MEXICO LIGA MX
--.--.---- --:--
Estadio Victoria
Referee: K. I. Garcia Mendoza
Necaxa
Match Timeline
Tigres UANL
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
34'
T. Badaloni · Assist: D. Leyva
Necaxa
🟨
43'
Danny Leyva
Necaxa
🔄
46'
Joaquim ↔ A. Correa
Tigres UANL
🔄
55'
A. E. Almendra ↔ K. Rosero
Necaxa
🔄
56'
M. Flores ↔ D. Lainez
Tigres UANL
🔄
67'
F. Reyes ↔ D. A. Sanchez Guevara
Tigres UANL
🔄
67'
C. Araujo ↔ R. Aguirre
Tigres UANL
🔄
76'
J. Ruiz ↔ F. Rossano
Necaxa
🔄
76'
O. Herrera ↔ J. Angulo
Tigres UANL
🟨
82'
Ricardo Monreal
Necaxa
🟨
82'
Rodrigo Aguirre
Tigres UANL
🔄
84'
R. Monreal ↔ R. Cortez
Necaxa
🔄
84'
F. Mendez ↔ E. Lara
Necaxa
90'
A. Correa · Assist: R. Aguirre
Tigres UANL

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 62.8%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 77.8%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 78.3%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
62.8%
-
BTTS BTTS Yes
77.8%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
78.3%
-
Probability Distribution
Necaxa Win 62.8%
Draw 16.5%
Tigres UANL Win 20.7%
Expected Goals (xG)
Necaxa1.21
Tigres UANL1.74
Recent Form (Last 5)
Necaxa Necaxa
WWDLW
41 GF / 52 GA
Tigres UANL Tigres UANL
WLDWL
66 GF / 39 GA
Key Stats
1.32
Average Goals Scored
1.78
1.68
Average Goals Conceded
1.05
19
BTTS Yes
21
18
Over 2.5
19
4.55
Shots on Goal
5.3

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Necaxa Necaxa 31 matches
Tigres UANL Tigres UANL 37 matches
Necaxa Statistic Tigres UANL
9 Wins 18
6 Draws 10
16 Losses 9
41 Goals For 66
52 Goals Against 39
1.32 Avg Goals Scored 1.78
1.68 Avg Goals Conceded 1.05
19 BTTS Yes 21
25 Over 1.5 27
18 Over 2.5 19
10 Over 3.5 11
3 Clean Sheets 13
10 Failed To Score 7
4.55 Shots On Goal 5.3
14.58 Total Shots 15.05
5.13 Corners 5.43
50.3% Ball Possession 54.2%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

Looking at the broader profile of both teams, this encounter highlights Tigres UANL's more proactive style and Necaxa's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Tigres UANL. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Necaxa expected to line up in 3-1-4-2 and Tigres UANL in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Tigres UANL having the stronger overall control. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

Necaxa Analysis

Necaxa are currently 12 in the standings with 16 points from 14 matches. Their overall return of 5 wins, 1 draws, and 8 losses with goals at 17:20 reflects mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by D. Cambindo (12 goals), Tomás Badaloni (7 goals), A. Palavecino (6 goals), with creative support from A. Palavecino (5 assists), Franco Rossano (4 assists), D. Cambindo (3 assists), while defensively they have appeared very solid. At home, their split return of 3 wins, 0 draws, and 4 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they usually display a more cautious and defensive approach.

Tigres UANL Analysis

Tigres UANL sit 6 with 20 points after 14 league matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 6 wins, 2 draws, and 6 losses, while the 22:16 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on Juan Brunetta (16 goals), A. Correa (14 goals), D. Lainez (6 goals), with creative support from Juan Brunetta (8 assists), A. Correa (8 assists), D. Lainez (7 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. Away from home, the record of 3 wins, 0 draws, and 4 losses points toward a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Necaxa won 1 times, Tigres UANL won 8 times, while 6 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 12:26 from Necaxa's perspective. 6 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 6 matches, with an average of 2.53 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (83.5%)
Predicted formations: Necaxa 3-1-4-2 / Tigres UANL 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Necaxa wins 1, draws 6, Tigres UANL wins 8
Stats
Necaxa Necaxa
Tigres UANL Tigres UANL
Shots on Goal
2
Shots on Goal
5
Shots off Goal
4
Shots off Goal
6
Blocked Shots
1
Blocked Shots
6
0 Corner Kicks 12
16 Fouls 10
1 Offsides 1
27% Ball Possession 73%
7 Total Shots 17
2 Shots on Goal 5
4 Shots off Goal 6
1 Blocked Shots 6
4 Shots insidebox 7
3 Shots outsidebox 10
4 Goalkeeper Saves 1
247 Total passes 630
174 Passes accurate 562
0.71 expected_goals 1.20
🟨 2 Yellow Cards 1 🟨
🟥 0 Red Cards 0 🟥

Lineups

Necaxa
Formation
Tigres UANL
E. Unsain
E. Unsain
R. Martinez
R. Martinez
A. Pena
A. Pena
F. Mendez
F. Mendez
C. Calderon
C. Calderon
R. Monreal
R. Monreal
K. Gutierrez
K. Gutierrez
D. Leyva
🎯
D. Leyva
J. Ruiz
J. Ruiz
A. E. Almendra
A. E. Almendra
T. Badaloni
T. Badaloni
N. Guzman
N. Guzman
J. Garza
J. Garza
Joaquim
Joaquim
Romulo
Romulo
F. Reyes
F. Reyes
F. Gorriaran
F. Gorriaran
C. Araujo
C. Araujo
O. Herrera
O. Herrera
J. Brunetta
J. Brunetta
M. Flores
M. Flores
A. Gignac
A. Gignac
Necaxa 4-4-2
Starting XI
22
E. Unsain
G
33
R. Martinez
D
4
A. Pena
D
20
F. Mendez
↓ 84'
D
16
C. Calderon
D
30
R. Monreal
↓ 84' 🟨 82'
M
5
K. Gutierrez
M
6
D. Leyva
🎯 34' 🟨 43'
M
35
J. Ruiz
↓ 76'
M
10
A. E. Almendra
↓ 55'
F
9
T. Badaloni
⚽ 34'
F
Substitutes
12
L. Jimenez
G
188
I. Tello
F
17
R. Cortez
↑ 84'
M
24
F. Rossano
↑ 76'
D
210
J. Palacios
M
7
K. Rosero
↑ 55'
F
26
E. Lara
↑ 84'
D
189
B. Casas
F
197
A. Moreno
M
232
R. Alonso
Tigres UANL 4-2-3-1
Starting XI
1
N. Guzman
G
14
J. Garza
28
Joaquim
↓ 46'
D
23
Romulo
D
2
F. Reyes
↓ 67'
D
8
F. Gorriaran
M
5
C. Araujo
↓ 67'
M
77
O. Herrera
↓ 76'
M
11
J. Brunetta
M
20
M. Flores
↓ 56'
M
10
A. Gignac
F
Substitutes
25
F. Rodriguez
G
16
D. Lainez
↑ 56'
M
27
J. Angulo
↑ 76'
D
30
D. A. Sanchez Guevara
↑ 67'
F
17
R. Aguirre
🎯 90' ↑ 67' 🟨 82'
F
6
J. Vigon
M
7
A. Correa
⚽ 90' ↑ 46'
F
4
J. Sanchez
D
33
R. Guerrero
D
204
Simeone
M
Last matches: Necaxa
17.07.26
Lig
Necaxa
Atlante FC
2
1
W
04.07.26
Fri
Necaxa
Atlas
0
0
D
01.07.26
Fri
Necaxa
Correcaminos Uat
6
3
W
20.06.26
Fri
Necaxa
Monarcas
1
0
W
27.04.26
Lig
Necaxa
Cruz Azul
1
4
L
23.04.26
Lig
Necaxa
Guadalajara Chivas
0
0
D
11.04.26
Lig
Necaxa
Club Queretaro
1
3
L
04.04.26
Lig
Necaxa
Mazatlán
2
1
W
21.03.26
Lig
Necaxa
Club Tijuana
3
0
W
14.03.26
Lig
Necaxa
Puebla
0
0
D
07.03.26
Lig
Necaxa
U.N.A.M. - Pumas
0
1
L
04.03.26
Lig
Necaxa
CF Pachuca
1
2
L
01.03.26
Lig
Necaxa
Leon
1
2
L
22.02.26
Lig
Necaxa
Toluca
0
3
L
15.02.26
Lig
Necaxa
FC Juarez
2
1
W
07.02.26
Lig
Necaxa
Atletico San Luis
4
1
W
31.01.26
Lig
Necaxa
Club America
0
2
L
17.01.26
Lig
Necaxa
Atlas
0
1
L
14.01.26
Lig
Necaxa
Monterrey
0
2
L
11.01.26
Lig
Necaxa
Santos Laguna
3
1
W
Last matches: Tigres UANL
17.07.26
Lig
Tigres UANL
Club Tijuana
1
3
L
31.05.26
CON
Tigres UANL
Toluca
1
1
D
10.05.26
Lig
Tigres UANL
Guadalajara Chivas
0
2
L
06.05.26
CON
Tigres UANL
Nashville SC
1
0
W
03.05.26
Lig
Tigres UANL
Guadalajara Chivas
3
1
W
29.04.26
CON
Tigres UANL
Nashville SC
1
0
W
25.04.26
Lig
Tigres UANL
Mazatlán
5
1
W
23.04.26
Lig
Tigres UANL
Atlas
0
0
D
16.04.26
CON
Tigres UANL
Seattle Sounders
1
3
L
11.04.26
Lig
Tigres UANL
Guadalajara Chivas
4
1
W
09.04.26
CON
Tigres UANL
Seattle Sounders
2
0
W
04.04.26
Lig
Tigres UANL
Club Tijuana
0
1
L
28.03.26
Fri
Tigres UANL
Club America
1
1
D
23.03.26
Lig
Tigres UANL
FC Juarez
1
2
L
20.03.26
CON
Tigres UANL
FC Cincinnati
5
1
W
15.03.26
Lig
Tigres UANL
Club Queretaro
0
0
D
13.03.26
CON
Tigres UANL
FC Cincinnati
0
3
L
08.03.26
Lig
Tigres UANL
Monterrey
1
0
W
05.03.26
Lig
Tigres UANL
Puebla
1
3
L
01.03.26
Lig
Tigres UANL
Club America
4
1
W
H2H: Necaxa vs Tigres UANL
18.04.26
H2H
Necaxa
Tigres UANL
1
1
D
18.10.25
H2H
Tigres UANL
Necaxa
5
3
L
12.05.25
H2H
Tigres UANL
Necaxa
2
2
D
09.05.25
H2H
Necaxa
Tigres UANL
0
0
D
02.03.25
H2H
Necaxa
Tigres UANL
1
2
L
07.07.24
H2H
Tigres UANL
Necaxa
1
0
L
21.04.24
H2H
Tigres UANL
Necaxa
5
2
L
21.08.23
H2H
Necaxa
Tigres UANL
0
3
L
04.03.23
H2H
Necaxa
Tigres UANL
0
1
L
09.10.22
H2H
Tigres UANL
Necaxa
2
0
L
28.08.22
H2H
Tigres UANL
Necaxa
0
0
D
20.04.22
H2H
Necaxa
Tigres UANL
2
0
W
04.10.21
H2H
Tigres UANL
Necaxa
0
0
D
29.01.21
H2H
Tigres UANL
Necaxa
1
1
D
25.07.20
H2H
Necaxa
Tigres UANL
0
3
L
Last matches: Necaxa
17.07.26
Lig
Necaxa
Atlante FC
2
1
W
20.06.26
Fri
Necaxa
Monarcas
1
0
W
23.04.26
Lig
Necaxa
Guadalajara Chivas
0
0
D
04.04.26
Lig
Necaxa
Mazatlán
2
1
W
21.03.26
Lig
Necaxa
Club Tijuana
3
0
W
07.03.26
Lig
Necaxa
U.N.A.M. - Pumas
0
1
L
22.02.26
Lig
Necaxa
Toluca
0
3
L
07.02.26
Lig
Necaxa
Atletico San Luis
4
1
W
17.01.26
Lig
Necaxa
Atlas
0
1
L
14.01.26
Lig
Necaxa
Monterrey
0
2
L
01.11.25
Lig
Necaxa
Santos Laguna
4
1
W
22.10.25
Lig
Necaxa
Cruz Azul
1
1
D
04.10.25
Lig
Necaxa
CF Pachuca
0
1
L
20.09.25
Lig
Necaxa
Puebla
1
0
W
13.09.25
Lig
Necaxa
FC Juarez
1
1
D
16.08.25
Lig
Necaxa
Leon
0
1
L
27.07.25
Lig
Necaxa
Club America
1
1
D
19.07.25
Lig
Necaxa
Club Queretaro
3
1
W
09.05.25
Lig
Necaxa
Tigres UANL
0
0
D
12.04.25
Lig
Necaxa
Pachuca
3
5
L
H2H at home: Necaxa
18.04.26
H2H
Necaxa
Tigres UANL
1
1
D
09.05.25
H2H
Necaxa
Tigres UANL
0
0
D
02.03.25
H2H
Necaxa
Tigres UANL
1
2
L
21.08.23
H2H
Necaxa
Tigres UANL
0
3
L
04.03.23
H2H
Necaxa
Tigres UANL
0
1
L
20.04.22
H2H
Necaxa
Tigres UANL
2
0
W
25.07.20
H2H
Necaxa
Tigres UANL
0
3
L
Last matches: Tigres UANL
17.07.26
Lig
Tigres UANL
Club Tijuana
1
3
L
31.05.26
CON
Tigres UANL
Toluca
1
1
D
10.05.26
Lig
Tigres UANL
Guadalajara Chivas
0
2
L
29.04.26
CON
Tigres UANL
Nashville SC
1
0
W
23.04.26
Lig
Tigres UANL
Atlas
0
0
D
16.04.26
CON
Tigres UANL
Seattle Sounders
1
3
L
04.04.26
Lig
Tigres UANL
Club Tijuana
0
1
L
28.03.26
Fri
Tigres UANL
Club America
1
1
D
23.03.26
Lig
Tigres UANL
FC Juarez
1
2
L
13.03.26
CON
Tigres UANL
FC Cincinnati
0
3
L
05.03.26
Lig
Tigres UANL
Puebla
1
3
L
01.03.26
Lig
Tigres UANL
Club America
4
1
W
15.02.26
Lig
Tigres UANL
Cruz Azul
1
2
L
04.02.26
CON
Tigres UANL
Forge
0
0
D
01.02.26
Lig
Tigres UANL
Leon
2
1
W
12.01.26
Lig
Tigres UANL
Atletico San Luis
2
1
W
15.12.25
Lig
Tigres UANL
Toluca
1
2
L
04.12.25
Lig
Tigres UANL
Cruz Azul
1
1
D
27.11.25
Lig
Tigres UANL
Club Tijuana
0
3
L
02.11.25
Lig
Tigres UANL
Monterrey
1
1
D
H2H away: Tigres UANL
18.04.26
H2H
Necaxa
Tigres UANL
1
1
D
09.05.25
H2H
Necaxa
Tigres UANL
0
0
D
02.03.25
H2H
Necaxa
Tigres UANL
1
2
W
21.08.23
H2H
Necaxa
Tigres UANL
0
3
W
04.03.23
H2H
Necaxa
Tigres UANL
0
1
W
20.04.22
H2H
Necaxa
Tigres UANL
2
0
L
25.07.20
H2H
Necaxa
Tigres UANL
0
3
W

Standings

Liga MX, Clausura 2026
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 17 10 6 1 34:17 17 36
L D W L D
2 17 11 3 3 33:17 16 36
L D W L D
3 17 9 6 2 31:18 13 33
W D W D W
4 17 9 4 4 25:19 6 31
L W W W L
5 17 8 6 3 28:16 12 30
L L W L L
6 17 7 5 5 16:18 -2 26
L L W D W
7 17 7 4 6 28:18 10 25
L W W D D
8 17 7 4 6 20:17 3 25
D D L W W
9 17 5 8 4 19:17 2 23
D W D W W
10 17 7 1 9 22:32 -10 22
L L W W W
11 17 4 8 5 17:21 -4 20
W D D W D
12 17 5 4 8 26:32 -6 19
W L L L D
13 17 5 3 9 22:24 -2 18
L W L D L
14 17 5 3 9 24:27 -3 18
L W L D W
15 17 5 3 9 19:25 -6 18
L D D L W
16 17 4 3 10 22:37 -15 15
L W D L L
17 17 3 4 10 13:26 -13 13
L L L L D
18 17 3 3 11 20:38 -18 12
W L L L D
Playoffs