🇺🇸 USA MAJOR LEAGUE SOCCER
25.07.2026 23:30
Yankee Stadium
Referee: J. Montero
New York City FC
Match Timeline
Chicago Fire
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
10'
N. Mercau
New York City FC
21'
J. Waterman
Chicago Fire
29'
A. Ojeda · Assist: A. Perea
New York City FC
41'
M. Jones · Assist: A. Ojeda
New York City FC
🔄
46'
M. Haile-Selassie ↔ R. Lewandowski
Chicago Fire
🔄
46'
L. Barroso ↔ J. Dean
Chicago Fire
🟨
51'
Dje Tah D'Avilla
Chicago Fire
🟨
62'
Nicolás Fernández
New York City FC
🔄
63'
D. D'Avilla ↔ M. Pineda
Chicago Fire
🔄
69'
M. Jones ↔ B. Traore
New York City FC
🔄
71'
V. Radojevic ↔ A. Gutman
Chicago Fire
🔄
71'
R. Lod ↔ P. Dithejane
Chicago Fire
🟨
77'
Joel Waterman
Chicago Fire
🟨
80'
Puso Dithejane
Chicago Fire
🔄
85'
Talles Magno ↔ H. Wolf
New York City FC
🔄
85'
J. Shore ↔ A. Farnos
New York City FC
🔄
90+2'
A. Ojeda ↔ M. Ilenic
New York City FC

New York City FC vs Chicago Fire Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 63.7%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 78.8%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 72%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
63.7%
-
BTTS Yes
78.8%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
72%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
-
Correct Score 1-2
-
-
Probability Distribution
New York City FC Win 28.4%
Draw 7.9%
Chicago Fire Win 63.7%
Expected Goals (xG)
New York City FC1.46
Chicago Fire1.64
Recent Form (Last 5)
New York City FC New York City FC
WWDLW
33 GF / 29 GA
Chicago Fire Chicago Fire
WLDWL
38 GF / 27 GA
Key Stats
1.57
Average Goals Scored
1.81
1.38
Average Goals Conceded
1.29
13
BTTS Yes
12
11
Over 2.5
14
5
Shots on Goal
5.13

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

New York City FC New York City FC 21 matches
Chicago Fire Chicago Fire 21 matches
New York City FC Statistic Chicago Fire
7 Wins 10
6 Draws 5
8 Losses 6
33 Goals For 38
29 Goals Against 27
1.57 Avg Goals Scored 1.81
1.38 Avg Goals Conceded 1.29
13 BTTS Yes 12
19 Over 1.5 15
11 Over 2.5 14
5 Over 3.5 9
4 Clean Sheets 9
4 Failed To Score 3
5 Shots On Goal 5.13
11.25 Total Shots 14.87
3.38 Corners 4.53
55.8% Ball Possession 52.7%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Given the broader gap between the sides, Away Win looks like the most logical direction, while the clean-sheet expectation leans toward Chicago Fire. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Chicago Fire carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 3 with 26 points while New York City FC sit 8 on 19, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself.

New York City FC Analysis

So far, New York City FC have built a campaign that leaves them 8 in the table on 19 points from 15 matches. Their overall return of 5 wins, 4 draws, and 6 losses with goals at 25:21 reflects mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by Nicolás Fernández (5 goals), Hannes Wolf (3 goals), Agustin Ojeda (1 goals), with creative support from Nicolás Fernández (3 assists), Hannes Wolf (2 assists), Agustin Ojeda (2 assists), while defensively they have appeared very solid. At home, their split return of 3 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football.

Chicago Fire Analysis

Chicago Fire come into this fixture from a strong position, holding 3 place with 26 points after 14 matches. They have recorded 8 wins, 2 draws, and 4 losses, with a 27:16 goal return and good form and are on a winning streak. In attack they lean heavily on Hugo Cuypers (8 goals), Philip Zinckernagel (5 goals), Maren Haile-Selassie (3 goals), with creative support from Philip Zinckernagel (6 assists), Maren Haile-Selassie (2 assists), Jonathan Bamba (2 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. Away from home, the split of 3 wins, 2 draws, and 1 losses supports the view of a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their football identity still points toward balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, New York City FC won 9 times, Chicago Fire won 1 times, while 5 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 25:13 from New York City FC's perspective. 6 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 8 matches, with an average of 2.53 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (92.1%)
Predicted formations: New York City FC 4-2-3-1 / Chicago Fire 4-2-3-1
Missing players: New York City FC 7, Chicago Fire 3
H2H summary: New York City FC wins 9, draws 5, Chicago Fire wins 1

Standings

Eastern Conference
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 26 17 6 3 53:21 32 57
W D L D W
2 26 14 4 8 45:33 12 46
W W W L W
3 25 12 9 4 61:46 15 45
D D D W L
4 26 12 7 7 47:37 10 43
W D W D W
5 25 11 6 8 45:38 7 39
L L D D D
6 26 10 6 10 50:42 8 36
W W W W W
7 26 10 4 12 46:60 -14 34
L W W W D
8 26 9 6 11 34:48 -14 33
W W L D L
9 25 8 9 8 54:61 -7 33
D D L L D
10 26 8 8 10 39:34 5 32
L W L D D
11 25 6 11 8 31:39 -8 29
L D W D L
12 26 6 11 9 39:49 -10 29
L L W D D
13 26 7 5 14 37:42 -5 26
W L L W L
14 26 7 5 14 30:43 -13 26
W D L D L
15 26 5 6 15 31:53 -22 21
L L L L L
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/8-finals)
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/16-finals)