🇺🇸 USA MAJOR LEAGUE SOCCER
30.08.2026 00:30
Geodis Park
Referee: A. Villarreal
Nashville SC
Match Timeline
FC Cincinnati
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
43'
S. Surridge · Assist: C. Espinoza
Nashville SC
🟨
44'
Obinna Nwobodo
FC Cincinnati
🔄
46'
K. Mboma ↔ A. Jabbari
FC Cincinnati
🔄
46'
O. Nwobodo ↔ B. J. Ramirez Leon
FC Cincinnati
🟨
49'
Andy Najar
Nashville SC
53'
H. Mukhtar · Assist: E. Saad
Nashville SC
🔄
62'
P. Yazbek ↔ M. Corcoran
Nashville SC
🔄
66'
S. Gidi ↔ K. Smith
FC Cincinnati
🟨
70'
Jeisson Palacios
Nashville SC
🔄
73'
G. Valenzuela ↔ T. Barlow
FC Cincinnati
🟨
79'
Edvard Tagseth
Nashville SC
🔄
87'
A. Najar ↔ D. Lovitz
Nashville SC
🔄
87'
E. Tagseth ↔ B. Acosta
Nashville SC
🔄
87'
C. Espinoza ↔ S. Mohammed
Nashville SC
🔄
87'
E. Echenique ↔ A. Powell
FC Cincinnati
🟨
89'
Bryan Ramirez
FC Cincinnati
89'
B. Acosta · Assist: H. Mukhtar
Nashville SC
🔄
90+5'
H. Mukhtar ↔ A. Qasem
Nashville SC
🔄
90+4'
E. Saad ↔ A. Muyl
Nashville SC
🔄
90+1'
Evander ↔ T. Anunga
FC Cincinnati
90'
A. Qasem · Assist: R. Baker-Whiting
Nashville SC

Nashville SC vs FC Cincinnati Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 67.6%
Odds 1.85
BTTS
Yes
Probability 86%
Odds 1.50
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 72%
Odds 1.48
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
67.6%
1.85
BTTS Yes
86%
1.50
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
72%
1.48
Corners O/U Under 11.5 Corners
88.1%
1.32
HT / FT Home / Home
-
2.75
Correct Score 2-1
-
7.00
Probability Distribution
Nashville SC Win 67.6%
Draw 6.3%
FC Cincinnati Win 26.1%
Expected Goals (xG)
Nashville SC1.85
FC Cincinnati1.79
Recent Form (Last 5)
Nashville SC Nashville SC
WWDLW
59 GF / 25 GA
FC Cincinnati FC Cincinnati
WLDWL
74 GF / 58 GA
Key Stats
1.79
Average Goals Scored
2.47
0.76
Average Goals Conceded
1.93
14
BTTS Yes
22
16
Over 2.5
20
4.34
Shots on Goal
5.72

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Nashville SC Nashville SC 33 matches
FC Cincinnati FC Cincinnati 30 matches
Nashville SC Statistic FC Cincinnati
20 Wins 13
8 Draws 9
5 Losses 8
59 Goals For 74
25 Goals Against 58
1.79 Avg Goals Scored 2.47
0.76 Avg Goals Conceded 1.93
14 BTTS Yes 22
19 Over 1.5 27
16 Over 2.5 20
12 Over 3.5 17
15 Clean Sheets 6
8 Failed To Score 2
4.34 Shots On Goal 5.72
11.21 Total Shots 13.2
4.97 Corners 4.4
52.2% Ball Possession 48.4%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Nashville SC expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and FC Cincinnati in 3-5-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward FC Cincinnati having the stronger overall control. Nashville SC arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 1 with 46 points compared to FC Cincinnati in 5 on 30, which underlines the gap in season consistency. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors FC Cincinnati. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely.

Nashville SC Analysis

Nashville SC come into this fixture from a strong position, holding 1 place with 46 points after 20 matches. They have recorded 14 wins, 4 draws, and 2 losses, with a 40:15 goal return and good form over their recent run. In attack they lean heavily on H. Mukhtar (4 goals), Warren Madrigal (3 goals), S. Surridge (3 goals), with creative support from H. Mukhtar (4 assists), Cristian Espinoza (4 assists), A. Najar (2 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. At home, the split of 9 wins, 1 draws, and 0 losses supports the view of a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their football identity still points toward balanced attacking football.

FC Cincinnati Analysis

FC Cincinnati approach this game with the confidence of a side sitting 5 on 30 points after 20 outings. They have recorded 8 wins, 6 draws, and 6 losses, with a 48:46 goal return and good form over their recent run. In attack they lean heavily on Evander (10 goals), Kévin Denkey (9 goals), Tom Barlow (4 goals), with creative support from Evander (7 assists), Pavel Bucha (4 assists), Ender Echenique (3 assists), while defensively they have looked quite vulnerable. Away from home, the split of 1 wins, 5 draws, and 4 losses supports the view of a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their football identity still points toward balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 12 head-to-head meetings, Nashville SC won 4 times, FC Cincinnati won 4 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 26:20 from Nashville SC's perspective. 8 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 9 matches, with an average of 3.83 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (93.7%)
Predicted formations: Nashville SC 4-2-3-1 / FC Cincinnati 3-5-2
Missing players: Nashville SC 2, FC Cincinnati 0
H2H summary: Nashville SC wins 4, draws 4, FC Cincinnati wins 4

Standings

Eastern Conference
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 26 17 6 3 53:21 32 57
W D L D W
2 26 14 4 8 45:33 12 46
W W W L W
3 25 12 9 4 61:46 15 45
D D D W L
4 26 12 7 7 47:37 10 43
W D W D W
5 25 11 6 8 45:38 7 39
L L D D D
6 26 10 6 10 50:42 8 36
W W W W W
7 26 10 4 12 46:60 -14 34
L W W W D
8 26 9 6 11 34:48 -14 33
W W L D L
9 25 8 9 8 54:61 -7 33
D D L L D
10 26 8 8 10 39:34 5 32
L W L D D
11 25 6 11 8 31:39 -8 29
L D W D L
12 26 6 11 9 39:49 -10 29
L L W D D
13 26 7 5 14 37:42 -5 26
W L L W L
14 26 7 5 14 30:43 -13 26
W D L D L
15 26 5 6 15 31:53 -22 21
L L L L L
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/8-finals)
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/16-finals)