New York City FC vs New York Red Bulls Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home or Draw
Probability 72.9%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 63.2%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 51.1%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home or Draw
72.9%
-
BTTS Yes
63.2%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
51.1%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Draw / Draw
-
-
Correct Score 1-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
New York City FC Win 51%
Draw 21.9%
New York Red Bulls Win 27.1%
Expected Goals (xG)
New York City FC1.69
New York Red Bulls1.42
Recent Form (Last 5)
New York City FC New York City FC
WWDLW
45 GF / 40 GA
New York Red Bulls New York Red Bulls
WLDWL
46 GF / 61 GA
Key Stats
1.5
Average Goals Scored
1.48
1.33
Average Goals Conceded
1.97
20
BTTS Yes
20
15
Over 2.5
20
4.68
Shots on Goal
4.76

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

New York City FC New York City FC 30 matches
New York Red Bulls New York Red Bulls 31 matches
New York City FC Statistic New York Red Bulls
9 Wins 10
10 Draws 6
11 Losses 15
45 Goals For 46
40 Goals Against 61
1.5 Avg Goals Scored 1.48
1.33 Avg Goals Conceded 1.97
20 BTTS Yes 20
27 Over 1.5 27
15 Over 2.5 20
7 Over 3.5 15
6 Clean Sheets 4
5 Failed To Score 8
4.68 Shots On Goal 4.76
11.44 Total Shots 13.28
3.72 Corners 5.68
53.9% Ball Possession 52.7%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

There is very little separating these two teams on paper, and New York City FC's more proactive style and New York Red Bulls's more cautious structure points toward a competitive game. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. New York Red Bulls arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring New York Red Bulls. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely.

New York City FC Analysis

So far, New York City FC have built a campaign that leaves them 9 in the table on 29 points from 24 matches. The record of 7 wins, 8 draws, and 9 defeats, together with a 37:33 goal balance, points toward poor form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through N. Fernández Mercau (9 goals), A. Ojeda (3 goals), H. Wolf (3 goals), with creative support from N. Fernández Mercau (4 assists), A. Ojeda (4 assists), H. Wolf (2 assists), while at the back they have looked fairly stable. At home, the record of 4 wins, 4 draws, and 5 losses points toward a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.

New York Red Bulls Analysis

New York Red Bulls approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 12 with 27 points from 24 matches. Their record of 7 wins, 6 draws, and 11 losses, together with goals at 32:48, reflects poor form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through J. Ruvalcaba (7 goals), J. Hall (4 goals), C. Cowell (2 goals), with creative support from J. Hall (3 assists), R. Donkor (3 assists), E. Forsberg (3 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been quite vulnerable. Away from home, the split record of 3 wins, 3 draws, and 6 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, New York City FC won 7 times, New York Red Bulls won 6 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 19:15 from New York City FC's perspective. 5 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 5 matches, with an average of 2.27 goals per game.

1X2: Home or Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (78.1%)
Predicted formations: New York City FC 4-3-3 / New York Red Bulls 4-3-3
H2H summary: New York City FC wins 7, draws 2, New York Red Bulls wins 6

Standings

Eastern Conference
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 25 16 6 3 50:21 29 54
D L D W W
2 25 12 9 4 61:46 15 45
D D D W L
3 25 13 4 8 41:31 10 43
W W L W D
4 25 11 7 7 45:36 9 40
D W D W W
5 24 11 6 7 45:35 10 39
L D D D D
6 25 10 4 11 44:56 -12 34
W W W D W
7 25 8 8 9 39:33 6 32
W L D D D
8 24 8 8 8 52:59 -7 32
D L L D W
9 24 8 6 10 41:39 2 30
W W W D D
10 25 8 6 11 33:48 -15 30
W L D L D
11 24 6 11 7 30:37 -7 29
D W D L L
12 25 6 11 8 38:46 -8 29
L W D D W
13 25 6 5 14 35:42 -7 23
L L W L L
14 25 6 5 14 29:43 -14 23
D L D L W
15 25 5 6 14 31:51 -20 21
L L L L D
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/8-finals)
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/16-finals)