PORTUGAL PRIMEIRA LIGA
19.09.2026 14:30

Nacional vs Famalicao Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home or Draw
Probability 64.1%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 67.1%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 58.6%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home or Draw
64.1%
-
BTTS Yes
67.1%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
58.6%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Nacional Win 38.5%
Draw 25.6%
Famalicao Win 35.9%
Expected Goals (xG)
Nacional0.91
Famalicao1.35
Recent Form (Last 5)
Nacional Nacional
WWDLW
12 GF / 19 GA
Famalicao Famalicao
WLDWL
12 GF / 7 GA
Key Stats
1.09
Average Goals Scored
1.09
1.73
Average Goals Conceded
0.64
6
BTTS Yes
4
5
Over 2.5
3
2.83
Shots on Goal
2.83

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Nacional Nacional 11 matches
Famalicao Famalicao 11 matches
Nacional Statistic Famalicao
1 Wins 3
4 Draws 6
6 Losses 2
12 Goals For 12
19 Goals Against 7
1.09 Avg Goals Scored 1.09
1.73 Avg Goals Conceded 0.64
6 BTTS Yes 4
9 Over 1.5 5
5 Over 2.5 3
4 Over 3.5 2
2 Clean Sheets 6
4 Failed To Score 4
2.83 Shots On Goal 2.83
10.5 Total Shots 9.17
3.33 Corners 5.83
50% Ball Possession 55.3%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

There is very little separating these two teams on paper, and two sides with a fairly similar football identity points toward a competitive game. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Nacional have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Famalicao. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Nacional expected to line up in 3-4-2-1 and Famalicao in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Famalicao having the stronger overall control. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns.

Nacional Analysis

With 4 points from 5 games and a place of 12, Nacional still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. The overall return of 1 wins, 1 draws, and 3 defeats with a 6:8 goal balance points toward poor form and are going through a difficult losing run. Going forward they depend heavily on Léo Santos (1 goals), Liziero (1 goals), Zé Vitor (1 goals), with creative support from Léo Santos (1 assists), Liziero (1 assists), Daniel Júnior (1 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. At home, the split record of 1 wins, 0 draws, and 1 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

Famalicao Analysis

With 3 points from 5 games and a place of 14, Famalicao still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Across the season they have posted 0 wins, 3 draws, and 2 defeats, and the 4:6 goal record continues to suggest poor form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on G. Koutsias (3 goals), F. van Breemen (1 goals), with creative support from Mathias De Amorim (1 assists), Gil Dias (1 assists), Óscar Aranda (1 assists), while at the back they have been very solid. Away from home, the split record of 0 wins, 2 draws, and 1 losses points to a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 8 head-to-head meetings, Nacional won 3 times, Famalicao won 4 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 9:10 from Nacional's perspective. 5 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 3 matches, with an average of 2.38 goals per game.

1X2: Home or Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (74.4%)
Predicted formations: Nacional 3-4-2-1 / Famalicao 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Nacional wins 3, draws 1, Famalicao wins 4

Standings

Primeira Liga
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 6 6 0 0 15:2 13 18
W W W W W
2 5 4 1 0 18:3 15 13
W W W W D
3 5 4 1 0 14:5 9 13
W W W W D
4 5 3 2 0 9:3 6 11
W D W W D
5 5 3 1 1 7:3 4 10
D W L W W
6 5 2 3 0 11:9 2 9
W D W D D
7 6 2 2 2 7:9 -2 8
W W L D L
8 4 2 1 1 3:1 2 7
L D W W
9 4 2 1 1 6:5 1 7
L W W D
10 5 2 1 2 6:8 -2 7
L L D W W
11 6 1 2 3 8:11 -3 5
W L D L D
12 6 1 1 4 4:7 -3 4
L D L W L
13 6 1 1 4 7:11 -4 4
L L L L W
14 5 1 1 3 4:12 -8 4
L L W L D
15 5 0 3 2 4:6 -2 3
D D L L D
16 5 1 0 4 2:11 -9 3
L L W L L
17 5 0 2 3 2:7 -5 2
D L L L D
18 6 0 1 5 1:15 -14 1
L D L L L
Promotion - Champions League (League phase)
Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - Europa League (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Liga Portugal (Relegation)
Relegation - Liga Portugal 2