🇺🇸 USA › MAJOR LEAGUE SOCCER
22.04.2026 23:30
Yankee Stadium
Referee: S. Boiko
New York City FC
Match Timeline
FC Cincinnati
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
⚽
20'
N. Mercau
New York City FC
🔄
23'
T. Hadebe ↔ A. Powell
FC Cincinnati
⚽
32'
K. Denkey · Assist: E. Echenique
FC Cincinnati
⚽
35'
N. Mercau · Assist: M. Moralez
New York City FC
🔄
46'
↔ A. Chirila
FC Cincinnati
🟨
50'
Gilberto Flores
FC Cincinnati
⚽
53'
A. Ojeda · Assist: A. O'Neill
New York City FC
VAR
59'
Evander
FC Cincinnati
🔄
60'
G. Flores ↔ T. Anunga
FC Cincinnati
🔄
60'
E. Echenique ↔ G. Valenzuela
FC Cincinnati
⚽
65'
K. Denkey · Assist: G. Valenzuela
FC Cincinnati
🟨
71'
Kyle Smith
FC Cincinnati
🔄
72'
H. Wolf ↔ K. Parks
New York City FC
🔄
72'
M. Moralez ↔ Talles Magno
New York City FC
⚽
79'
Talles Magno · Assist: A. Ojeda
New York City FC
🔄
83'
T. Barlow ↔ A. Jabbari
FC Cincinnati
🔄
84'
A. Ojeda ↔ J. Shore
New York City FC
🔄
84'
N. Mercau ↔ A. Farnos
New York City FC
🟨
90+6'
Tah Anunga
FC Cincinnati
🔄
90'
T. Gray ↔ S. Tanasijevic
New York City FC
⚽
90'
A. Chirila · Assist: P. Bucha
FC Cincinnati
⚽
90'
Evander
FC Cincinnati

New York City FC vs FC Cincinnati Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 91.6%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 82.1%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 63.6%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
91.6%
- ▥
BTTS BTTS Yes
82.1%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
63.6%
- ▥
Probability Distribution
New York City FC Win 91.6%
Draw 8.5%
FC Cincinnati Win 0%
Expected Goals (xG)
New York City FC1.7
FC Cincinnati1.87
Recent Form (Last 5)
New York City FC New York City FC
WWDLW
21 GF / 18 GA
FC Cincinnati FC Cincinnati
WLDWL
35 GF / 29 GA
Key Stats
1.62
Average Goals Scored
2.19
1.38
Average Goals Conceded
1.81
9
BTTS Yes
9
7
Over 2.5
9
5.5
Shots on Goal
6.17

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

New York City FC New York City FC 13 matches
FC Cincinnati FC Cincinnati 16 matches
New York City FC Statistic FC Cincinnati
4 Wins 6
4 Draws 4
5 Losses 6
21 Goals For 35
18 Goals Against 29
1.62 Avg Goals Scored 2.19
1.38 Avg Goals Conceded 1.81
9 BTTS Yes 9
13 Over 1.5 13
7 Over 2.5 9
4 Over 3.5 8
2 Clean Sheets 5
2 Failed To Score 2
5.5 Shots On Goal 6.17
13.38 Total Shots 14.67
4.38 Corners 5.5
57% Ball Possession 51.8%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match looks like a contest between New York City FC's more proactive style and FC Cincinnati's more cautious structure. Both teams have notable availability concerns, so squad depth and in-game adjustments could matter more than usual. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with New York City FC expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and FC Cincinnati in 3-4-1-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward FC Cincinnati having the stronger overall control. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors FC Cincinnati. New York City FC have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

New York City FC Analysis

New York City FC sit 7 with 11 points after 8 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Across the season they have posted 3 wins, 2 draws, and 3 defeats, and the 14:9 goal record continues to suggest poor form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on N. Mercau (6 goals), A. Ojeda (2 goals), H. Wolf (2 goals), with creative support from M. Moralez (5 assists), A. Ojeda (1 assists), H. Wolf (1 assists), while at the back they have been very solid. At home, the split record of 2 wins, 1 draws, and 1 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader football approach still suggests balanced attacking football. They are not at full strength, with A. Martinez, A. Perea, D. Baiera unavailable, although the overall attacking core still looks largely intact.

FC Cincinnati Analysis

FC Cincinnati are currently 10 in the standings with 8 points from 8 matches. The record of 2 wins, 2 draws, and 4 defeats, together with a 10:16 goal balance, points toward poor form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through K. Denkey (2 goals), T. Barlow (2 goals), Ayoub Jabbari (1 goals), with creative support from E. Echenique (2 assists), K. Denkey (1 assists), Ayoub Jabbari (1 assists), while at the back they have looked very solid. Away from home, their split return of 0 wins, 1 draws, and 3 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they usually display a more cautious and defensive approach. They are not at full strength, with K. Fletcher, O. Nwobodo, M. Miazga unavailable, although the overall attacking core still looks largely intact.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, New York City FC won 4 times, FC Cincinnati won 7 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 21:27 from New York City FC's perspective. 8 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 8 matches, with an average of 3.2 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 1X (100%)
Predicted formations: New York City FC 4-2-3-1 / FC Cincinnati 3-4-1-2
Missing players: New York City FC 3, FC Cincinnati 5
H2H summary: New York City FC wins 4, draws 4, FC Cincinnati wins 7

Standings

Eastern Conference
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 27 18 6 3 55:21 34 60
W W D L D
2 27 14 4 9 45:36 9 46
L W W W L
3 26 12 10 4 63:48 15 46
D D D D W
4 27 12 7 8 47:38 9 43
L W D W D
5 26 12 6 8 46:38 8 42
W L L D D
6 27 11 6 10 54:44 10 39
W W W W W
7 27 10 4 13 48:64 -16 34
L L W W W
8 26 9 6 11 34:48 -14 33
W W L D L
9 27 8 9 10 41:36 5 33
D L W L D
10 26 8 9 9 55:64 -9 33
L D D L L
11 26 6 12 8 34:42 -8 30
D L D W D
12 27 6 11 10 39:51 -12 29
L L L W D
13 27 7 6 14 32:45 -13 27
D W D L D
14 26 7 5 14 37:42 -5 26
W L L W L
15 27 6 6 15 34:54 -20 24
W L L L L
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/8-finals)
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/16-finals)