🇺🇸 USA MAJOR LEAGUE SOCCER
--.--.---- --:--
Geodis Park
Referee: Armando Villarrea, USA
Nashville SC
Match Timeline
FC Cincinnati
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
43'
S. Surridge · Assist: C. Espinoza
Nashville SC
🟨
44'
O. Nwobodo
FC Cincinnati
🔄
46'
K. Mboma ↔ A. Jabbari
FC Cincinnati
🔄
46'
O. Nwobodo ↔ B. J. Ramirez Leon
FC Cincinnati
🟨
49'
A. Najar
Nashville SC
53'
H. Mukhtar · Assist: E. Saad
Nashville SC
🔄
62'
P. Yazbek ↔ M. Corcoran
Nashville SC
🔄
66'
S. Gidi ↔ K. Smith
FC Cincinnati
🟨
70'
J. Palacios
Nashville SC
🔄
73'
G. Valenzuela ↔ T. Barlow
FC Cincinnati
🟨
79'
E. Tagseth
Nashville SC
🔄
87'
C. Espinoza ↔ S. Mohammed
Nashville SC
🔄
87'
E. Tagseth ↔ B. Acosta
Nashville SC
🔄
87'
A. Najar ↔ D. Lovitz
Nashville SC
🔄
87'
E. Echenique ↔ A. Powell
FC Cincinnati
🟨
89'
B. J. Ramirez Leon
FC Cincinnati
89'
B. Acosta · Assist: H. Mukhtar
Nashville SC
🔄
90+1'
Evander ↔ T. Anunga
FC Cincinnati
🔄
90+4'
E. Saad ↔ A. Muyl
Nashville SC
🔄
90+5'
H. Mukhtar ↔ A. Qasem
Nashville SC
90+6'
A. Qasem · Assist: R. Baker-Whiting
Nashville SC

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 67.6%
Odds 1.85
BTTS
Yes
Probability 86%
Odds 1.50
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 72%
Odds 1.48
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
67.6%
1.85
BTTS Yes
86%
1.50
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
72%
1.48
Corners O/U Under 11.5 Corners
88.1%
1.32
HT / FT Home / Home
-
2.75
Correct Score 2-1
-
7.00
Probability Distribution
Nashville SC Win 67.6%
Draw 6.3%
FC Cincinnati Win 26.1%
Expected Goals (xG)
Nashville SC1.85
FC Cincinnati1.79
Recent Form (Last 5)
Nashville SC Nashville SC
WWDLW
59 GF / 25 GA
FC Cincinnati FC Cincinnati
WLDWL
74 GF / 58 GA
Key Stats
1.79
Average Goals Scored
2.47
0.76
Average Goals Conceded
1.93
14
BTTS Yes
22
16
Over 2.5
20
3.96
Shots on Goal
5.46

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Nashville SC Nashville SC 33 matches
FC Cincinnati FC Cincinnati 30 matches
Nashville SC Statistic FC Cincinnati
20 Wins 13
8 Draws 9
5 Losses 8
59 Goals For 74
25 Goals Against 58
1.79 Avg Goals Scored 2.47
0.76 Avg Goals Conceded 1.93
14 BTTS Yes 22
19 Over 1.5 27
16 Over 2.5 20
12 Over 3.5 17
15 Clean Sheets 6
8 Failed To Score 2
3.96 Shots On Goal 5.46
10.5 Total Shots 12.58
4.5 Corners 4
50.4% Ball Possession 45.5%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Nashville SC expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and FC Cincinnati in 3-5-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward FC Cincinnati having the stronger overall control. Nashville SC arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 1 with 46 points compared to FC Cincinnati in 5 on 30, which underlines the gap in season consistency. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors FC Cincinnati. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely.

Nashville SC Analysis

Nashville SC come into this fixture from a strong position, holding 1 place with 46 points after 20 matches. They have recorded 14 wins, 4 draws, and 2 losses, with a 40:15 goal return and good form over their recent run. In attack they lean heavily on H. Mukhtar (4 goals), Warren Madrigal (3 goals), S. Surridge (3 goals), with creative support from H. Mukhtar (4 assists), Cristian Espinoza (4 assists), A. Najar (2 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. At home, the split of 9 wins, 1 draws, and 0 losses supports the view of a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their football identity still points toward balanced attacking football.

FC Cincinnati Analysis

FC Cincinnati approach this game with the confidence of a side sitting 5 on 30 points after 20 outings. They have recorded 8 wins, 6 draws, and 6 losses, with a 48:46 goal return and good form over their recent run. In attack they lean heavily on Evander (10 goals), Kévin Denkey (9 goals), Tom Barlow (4 goals), with creative support from Evander (7 assists), Pavel Bucha (4 assists), Ender Echenique (3 assists), while defensively they have looked quite vulnerable. Away from home, the split of 1 wins, 5 draws, and 4 losses supports the view of a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their football identity still points toward balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 12 head-to-head meetings, Nashville SC won 4 times, FC Cincinnati won 4 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 26:20 from Nashville SC's perspective. 8 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 9 matches, with an average of 3.83 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (93.7%)
Predicted formations: Nashville SC 4-2-3-1 / FC Cincinnati 3-5-2
Missing players: Nashville SC 2, FC Cincinnati 0
H2H summary: Nashville SC wins 4, draws 4, FC Cincinnati wins 4
Stats
Nashville SC Nashville SC
FC Cincinnati FC Cincinnati
Shots on Goal
7
Shots on Goal
8
Shots off Goal
4
Shots off Goal
5
Blocked Shots
7
Blocked Shots
1
5 Corner Kicks 4
14 Fouls 9
4 Offsides 0
52% Ball Possession 48%
18 Total Shots 13
7 Shots on Goal 8
4 Shots off Goal 5
7 Blocked Shots 1
11 Shots insidebox 8
7 Shots outsidebox 5
6 Goalkeeper Saves 4
390 Total passes 362
345 Passes accurate 315
2.01 expected_goals 1.59
🟨 3 Yellow Cards 2 🟨
🟥 0 Red Cards 0 🟥

Lineups

Nashville SC
Formation
FC Cincinnati
Brian Schwake
Brian Schwake
Andy Najar
Andy Najar
Jeisson Palacios
Jeisson Palacios
Maxwell Woledzi
Maxwell Woledzi
Reed Baker-Whiting
🎯
Reed Baker-Whiting
Cristian Espinoza
🎯
Cristian Espinoza
Patrick Yazbek
Patrick Yazbek
Edvard Tagseth
Edvard Tagseth
Elias Saad
🎯
Elias Saad
Hany Mukhtar
🎯
Hany Mukhtar
Sam Surridge
Sam Surridge
Roman Celentano
Roman Celentano
Samuel Gidi
Samuel Gidi
Matt Miazga
Matt Miazga
Miles Robinson
Miles Robinson
Pavel Bucha
Pavel Bucha
Obinna Nwobodo
Obinna Nwobodo
Gerardo Valenzuela
Gerardo Valenzuela
Ender Echenique
Ender Echenique
Kenji Mboma Dem
Kenji Mboma Dem
Kévin Denkey
Kévin Denkey
Evander
Evander
Nashville SC 4-4-2
Starting XI
99
Brian Schwake
G
31
Andy Najar
↓ 87' 🟨 49'
D
4
Jeisson Palacios
🟨 70'
D
3
Maxwell Woledzi
D
27
Reed Baker-Whiting
🎯 90+6'
D
7
Cristian Espinoza
🎯 43' ↓ 87'
M
8
Patrick Yazbek
↓ 62'
M
20
Edvard Tagseth
↓ 87' 🟨 79'
M
11
Elias Saad
🎯 53' ↓ 90+4'
M
10
Hany Mukhtar
⚽ 53' 🎯 89' ↓ 90+5'
F
9
Sam Surridge
⚽ 43'
F
Substitutes
16
Matthew Corcoran
↑ 62'
M
2
Daniel Lovitz
↑ 87'
D
14
Shakur Mohammed
↑ 87'
M
6
Bryan Acosta
⚽ 89' ↑ 87'
M
1
Joe Willis
G
5
Jack Maher
D
22
Josh Bauer
D
19
Alex Muyl
↑ 90+4'
M
37
Ahmed Qasem
⚽ 90+6' ↑ 90+5'
F
FC Cincinnati 3-4-1-2
Starting XI
18
Roman Celentano
G
11
Samuel Gidi
↓ 66'
D
21
Matt Miazga
D
12
Miles Robinson
D
20
Pavel Bucha
M
5
Obinna Nwobodo
↓ 46' 🟨 44'
M
22
Gerardo Valenzuela
↓ 73'
M
66
Ender Echenique
↓ 87'
M
17
Kenji Mboma Dem
↓ 46'
F
9
Kévin Denkey
F
10
Evander
↓ 90+1'
F
Substitutes
29
Bryan Ramirez
↑ 46' 🟨 89'
D
99
Ayoub Jabbari
↑ 46'
F
24
Kyle Smith
↑ 66'
D
16
Tom Barlow
↑ 73'
F
2
Alvas Powell
↑ 87'
D
27
Tah Anunga
↑ 90+1'
M
13
Evan Louro
G
4
Nick Hagglund
D
15
Teenage Hadebe
D
Last matches: Nashville SC
23.08.26
Maj
Nashville SC
Columbus Crew
3
2
W
19.08.26
Maj
Nashville SC
New York Red Bulls
1
0
W
16.08.26
Maj
Nashville SC
Inter Miami
4
1
W
01.08.26
Maj
Nashville SC
DC United
2
2
D
25.07.26
Maj
Nashville SC
Orlando City SC
0
1
L
23.07.26
Maj
Nashville SC
CF Montreal
1
0
W
18.07.26
Maj
Nashville SC
Atlanta United FC
1
0
W
24.05.26
Maj
Nashville SC
New York City FC
2
1
W
18.05.26
Maj
Nashville SC
Los Angeles FC
3
2
W
13.05.26
Maj
Nashville SC
New England Revolution
3
0
W
10.05.26
Maj
Nashville SC
DC United
2
2
D
06.05.26
CON
Nashville SC
Tigres UANL
0
1
L
02.05.26
Maj
Nashville SC
Philadelphia Union
0
0
D
29.04.26
CON
Nashville SC
Tigres UANL
0
1
L
26.04.26
Maj
Nashville SC
Charlotte
4
2
W
18.04.26
Maj
Nashville SC
Atlanta United FC
2
0
W
15.04.26
CON
Nashville SC
Club America
1
0
W
11.04.26
Maj
Nashville SC
Charlotte
2
1
W
08.04.26
CON
Nashville SC
Club America
0
0
D
05.04.26
Maj
Nashville SC
Chicago Fire
0
1
L
Last matches: FC Cincinnati
22.08.26
Maj
FC Cincinnati
Seattle Sounders
1
1
D
19.08.26
Maj
FC Cincinnati
New York City FC
2
1
W
15.08.26
Maj
FC Cincinnati
Orlando City SC
1
1
D
01.08.26
Maj
FC Cincinnati
San Jose Earthquakes
4
2
W
25.07.26
Maj
FC Cincinnati
Columbus Crew
1
2
L
22.07.26
Maj
FC Cincinnati
Vancouver Whitecaps
4
3
W
10.07.26
Fri
FC Cincinnati
Burnley
3
1
W
23.05.26
Maj
FC Cincinnati
Orlando City SC
6
2
W
17.05.26
Maj
FC Cincinnati
San Diego
3
3
D
13.05.26
Maj
FC Cincinnati
Inter Miami
3
5
L
09.05.26
Maj
FC Cincinnati
Charlotte
2
2
D
03.05.26
Maj
FC Cincinnati
Chicago Fire
3
2
W
25.04.26
Maj
FC Cincinnati
New York Red Bulls
2
0
W
22.04.26
Maj
FC Cincinnati
New York City FC
4
4
D
18.04.26
Maj
FC Cincinnati
Chicago Fire
3
3
D
11.04.26
Maj
FC Cincinnati
Toronto FC
1
1
D
04.04.26
Maj
FC Cincinnati
New York Red Bulls
2
4
L
22.03.26
Maj
FC Cincinnati
CF Montreal
4
3
W
20.03.26
CON
FC Cincinnati
Tigres UANL
1
5
L
15.03.26
Maj
FC Cincinnati
New England Revolution
1
6
L
H2H: Nashville SC vs FC Cincinnati
13.09.25
H2H
FC Cincinnati
Nashville SC
2
1
L
30.03.25
H2H
Nashville SC
FC Cincinnati
1
2
L
22.09.24
H2H
Nashville SC
FC Cincinnati
2
2
D
29.05.24
H2H
FC Cincinnati
Nashville SC
0
2
W
05.08.23
H2H
FC Cincinnati
Nashville SC
1
1
D
15.07.23
H2H
FC Cincinnati
Nashville SC
3
1
L
26.03.23
H2H
Nashville SC
FC Cincinnati
0
1
L
17.02.23
H2H
Nashville SC
FC Cincinnati
6
3
W
23.07.22
H2H
FC Cincinnati
Nashville SC
1
1
D
27.10.21
H2H
FC Cincinnati
Nashville SC
3
6
W
25.07.21
H2H
Nashville SC
FC Cincinnati
3
0
W
18.04.21
H2H
Nashville SC
FC Cincinnati
2
2
D
Last matches: Nashville SC
23.08.26
Maj
Nashville SC
Columbus Crew
3
2
W
16.08.26
Maj
Nashville SC
Inter Miami
4
1
W
23.07.26
Maj
Nashville SC
CF Montreal
1
0
W
18.07.26
Maj
Nashville SC
Atlanta United FC
1
0
W
24.05.26
Maj
Nashville SC
New York City FC
2
1
W
18.05.26
Maj
Nashville SC
Los Angeles FC
3
2
W
10.05.26
Maj
Nashville SC
DC United
2
2
D
29.04.26
CON
Nashville SC
Tigres UANL
0
1
L
26.04.26
Maj
Nashville SC
Charlotte
4
2
W
08.04.26
CON
Nashville SC
Club America
0
0
D
21.03.26
Maj
Nashville SC
Orlando City SC
5
0
W
11.03.26
CON
Nashville SC
Inter Miami
0
0
D
08.03.26
Maj
Nashville SC
Minnesota United FC
3
1
W
25.02.26
CON
Nashville SC
Atlético Ottawa
5
0
W
22.02.26
Maj
Nashville SC
New England Revolution
4
1
W
14.02.26
Fri
Nashville SC
Lexington
1
2
L
11.02.26
Fri
Nashville SC
Columbus Crew
1
0
W
23.01.26
Fri
Nashville SC
Colorado Rapids
3
1
W
H2H at home: Nashville SC
30.03.25
H2H
Nashville SC
FC Cincinnati
1
2
L
22.09.24
H2H
Nashville SC
FC Cincinnati
2
2
D
26.03.23
H2H
Nashville SC
FC Cincinnati
0
1
L
17.02.23
H2H
Nashville SC
FC Cincinnati
6
3
W
25.07.21
H2H
Nashville SC
FC Cincinnati
3
0
W
18.04.21
H2H
Nashville SC
FC Cincinnati
2
2
D
Last matches: FC Cincinnati
15.08.26
Maj
FC Cincinnati
Orlando City SC
1
1
D
25.07.26
Maj
FC Cincinnati
Columbus Crew
1
2
L
17.05.26
Maj
FC Cincinnati
San Diego
3
3
D
09.05.26
Maj
FC Cincinnati
Charlotte
2
2
D
03.05.26
Maj
FC Cincinnati
Chicago Fire
3
2
W
22.04.26
Maj
FC Cincinnati
New York City FC
4
4
D
11.04.26
Maj
FC Cincinnati
Toronto FC
1
1
D
04.04.26
Maj
FC Cincinnati
New York Red Bulls
2
4
L
20.03.26
CON
FC Cincinnati
Tigres UANL
1
5
L
15.03.26
Maj
FC Cincinnati
New England Revolution
1
6
L
28.02.26
Maj
FC Cincinnati
Minnesota United FC
0
1
L
19.02.26
CON
FC Cincinnati
Universidad O&M
4
0
W
11.02.26
Fri
FC Cincinnati
Orlando City SC
2
3
L
28.01.26
Fri
FC Cincinnati
Houston Dynamo
1
1
D
23.01.26
Fri
FC Cincinnati
New England Revolution
1
1
D
H2H away: FC Cincinnati
30.03.25
H2H
Nashville SC
FC Cincinnati
1
2
W
22.09.24
H2H
Nashville SC
FC Cincinnati
2
2
D
26.03.23
H2H
Nashville SC
FC Cincinnati
0
1
W
17.02.23
H2H
Nashville SC
FC Cincinnati
6
3
L
25.07.21
H2H
Nashville SC
FC Cincinnati
3
0
L
18.04.21
H2H
Nashville SC
FC Cincinnati
2
2
D
Showing odds from: Bet365
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 3.84
Draw 4.26
Home 1.85
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 4.20
Draw 2.67
Home 2.34
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 1.5 1.15
Over 2.5 1.48
Over 2.75 1.58
Over 3.0 1.74
Over 3.25 1.99
Over 3.5 2.22
Over 3.75 2.54
Over 4.5 3.72
Over 5.5 7.07
Under 1.5 5.94
Under 2.5 2.74
Under 2.75 2.47
Under 3.0 2.18
Under 3.25 1.90
Under 3.5 1.71
Under 3.75 1.56
Under 4.5 1.29
Under 5.5 1.12
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 4.20
Draw 3.90
Home 1.80
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 4.00
Draw 2.50
Home 2.30
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 3.75
Draw 2.75
Home 2.05
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 0.5 1.02
Over 1.5 1.12
Over 2.5 1.44
Over 3.5 2.10
Over 4.5 3.50
Over 5.5 6.50
Over 6.5 13.00
Over 7.5 26.00
Over 8.5 51.00
Under 0.5 19.00
Under 1.5 6.00
Under 2.5 2.70
Under 3.5 1.67
Under 4.5 1.28
Under 5.5 1.11
Under 6.5 1.04
Under 7.5 1.01
Under 8.5 1.00
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 4.10
Draw 4.10
Home 1.72
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 3.90
Draw 2.55
Home 2.08
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 3.70
Draw 3.05
Home 2.02
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 1.5 1.11
Over 2.5 1.41
Over 3.0 1.63
Over 3.25 1.84
Over 3.5 2.06
Over 3.75 2.33
Over 4.0 2.80
Over 4.5 3.45
Over 5.5 6.25
Over 6.5 11.00
Under 1.5 6.00
Under 2.5 2.80
Under 3.0 2.20
Under 3.25 1.91
Under 3.5 1.73
Under 3.75 1.57
Under 4.0 1.41
Under 4.5 1.29
Under 5.5 1.10
Under 6.5 1.03

Standings

Eastern Conference
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 21 15 4 2 43:17 26 49
W W W D L
2 22 12 6 4 56:41 15 42
W L D L D
3 21 11 4 6 39:28 11 37
D D W W W
4 22 10 5 7 40:32 8 35
W W D W L
5 21 10 4 7 33:26 7 34
D W L L D
6 21 8 7 6 49:47 2 31
D W D W L
7 22 7 7 8 36:31 5 28
D D L L D
8 22 7 5 10 32:46 -14 26
L D L L W
9 22 5 10 7 32:38 -6 25
D W D W D
10 22 5 10 7 28:36 -8 25
D L L D D
11 21 7 3 11 34:51 -17 24
W L D L W
12 22 6 6 10 34:39 -5 24
W D D W W
13 22 6 3 13 25:38 -13 21
L W W W L
14 22 5 6 11 30:46 -16 21
L D W D D
15 21 5 5 11 30:36 -6 20
L L L D W
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/8-finals)
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/16-finals)

Missing Players

Nashville SC 2 missing
-
C. Applewhite
Questionable Lower-Body Injury
OUT
-
W. Madrigal
Missing Fixture Lower-Body Injury
OUT
FC Cincinnati 0 missing
No missing players data