PORTUGAL PRIMEIRA LIGA
--.--.---- --:--
Estádio da Madeira
Referee: M. Torres
Nacional
Match Timeline
AVS
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
4'
F. Soares
Nacional
22'
Pedro Lima · Assist: T. Akinsola
AVS
🟨
41'
Gabriel Veron
Nacional
🟨
45'
Paulo Vitor
AVS
🔄
46'
Gabriel Veron ↔ Liziero
Nacional
🟨
55'
Chiheb Labidi
Nacional
🟨
58'
Ze Vitor
Nacional
63'
G. Neiva · Assist: D. Duarte
AVS
🔄
64'
T. Galletto ↔ Ponck
AVS
🔄
71'
Daniel Junior ↔ L. Joao
Nacional
🔄
71'
C. Labidi ↔ Pablo Ruan
Nacional
🔄
72'
G. Neiva ↔ Tomane
AVS
🔄
88'
A. Nunez ↔ J. Aurelio
Nacional
🔄
88'
Jose Gomes ↔ Witi
Nacional
🔄
88'
T. Akinsola ↔ G. Molina
AVS
🟨
89'
Adriel
AVS
🟨
90+3'
Ze Vitor
Nacional
🟥
90+3'
Ze Vitor
Nacional

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 72.5%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 40%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 41.8%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
72.5%
-
BTTS BTTS No
40%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
41.8%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
89.3%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-0
-
-
Probability Distribution
Nacional Win 72.5%
Draw 15.9%
AVS Win 11.6%
Expected Goals (xG)
Nacional1.5
AVS0.95
Recent Form (Last 5)
Nacional Nacional
WWDLW
34 GF / 41 GA
AVS AVS
WLDWL
22 GF / 65 GA
Key Stats
1.1
Average Goals Scored
0.71
1.32
Average Goals Conceded
2.1
15
BTTS Yes
13
13
Over 2.5
18
4.26
Shots on Goal
3.06

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Nacional Nacional 31 matches
AVS AVS 31 matches
Nacional Statistic AVS
8 Wins 1
7 Draws 11
16 Losses 19
34 Goals For 22
41 Goals Against 65
1.1 Avg Goals Scored 0.71
1.32 Avg Goals Conceded 2.1
15 BTTS Yes 13
22 Over 1.5 25
13 Over 2.5 18
6 Over 3.5 12
7 Clean Sheets 4
10 Failed To Score 17
4.26 Shots On Goal 3.06
12.42 Total Shots 10.94
4.29 Corners 3.65
45.4% Ball Possession 39.8%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

Looking at the broader profile of both teams, this encounter highlights two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward AVS. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

Nacional Analysis

With 31 points from 31 games and a place of 14, Nacional still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Their record of 8 wins, 7 draws, and 16 losses, together with goals at 34:41, reflects good form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through Jesús Ramírez (16 goals), Paulinho Bóia (4 goals), Ze Vitor (4 goals), with creative support from Jose Gomes (5 assists), Liziero (4 assists), Paulinho Bóia (2 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been quite vulnerable. At home, they have returned 5 wins, 2 draws, and 8 losses, which indicates a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

AVS Analysis

AVS sit 18 with 14 points after 31 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Across the season they have posted 1 wins, 11 draws, and 19 defeats, and the 22:65 goal record continues to suggest poor form and have been stuck in a sequence of draws. Their attacking burden often falls on Nene (4 goals), Tomané (4 goals), D. Duarte (3 goals), with creative support from Pedro Lima (2 assists), Diogo Spencer (2 assists), Guilherme Neiva (2 assists), while at the back they have been quite vulnerable. Away from home, they have returned 0 wins, 5 draws, and 10 losses, which indicates a weak split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 6 head-to-head meetings, Nacional won 3 times, AVS won 1 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 10:7 from Nacional's perspective. 4 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 5 matches, with an average of 2.83 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 1X (88.4%)
Predicted formations: Nacional 4-3-3 / AVS 4-3-3
H2H summary: Nacional wins 3, draws 2, AVS wins 1
Stats
Nacional Nacional
AVS AVS
Shots on Goal
6
Shots on Goal
3
Shots off Goal
10
Shots off Goal
7
Blocked Shots
9
Blocked Shots
9
8 Corner Kicks 6
8 Fouls 14
0 Offsides 1
68% Ball Possession 32%
25 Total Shots 19
6 Shots on Goal 3
10 Shots off Goal 7
9 Blocked Shots 9
16 Shots insidebox 9
9 Shots outsidebox 10
1 Goalkeeper Saves 4
433 Total passes 203
363 Passes accurate 142
1.83 expected_goals 1.64
🟨 4 Yellow Cards 2 🟨
🟥 1 Red Cards 0 🟥

Lineups

Nacional
Formation
AVS
Kaique Pereira
Kaique Pereira
A. Nunez
A. Nunez
Leo Santos
Leo Santos
Ze Vitor
Ze Vitor
Jose Gomes
Jose Gomes
C. Labidi
C. Labidi
F. Soares
F. Soares
Gabriel Veron
Gabriel Veron
Daniel Junior
Daniel Junior
Paulinho Boia
Paulinho Boia
J. Ramirez
J. Ramirez
Adriel
Adriel
Mateus Pivo
Mateus Pivo
C. Devenish
C. Devenish
Paulo Vitor
Paulo Vitor
D. Rivas
D. Rivas
T. Galletto
T. Galletto
Roni
Roni
Pedro Lima
Pedro Lima
T. Akinsola
🎯
T. Akinsola
D. Duarte
🎯
D. Duarte
G. Neiva
G. Neiva
Nacional 4-2-3-1
Starting XI
1
Kaique Pereira
G
16
A. Nunez
↓ 88'
D
34
Leo Santos
D
38
Ze Vitor
🟨 58' 🟨 90+3' 🟥 90+3'
D
5
Jose Gomes
↓ 88'
D
15
C. Labidi
↓ 71' 🟨 55'
M
22
F. Soares
⚽ 4'
M
27
Gabriel Veron
↓ 46' 🟨 41'
M
10
Daniel Junior
↓ 71'
M
11
Paulinho Boia
M
9
J. Ramirez
F
Substitutes
50
K. V. Medeiros de Freitas
G
2
J. Aurelio
↑ 88'
D
19
L. Joao
↑ 71'
F
7
Witi
↑ 88'
F
6
Matheus Dias
M
26
J. Silva
M
28
Liziero
↑ 46'
M
99
Pablo Ruan
↑ 71'
F
33
C. Goncalves
D
AVS 4-3-3
Starting XI
1
Adriel
🟨 89'
G
97
Mateus Pivo
D
42
C. Devenish
D
3
Paulo Vitor
🟨 45'
D
12
D. Rivas
D
19
T. Galletto
↓ 64'
M
70
Roni
M
8
Pedro Lima
⚽ 22'
M
11
T. Akinsola
🎯 22' ↓ 88'
F
20
D. Duarte
🎯 63'
F
21
G. Neiva
⚽ 63' ↓ 72'
F
Substitutes
93
Simao
G
88
Trigueira
G
18
Nene
F
7
Tomane
↑ 72'
F
33
A. Santos
D
26
Ponck
↑ 64'
D
5
G. Molina
↑ 88'
D
27
A. Algobia
M
14
O. Perea
F
Last matches: Nacional
23.07.26
Fri
Nacional
Estrela
0
2
L
22.07.26
Fri
Nacional
Leganes
0
0
D
19.07.26
Fri
Nacional
Tondela
1
1
D
18.07.26
Fri
Nacional
Leixoes
3
3
D
11.07.26
Fri
Nacional
Machico
1
2
L
16.05.26
Pri
Nacional
Guimaraes
2
0
W
11.05.26
Pri
Nacional
Santa Clara
0
2
L
25.04.26
Pri
Nacional
Tondela
2
0
W
18.04.26
Pri
Nacional
Alverca
1
0
W
12.04.26
Pri
Nacional
Benfica
0
2
L
04.04.26
Pri
Nacional
Estrela
2
0
W
21.03.26
Pri
Nacional
Famalicao
0
1
L
15.03.26
Pri
Nacional
Estoril
0
1
L
07.03.26
Pri
Nacional
Moreirense
1
1
D
28.02.26
Pri
Nacional
SC Braga
1
2
L
21.02.26
Pri
Nacional
Arouca
0
3
L
15.02.26
Pri
Nacional
FC Porto
0
1
L
08.02.26
Pri
Nacional
Casa Pia
0
0
D
01.02.26
Pri
Nacional
Sporting CP
1
2
L
25.01.26
Pri
Nacional
Rio Ave
4
0
W
Last matches: AVS
22.07.26
Fri
AVS
Paredes
2
4
L
18.07.26
Fri
AVS
Moreirense
2
2
D
14.07.26
Fri
AVS
Maritimo
0
2
L
11.07.26
Fri
AVS
Chaves
0
1
L
16.05.26
Pri
AVS
Moreirense
0
0
D
10.05.26
Pri
AVS
FC Porto
3
1
W
26.04.26
Pri
AVS
Sporting CP
1
1
D
17.04.26
Pri
AVS
Rio Ave
2
2
D
11.04.26
Pri
AVS
Guimaraes
1
1
D
03.04.26
Pri
AVS
GIL Vicente
0
3
L
21.03.26
Pri
AVS
Tondela
0
0
D
15.03.26
Pri
AVS
Santa Clara
0
1
L
07.03.26
Pri
AVS
Alverca
0
0
D
28.02.26
Pri
AVS
Estrela
0
0
D
21.02.26
Pri
AVS
Benfica
0
3
L
15.02.26
Pri
AVS
Estoril
3
0
W
09.02.26
Pri
AVS
Famalicao
1
3
L
02.02.26
Pri
AVS
SC Braga
0
4
L
23.01.26
Pri
AVS
Casa Pia
3
3
D
17.01.26
Pri
AVS
Arouca
0
1
L
H2H: Nacional vs AVS
02.05.26
H2H
Nacional
AVS
1
2
L
21.12.25
H2H
AVS
Nacional
2
2
D
19.01.25
H2H
Nacional
AVS
3
1
W
10.08.24
H2H
AVS
Nacional
1
1
D
06.04.24
H2H
Nacional
AVS
2
1
W
19.11.23
H2H
AVS
Nacional
0
1
W
Last matches: Nacional
22.07.26
Fri
Nacional
Leganes
0
0
D
18.07.26
Fri
Nacional
Leixoes
3
3
D
11.07.26
Fri
Nacional
Machico
1
2
L
16.05.26
Pri
Nacional
Guimaraes
2
0
W
18.04.26
Pri
Nacional
Alverca
1
0
W
04.04.26
Pri
Nacional
Estrela
2
0
W
15.03.26
Pri
Nacional
Estoril
0
1
L
28.02.26
Pri
Nacional
SC Braga
1
2
L
15.02.26
Pri
Nacional
FC Porto
0
1
L
08.02.26
Pri
Nacional
Casa Pia
0
0
D
25.01.26
Pri
Nacional
Rio Ave
4
0
W
11.01.26
Pri
Nacional
Santa Clara
3
3
D
15.12.25
Pri
Nacional
Tondela
3
1
W
29.11.25
Pri
Nacional
Benfica
1
2
L
01.11.25
Pri
Nacional
Famalicao
0
1
L
04.10.25
Pri
Nacional
Moreirense
3
2
W
20.09.25
Pri
Nacional
Arouca
1
2
L
23.08.25
Pri
Nacional
Sporting CP
1
4
L
09.08.25
Pri
Nacional
GIL Vicente
0
2
L
H2H at home: Nacional
02.05.26
H2H
Nacional
AVS
1
2
L
19.01.25
H2H
Nacional
AVS
3
1
W
06.04.24
H2H
Nacional
AVS
2
1
W
Last matches: AVS
18.07.26
Fri
AVS
Moreirense
2
2
D
14.07.26
Fri
AVS
Maritimo
0
2
L
16.05.26
Pri
AVS
Moreirense
0
0
D
17.04.26
Pri
AVS
Rio Ave
2
2
D
03.04.26
Pri
AVS
GIL Vicente
0
3
L
21.03.26
Pri
AVS
Tondela
0
0
D
07.03.26
Pri
AVS
Alverca
0
0
D
21.02.26
Pri
AVS
Benfica
0
3
L
09.02.26
Pri
AVS
Famalicao
1
3
L
23.01.26
Pri
AVS
Casa Pia
3
3
D
29.12.25
Pri
AVS
FC Porto
0
2
L
13.12.25
Pri
AVS
Sporting CP
0
6
L
28.11.25
Pri
AVS
Guimaraes
0
4
L
25.10.25
Pri
AVS
Santa Clara
0
2
L
27.09.25
Pri
AVS
Estrela
0
3
L
13.09.25
Pri
AVS
Estoril
1
3
L
24.08.25
Pri
AVS
SC Braga
2
2
D
09.08.25
Pri
AVS
Arouca
1
3
L
H2H away: AVS
02.05.26
H2H
Nacional
AVS
1
2
W
19.01.25
H2H
Nacional
AVS
3
1
L
06.04.24
H2H
Nacional
AVS
2
1
L