PORTUGAL PRIMEIRA LIGA
--.--.---- --:--
Estádio da Madeira
Referee: R. Baixinho
Nacional
Match Timeline
Guimaraes
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
14'
Rica Rocha
Guimaraes
🟨
25'
José Gomes
Nacional
🟨
32'
Filipe Soares
Nacional
🟨
32'
Witiness Quembo
Nacional
🟨
32'
Francisco Dias
Guimaraes
🟨
54'
Matheus Dias
Nacional
🔄
62'
O. Camara ↔ N. Saviolo
Guimaraes
69'
J. Ramirez · Assist: Witi
Nacional
🔄
70'
Witi ↔ Pablo Ruan
Nacional
🔄
80'
R. Rocha ↔ H. Nunes
Guimaraes
🔄
80'
T. Arcanjo ↔ M. Nogueira
Guimaraes
🔄
80'
Samu ↔ Zeega
Guimaraes
🟨
84'
Martim Guedes
Guimaraes
86'
J. Ramirez
Nacional
🔄
90+3'
Paulinho Boia ↔ J. Aurelio
Nacional
🔄
90+1'
C. Labidi ↔ A. Sousa
Nacional
🔄
90+1'
F. Soares ↔ C. Goncalves
Nacional

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 81.5%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 40.6%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 59.9%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
81.5%
-
BTTS BTTS No
40.6%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
59.9%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
-
Correct Score 0-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Nacional Win 43.2%
Draw 18.5%
Guimaraes Win 38.3%
Expected Goals (xG)
Nacional1.23
Guimaraes1.25
Recent Form (Last 5)
Nacional Nacional
WWDLW
35 GF / 45 GA
Guimaraes Guimaraes
WLDWL
39 GF / 49 GA
Key Stats
1.06
Average Goals Scored
1.18
1.36
Average Goals Conceded
1.48
16
BTTS Yes
14
14
Over 2.5
15
4.21
Shots on Goal
3.94

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Nacional Nacional 33 matches
Guimaraes Guimaraes 33 matches
Nacional Statistic Guimaraes
8 Wins 12
7 Draws 6
18 Losses 15
35 Goals For 39
45 Goals Against 49
1.06 Avg Goals Scored 1.18
1.36 Avg Goals Conceded 1.48
16 BTTS Yes 14
24 Over 1.5 25
14 Over 2.5 15
6 Over 3.5 8
7 Clean Sheets 10
11 Failed To Score 11
4.21 Shots On Goal 3.94
12.79 Total Shots 13.33
4.45 Corners 4.39
46.5% Ball Possession 51%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

Looking at the broader profile of both teams, this encounter highlights two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Guimaraes. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Nacional have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely.

Nacional Analysis

With 31 points from 33 games and a place of 14, Nacional still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. The overall return of 8 wins, 7 draws, and 18 defeats with a 35:45 goal balance points toward mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on Jesús Ramírez (16 goals), Paulinho Bóia (4 goals), Ze Vitor (4 goals), with creative support from Jose Gomes (5 assists), Liziero (4 assists), Paulinho Bóia (2 assists), while defensively they have looked quite vulnerable. At home, they have managed 5 wins, 2 draws, and 9 losses, a return that supports a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

Guimaraes Analysis

Guimaraes sit 8 with 42 points after 33 league matches. Their overall return of 12 wins, 6 draws, and 15 losses with goals at 39:49 reflects mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by Samu (7 goals), Gustavo (5 goals), Oumar Camara (5 goals), with creative support from N. Saviolo (4 assists), Gonçalo Nogueira (4 assists), Samu (3 assists), while defensively they have appeared quite vulnerable. Away from home, they have returned 4 wins, 2 draws, and 10 losses, a split that suggests a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms, they tend to show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Nacional won 6 times, Guimaraes won 6 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 21:24 from Nacional's perspective. 11 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 10 matches, with an average of 3 goals per game.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (81.5%)
Predicted formations: Nacional 4-2-3-1 / Guimaraes 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Nacional wins 6, draws 3, Guimaraes wins 6
Stats
Nacional Nacional
Guimaraes Guimaraes
Shots on Goal
3
Shots on Goal
4
Shots off Goal
1
Shots off Goal
5
Blocked Shots
1
Blocked Shots
4
2 Corner Kicks 6
17 Fouls 13
1 Offsides 2
35% Ball Possession 65%
5 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Goal 4
1 Shots off Goal 5
1 Blocked Shots 4
3 Shots insidebox 8
2 Shots outsidebox 5
5 Goalkeeper Saves 1
219 Total passes 406
148 Passes accurate 338
0.93 expected_goals 1.38
🟨 4 Yellow Cards 3 🟨
🟥 0 Red Cards 0 🟥

Lineups

Nacional
Formation
Guimaraes
Kaique Pereira
Kaique Pereira
A. Nunez
A. Nunez
Leo Santos
Leo Santos
Ze Vitor
Ze Vitor
Jose Gomes
Jose Gomes
F. Soares
F. Soares
Matheus Dias
Matheus Dias
C. Labidi
C. Labidi
Witi
🎯
Witi
J. Ramirez
⚽ 2
J. Ramirez
Paulinho Boia
Paulinho Boia
Charles Silva
Charles Silva
Maga
Maga
Thiago Balieiro
Thiago Balieiro
R. Abascal
R. Abascal
F. Dias
F. Dias
R. Rocha
R. Rocha
T. Arcanjo
T. Arcanjo
G. Nogueira
G. Nogueira
Samu
Samu
O. Camara
O. Camara
Gustavo
Gustavo
Nacional 4-3-3
Starting XI
1
Kaique Pereira
G
16
A. Nunez
D
34
Leo Santos
D
38
Ze Vitor
D
5
Jose Gomes
🟨 25'
D
22
F. Soares
↓ 90+1' 🟨 32'
M
6
Matheus Dias
🟨 54'
M
15
C. Labidi
↓ 90+1'
M
7
Witi
🎯 69' ↓ 70' 🟨 32'
F
9
J. Ramirez
⚽ 69' ⚽ 86'
F
11
Paulinho Boia
↓ 90+3'
F
Substitutes
50
K. V. Medeiros de Freitas
G
2
J. Aurelio
↑ 90+3'
D
19
L. Joao
F
27
Gabriel Veron
F
10
Daniel Junior
M
30
Watts
M
18
A. Sousa
↑ 90+1'
M
99
Pablo Ruan
↑ 70'
F
33
C. Goncalves
↑ 90+1'
D
Guimaraes 4-1-4-1
Starting XI
27
Charles Silva
G
2
Maga
D
28
Thiago Balieiro
D
26
R. Abascal
D
82
F. Dias
🟨 32'
D
80
R. Rocha
↓ 80'
18
T. Arcanjo
↓ 80'
M
30
G. Nogueira
M
20
Samu
↓ 80'
M
19
O. Camara
↓ 62'
M
11
Gustavo
F
Substitutes
25
J. Castillo
G
13
J. I. Mendes
D
4
O. Rivas Viondi
D
46
H. Nunes
↑ 80'
48
N. Saviolo
↑ 62'
F
66
T. Strata
D
88
M. Nogueira
↑ 80'
M
33
E. Opara
F
50
Zeega
↑ 80' 🟨 84'
M
Last matches: Nacional
10.08.26
Pri
Nacional
Santa Clara
2
2
D
23.07.26
Fri
Nacional
Estrela
0
2
L
22.07.26
Fri
Nacional
Leganes
0
0
D
19.07.26
Fri
Nacional
Tondela
1
1
D
18.07.26
Fri
Nacional
Leixoes
3
3
D
11.07.26
Fri
Nacional
Machico
1
2
L
11.05.26
Pri
Nacional
Santa Clara
0
2
L
02.05.26
Pri
Nacional
AVS
1
2
L
25.04.26
Pri
Nacional
Tondela
2
0
W
18.04.26
Pri
Nacional
Alverca
1
0
W
12.04.26
Pri
Nacional
Benfica
0
2
L
04.04.26
Pri
Nacional
Estrela
2
0
W
21.03.26
Pri
Nacional
Famalicao
0
1
L
15.03.26
Pri
Nacional
Estoril
0
1
L
07.03.26
Pri
Nacional
Moreirense
1
1
D
28.02.26
Pri
Nacional
SC Braga
1
2
L
21.02.26
Pri
Nacional
Arouca
0
3
L
15.02.26
Pri
Nacional
FC Porto
0
1
L
08.02.26
Pri
Nacional
Casa Pia
0
0
D
01.02.26
Pri
Nacional
Sporting CP
1
2
L
Last matches: Guimaraes
08.08.26
Pri
Guimaraes
Arouca
0
1
L
01.08.26
Fri
Guimaraes
Chaves
2
0
W
26.07.26
Fri
Guimaraes
Nottingham Forest
1
1
D
24.07.26
Fri
Guimaraes
Al-Ahli Jeddah
3
1
W
18.07.26
Fri
Guimaraes
Academica
2
0
W
18.07.26
Fri
Guimaraes
Penafiel
5
0
W
11.07.26
Fri
Guimaraes
Felgueiras 1932
3
1
W
11.05.26
Pri
Guimaraes
Casa Pia
0
1
L
04.05.26
Pri
Guimaraes
Sporting CP
1
5
L
25.04.26
Pri
Guimaraes
Rio Ave
2
0
W
18.04.26
Pri
Guimaraes
GIL Vicente
1
0
W
11.04.26
Pri
Guimaraes
AVS
1
1
D
03.04.26
Pri
Guimaraes
Tondela
5
0
W
21.03.26
Pri
Guimaraes
Benfica
0
3
L
14.03.26
Pri
Guimaraes
Famalicao
1
2
L
08.03.26
Pri
Guimaraes
Santa Clara
0
2
L
28.02.26
Pri
Guimaraes
Alverca
1
1
D
21.02.26
Pri
Guimaraes
SC Braga
2
3
L
14.02.26
Pri
Guimaraes
Estrela
2
1
W
07.02.26
Pri
Guimaraes
Arouca
2
3
L
H2H: Nacional vs Guimaraes
16.05.26
H2H
Nacional
Guimaraes
2
0
W
02.01.26
H2H
Guimaraes
Nacional
2
1
L
03.05.25
H2H
Nacional
Guimaraes
1
2
L
23.12.24
H2H
Guimaraes
Nacional
2
2
D
26.04.21
H2H
Nacional
Guimaraes
1
0
W
21.01.21
H2H
Guimaraes
Nacional
3
1
L
05.05.19
H2H
Guimaraes
Nacional
2
2
D
02.01.19
H2H
Nacional
Guimaraes
1
0
W
31.03.17
H2H
Nacional
Guimaraes
1
2
L
04.11.16
H2H
Guimaraes
Nacional
2
1
L
20.03.16
H2H
Nacional
Guimaraes
3
2
W
07.11.15
H2H
Guimaraes
Nacional
0
1
W
11.05.15
H2H
Nacional
Guimaraes
2
2
D
04.01.15
H2H
Guimaraes
Nacional
4
0
L
03.02.14
H2H
Guimaraes
Nacional
1
2
W
Last matches: Nacional
22.07.26
Fri
Nacional
Leganes
0
0
D
18.07.26
Fri
Nacional
Leixoes
3
3
D
11.07.26
Fri
Nacional
Machico
1
2
L
02.05.26
Pri
Nacional
AVS
1
2
L
18.04.26
Pri
Nacional
Alverca
1
0
W
04.04.26
Pri
Nacional
Estrela
2
0
W
15.03.26
Pri
Nacional
Estoril
0
1
L
28.02.26
Pri
Nacional
SC Braga
1
2
L
15.02.26
Pri
Nacional
FC Porto
0
1
L
08.02.26
Pri
Nacional
Casa Pia
0
0
D
25.01.26
Pri
Nacional
Rio Ave
4
0
W
11.01.26
Pri
Nacional
Santa Clara
3
3
D
15.12.25
Pri
Nacional
Tondela
3
1
W
29.11.25
Pri
Nacional
Benfica
1
2
L
01.11.25
Pri
Nacional
Famalicao
0
1
L
04.10.25
Pri
Nacional
Moreirense
3
2
W
20.09.25
Pri
Nacional
Arouca
1
2
L
23.08.25
Pri
Nacional
Sporting CP
1
4
L
09.08.25
Pri
Nacional
GIL Vicente
0
2
L
H2H at home: Nacional
16.05.26
H2H
Nacional
Guimaraes
2
0
W
03.05.25
H2H
Nacional
Guimaraes
1
2
L
26.04.21
H2H
Nacional
Guimaraes
1
0
W
02.01.19
H2H
Nacional
Guimaraes
1
0
W
31.03.17
H2H
Nacional
Guimaraes
1
2
L
20.03.16
H2H
Nacional
Guimaraes
3
2
W
11.05.15
H2H
Nacional
Guimaraes
2
2
D
Last matches: Guimaraes
24.07.26
Fri
Guimaraes
Al-Ahli Jeddah
3
1
W
04.05.26
Pri
Guimaraes
Sporting CP
1
5
L
18.04.26
Pri
Guimaraes
GIL Vicente
1
0
W
11.04.26
Pri
Guimaraes
AVS
1
1
D
21.03.26
Pri
Guimaraes
Benfica
0
3
L
08.03.26
Pri
Guimaraes
Santa Clara
0
2
L
21.02.26
Pri
Guimaraes
SC Braga
2
3
L
07.02.26
Pri
Guimaraes
Arouca
2
3
L
24.01.26
Pri
Guimaraes
Estoril
2
4
L
28.12.25
Pri
Guimaraes
Casa Pia
0
0
D
13.12.25
Pri
Guimaraes
Rio Ave
1
0
W
08.11.25
Pri
Guimaraes
Tondela
1
0
W
26.10.25
Pri
Guimaraes
Famalicao
0
2
L
28.09.25
Pri
Guimaraes
Alverca
0
2
L
14.09.25
Pri
Guimaraes
Estrela
2
0
W
23.08.25
Pri
Guimaraes
Moreirense
0
2
L
11.08.25
Pri
Guimaraes
FC Porto
0
3
L
H2H away: Guimaraes
16.05.26
H2H
Nacional
Guimaraes
2
0
L
03.05.25
H2H
Nacional
Guimaraes
1
2
W
26.04.21
H2H
Nacional
Guimaraes
1
0
L
02.01.19
H2H
Nacional
Guimaraes
1
0
L
31.03.17
H2H
Nacional
Guimaraes
1
2
W
20.03.16
H2H
Nacional
Guimaraes
3
2
L
11.05.15
H2H
Nacional
Guimaraes
2
2
D