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BRAZIL › SERIE B
11.10.2026 20:30
Estádio dos Aflitos
Referee: Fernando Antonio Mendes de Salles Nascimento Filho, Brazil
Nautico Recife
Match Timeline
Vila Nova
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
⚽
22'
Everton Galdino
Vila Nova
🟨
35'
Jean Carlos
Nautico Recife
🟨
37'
João Vieira
Vila Nova
🟨
38'
Vinícius
Nautico Recife
⚽
43'
Janderson
Vila Nova
🔄
46'
Samuel Felix ↔ Luiz Felipe
Nautico Recife
🔄
46'
Dudu ↔ Higor Meritao
Vila Nova
🟨
54'
Igor Fernandes
Nautico Recife
🔄
57'
Gustavo Henrique ↔ Ryan Carlos
Nautico Recife
🔄
57'
Kaua Maranhao ↔ Victor Andrade
Nautico Recife
🟨
60'
Higor Meritão
Vila Nova
🔄
66'
Arnaldo ↔ Reginaldo
Nautico Recife
🟨
69'
Douglas Mendes
Vila Nova
🔄
70'
Douglas Mendes ↔ Tiago Pagnussat
Vila Nova
🔄
70'
Joao Vieira ↔ Willian Maranhao
Vila Nova
🟨
72'
Willian Maranhão
Vila Nova
🔄
75'
Paulo Sergio ↔ Luiz Claudio
Nautico Recife
🔄
80'
Everton Galdino ↔ Emerson Urso
Vila Nova
🔄
90+1'
Marquinhos Gabriel ↔ Nathan Camargo
Vila Nova

Nautico Recife vs Vila Nova Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 96.4%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 67.1%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 58.6%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
96.4%
- ▥
BTTS Yes
67.1%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
58.6%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Nautico Recife Win 50.4%
Draw 3.7%
Vila Nova Win 46%
Expected Goals (xG)
Nautico Recife1.12
Vila Nova1.33
Recent Form (Last 5)
Nautico Recife Nautico Recife
L D W L D
7 GF / 10 GA
Vila Nova Vila Nova
D W W W D
5 GF / 1 GA
Key Stats
1.22
Average Goals Scored
1.38
1.25
Average Goals Conceded
0.97
15
BTTS Yes
12
13
Over 2.5
11
4.5
Shots on Goal
4.22

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Nautico Recife Nautico Recife 32 matches
Vila Nova Vila Nova 32 matches
Nautico Recife Statistic Vila Nova
11 Wins 17
9 Draws 7
12 Losses 8
39 Goals For 44
40 Goals Against 31
1.22 Avg Goals Scored 1.38
1.25 Avg Goals Conceded 0.97
15 BTTS Yes 12
21 Over 1.5 21
13 Over 2.5 11
6 Over 3.5 5
8 Clean Sheets 13
11 Failed To Score 9
4.5 Shots On Goal 4.22
15.75 Total Shots 13.59
5.91 Corners 5
57.4% Ball Possession 51%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From the opening view, this looks like a meeting between teams arriving with different levels of stability, reinforced by two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. Vila Nova look sharper on recent form, and that momentum could be important in key phases of the match. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Vila Nova. Vila Nova carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 1 with 57 points while Nautico Recife sit 13 on 42, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely.

Nautico Recife Analysis

So far, Nautico Recife have built a campaign that leaves them 13 in the table on 42 points from 31 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 11 wins, 9 draws, and 11 losses, while the 39:38 goal ratio supports the view of poor form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on Vinícius (7 goals), Jean Carlos (3 goals), Júnior Todinho (3 goals), with creative support from Vinícius (3 assists), Jean Carlos (3 assists), Wenderson (2 assists), and defensively they have been fairly stable. At home, they have returned 8 wins, 3 draws, and 4 losses, a split that suggests a very strong split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

Vila Nova Analysis

Vila Nova approach this game with the confidence of a side sitting 1 on 57 points after 31 outings. The return of 17 wins, 6 draws, and 8 defeats, together with goals at 44:31, reflects very strong form and are on a winning streak. Much of their attacking edge comes through André Luís (6 goals), Janderson (3 goals), João Vieira (3 goals), with creative support from Marquinhos Gabriel (7 assists), Janderson (6 assists), João Vieira (4 assists), while their defending has remained fairly stable. Away from home, they have managed 5 wins, 4 draws, and 7 losses, which underlines a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In stylistic terms they continue to show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 12 head-to-head meetings, Nautico Recife won 7 times, Vila Nova won 5 times, while 0 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 18:14 from Nautico Recife's perspective. 5 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 5 matches, with an average of 2.67 goals per game.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (96.4%)
Predicted formations: Nautico Recife 4-2-3-1 / Vila Nova 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Nautico Recife wins 7, draws 0, Vila Nova wins 5

Standings

Serie B
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 34 18 8 8 48:33 15 62
D W D W W
2 34 17 10 7 61:30 31 61
D W W W D
3 34 17 10 7 41:23 18 61
D D W W W
4 34 16 12 6 41:29 12 60
W D W D D
5 35 17 8 10 36:30 6 59
L W W L W
6 34 14 12 8 42:32 10 54
D D L W W
7 35 14 12 9 47:38 9 54
W L D W W
8 34 15 7 12 51:48 3 52
L D W L W
9 35 14 9 12 45:46 -1 51
W L L L L
10 34 14 7 13 34:40 -6 49
D W W L L
11 34 11 14 9 32:27 5 47
L L D W L
12 34 12 10 12 46:37 9 46
L D L W D
13 34 12 8 14 38:38 0 44
W W W L W
14 35 10 14 11 40:40 0 44
L D D L L
15 34 11 10 13 39:42 -3 43
D L L D W
16 34 11 10 13 37:42 -5 43
D L W W D
17 34 10 7 17 33:43 -10 37
D W W L L
18 34 8 8 18 43:49 -6 32
W D L L L
19 34 5 5 24 22:54 -32 20
W L L L L
20 34 3 5 26 19:74 -55 14
D L L L L
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