MALTA PREMIER LEAGUE
--.--.---- --:--
Referee: F. Zammit
Naxxar Lions
Match Timeline
Mosta
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
22'
A. Kozic
Mosta
🟨
43'
Leo Fernandes
Mosta
🟨
49'
F. Bugeja
Naxxar Lions
🔄
60'
A. Kozic ↔ Willian
Mosta
🔄
64'
C. Gauci ↔ G. Costa Goncalves
Naxxar Lions
🔄
64'
Theo Kruger ↔ M. Micallef
Naxxar Lions
🟨
70'
A. Udoh
Mosta
🟨
74'
Pedro Cacho
Mosta
🟨
75'
F. Bugeja
Naxxar Lions
🟥
75'
F. Bugeja
Naxxar Lions
🔄
79'
Vitinho ↔ C. Kontchou
Naxxar Lions
🔄
79'
Vinicius Baiano ↔ S. Guehi
Naxxar Lions
🔄
79'
Pedro Cacho ↔ Agius
Mosta
🔄
79'
Leo Fernandes ↔ C. Oderinde
Mosta
🟨
82'
Agius
Mosta
🟨
82'
Mosta
Mosta
🔄
90+4'
N. Portelli ↔ S. Cachia
Mosta
🔄
90+4'
Giancarlo ↔ C. Diamanka
Mosta

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 78.3%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 26%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 32.7%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
78.3%
-
BTTS BTTS No
26%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
32.7%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-0
-
-
Probability Distribution
Naxxar Lions Win 78.3%
Draw 6.8%
Mosta Win 14.9%
Expected Goals (xG)
Naxxar Lions1.49
Mosta1.27
Recent Form (Last 5)
Naxxar Lions Naxxar Lions
WWDLW
41 GF / 51 GA
Mosta Mosta
WLDWL
34 GF / 58 GA
Key Stats
1.28
Average Goals Scored
1.06
1.59
Average Goals Conceded
1.81
19
BTTS Yes
16
18
Over 2.5
16
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Naxxar Lions Naxxar Lions 32 matches
Mosta Mosta 32 matches
Naxxar Lions Statistic Mosta
9 Wins 6
8 Draws 8
15 Losses 18
41 Goals For 34
51 Goals Against 58
1.28 Avg Goals Scored 1.06
1.59 Avg Goals Conceded 1.81
19 BTTS Yes 16
25 Over 1.5 23
18 Over 2.5 16
11 Over 3.5 11
5 Clean Sheets 5
10 Failed To Score 12
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

In knockout conditions, this fixture pairs two sides with a fairly similar football identity, which should make the margins especially important. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Naxxar Lions hold an advantage after winning the first leg 5-0, so Mosta now have a 5-goal deficit to overturn. Naxxar Lions have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Mosta having the stronger overall control. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Mosta. Mosta carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 6 with 10 points while Naxxar Lions sit 6 on 20, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely.

Naxxar Lions Analysis

Naxxar Lions enter this tie with a season profile built on 20 points from 16 matches, placing them 6 in their league. With 5 wins, 5 draws, and 6 losses plus a goal ratio of 23:26, they bring poor form over their recent run into this tie. Going forward they rely on Vitinho (12 goals), G. Costa Goncalves (6 goals), Joao Moura (5 goals), while defensively they have been fairly stable. At home, the return of 3 wins, 3 draws, and 1 losses suggests a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader football identity still points toward a more cautious and defensive approach.

Mosta Analysis

Ahead of this knockout test, Mosta arrive from a league campaign that has them 6 with 10 points after 16 matches. With 2 wins, 4 draws, and 10 losses plus a goal ratio of 14:32, they bring poor form over their recent run into this tie. Going forward they rely on P. Emmanuel (12 goals), Leo Fernandes (4 goals), Giancarlo (3 goals), while defensively they have been fairly stable. Away from home, their split of 0 wins, 2 draws, and 6 losses fits a weak split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically they continue to show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 11 head-to-head meetings, Naxxar Lions won 5 times, Mosta won 4 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 16:12 from Naxxar Lions's perspective. 5 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 3 matches, with an average of 2.55 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (93.2%)
H2H summary: Naxxar Lions wins 5, draws 2, Mosta wins 4

Lineups

Naxxar Lions
Formation
Mosta
M. Debono
M. Debono
Theo Kruger
Theo Kruger
Gustavo Felipe
Gustavo Felipe
N. Pace Cocks
N. Pace Cocks
N. Pahama
N. Pahama
E. Farias
E. Farias
Vitinho
Vitinho
C. Gauci
C. Gauci
Rosiel
Rosiel
Vinicius Baiano
Vinicius Baiano
Joao Moura
Joao Moura
A. Udoh
A. Udoh
M. Bolanos
M. Bolanos
N. Portelli
N. Portelli
Giancarlo
Giancarlo
Zammit K. II
Zammit K. II
A. Kozic
A. Kozic
P. Emmanuel
P. Emmanuel
Pedro Cacho
Pedro Cacho
S. Zibo
S. Zibo
J. Vassallo
J. Vassallo
Leo Fernandes
Leo Fernandes
Naxxar Lions 4-4-2 (estimated)
Starting XI
1
M. Debono
4
Theo Kruger
↓ 64'
5
Gustavo Felipe
8
N. Pace Cocks
9
N. Pahama
10
E. Farias
11
Vitinho
↓ 79'
14
C. Gauci
↓ 64'
19
Rosiel
24
Vinicius Baiano
↓ 79'
33
Joao Moura
Substitutes
80
J. Azzopardi
99
A. Vella
7
M. Fenech
13
S. Bugeja
17
F. Bugeja
🟨 49' 🟨 75' 🟥 75'
20
G. Costa Goncalves
↑ 64'
21
M. Micallef
↑ 64'
22
C. Kontchou
↑ 79'
25
O. Portelli
26
J. Borg
30
S. Guehi
↑ 79'
Mosta 4-4-2 (estimated)
Starting XI
22
A. Udoh
🟨 70'
3
M. Bolanos
7
N. Portelli
↓ 90+4'
10
Giancarlo
↓ 90+4'
11
Zammit K. II
23
A. Kozic
⚽ 22' ↓ 60'
26
P. Emmanuel
41
Pedro Cacho
↓ 79' 🟨 74'
42
S. Zibo
74
J. Vassallo
96
Leo Fernandes
↓ 79' 🟨 43'
Substitutes
99
J. Farrugia
4
K. Farrugia
5
S. Cachia
↑ 90+4'
9
C. Diamanka
↑ 90+4'
13
U. Luke
20
R. Caruana
21
Agius
↑ 79' 🟨 82'
29
C. Oderinde
↑ 79'
31
Willian
↑ 60'
33
B. Farrugia
94
S. Vassallo
Last matches: Naxxar Lions
02.05.26
Pre
Naxxar Lions
Marsaxlokk
2
3
L
26.04.26
Pre
Naxxar Lions
Gzira United
0
0
D
19.04.26
Pre
Naxxar Lions
Hamrun Spartans
0
3
L
15.04.26
Pre
Naxxar Lions
Valletta FC
1
1
D
11.04.26
Pre
Naxxar Lions
Floriana
0
1
L
14.03.26
Pre
Naxxar Lions
Hibernians
2
1
W
08.03.26
Pre
Naxxar Lions
Marsaxlokk
1
1
D
01.03.26
Pre
Naxxar Lions
Birkirkara
0
0
D
21.02.26
Pre
Naxxar Lions
Tarxien Rainbows
2
1
W
17.02.26
Pre
Naxxar Lions
Gzira United
4
2
W
14.02.26
Pre
Naxxar Lions
Sliema Wanderers
1
1
D
07.02.26
Pre
Naxxar Lions
Hamrun Spartans
0
4
L
04.02.26
Pre
Naxxar Lions
Mosta
5
0
W
01.02.26
Pre
Naxxar Lions
Valletta FC
2
4
L
23.01.26
Pre
Naxxar Lions
Zabbar St. Patrick
2
1
W
17.01.26
Pre
Naxxar Lions
Floriana
1
3
L
11.01.26
Pre
Naxxar Lions
Tarxien Rainbows
1
0
W
08.01.26
Pre
Naxxar Lions
Zabbar St. Patrick
2
1
W
19.12.25
Pre
Naxxar Lions
Mosta
3
2
W
11.12.25
Pre
Naxxar Lions
Gzira United
1
3
L
Last matches: Mosta
30.04.26
Pre
Mosta
Birkirkara
1
1
D
24.04.26
Pre
Mosta
Hibernians
0
2
L
19.04.26
Pre
Mosta
Sliema Wanderers
2
2
D
15.04.26
Pre
Mosta
Zabbar St. Patrick
2
1
W
11.04.26
Pre
Mosta
Tarxien Rainbows
2
2
D
15.03.26
Pre
Mosta
Hamrun Spartans
2
1
W
07.03.26
Pre
Mosta
Zabbar St. Patrick
3
5
L
28.02.26
Pre
Mosta
Marsaxlokk
1
2
L
22.02.26
Pre
Mosta
Gzira United
0
1
L
18.02.26
Pre
Mosta
Tarxien Rainbows
0
1
L
14.02.26
Pre
Mosta
Birkirkara
0
0
D
08.02.26
Pre
Mosta
Sliema Wanderers
0
1
L
04.02.26
Pre
Mosta
Naxxar Lions
0
5
L
31.01.26
Pre
Mosta
Hibernians
0
1
L
25.01.26
Pre
Mosta
Floriana
1
2
L
16.01.26
Pre
Mosta
Valletta FC
0
5
L
11.01.26
Pre
Mosta
Hibernians
2
0
W
08.01.26
Pre
Mosta
Tarxien Rainbows
2
2
D
19.12.25
Pre
Mosta
Naxxar Lions
2
3
L
12.12.25
Pre
Mosta
Zabbar St. Patrick
1
1
D
H2H: Naxxar Lions vs Mosta
10.05.26
H2H
Naxxar Lions
Mosta
0
1
L
04.02.26
H2H
Naxxar Lions
Mosta
5
0
W
19.12.25
H2H
Mosta
Naxxar Lions
2
3
W
29.10.25
H2H
Mosta
Naxxar Lions
3
0
L
02.02.25
H2H
Mosta
Naxxar Lions
1
0
L
23.08.24
H2H
Naxxar Lions
Mosta
2
1
W
03.05.24
H2H
Mosta
Naxxar Lions
2
0
L
20.01.24
H2H
Naxxar Lions
Mosta
0
0
D
27.08.21
H2H
Mosta
Naxxar Lions
2
2
D
15.04.18
H2H
Mosta
Naxxar Lions
0
2
W
25.11.17
H2H
Naxxar Lions
Mosta
2
0
W
Last matches: Naxxar Lions
15.04.26
Pre
Naxxar Lions
Valletta FC
1
1
D
11.04.26
Pre
Naxxar Lions
Floriana
0
1
L
14.03.26
Pre
Naxxar Lions
Hibernians
2
1
W
01.03.26
Pre
Naxxar Lions
Birkirkara
0
0
D
17.02.26
Pre
Naxxar Lions
Gzira United
4
2
W
14.02.26
Pre
Naxxar Lions
Sliema Wanderers
1
1
D
04.02.26
Pre
Naxxar Lions
Mosta
5
0
W
23.01.26
Pre
Naxxar Lions
Zabbar St. Patrick
2
1
W
11.01.26
Pre
Naxxar Lions
Tarxien Rainbows
1
0
W
26.10.25
Pre
Naxxar Lions
Hamrun Spartans
1
1
D
05.10.25
Pre
Naxxar Lions
Valletta FC
0
1
L
16.09.25
Pre
Naxxar Lions
Tarxien Rainbows
2
3
L
24.08.25
Pre
Naxxar Lions
Marsaxlokk
0
1
L
17.08.25
Pre
Naxxar Lions
Floriana
1
3
L
H2H at home: Naxxar Lions
10.05.26
H2H
Naxxar Lions
Mosta
0
1
L
04.02.26
H2H
Naxxar Lions
Mosta
5
0
W
23.08.24
H2H
Naxxar Lions
Mosta
2
1
W
20.01.24
H2H
Naxxar Lions
Mosta
0
0
D
25.11.17
H2H
Naxxar Lions
Mosta
2
0
W
Last matches: Mosta
30.04.26
Pre
Mosta
Birkirkara
1
1
D
24.04.26
Pre
Mosta
Hibernians
0
2
L
11.04.26
Pre
Mosta
Tarxien Rainbows
2
2
D
07.03.26
Pre
Mosta
Zabbar St. Patrick
3
5
L
22.02.26
Pre
Mosta
Gzira United
0
1
L
04.02.26
Pre
Mosta
Naxxar Lions
0
5
L
31.01.26
Pre
Mosta
Hibernians
0
1
L
25.01.26
Pre
Mosta
Floriana
1
2
L
11.01.26
Pre
Mosta
Hibernians
2
0
W
24.11.25
Pre
Mosta
Gzira United
0
1
L
02.11.25
Pre
Mosta
Tarxien Rainbows
1
0
W
24.09.25
Pre
Mosta
Valletta FC
1
4
L
21.09.25
Pre
Mosta
Birkirkara
0
2
L
13.09.25
Pre
Mosta
Hamrun Spartans
0
2
L
22.08.25
Pre
Mosta
Sliema Wanderers
1
0
W
17.08.25
Pre
Mosta
Marsaxlokk
1
3
L
H2H away: Mosta
10.05.26
H2H
Naxxar Lions
Mosta
0
1
W
04.02.26
H2H
Naxxar Lions
Mosta
5
0
L
23.08.24
H2H
Naxxar Lions
Mosta
2
1
L
20.01.24
H2H
Naxxar Lions
Mosta
0
0
D
25.11.17
H2H
Naxxar Lions
Mosta
2
0
L

Standings

Premier League , Opening Round
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 11 7 2 2 17:11 6 23
W W W L W
2 11 6 4 1 15:6 9 22
W L L W W
3 11 6 4 1 16:8 8 22
L L W L L
4 11 5 4 2 16:14 2 19
L D D W D
5 11 5 3 3 14:11 3 18
L W W W W
6 11 4 4 3 12:8 4 16
D D D L W
7 11 4 3 4 20:18 2 15
L W D L D
8 11 3 4 4 14:18 -4 13
L D L W L
9
Mosta Away
11 3 2 6 13:19 -6 11
W D L D W
10 11 2 4 5 11:14 -3 10
W L W D D
11 11 1 2 8 10:18 -8 5
L L D L D
12 11 1 2 8 8:21 -13 5
L W W D D
Championship round
Relegation Round