MEXICO LIGA MX
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Estadio Victoria

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 86.3%
Odds 1.28
BTTS
Yes
Probability 88%
Odds 1.57
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 87%
Odds 1.74
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
86.3%
1.28
BTTS Yes
88%
1.57
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
87%
1.74
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
1.83
HT / FT Home / Home
-
5.50
Correct Score 2-1
-
12.00
Probability Distribution
Necaxa Win 41.5%
Draw 13.7%
Cruz Azul Win 44.8%
Expected Goals (xG)
Necaxa1.59
Cruz Azul1.68
Recent Form (Last 5)
Necaxa Necaxa
WWDLW
16 GF / 12 GA
Cruz Azul Cruz Azul
WLDWL
28 GF / 22 GA
Key Stats
1.6
Average Goals Scored
2
1.2
Average Goals Conceded
1.57
7
BTTS Yes
9
6
Over 2.5
11
5.8
Shots on Goal
7.27

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Necaxa Necaxa 10 matches
Cruz Azul Cruz Azul 14 matches
Necaxa Statistic Cruz Azul
5 Wins 6
3 Draws 3
2 Losses 5
16 Goals For 28
12 Goals Against 22
1.6 Avg Goals Scored 2
1.2 Avg Goals Conceded 1.57
7 BTTS Yes 9
7 Over 1.5 14
6 Over 2.5 11
2 Over 3.5 5
3 Clean Sheets 3
2 Failed To Score 2
5.8 Shots On Goal 7.27
15.4 Total Shots 20.64
5.6 Corners 7
53.4% Ball Possession 60.9%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

H2H Analysis

Across those 14 head-to-head meetings, Necaxa won 3 times, Cruz Azul won 8 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 11:25 from Necaxa's perspective. 8 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 8 matches, with an average of 2.57 goals per game.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (86.3%)
Predicted formations: Necaxa 3-5-2 / Cruz Azul 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Necaxa wins 3, draws 3, Cruz Azul wins 8

Lineups

Necaxa
Formation
Cruz Azul
Luis Jimenez
Luis Jimenez
Kaiky Naves
Kaiky Naves
Alexis Peña
Alexis Peña
Agustín Oliveros
Agustín Oliveros
Javier Ruiz
Javier Ruiz
Matías Espíndola
Matías Espíndola
Danny Leyva
Danny Leyva
Lorenzo Faravelli
Lorenzo Faravelli
Carlos Vargas
Carlos Vargas
Julián Carranza
Julián Carranza
Owen González
Owen González
Kevin Mier
Kevin Mier
Jeremy Márquez
Jeremy Márquez
Willer Ditta
Willer Ditta
Jesús Orozco
Jesús Orozco
Omar Campos
Omar Campos
Amaury Garcia
Amaury Garcia
Agustín Palavecino
Agustín Palavecino
José Paradela
José Paradela
Carlos Rodríguez
Carlos Rodríguez
Rogelio González
Rogelio González
Nicolás Ibáñez
Nicolás Ibáñez
Necaxa 3-5-2
Starting XI
12
Luis Jimenez
G
5
Kaiky Naves
D
4
Alexis Peña
D
3
Agustín Oliveros
D
10
Javier Ruiz
M
21
Matías Espíndola
M
6
Danny Leyva
M
8
Lorenzo Faravelli
M
88
Carlos Vargas
M
9
Julián Carranza
F
13
Owen González
F
Substitutes
1
Christopher Andrade
G
20
Francisco Méndez
D
15
Diego Ochoa
D
33
Raúl Martínez
D
17
Rogelio Cortéz Pineda
M
99
Emilio Rodriguez
M
11
Juan Torres
M
14
Mauro Zaleta
M
16
Pedro Pedraza
M
90
Juan Valencia
F
Cruz Azul 4-2-3-1
Starting XI
23
Kevin Mier
G
16
Jeremy Márquez
D
4
Willer Ditta
D
5
Jesús Orozco
D
3
Omar Campos
D
17
Amaury Garcia
M
8
Agustín Palavecino
M
20
José Paradela
M
19
Carlos Rodríguez
M
55
Rogelio González
M
7
Nicolás Ibáñez
F
Substitutes
1
Andrés Gudiño
G
12
Alan Montes
D
49
Josué Díaz
D
22
Jorge Rodarte Barragan
D
10
Andres Montaño
M
70
Ivan Silva
M
11
Osinachi Ebere
F
27
Bryan Gamboa
F
21
Gabriel Fernández
F
18
Luka Romero
F
Last matches: Necaxa
24.08.26
Lig
Necaxa
U.N.A.M. - Pumas
1
1
D
18.08.26
Lig
Necaxa
Leon
1
2
L
03.08.26
Lig
Necaxa
Toluca
1
3
L
26.07.26
Lig
Necaxa
Monterrey
2
1
W
17.07.26
Lig
Necaxa
Atlante FC
2
1
W
11.07.26
Fri
Necaxa
Leon
0
0
D
04.07.26
Fri
Necaxa
Atlas
0
0
D
01.07.26
Fri
Necaxa
Correcaminos Uat
6
3
W
20.06.26
Fri
Necaxa
Monarcas
1
0
W
27.04.26
Lig
Necaxa
Cruz Azul
1
4
L
23.04.26
Lig
Necaxa
Guadalajara Chivas
0
0
D
18.04.26
Lig
Necaxa
Tigres UANL
1
1
D
11.04.26
Lig
Necaxa
Club Queretaro
1
3
L
04.04.26
Lig
Necaxa
Mazatlán
2
1
W
21.03.26
Lig
Necaxa
Club Tijuana
3
0
W
14.03.26
Lig
Necaxa
Puebla
0
0
D
07.03.26
Lig
Necaxa
U.N.A.M. - Pumas
0
1
L
04.03.26
Lig
Necaxa
CF Pachuca
1
2
L
01.03.26
Lig
Necaxa
Leon
1
2
L
22.02.26
Lig
Necaxa
Toluca
0
3
L
Last matches: Cruz Azul
23.08.26
Lig
Cruz Azul
Atlas
0
2
L
17.08.26
Lig
Cruz Azul
Club Tijuana
1
2
L
02.08.26
Lig
Cruz Azul
Atlante FC
2
3
L
22.07.26
Lig
Cruz Azul
Puebla
2
1
W
18.07.26
Lig
Cruz Azul
Atletico San Luis
3
2
W
05.07.26
Fri
Cruz Azul
Monarcas
3
3
D
25.05.26
Lig
Cruz Azul
U.N.A.M. - Pumas
2
1
W
22.05.26
Lig
Cruz Azul
U.N.A.M. - Pumas
0
0
D
17.05.26
Lig
Cruz Azul
Guadalajara Chivas
2
1
W
14.05.26
Lig
Cruz Azul
Guadalajara Chivas
2
2
D
10.05.26
Lig
Cruz Azul
Atlas
1
0
W
03.05.26
Lig
Cruz Azul
Atlas
3
2
W
27.04.26
Lig
Cruz Azul
Necaxa
4
1
W
22.04.26
Lig
Cruz Azul
Club Queretaro
1
1
D
18.04.26
Lig
Cruz Azul
Club Tijuana
1
1
D
15.04.26
CON
Cruz Azul
Los Angeles FC
1
1
D
12.04.26
Lig
Cruz Azul
Club America
1
1
D
08.04.26
CON
Cruz Azul
Los Angeles FC
0
3
L
05.04.26
Lig
Cruz Azul
CF Pachuca
1
2
L
26.03.26
Fri
Cruz Azul
Atletico Nacional
3
0
W
H2H: Necaxa vs Cruz Azul
27.04.26
H2H
Cruz Azul
Necaxa
4
1
L
22.10.25
H2H
Necaxa
Cruz Azul
1
1
D
29.01.25
H2H
Necaxa
Cruz Azul
1
3
L
05.10.24
H2H
Cruz Azul
Necaxa
3
0
L
16.03.24
H2H
Cruz Azul
Necaxa
1
2
W
05.10.23
H2H
Necaxa
Cruz Azul
1
3
L
22.01.23
H2H
Necaxa
Cruz Azul
1
0
W
13.12.22
H2H
Cruz Azul
Necaxa
0
0
D
30.07.22
H2H
Cruz Azul
Necaxa
1
0
L
07.05.22
H2H
Cruz Azul
Necaxa
1
1
D
13.02.22
H2H
Cruz Azul
Necaxa
1
2
W
07.08.21
H2H
Necaxa
Cruz Azul
1
2
L
06.02.21
H2H
Necaxa
Cruz Azul
0
2
L
30.08.20
H2H
Cruz Azul
Necaxa
3
0
L
03.05.20
H2H
Cruz Azul
Necaxa
0
0
D
Last matches: Necaxa
18.08.26
Lig
Necaxa
Leon
1
2
L
26.07.26
Lig
Necaxa
Monterrey
2
1
W
17.07.26
Lig
Necaxa
Atlante FC
2
1
W
20.06.26
Fri
Necaxa
Monarcas
1
0
W
23.04.26
Lig
Necaxa
Guadalajara Chivas
0
0
D
18.04.26
Lig
Necaxa
Tigres UANL
1
1
D
04.04.26
Lig
Necaxa
Mazatlán
2
1
W
21.03.26
Lig
Necaxa
Club Tijuana
3
0
W
07.03.26
Lig
Necaxa
U.N.A.M. - Pumas
0
1
L
22.02.26
Lig
Necaxa
Toluca
0
3
L
07.02.26
Lig
Necaxa
Atletico San Luis
4
1
W
17.01.26
Lig
Necaxa
Atlas
0
1
L
14.01.26
Lig
Necaxa
Monterrey
0
2
L
01.11.25
Lig
Necaxa
Santos Laguna
4
1
W
22.10.25
Lig
Necaxa
Cruz Azul
1
1
D
04.10.25
Lig
Necaxa
CF Pachuca
0
1
L
20.09.25
Lig
Necaxa
Puebla
1
0
W
13.09.25
Lig
Necaxa
FC Juarez
1
1
D
16.08.25
Lig
Necaxa
Leon
0
1
L
27.07.25
Lig
Necaxa
Club America
1
1
D
H2H at home: Necaxa
22.10.25
H2H
Necaxa
Cruz Azul
1
1
D
29.01.25
H2H
Necaxa
Cruz Azul
1
3
L
05.10.23
H2H
Necaxa
Cruz Azul
1
3
L
22.01.23
H2H
Necaxa
Cruz Azul
1
0
W
07.08.21
H2H
Necaxa
Cruz Azul
1
2
L
06.02.21
H2H
Necaxa
Cruz Azul
0
2
L
Last matches: Cruz Azul
17.08.26
Lig
Cruz Azul
Club Tijuana
1
2
L
18.07.26
Lig
Cruz Azul
Atletico San Luis
3
2
W
05.07.26
Fri
Cruz Azul
Monarcas
3
3
D
25.05.26
Lig
Cruz Azul
U.N.A.M. - Pumas
2
1
W
17.05.26
Lig
Cruz Azul
Guadalajara Chivas
2
1
W
03.05.26
Lig
Cruz Azul
Atlas
3
2
W
22.04.26
Lig
Cruz Azul
Club Queretaro
1
1
D
12.04.26
Lig
Cruz Azul
Club America
1
1
D
08.04.26
CON
Cruz Azul
Los Angeles FC
0
3
L
21.03.26
Lig
Cruz Azul
Mazatlán
1
1
D
15.03.26
Lig
Cruz Azul
U.N.A.M. - Pumas
2
2
D
11.03.26
CON
Cruz Azul
Monterrey
3
2
W
04.03.26
Lig
Cruz Azul
Santos Laguna
2
1
W
01.03.26
Lig
Cruz Azul
Monterrey
2
0
W
07.02.26
Lig
Cruz Azul
Toluca
1
1
D
05.02.26
CON
Cruz Azul
Vancouver FC
3
0
W
31.01.26
Lig
Cruz Azul
FC Juarez
4
3
W
11.01.26
Lig
Cruz Azul
Leon
1
2
L
05.01.26
Fri
Cruz Azul
CDS Tampico Madero
1
2
L
07.12.25
Lig
Cruz Azul
Tigres UANL
1
1
D
H2H away: Cruz Azul
22.10.25
H2H
Necaxa
Cruz Azul
1
1
D
29.01.25
H2H
Necaxa
Cruz Azul
1
3
W
05.10.23
H2H
Necaxa
Cruz Azul
1
3
W
22.01.23
H2H
Necaxa
Cruz Azul
1
0
L
07.08.21
H2H
Necaxa
Cruz Azul
1
2
W
06.02.21
H2H
Necaxa
Cruz Azul
0
2
W
Showing odds from: 1xBet
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 2.18
Draw 3.67
Home 3.25
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 2.72
Draw 2.40
Home 3.83
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 1.5 1.23
Over 2.25 1.53
Over 2.5 1.74
Over 2.75 1.93
Over 3.0 2.22
Over 3.25 2.51
Over 3.5 2.79
Over 4.5 5.14
Under 1.5 4.35
Under 2.25 2.57
Under 2.5 2.16
Under 2.75 1.94
Under 3.0 1.70
Under 3.25 1.56
Under 3.5 1.46
Under 4.5 1.18
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 2.15
Draw 3.50
Home 3.30
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 2.62
Draw 2.30
Home 3.60
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 2.30
Draw 2.60
Home 3.40
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 0.5 1.04
Over 1.5 1.20
Over 2.5 1.70
Over 3.5 2.62
Over 4.5 5.00
Over 5.5 11.00
Over 6.5 21.00
Over 7.5 41.00
Under 0.5 13.00
Under 1.5 4.33
Under 2.5 2.10
Under 3.5 1.44
Under 4.5 1.17
Under 5.5 1.05
Under 6.5 1.01
Under 7.5 1.00
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 2.10
Draw 3.50
Home 3.21
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 2.61
Draw 2.20
Home 3.82
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 2.40
Draw 2.58
Home 3.38
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 0.5 1.00
Over 1.0 1.00
Over 1.25 1.09
Over 1.5 1.18
Over 1.75 1.24
Over 2.0 1.29
Over 2.25 1.51
Over 2.5 1.69
Over 2.75 1.87
Over 3.0 2.08
Over 3.25 2.31
Over 3.5 2.56
Over 3.75 3.05
Over 4.0 3.94
Over 4.25 4.30
Over 4.5 4.60
Over 4.75 5.70
Over 5.0 7.80
Over 5.5 8.30
Over 6.5 21.00
Over 7.5 41.00
Under 0.5 11.60
Under 1.0 9.00
Under 1.25 5.29
Under 1.5 3.88
Under 1.75 3.48
Under 2.0 3.12
Under 2.25 2.47
Under 2.5 2.11
Under 2.75 1.88
Under 3.0 1.63
Under 3.25 1.49
Under 3.5 1.40
Under 3.75 1.28
Under 4.0 1.17
Under 4.25 1.15
Under 4.5 1.13
Under 4.75 1.08
Under 5.0 1.02
Under 5.5 1.01
Under 6.5 1.01
Under 7.5 1.00
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 1.95
Draw 3.55
Home 3.40
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 2.40
Draw 2.28
Home 3.50
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 2.25
Draw 2.75
Home 3.45
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 1.5 1.16
Over 2.5 1.58
Over 2.75 1.75
Over 3.0 1.98
Over 3.25 2.23
Over 3.5 2.50
Over 4.5 4.50
Over 5.5 8.50
Under 1.5 4.60
Under 2.5 2.23
Under 2.75 2.00
Under 3.0 1.78
Under 3.25 1.61
Under 3.5 1.50
Under 4.5 1.16
Under 5.5 1.04

Standings

Liga MX: Apertura
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 5 4 1 0 10:2 8 13
W W W D W
2 5 4 0 1 8:5 3 12
W W L W W
3 5 3 1 1 8:4 4 10
W D W L W
4 5 3 1 1 8:5 3 10
W W D W L
5 5 3 1 1 9:7 2 10
W W D L W
6 5 3 1 1 8:7 1 10
L W D W W
7 5 3 0 2 12:7 5 9
L W W L W
8 5 3 0 2 7:5 2 9
W W W L L
9 5 2 2 1 8:6 2 8
D D W W L
10 5 2 1 2 6:6 0 7
L D W W L
11 5 2 1 2 7:8 -1 7
D L L W W
12 5 2 0 3 8:10 -2 6
L L L W W
13 5 1 2 2 5:7 -2 5
L D W D L
14 5 1 1 3 7:7 0 4
D L L L W
15 5 1 1 3 8:10 -2 4
W L L D L
16 5 0 3 2 5:9 -4 3
D L D D L
17 5 0 0 5 4:11 -7 0
L L L L L
18 5 0 0 5 3:15 -12 0
L L L L L
Promotion - Liga MX (Apertura - Play Offs: Quarter-finals)