PORTUGAL PRIMEIRA LIGA
16.08.2026 14:30
Estádio da Madeira
Referee: Bruno Jose Ribeiro Pires Costa, Portugal
Nacional
Match Timeline
Estoril
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
11'
Xeka
Estoril
🟨
32'
Xeka
Estoril
🟥
32'
Xeka
Estoril
🟨
51'
Matheus Dias
Nacional
🔄
63'
A. Lacximicant ↔ T. Brito
Estoril
🔄
63'
R. Guitane ↔ F. Garcia
Estoril
🔄
66'
M. Baeza ↔ Deivison
Nacional
🔄
66'
Matheus Dias ↔ S. Gavriel
Nacional
68'
Ze Vitor · Assist: Leo Santos
Nacional
🔄
75'
F. Medrano ↔ G. Costa
Estoril
🔄
75'
R. Sanchez ↔ P. Carvalho
Estoril
77'
Leo Santos · Assist: Daniel Junior
Nacional
🟨
79'
Filipe Soares
Nacional
🔄
81'
Daniel Junior ↔ D. I. de la Cruz
Nacional
🟨
82'
Ismael Sierra Arnal
Estoril
🟨
85'
Ferro
Estoril
🔄
85'
A. Tsoungui ↔ Jandro
Estoril
🔄
88'
Pablo Ruan ↔ J. Silva
Nacional

Nacional vs Estoril Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home or Draw
Probability 61.3%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 67.1%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 51.1%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home or Draw
61.3%
-
BTTS Yes
67.1%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
51.1%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Draw / Draw
-
-
Correct Score 1-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Nacional Win 39.4%
Draw 21.9%
Estoril Win 38.7%
Expected Goals (xG)
Nacional1.02
Estoril1.27
Recent Form (Last 5)
Nacional Nacional
WWDLW
7 GF / 10 GA
Estoril Estoril
WLDWL
5 GF / 4 GA
Key Stats
1.17
Average Goals Scored
1
1.67
Average Goals Conceded
0.8
4
BTTS Yes
2
3
Over 2.5
1
4
Shots on Goal
3

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Nacional Nacional 6 matches
Estoril Estoril 5 matches
Nacional Statistic Estoril
0 Wins 1
4 Draws 3
2 Losses 1
7 Goals For 5
10 Goals Against 4
1.17 Avg Goals Scored 1
1.67 Avg Goals Conceded 0.8
4 BTTS Yes 2
5 Over 1.5 4
3 Over 2.5 1
2 Over 3.5 0
1 Clean Sheets 2
2 Failed To Score 2
4 Shots On Goal 3
10 Total Shots 14
4 Corners 7
48% Ball Possession 50%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

H2H Analysis

Across those 14 head-to-head meetings, Nacional won 5 times, Estoril won 5 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 18:15 from Nacional's perspective. 6 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 8 matches, with an average of 2.36 goals per game.

1X2: Home or Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (78.1%)
Predicted formations: Nacional 3-4-2-1 / Estoril 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Nacional wins 5, draws 4, Estoril wins 5

Standings

Primeira Liga
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 6 6 0 0 15:2 13 18
W W W W W
2 6 5 1 0 21:4 17 16
W W W W W
3 6 4 2 0 15:6 9 14
D W W W W
4 6 4 2 0 11:4 7 14
W W D W W
5 6 3 1 2 8:5 3 10
L D W L W
6 5 2 3 0 11:9 2 9
W D W D D
7 6 2 2 2 7:9 -2 8
W W L D L
8 4 2 1 1 6:5 1 7
L W W D
9 5 2 1 2 4:4 0 7
L L D W W
10 5 2 1 2 6:8 -2 7
L L D W W
11 6 1 2 3 8:11 -3 5
W L D L D
12 6 0 4 2 5:7 -2 4
D D D L L
13 6 1 1 4 4:7 -3 4
L D L W L
14 6 1 1 4 7:11 -4 4
L L L L W
15 5 1 1 3 4:12 -8 4
L L W L D
16 5 1 0 4 2:11 -9 3
L L W L L
17 5 0 2 3 2:7 -5 2
D L L L D
18 6 0 1 5 1:15 -14 1
L D L L L
Promotion - Champions League (League phase)
Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - Europa League (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Liga Portugal (Relegation)
Relegation - Liga Portugal 2