BRAZIL SERIE B
28.08.2026 23:30
Estádio dos Aflitos
Referee: Y. Ferreira
Nautico Recife
Match Timeline
Athletic Club
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
-5'
Gastón Guruceaga
Nautico Recife
6'
D. Vera · Assist: Max
Athletic Club
🟨
44'
Derek Freitas
Nautico Recife
🔄
46'
Ryan Carlos ↔ Betao
Nautico Recife
🔄
57'
J. Pool ↔ Felipe Negrucci
Athletic Club
🔄
57'
D. Vera ↔ Assis
Athletic Club
🔄
58'
Samuel Felix ↔ Vinicius
Nautico Recife
🔄
58'
Kauan Maranhao ↔ Junior Todinho
Nautico Recife
🟥
59'
Joao Miguel
Athletic Club
🔄
62'
W. Aponza ↔ Felipe Vieira
Athletic Club
🟨
63'
Douglas Pele
Athletic Club
🔄
70'
Arnaldo ↔ Reginaldo
Nautico Recife
🔄
70'
Max ↔ Marcelo Henrique
Athletic Club
🔄
70'
Yago Santos ↔ Jota
Athletic Club
71'
Derek
Nautico Recife
🔄
80'
Derek ↔ Luiz Claudio
Nautico Recife
90'
Luiz Claudio · Assist: Betao
Nautico Recife

Nautico Recife vs Athletic Club Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away or Draw
Probability 61.5%
Odds 1.80
BTTS
Yes
Probability 71.2%
Odds 1.91
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 51.1%
Odds 1.67
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away or Draw
61.5%
1.80
BTTS Yes
71.2%
1.91
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
51.1%
1.67
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
86.6%
1.23
HT / FT Draw / Draw
-
4.75
Correct Score 1-1
-
6.00
Probability Distribution
Nautico Recife Win 38.5%
Draw 19.7%
Athletic Club Win 41.7%
Expected Goals (xG)
Nautico Recife1.12
Athletic Club1.08
Recent Form (Last 5)
Nautico Recife Nautico Recife
WWDLW
28 GF / 27 GA
Athletic Club Athletic Club
WLDWL
25 GF / 25 GA
Key Stats
1.17
Average Goals Scored
1.04
1.13
Average Goals Conceded
1.04
10
BTTS Yes
14
8
Over 2.5
7
4.63
Shots on Goal
3.17

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Nautico Recife Nautico Recife 24 matches
Athletic Club Athletic Club 24 matches
Nautico Recife Statistic Athletic Club
8 Wins 8
7 Draws 10
9 Losses 6
28 Goals For 25
27 Goals Against 25
1.17 Avg Goals Scored 1.04
1.13 Avg Goals Conceded 1.04
10 BTTS Yes 14
14 Over 1.5 17
8 Over 2.5 7
4 Over 3.5 3
7 Clean Sheets 6
9 Failed To Score 7
4.63 Shots On Goal 3.17
16.08 Total Shots 11.46
5.83 Corners 4.42
57.8% Ball Possession 44.3%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

Looking at the broader profile of both teams, this encounter highlights two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Nautico Recife expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Athletic Club in 3-4-3, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Athletic Club having the stronger overall control. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Athletic Club. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected.

Nautico Recife Analysis

Nautico Recife approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 15 with 30 points from 23 matches. Across the season they have posted 8 wins, 6 draws, and 9 defeats, and the 27:26 goal record continues to suggest mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on Vinícius (4 goals), Kaua Almeida da Costa (3 goals), Dodô (2 goals), with creative support from Vinícius (2 assists), Jean Carlos (2 assists), Wenderson (2 assists), while at the back they have been fairly stable. At home, they have returned 5 wins, 2 draws, and 4 losses, which indicates a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they tend to play with balanced attacking football.

Athletic Club Analysis

Athletic Club sit 8 with 34 points after 22 league matches. The record of 8 wins, 10 draws, and 4 defeats, together with a 24:19 goal balance, points toward good form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through Ronaldo Tavares (5 goals), Ian Luccas (4 goals), Max (2 goals), with creative support from Ian Luccas (2 assists), Max (2 assists), Lucas Belezi (2 assists), while at the back they have looked very solid. Away from home, the record of 3 wins, 6 draws, and 2 losses points toward a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 3 head-to-head meetings, Nautico Recife won 2 times, Athletic Club won 0 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 5:3 from Nautico Recife's perspective. 2 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 2 matches, with an average of 2.67 goals per game.

1X2: Away or Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (80.3%)
Predicted formations: Nautico Recife 4-2-3-1 / Athletic Club 3-4-3
H2H summary: Nautico Recife wins 2, draws 1, Athletic Club wins 0

Standings

Serie B
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 28 14 8 6 48:25 23 50
D W W W W
2 28 14 8 6 30:17 13 50
L W D D W
3 28 13 9 6 31:23 8 48
D W W D W
4 27 14 5 8 39:30 9 47
W L W D W
5 28 13 8 7 28:25 3 47
L L W L L
6 28 12 10 6 36:26 10 46
W W D W W
7 27 12 7 8 36:33 3 43
W W D D L
8 27 12 6 9 40:39 1 42
L W W L W
9 27 10 11 6 36:26 10 41
W L L W L
10 28 10 10 8 33:30 3 40
W L W L L
11 28 9 13 6 27:22 5 40
D W L W D
12 27 10 7 10 32:30 2 37
L W W D W
13 27 10 6 11 25:33 -8 36
L L W D L
14 27 9 8 10 37:31 6 35
L W L D D
15 28 8 8 12 29:36 -7 32
D L W L W
16 27 8 7 12 30:32 -2 31
L L L L D
17 27 8 5 14 28:35 -7 29
L L L W W
18 27 6 7 14 32:39 -7 25
W L D L D
19 27 4 5 18 21:46 -25 17
W L W L L
20 27 2 4 21 16:56 -40 10
L L L L L
Promotion
Promotion Play-offs
Relegation