Predictions & Statistics
Full analysis and predictions for all markets
| Market | Option | Probability | Odds | Stats & Analysis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away Win |
61.4%
|
- | |
| BTTS | BTTS Yes |
65.8%
|
- | |
| Over / Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
51.3%
|
- |
Nacional
Alverca
Statistics are based on season averages
Season Statistics
Team averages and season trends before this fixture
Nacional
29 matches
Alverca
29 matches
| Nacional | Statistic | Alverca |
|---|---|---|
| 6 | Wins | 9 |
| 7 | Draws | 8 |
| 16 | Losses | 12 |
| 31 | Goals For | 32 |
| 41 | Goals Against | 47 |
| 1.07 | Avg Goals Scored | 1.1 |
| 1.41 | Avg Goals Conceded | 1.62 |
| 15 | BTTS Yes | 17 |
| 21 | Over 1.5 | 24 |
| 13 | Over 2.5 | 16 |
| 6 | Over 3.5 | 8 |
| 5 | Clean Sheets | 6 |
| 10 | Failed To Score | 7 |
| 4.14 | Shots On Goal | 3.66 |
| 12.34 | Total Shots | 9.93 |
| 4.21 | Corners | 4.21 |
| 45.4% | Ball Possession | 44.9% |
Match Analysis
Model notes, team context and key prediction signals
This match looks like a contest between two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Alverca. Nacional have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Nacional expected to line up in 4-3-3 and Alverca in 3-4-3, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Alverca having the stronger overall control.
Nacional approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 15 with 25 points from 29 matches. Their record of 6 wins, 7 draws, and 16 losses, together with goals at 31:41, reflects poor form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through Jesús Ramírez (14 goals), Paulinho Bóia (4 goals), Ze Vitor (4 goals), with creative support from Jose Gomes (4 assists), Liziero (4 assists), Paulinho Bóia (2 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been quite vulnerable. At home, they have managed 4 wins, 2 draws, and 8 losses, a return that supports a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.
So far, Alverca have built a campaign that leaves them 10 in the table on 35 points from 29 matches. The record of 9 wins, 8 draws, and 12 defeats, together with a 32:47 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through Marezi (8 goals), Figueiredo (5 goals), Sandro Lima (5 goals), with creative support from Lincoln (5 assists), Chiquinho (3 assists), Nabil Touaizi (3 assists), while at the back they have looked quite vulnerable. Away from home, the record of 3 wins, 4 draws, and 7 losses points toward a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.
Across those 2 head-to-head meetings, Nacional won 1 times, Alverca won 1 times, while 0 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 1:1 from Nacional's perspective. 0 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 0 matches, with an average of 1 goals per game.
Nacional
6
4
4
2
0
2
Lineups
Nacional
Guimaraes
Nacional
Santa Clara
Nacional
AVS
Nacional
Tondela
Nacional
Benfica
Nacional
Estrela
Nacional
Famalicao
Nacional
Estoril
Nacional
Moreirense
Nacional
SC Braga
Nacional
Arouca
Nacional
FC Porto
Nacional
Casa Pia
Nacional
Sporting CP
Nacional
Rio Ave
Nacional
GIL Vicente
Nacional
Santa Clara
Nacional
Guimaraes
Nacional
AVS
Nacional
Tondela
Alverca
Famalicao
Alverca
Estoril
Alverca
FC Porto
Alverca
Arouca
Alverca
Casa Pia
Alverca
Rio Ave
Alverca
Sporting CP
Alverca
GIL Vicente
Alverca
AVS
Alverca
Guimaraes
Alverca
Santa Clara
Alverca
Tondela
Alverca
Benfica
Alverca
Estrela
Alverca
SC Braga
Alverca
Moreirense
Alverca
Famalicao
Alverca
Estoril
Alverca
FC Porto
Alverca
Arouca
Nacional
Guimaraes
Nacional
AVS
Nacional
Estrela
Nacional
Estoril
Nacional
SC Braga
Nacional
FC Porto
Nacional
Casa Pia
Nacional
Rio Ave
Nacional
Santa Clara
Nacional
Tondela
Nacional
Benfica
Nacional
Famalicao
Nacional
Moreirense
Nacional
Arouca
Nacional
Sporting CP
Nacional
GIL Vicente
Alverca
Famalicao
Alverca
FC Porto
Alverca
Rio Ave
Alverca
GIL Vicente
Alverca
Guimaraes
Alverca
Tondela
Alverca
Benfica
Alverca
SC Braga
Alverca
Estoril
Alverca
Arouca
Alverca
Casa Pia
Alverca
Sporting CP
Alverca
AVS
Alverca
Santa Clara
Alverca
Estrela
Alverca
Moreirense
Standings
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | PTS | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 34 | 28 | 4 | 2 | 66:18 | 48 | 88 |
W
L
W
W
W
|
|
| 2 | 34 | 25 | 7 | 2 | 89:24 | 65 | 82 |
W
W
W
D
D
|
|
| 3 | 34 | 23 | 11 | 0 | 74:25 | 49 | 80 |
W
D
D
W
W
|
|
| 4 | 34 | 16 | 11 | 7 | 64:36 | 28 | 59 |
D
D
D
L
W
|
|
| 5 | 34 | 15 | 11 | 8 | 42:29 | 13 | 56 |
W
D
D
W
D
|
|
| 6 | 34 | 13 | 11 | 10 | 47:38 | 9 | 50 |
L
L
D
W
L
|
|
| 7 | 34 | 12 | 7 | 15 | 37:49 | -12 | 43 |
D
L
W
L
W
|
|
| 8 | 34 | 12 | 6 | 16 | 47:64 | -17 | 42 |
W
W
D
L
W
|
|
| 9 | 34 | 12 | 6 | 16 | 39:51 | -12 | 42 |
L
L
L
W
W
|
|
| 10 | 34 | 10 | 9 | 15 | 54:57 | -3 | 39 |
L
D
D
L
L
|
|
| 11 |
Alverca
Away
|
34 | 10 | 9 | 15 | 35:52 | -17 | 39 |
L
D
L
W
L
|
| 12 | 34 | 8 | 12 | 14 | 35:57 | -22 | 36 |
D
L
D
L
D
|
|
| 13 | 34 | 9 | 9 | 16 | 32:41 | -9 | 36 |
L
W
D
W
D
|
|
| 14 |
Nacional
Home
|
34 | 9 | 7 | 18 | 37:45 | -8 | 34 |
W
L
L
W
W
|
| 15 | 34 | 6 | 12 | 16 | 38:56 | -18 | 30 |
D
D
L
L
L
|
|
| 16 | 34 | 6 | 12 | 16 | 31:57 | -26 | 30 |
D
W
L
L
L
|
|
| 17 | 34 | 6 | 10 | 18 | 27:55 | -28 | 28 |
L
W
W
D
L
|
|
| 18 | 34 | 3 | 12 | 19 | 27:67 | -40 | 21 |
D
W
W
D
D
|