PORTUGAL PRIMEIRA LIGA
18.04.2026 14:30
Estádio da Madeira
Referee: M. Nogueira
Nacional
Match Timeline
Alverca
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
38'
Rhaldney
Alverca
🔄
46'
Rhaldney ↔ D. Gui
Alverca
🔄
63'
Daniel Junior ↔ F. Soares
Nacional
67'
J. Ramirez · Assist: Jose Gomes
Nacional
🔄
75'
Sandro Lima ↔ Marezi
Alverca
🔄
75'
Figueiredo ↔ M. Clairicia
Alverca
🔄
75'
Lincoln ↔ V. Moreira
Alverca
🟨
78'
Chiheb Labidi
Nacional
🟨
87'
Gabriel Veron
Nacional
🔄
87'
Gabriel Veron ↔ Matheus Dias
Nacional
🔄
88'
Chiquinho ↔ Z. Kassary
Alverca
🔄
90+3'
Liziero ↔ J. Aurelio
Nacional
🔄
90+3'
J. Ramirez ↔ Pablo Ruan
Nacional

Nacional vs Alverca Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 61.4%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 65.8%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 51.3%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
61.4%
-
BTTS BTTS Yes
65.8%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
51.3%
-
Probability Distribution
Nacional Win 23.5%
Draw 15.2%
Alverca Win 61.4%
Expected Goals (xG)
Nacional1.29
Alverca1.22
Recent Form (Last 5)
Nacional Nacional
WWDLW
31 GF / 41 GA
Alverca Alverca
WLDWL
32 GF / 47 GA
Key Stats
1.07
Average Goals Scored
1.1
1.41
Average Goals Conceded
1.62
15
BTTS Yes
17
13
Over 2.5
16
4.14
Shots on Goal
3.66

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Nacional Nacional 29 matches
Alverca Alverca 29 matches
Nacional Statistic Alverca
6 Wins 9
7 Draws 8
16 Losses 12
31 Goals For 32
41 Goals Against 47
1.07 Avg Goals Scored 1.1
1.41 Avg Goals Conceded 1.62
15 BTTS Yes 17
21 Over 1.5 24
13 Over 2.5 16
6 Over 3.5 8
5 Clean Sheets 6
10 Failed To Score 7
4.14 Shots On Goal 3.66
12.34 Total Shots 9.93
4.21 Corners 4.21
45.4% Ball Possession 44.9%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match looks like a contest between two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Alverca. Nacional have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Nacional expected to line up in 4-3-3 and Alverca in 3-4-3, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Alverca having the stronger overall control.

Nacional Analysis

Nacional approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 15 with 25 points from 29 matches. Their record of 6 wins, 7 draws, and 16 losses, together with goals at 31:41, reflects poor form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through Jesús Ramírez (14 goals), Paulinho Bóia (4 goals), Ze Vitor (4 goals), with creative support from Jose Gomes (4 assists), Liziero (4 assists), Paulinho Bóia (2 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been quite vulnerable. At home, they have managed 4 wins, 2 draws, and 8 losses, a return that supports a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

Alverca Analysis

So far, Alverca have built a campaign that leaves them 10 in the table on 35 points from 29 matches. The record of 9 wins, 8 draws, and 12 defeats, together with a 32:47 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through Marezi (8 goals), Figueiredo (5 goals), Sandro Lima (5 goals), with creative support from Lincoln (5 assists), Chiquinho (3 assists), Nabil Touaizi (3 assists), while at the back they have looked quite vulnerable. Away from home, the record of 3 wins, 4 draws, and 7 losses points toward a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 2 head-to-head meetings, Nacional won 1 times, Alverca won 1 times, while 0 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 1:1 from Nacional's perspective. 0 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 0 matches, with an average of 1 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (84.9%)
Predicted formations: Nacional 4-3-3 / Alverca 3-4-3
H2H summary: Nacional wins 1, draws 0, Alverca wins 1

Standings

Primeira Liga
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 34 28 4 2 66:18 48 88
W L W W W
2 34 25 7 2 89:24 65 82
W W W D D
3 34 23 11 0 74:25 49 80
W D D W W
4 34 16 11 7 64:36 28 59
D D D L W
5 34 15 11 8 42:29 13 56
W D D W D
6 34 13 11 10 47:38 9 50
L L D W L
7 34 12 7 15 37:49 -12 43
D L W L W
8 34 12 6 16 47:64 -17 42
W W D L W
9 34 12 6 16 39:51 -12 42
L L L W W
10 34 10 9 15 54:57 -3 39
L D D L L
11 34 10 9 15 35:52 -17 39
L D L W L
12 34 8 12 14 35:57 -22 36
D L D L D
13 34 9 9 16 32:41 -9 36
L W D W D
14 34 9 7 18 37:45 -8 34
W L L W W
15 34 6 12 16 38:56 -18 30
D D L L L
16 34 6 12 16 31:57 -26 30
D W L L L
17 34 6 10 18 27:55 -28 28
L W W D L
18 34 3 12 19 27:67 -40 21
D W W D D
Promotion - Champions League (League phase)
Promotion - Europa League (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Liga Portugal (Relegation)
Relegation - Liga Portugal 2