PARAGUAY DIVISION PROFESIONAL - CLAUSURA
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Estadio Arsenio Erico

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 57.7%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 78.8%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 66.7%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
57.7%
-
BTTS Yes
78.8%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
66.7%
-
Corners O/U Under 11.5 Corners
74.1%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Nacional Asuncion Win 57.7%
Draw 9.1%
Sportivo Luqueno Win 33.2%
Expected Goals (xG)
Nacional Asuncion1.46
Sportivo Luqueno1.07
Recent Form (Last 5)
Nacional Asuncion Nacional Asuncion
WWDLW
37 GF / 27 GA
Sportivo Luqueno Sportivo Luqueno
WLDWL
30 GF / 43 GA
Key Stats
1.37
Average Goals Scored
1.11
1
Average Goals Conceded
1.59
18
BTTS Yes
17
11
Over 2.5
16
3.7
Shots on Goal
3.7

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Nacional Asuncion Nacional Asuncion 27 matches
Sportivo Luqueno Sportivo Luqueno 27 matches
Nacional Asuncion Statistic Sportivo Luqueno
11 Wins 7
12 Draws 5
4 Losses 15
37 Goals For 30
27 Goals Against 43
1.37 Avg Goals Scored 1.11
1 Avg Goals Conceded 1.59
18 BTTS Yes 17
21 Over 1.5 21
11 Over 2.5 16
4 Over 3.5 6
8 Clean Sheets 3
4 Failed To Score 9
3.7 Shots On Goal 3.7
11.33 Total Shots 10.3
4.44 Corners 3.22
48.2% Ball Possession 43.3%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This fixture has the profile of a tight matchup, with Nacional Asuncion's more proactive style and Sportivo Luqueno's more cautious structure likely to keep the contest close. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Sportivo Luqueno arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Sportivo Luqueno. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Nacional Asuncion expected to line up in 4-4-2 and Sportivo Luqueno in 4-1-4-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Sportivo Luqueno having the stronger overall control. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected.

Nacional Asuncion Analysis

Nacional Asuncion sit 8 with 6 points after 5 league matches. The record of 1 wins, 3 draws, and 1 defeats, together with a 6:5 goal balance, points toward poor form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through Hugo Adrián Benítez (3 goals), Josué Colmán (1 goals), Roque Santa Cruz (1 goals), with creative support from Orlando Gaona Lugo (3 assists), Thomas Gutiérrez (1 assists), while at the back they have looked very solid. At home, their split return of 1 wins, 1 draws, and 0 losses fits a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football.

Sportivo Luqueno Analysis

Sportivo Luqueno approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 9 with 6 points from 5 matches. The overall return of 2 wins, 0 draws, and 3 defeats with a 6:10 goal balance points toward mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on Aldo Maiz (1 goals), Marcelo Ojeda (1 goals), Lucas Morales (1 goals), with creative support from Aldo Maiz (1 assists), Marcelo Ojeda (1 assists), Jonathan Ramos (1 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. Away from home, they have returned 2 wins, 0 draws, and 1 losses, which indicates a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Nacional Asuncion won 6 times, Sportivo Luqueno won 5 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 19:16 from Nacional Asuncion's perspective. 7 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 8 matches, with an average of 2.33 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (90.9%)
Predicted formations: Nacional Asuncion 4-4-2 / Sportivo Luqueno 4-1-4-1
H2H summary: Nacional Asuncion wins 6, draws 4, Sportivo Luqueno wins 5
Last matches: Nacional Asuncion
15.08.26
Div
Nacional Asuncion
Sportivo Trinidense
1
1
D
09.08.26
Div
Nacional Asuncion
Club Guarani
0
0
D
03.08.26
Div
Nacional Asuncion
Deportivo Recoleta
2
3
L
29.07.26
Div
Nacional Asuncion
Olimpia
2
0
W
25.07.26
Div
Nacional Asuncion
Sportivo Ameliano
1
1
D
24.05.26
Div
Nacional Asuncion
Libertad Asuncion
2
1
W
15.05.26
Div
Nacional Asuncion
Rubio NU
1
1
D
09.05.26
Div
Nacional Asuncion
Sportivo Trinidense
2
1
W
03.05.26
Div
Nacional Asuncion
Club Guarani
1
0
W
24.04.26
Div
Nacional Asuncion
Deportivo Recoleta
2
1
W
20.04.26
Div
Nacional Asuncion
Sportivo Ameliano
1
1
D
11.04.26
Div
Nacional Asuncion
Cerro Porteno
0
0
D
04.04.26
Div
Nacional Asuncion
Olimpia
0
3
L
31.03.26
Div
Nacional Asuncion
2 de Mayo
1
1
D
27.03.26
Div
Nacional Asuncion
Sportivo Luqueno
3
2
W
22.03.26
Div
Nacional Asuncion
Club Sp. San Lorenzo
0
0
D
18.03.26
Div
Nacional Asuncion
Libertad Asuncion
1
2
L
15.03.26
Div
Nacional Asuncion
Rubio NU
1
0
W
09.03.26
Div
Nacional Asuncion
Sportivo Trinidense
1
1
D
01.03.26
Div
Nacional Asuncion
Club Guarani
1
1
D
Last matches: Sportivo Luqueno
16.08.26
Div
Sportivo Luqueno
Libertad Asuncion
1
2
L
09.08.26
Div
Sportivo Luqueno
Club Sp. San Lorenzo
2
0
W
01.08.26
Div
Sportivo Luqueno
Cerro Porteno
0
3
L
29.07.26
Div
Sportivo Luqueno
Sportivo Trinidense
1
4
L
26.07.26
Div
Sportivo Luqueno
Club Guarani
2
1
W
23.05.26
Div
Sportivo Luqueno
Olimpia
1
2
L
17.05.26
Div
Sportivo Luqueno
Club Sp. San Lorenzo
0
0
D
10.05.26
Div
Sportivo Luqueno
Libertad Asuncion
2
3
L
02.05.26
Div
Sportivo Luqueno
Rubio NU
0
0
D
25.04.26
Div
Sportivo Luqueno
Sportivo Trinidense
2
1
W
18.04.26
Div
Sportivo Luqueno
Club Guarani
1
2
L
11.04.26
Div
Sportivo Luqueno
Deportivo Recoleta
2
1
W
05.04.26
Div
Sportivo Luqueno
Sportivo Ameliano
2
2
D
31.03.26
Div
Sportivo Luqueno
Cerro Porteno
2
3
L
27.03.26
Div
Sportivo Luqueno
Nacional Asuncion
2
3
L
22.03.26
Div
Sportivo Luqueno
2 de Mayo
0
2
L
17.03.26
Div
Sportivo Luqueno
Olimpia
0
1
L
13.03.26
Div
Sportivo Luqueno
Club Sp. San Lorenzo
1
1
D
07.03.26
Div
Sportivo Luqueno
Libertad Asuncion
0
1
L
02.03.26
Div
Sportivo Luqueno
Rubio NU
0
1
L
H2H: Nacional Asuncion vs Sportivo Luqueno
27.03.26
H2H
Nacional Asuncion
Sportivo Luqueno
3
2
W
27.01.26
H2H
Sportivo Luqueno
Nacional Asuncion
1
2
W
12.10.25
H2H
Nacional Asuncion
Sportivo Luqueno
1
1
D
29.07.25
H2H
Sportivo Luqueno
Nacional Asuncion
2
1
L
17.05.25
H2H
Nacional Asuncion
Sportivo Luqueno
4
0
W
10.03.25
H2H
Sportivo Luqueno
Nacional Asuncion
2
1
L
21.10.24
H2H
Sportivo Luqueno
Nacional Asuncion
2
2
D
13.08.24
H2H
Nacional Asuncion
Sportivo Luqueno
1
0
W
04.05.24
H2H
Nacional Asuncion
Sportivo Luqueno
0
1
L
11.02.24
H2H
Sportivo Luqueno
Nacional Asuncion
2
0
L
01.12.23
H2H
Sportivo Luqueno
Nacional Asuncion
1
1
D
19.09.23
H2H
Nacional Asuncion
Sportivo Luqueno
0
0
D
15.09.23
H2H
Nacional Asuncion
Sportivo Luqueno
2
1
W
22.05.23
H2H
Sportivo Luqueno
Nacional Asuncion
0
1
W
18.03.23
H2H
Nacional Asuncion
Sportivo Luqueno
0
1
L
Last matches: Nacional Asuncion
09.08.26
Div
Nacional Asuncion
Club Guarani
0
0
D
29.07.26
Div
Nacional Asuncion
Olimpia
2
0
W
24.05.26
Div
Nacional Asuncion
Libertad Asuncion
2
1
W
09.05.26
Div
Nacional Asuncion
Sportivo Trinidense
2
1
W
24.04.26
Div
Nacional Asuncion
Deportivo Recoleta
2
1
W
11.04.26
Div
Nacional Asuncion
Cerro Porteno
0
0
D
27.03.26
Div
Nacional Asuncion
Sportivo Luqueno
3
2
W
15.03.26
Div
Nacional Asuncion
Rubio NU
1
0
W
01.03.26
Div
Nacional Asuncion
Club Guarani
1
1
D
19.02.26
Div
Nacional Asuncion
Sportivo Ameliano
1
1
D
08.02.26
Div
Nacional Asuncion
Olimpia
1
2
L
31.01.26
Div
Nacional Asuncion
2 de Mayo
5
1
W
24.01.26
Div
Nacional Asuncion
Club Sp. San Lorenzo
1
0
W
H2H at home: Nacional Asuncion
27.03.26
H2H
Nacional Asuncion
Sportivo Luqueno
3
2
W
12.10.25
H2H
Nacional Asuncion
Sportivo Luqueno
1
1
D
17.05.25
H2H
Nacional Asuncion
Sportivo Luqueno
4
0
W
13.08.24
H2H
Nacional Asuncion
Sportivo Luqueno
1
0
W
04.05.24
H2H
Nacional Asuncion
Sportivo Luqueno
0
1
L
19.09.23
H2H
Nacional Asuncion
Sportivo Luqueno
0
0
D
15.09.23
H2H
Nacional Asuncion
Sportivo Luqueno
2
1
W
18.03.23
H2H
Nacional Asuncion
Sportivo Luqueno
0
1
L
Last matches: Sportivo Luqueno
09.08.26
Div
Sportivo Luqueno
Club Sp. San Lorenzo
2
0
W
01.08.26
Div
Sportivo Luqueno
Cerro Porteno
0
3
L
26.07.26
Div
Sportivo Luqueno
Club Guarani
2
1
W
17.05.26
Div
Sportivo Luqueno
Club Sp. San Lorenzo
0
0
D
02.05.26
Div
Sportivo Luqueno
Rubio NU
0
0
D
18.04.26
Div
Sportivo Luqueno
Club Guarani
1
2
L
05.04.26
Div
Sportivo Luqueno
Sportivo Ameliano
2
2
D
27.03.26
Div
Sportivo Luqueno
Nacional Asuncion
2
3
L
17.03.26
Div
Sportivo Luqueno
Olimpia
0
1
L
07.03.26
Div
Sportivo Luqueno
Libertad Asuncion
0
1
L
25.02.26
Div
Sportivo Luqueno
Sportivo Trinidense
1
1
D
13.02.26
Div
Sportivo Luqueno
Deportivo Recoleta
2
1
W
02.02.26
Div
Sportivo Luqueno
Cerro Porteno
0
2
L
23.01.26
Div
Sportivo Luqueno
2 de Mayo
2
1
W
H2H away: Sportivo Luqueno
27.03.26
H2H
Nacional Asuncion
Sportivo Luqueno
3
2
L
12.10.25
H2H
Nacional Asuncion
Sportivo Luqueno
1
1
D
17.05.25
H2H
Nacional Asuncion
Sportivo Luqueno
4
0
L
13.08.24
H2H
Nacional Asuncion
Sportivo Luqueno
1
0
L
04.05.24
H2H
Nacional Asuncion
Sportivo Luqueno
0
1
W
19.09.23
H2H
Nacional Asuncion
Sportivo Luqueno
0
0
D
15.09.23
H2H
Nacional Asuncion
Sportivo Luqueno
2
1
L
18.03.23
H2H
Nacional Asuncion
Sportivo Luqueno
0
1
W