FRANCE › LIGUE 1
19.04.2026 15:15
Stade de la Beaujoire
Referee: G. Paradis
Nantes
Match Timeline
Stade Brestois 29
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
⚽
9'
Mostafa Mohamed · Assist: F. Coquelin
Nantes
🟨
41'
Daouda Guindo
Stade Brestois 29
🟨
45+1'
Romain Del Castillo
Stade Brestois 29
🔄
46'
F. Coquelin ↔ L. Leroux
Nantes
🟨
56'
Louis Leroux
Nantes
VAR
63'
Dehmaine Tabibou
Nantes
🟥
65'
Dehmaine Tabibou
Nantes
🔄
67'
D. Guindo ↔ K. Lala
Stade Brestois 29
🔄
67'
J. Dina Ebimbe ↔ H. Makalou
Stade Brestois 29
🔄
77'
Mostafa Mohamed ↔ M. Abline
Nantes
🔄
78'
H. Magnetti ↔ P. Mboup
Stade Brestois 29
🟨
90+4'
Anthony Lopes
Nantes
🔄
90+1'
I. Ganago ↔ M. Acapandie
Nantes
⚽
90'
B. Chardonnet · Assist: R. Del Castillo
Stade Brestois 29

Nantes vs Stade Brestois 29 Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 57.1%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 52.7%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 52.7%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
57.1%
- ▥
BTTS BTTS Yes
52.7%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
52.7%
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Nantes Win 18.8%
Draw 24.1%
Stade Brestois 29 Win 57.1%
Expected Goals (xG)
Nantes1.21
Stade Brestois 291.44
Recent Form (Last 5)
Nantes Nantes
WWDLW
30 GF / 49 GA
Stade Brestois 29 Stade Brestois 29
WLDWL
38 GF / 44 GA
Key Stats
1
Average Goals Scored
1.31
1.63
Average Goals Conceded
1.52
15
BTTS Yes
13
13
Over 2.5
14
3.2
Shots on Goal
3.59

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Nantes Nantes 30 matches
Stade Brestois 29 Stade Brestois 29 29 matches
Nantes Statistic Stade Brestois 29
5 Wins 10
8 Draws 7
17 Losses 12
30 Goals For 38
49 Goals Against 44
1 Avg Goals Scored 1.31
1.63 Avg Goals Conceded 1.52
15 BTTS Yes 13
20 Over 1.5 24
13 Over 2.5 14
8 Over 3.5 8
6 Clean Sheets 9
12 Failed To Score 9
3.2 Shots On Goal 3.59
10.4 Total Shots 11.38
2.93 Corners 4.14
43.5% Ball Possession 43%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From the opening view, this looks like a meeting between teams arriving with different levels of stability, reinforced by two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Nantes appear more affected by absences, and that imbalance in squad availability could shift some of the structural advantage toward Stade Brestois 29. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Nantes expected to line up in 4-1-4-1 and Stade Brestois 29 in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Stade Brestois 29 having the stronger overall control. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. Stade Brestois 29 carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 11 with 36 points while Nantes sit 17 on 19, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. Given the broader gap between the sides, Away Win looks like the most logical direction, while the clean-sheet expectation leans toward Stade Brestois 29.

Nantes Analysis

Nantes sit 17 with 19 points after 28 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Across the season they have posted 4 wins, 7 draws, and 17 defeats, and the 24:45 goal record continues to suggest poor form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on M. Abline (5 goals), Fabien Centonze (3 goals), Mostafa Mohamed (3 goals), with creative support from M. Abline (3 assists), Chidozie Awaziem (2 assists), B. Guirassy (1 assists), while at the back they have been quite vulnerable. At home, the split record of 2 wins, 2 draws, and 10 losses points to a weak split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach. They also have disciplinary concerns to manage, with F. Centonze, T. Tati, K. Amian unavailable.

Stade Brestois 29 Analysis

With 36 points from 28 games and a place of 11, Stade Brestois 29 still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Their record of 10 wins, 6 draws, and 12 losses, together with goals at 37:43, reflects mixed form and are going through a difficult losing run. Much of their threat comes through R. Del Castillo (8 goals), Ludovic Ajorque (7 goals), Kamory Doumbia (5 goals), with creative support from Ludovic Ajorque (8 assists), Kamory Doumbia (3 assists), Brendan Chardonnet (3 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been quite vulnerable. Away from home, they have managed 3 wins, 3 draws, and 8 losses, a return that supports a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach. They also have disciplinary concerns to manage, with M. Balde, K. Doumbia, J. M. Diaz unavailable.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Nantes won 6 times, Stade Brestois 29 won 5 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 23:19 from Nantes's perspective. 7 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 9 matches, with an average of 2.8 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: X2 (81.2%)
Predicted formations: Nantes 4-1-4-1 / Stade Brestois 29 4-2-3-1
Missing players: Nantes 4, Stade Brestois 29 4
H2H summary: Nantes wins 6, draws 4, Stade Brestois 29 wins 5

Standings

Ligue 1
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 34 24 4 6 74:29 45 76
L W W D W
2 34 22 4 8 66:35 31 70
W L W D D
3 34 18 7 9 52:37 15 61
L W D W D
4 34 18 6 10 53:40 13 60
L L W W W
5 34 18 5 11 63:45 18 59
W W L D L
6 34 17 8 9 59:50 9 59
L W L W W
7 34 16 6 12 60:54 6 54
L L W D D
8 34 15 8 11 58:47 11 53
W W D L W
9 34 11 12 11 48:51 -3 45
L W D L W
10 33 12 8 13 47:46 1 44
W W D L L
11 34 11 11 12 47:50 -3 44
W L W L W
12 34 10 9 15 43:55 -12 39
D L L L D
13 34 9 9 16 29:48 -19 36
D D L L D
14 34 7 14 13 32:44 -12 35
W L D D D
15 34 8 10 16 34:44 -10 34
W W W L D
16 34 7 11 16 37:60 -23 32
W D D L D
17 33 5 8 20 29:52 -23 23
L W L L D
18 34 3 8 23 32:76 -44 17
D L L D L
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