🇺🇸 USA MAJOR LEAGUE SOCCER
04.09.2026 23:30
Yankee Stadium
Referee: R. Mendoza
New York City FC
Match Timeline
Nashville SC
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
13'
Andy Najar
Nashville SC
🟨
49'
Patrick Yazbek
Nashville SC
🟨
53'
Hany Mukhtar
Nashville SC
🔄
66'
P. Yazbek ↔ M. Corcoran
Nashville SC
🟨
68'
Kevin O'Toole
New York City FC
🔄
70'
J. Sands ↔ A. O'Neill
New York City FC
🔄
76'
Luighi ↔ M. Jones
New York City FC
🔄
81'
E. Saad ↔ A. Qasem
Nashville SC
🔄
81'
C. Espinoza ↔ S. Mohammed
Nashville SC
🔄
89'
A. Najar ↔ D. Lovitz
Nashville SC
🔄
89'
E. Tagseth ↔ B. Acosta
Nashville SC
🟨
90'
Malachi Jones
New York City FC
🟨
90+2'
Bryan Acosta
Nashville SC

New York City FC vs Nashville SC Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 50.8%
Odds 2.57
BTTS
Yes
Probability 86%
Odds 1.62
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 72%
Odds 1.83
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
50.8%
2.57
BTTS Yes
86%
1.62
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
72%
1.83
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
78.8%
1.43
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
6.50
Correct Score 1-2
-
8.00
Probability Distribution
New York City FC Win 35%
Draw 14.2%
Nashville SC Win 50.8%
Expected Goals (xG)
New York City FC1.23
Nashville SC1.67
Recent Form (Last 5)
New York City FC New York City FC
WWDLW
42 GF / 38 GA
Nashville SC Nashville SC
WLDWL
63 GF / 25 GA
Key Stats
1.56
Average Goals Scored
1.85
1.41
Average Goals Conceded
0.74
19
BTTS Yes
14
14
Over 2.5
17
4.86
Shots on Goal
4.43

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

New York City FC New York City FC 27 matches
Nashville SC Nashville SC 34 matches
New York City FC Statistic Nashville SC
8 Wins 21
9 Draws 8
10 Losses 5
42 Goals For 63
38 Goals Against 25
1.56 Avg Goals Scored 1.85
1.41 Avg Goals Conceded 0.74
19 BTTS Yes 14
25 Over 1.5 20
14 Over 2.5 17
7 Over 3.5 13
4 Clean Sheets 16
4 Failed To Score 8
4.86 Shots On Goal 4.43
11.64 Total Shots 11.47
3.5 Corners 5
54.1% Ball Possession 52.2%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with New York City FC expected to line up in 4-4-2 and Nashville SC in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Nashville SC having the stronger overall control. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Nashville SC. Nashville SC carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 1 with 49 points while New York City FC sit 7 on 27, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

New York City FC Analysis

New York City FC sit 7 with 27 points after 21 league matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 7 wins, 6 draws, and 8 losses, while the 35:30 goal ratio supports the view of poor form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on Nicolás Fernández (8 goals), Agustin Ojeda (3 goals), Hannes Wolf (3 goals), with creative support from Nicolás Fernández (3 assists), Agustin Ojeda (3 assists), Hannes Wolf (2 assists), and defensively they have been fairly stable. At home, the record of 4 wins, 3 draws, and 4 losses points toward a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.

Nashville SC Analysis

Operating from 1 place with 49 points from 21 games, Nashville SC bring one of the stronger season profiles into this match. With 15 wins, 4 draws, and 2 defeats plus a goal balance of 43:17, they continue to show good form and are on a winning streak. Their attacking quality is driven by H. Mukhtar (4 goals), Warren Madrigal (3 goals), S. Surridge (3 goals), with creative support from H. Mukhtar (4 assists), Cristian Espinoza (4 assists), A. Najar (2 assists), and at the back they have appeared very solid. Away from home, they have managed 5 wins, 3 draws, and 2 losses, which underlines a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In stylistic terms they continue to show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 9 head-to-head meetings, New York City FC won 3 times, Nashville SC won 4 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 11:13 from New York City FC's perspective. 6 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 6 matches, with an average of 2.67 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (85.8%)
Predicted formations: New York City FC 4-4-2 / Nashville SC 4-2-3-1
Missing players: New York City FC 10, Nashville SC 2
H2H summary: New York City FC wins 3, draws 2, Nashville SC wins 4

Standings

Eastern Conference
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 26 17 6 3 53:21 32 57
W D L D W
2 26 14 4 8 45:33 12 46
W W W L W
3 26 12 10 4 63:48 15 46
D D D D W
4 26 12 7 7 47:37 10 43
W D W D W
5 25 11 6 8 45:38 7 39
L L D D D
6 26 10 6 10 50:42 8 36
W W W W W
7 26 10 4 12 46:60 -14 34
L W W W D
8 26 9 6 11 34:48 -14 33
W W L D L
9 25 8 9 8 54:61 -7 33
D D L L D
10 26 8 8 10 39:34 5 32
L W L D D
11 25 6 11 8 31:39 -8 29
L D W D L
12 26 6 11 9 39:49 -10 29
L L W D D
13 26 7 5 14 37:42 -5 26
W L L W L
14 26 7 5 14 30:43 -13 26
W D L D L
15 26 5 6 15 31:53 -22 21
L L L L L
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/8-finals)
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/16-finals)