PORTUGAL › PRIMEIRA LIGA

16.08.2026 14:30

Nacional

2 - 0

Estoril

Estádio da Madeira

Referee: Bruno Jose Ribeiro Pires Costa, Portugal

Nacional

Match Timeline

Estoril

0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'

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Nacional vs Estoril Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2

Home or Draw

Probability 61.3%

Odds -

BTTS

Yes

Probability 67.1%

Odds -

Over / Under 2.5

Under 2.5

Probability 51.1%

Odds -

All Markets

Market	Option	Probability	Odds	Stats & Analysis
1X2	Home or Draw	61.3%	-	▥
BTTS	Yes	67.1%	-	▥
Over / Under 2.5	Under 2.5	51.1%	-	▥
Corners O/U	Over 7.5 Corners	92%	-	▥
HT / FT	Draw / Draw	-	-	▥
Correct Score	1-1	-	-	▥

Probability Distribution

Nacional Win 39.4%

Draw 21.9%

Estoril Win 38.7%

Expected Goals (xG)

Nacional1.02

Estoril1.27

Recent Form (Last 5)

Nacional

WWDLW

7 GF / 10 GA

Estoril

WLDWL

5 GF / 4 GA

Key Stats

1.17

Average Goals Scored

1.67

Average Goals Conceded

0.8

BTTS Yes

Over 2.5

Shots on Goal

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Nacional 6 matches

Estoril 5 matches

Nacional	Statistic	Estoril
0	Wins	1
4	Draws	3
2	Losses	1
7	Goals For	5
10	Goals Against	4
1.17	Avg Goals Scored	1
1.67	Avg Goals Conceded	0.8
4	BTTS Yes	2
5	Over 1.5	4
3	Over 2.5	1
2	Over 3.5	0
1	Clean Sheets	2
2	Failed To Score	2
4	Shots On Goal	3
10	Total Shots	14
4	Corners	7
48%	Ball Possession	50%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

H2H Analysis

Across those 14 head-to-head meetings, Nacional won 5 times, Estoril won 5 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 18:15 from Nacional's perspective. 6 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 8 matches, with an average of 2.36 goals per game.

1X2: Home or Draw

BTTS: Yes

Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5

Highest model probability: 12 (78.1%)

Predicted formations: Nacional 3-4-2-1 / Estoril 4-2-3-1

H2H summary: Nacional wins 5, draws 4, Estoril wins 5

Standings

Primeira Liga

#	Team	MP	W	D	L	G	GD	PTS	Form
1	FC Porto	8	8	0	0	20:4	16	24	W W W W W
2	Benfica	8	6	1	1	24:7	17	19	W L W W W
3	Sporting CP	8	5	3	0	20:9	11	18	W D D W W
4	Santa Clara	8	5	3	0	12:4	8	18	W D W W D
5	Arouca	8	4	2	2	11:7	4	14	W D L D W
6	Academico Viseu	8	4	2	2	11:10	1	14	W W W W L
7	GIL Vicente	7	3	2	2	6:5	1	11	W D L L D
8	Alverca	8	3	2	3	13:12	1	11	W W W L D
9	SC Braga	7	3	2	2	8:8	0	11	L D W L W
10	Estrela	8	2	4	2	14:15	-1	10	L L D W D
11	Maritimo	8	2	2	4	9:14	-5	8	L D L L L
12	Moreirense	8	2	2	4	8:15	-7	8	L D W L L
13	Famalicao	8	1	4	3	10:11	-1	7	L W D D D
14	Rio Ave	8	2	1	5	8:17	-9	7	W L D L L
15	Vitória SC	8	1	2	5	5:10	-5	5	L D L D L
16	Nacional Home	8	1	1	6	9:18	-9	4	L L L L L
17	Casa Pia	8	1	1	6	3:17	-14	4	L W L D L
18	Estoril Away	8	0	2	6	4:12	-8	2	L L L D L