PARAGUAY DIVISION PROFESIONAL - APERTURA
--.--.---- --:--
Estadio Arsenio Erico
Referee: A. Gimenez
Nacional Asuncion
Match Timeline
Deportivo Recoleta
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
8'
Sebastian Vargas
Nacional Asuncion
VAR
8'
Juan Falcon
Deportivo Recoleta
9'
A. Wlk
Deportivo Recoleta
VAR
21'
Junior Noguera
Deportivo Recoleta
🟨
25'
Roberto Ramírez
Nacional Asuncion
🟨
28'
Juan Franco
Deportivo Recoleta
🟨
43'
Juan Franco
Deportivo Recoleta
🟥
43'
Juan Franco
Deportivo Recoleta
🔄
46'
M. Cabrera ↔ O. Gaona Lugo
Nacional Asuncion
🔄
46'
J. Santacruz ↔ D. J. Colman Escobar
Nacional Asuncion
🔄
46'
J. Falcon ↔ W. Baez
Deportivo Recoleta
🔄
46'
A. Wlk ↔ R. Dominguez
Deportivo Recoleta
🔄
50'
R. Ortiz ↔ B. Ferreira
Deportivo Recoleta
50'
C. R. Santa · Assist: F. Jara
Nacional Asuncion
🔄
64'
J. Noguera ↔ D. Mosquera
Deportivo Recoleta
🔄
68'
R. C. Ramirez Antunez ↔ C. Arrua
Nacional Asuncion
🔄
76'
H. A. Benitez ↔ L. Gonzales
Nacional Asuncion
🔄
77'
C. R. Santa ↔ I. Bailone
Nacional Asuncion
85'
I. Bailone · Assist: S. Vargas
Nacional Asuncion
🟨
89'
Facundo Echeguren
Deportivo Recoleta
🟨
90+3'
Carlos Arrua
Nacional Asuncion
🟨
90+3'
Nicolás Marotta
Deportivo Recoleta
🔄
90'
P. Rios ↔ T. Vidal
Deportivo Recoleta
🔄
90'
J. Espinola ↔ H. Lopez
Deportivo Recoleta

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 72.3%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 77.8%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 54.7%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
72.3%
-
BTTS BTTS Yes
77.8%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
54.7%
-
Probability Distribution
Nacional Asuncion Win 72.3%
Draw 27.7%
Deportivo Recoleta Win 0%
Expected Goals (xG)
Nacional Asuncion1.33
Deportivo Recoleta1.34
Recent Form (Last 5)
Nacional Asuncion Nacional Asuncion
WWDLW
23 GF / 18 GA
Deportivo Recoleta Deportivo Recoleta
WLDWL
26 GF / 22 GA
Key Stats
1.35
Average Goals Scored
1.53
1.06
Average Goals Conceded
1.29
11
BTTS Yes
10
7
Over 2.5
9
3.59
Shots on Goal
3.82

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Nacional Asuncion Nacional Asuncion 17 matches
Deportivo Recoleta Deportivo Recoleta 17 matches
Nacional Asuncion Statistic Deportivo Recoleta
6 Wins 6
8 Draws 4
3 Losses 7
23 Goals For 26
18 Goals Against 22
1.35 Avg Goals Scored 1.53
1.06 Avg Goals Conceded 1.29
11 BTTS Yes 10
13 Over 1.5 13
7 Over 2.5 9
3 Over 3.5 5
5 Clean Sheets 4
3 Failed To Score 3
3.59 Shots On Goal 3.82
10.88 Total Shots 10.76
4 Corners 3.71
48.9% Ball Possession 53.2%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This fixture has the profile of a tight matchup, with two sides with a fairly similar football identity likely to keep the contest close. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Deportivo Recoleta. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Nacional Asuncion expected to line up in 3-4-3 and Deportivo Recoleta in 4-4-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Deportivo Recoleta having the stronger overall control. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

Nacional Asuncion Analysis

Nacional Asuncion arrive from the upper part of the table, holding 5 place with 26 points after 17 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 6 wins, 8 draws, and 3 losses, while the -:- goal ratio supports the view of poor form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on I. Valdez (4 goals), A. Samudio (2 goals), D. J. Colman Escobar (2 goals), with creative support from A. D. Canete Torres (3 assists), I. Valdez (2 assists), O. Gaona Lugo (2 assists), and defensively they have been fairly stable. At home, their split return of - wins, - draws, and - losses fits an unclear split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically, they usually display a balanced approach.

Deportivo Recoleta Analysis

Deportivo Recoleta sit 7 with 22 points after 17 league matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 6 wins, 4 draws, and 7 losses, while the -:- goal ratio supports the view of good form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on A. Wlk (7 goals), A. Gonzalez (6 goals), Richard Ortiz (3 goals), with creative support from W. Baez (7 assists), K. Parzajuk (3 assists), P. Rios (2 assists), and defensively they have been fairly stable. Away from home, the record of - wins, - draws, and - losses points toward an unclear split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader style still suggests a balanced approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 7 head-to-head meetings, Nacional Asuncion won 2 times, Deportivo Recoleta won 1 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 7:6 from Nacional Asuncion's perspective. 2 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 4 matches, with an average of 1.86 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 1X (100%)
Predicted formations: Nacional Asuncion 3-4-3 / Deportivo Recoleta 4-4-2
H2H summary: Nacional Asuncion wins 2, draws 4, Deportivo Recoleta wins 1
Stats
Nacional Asuncion Nacional Asuncion
Deportivo Recoleta Deportivo Recoleta
Shots on Goal
6
Shots on Goal
2
Shots off Goal
8
Shots off Goal
5
Blocked Shots
6
Blocked Shots
1
14 Corner Kicks 4
10 Fouls 6
2 Offsides 1
65% Ball Possession 35%
20 Total Shots 7
6 Shots on Goal 2
8 Shots off Goal 5
6 Blocked Shots 1
12 Shots insidebox 4
8 Shots outsidebox 3
1 Goalkeeper Saves 4
517 Total passes 287
444 Passes accurate 209
1.43 expected_goals 1.11
🟨 3 Yellow Cards 4 🟨
🟥 0 Red Cards 1 🟥

Lineups

Nacional Asuncion
Formation
Deportivo Recoleta
S. Rojas
S. Rojas
J. Feliu
J. Feliu
A. D. Canete Torres
A. D. Canete Torres
T. Gutierrez
T. Gutierrez
S. Vargas
🎯
S. Vargas
F. Jara
🎯
F. Jara
R. C. Ramirez Antunez
R. C. Ramirez Antunez
H. A. Benitez
H. A. Benitez
J. Santacruz
J. Santacruz
M. Cabrera
M. Cabrera
C. R. Santa
C. R. Santa
N. Ferreira
N. Ferreira
F. A. Echeguren Zarza
F. A. Echeguren Zarza
N. Marotta
N. Marotta
L. Monzon
L. Monzon
P. Rios
P. Rios
J. Falcon
J. Falcon
J. Espinola
J. Espinola
A. Franco
A. Franco
J. Noguera
J. Noguera
R. Ortiz
R. Ortiz
A. Wlk
A. Wlk
Nacional Asuncion 4-2-3-1
Starting XI
30
S. Rojas
G
21
J. Feliu
D
3
A. D. Canete Torres
D
4
T. Gutierrez
D
29
S. Vargas
🎯 85'
8
F. Jara
🎯 50'
M
25
R. C. Ramirez Antunez
↓ 68' 🟨 25'
M
9
H. A. Benitez
↓ 76'
17
J. Santacruz
↓ 46'
M
31
M. Cabrera
↓ 46'
M
24
C. R. Santa
⚽ 50' ↓ 77'
F
Substitutes
1
G. Ortiz
G
33
O. Gaona Lugo
↑ 46'
M
7
I. Bailone
⚽ 85' ↑ 77'
F
27
R. Prieto
F
10
C. Arrua
↑ 68' 🟨 90+3'
M
23
C. Espinola
D
15
L. Caceres
D
6
S. Torales
M
22
D. J. Colman Escobar
↑ 46'
M
5
G. Benitez
D
19
L. Gonzales
↑ 76'
26
M. Coronel
D
Deportivo Recoleta 4-4-2
Starting XI
12
N. Ferreira
G
2
F. A. Echeguren Zarza
🟨 89'
D
5
N. Marotta
🟨 90+3'
D
32
L. Monzon
D
18
P. Rios
↓ 90'
D
37
J. Falcon
↓ 46'
M
6
J. Espinola
↓ 90'
M
38
A. Franco
🟨 28' 🟨 43' 🟥 43'
M
10
J. Noguera
↓ 64'
M
9
R. Ortiz
↓ 50'
F
29
A. Wlk
⚽ 9' ↓ 46'
F
Substitutes
13
O. Toledo
G
3
L. Cardozo
D
17
W. Baez
↑ 46'
F
27
J. C. Dominguez Castillo
4
M. Pereira
D
31
M. Schupp
M
25
D. Mosquera
↑ 64'
D
7
R. Dominguez
↑ 46'
M
24
T. Vidal
↑ 90'
F
19
H. Lopez
↑ 90'
M
15
B. Medina
D
36
B. Ferreira
↑ 50'
Last matches: Nacional Asuncion
25.07.26
Div
Nacional Asuncion
Sportivo Ameliano
1
1
D
24.05.26
Div
Nacional Asuncion
Libertad Asuncion
2
1
W
15.05.26
Div
Nacional Asuncion
Rubio NU
1
1
D
09.05.26
Div
Nacional Asuncion
Sportivo Trinidense
2
1
W
03.05.26
Div
Nacional Asuncion
Club Guarani
1
0
W
20.04.26
Div
Nacional Asuncion
Sportivo Ameliano
1
1
D
11.04.26
Div
Nacional Asuncion
Cerro Porteno
0
0
D
04.04.26
Div
Nacional Asuncion
Olimpia
0
3
L
31.03.26
Div
Nacional Asuncion
2 de Mayo
1
1
D
27.03.26
Div
Nacional Asuncion
Sportivo Luqueno
3
2
W
22.03.26
Div
Nacional Asuncion
Club Sp. San Lorenzo
0
0
D
18.03.26
Div
Nacional Asuncion
Libertad Asuncion
1
2
L
15.03.26
Div
Nacional Asuncion
Rubio NU
1
0
W
09.03.26
Div
Nacional Asuncion
Sportivo Trinidense
1
1
D
01.03.26
Div
Nacional Asuncion
Club Guarani
1
1
D
26.02.26
Div
Nacional Asuncion
Deportivo Recoleta
2
2
D
19.02.26
Div
Nacional Asuncion
Sportivo Ameliano
1
1
D
15.02.26
Div
Nacional Asuncion
Cerro Porteno
2
0
W
08.02.26
Div
Nacional Asuncion
Olimpia
1
2
L
31.01.26
Div
Nacional Asuncion
2 de Mayo
5
1
W
Last matches: Deportivo Recoleta
25.07.26
Div
Deportivo Recoleta
Club Sp. San Lorenzo
1
1
D
23.05.26
Div
Deportivo Recoleta
Club Guarani
2
1
W
15.05.26
Div
Deportivo Recoleta
Olimpia
2
3
L
11.05.26
Div
Deportivo Recoleta
Sportivo Ameliano
2
3
L
03.05.26
Div
Deportivo Recoleta
Cerro Porteno
2
1
W
18.04.26
Div
Deportivo Recoleta
2 de Mayo
5
0
W
11.04.26
Div
Deportivo Recoleta
Sportivo Luqueno
1
2
L
04.04.26
Div
Deportivo Recoleta
Club Sp. San Lorenzo
4
2
W
30.03.26
Div
Deportivo Recoleta
Libertad Asuncion
0
1
L
26.03.26
Div
Deportivo Recoleta
Rubio NU
1
0
W
23.03.26
Div
Deportivo Recoleta
Sportivo Trinidense
2
3
L
18.03.26
Div
Deportivo Recoleta
Club Guarani
1
3
L
14.03.26
Div
Deportivo Recoleta
Olimpia
0
1
L
09.03.26
Div
Deportivo Recoleta
Sportivo Ameliano
1
1
D
01.03.26
Div
Deportivo Recoleta
Cerro Porteno
0
2
L
26.02.26
Div
Deportivo Recoleta
Nacional Asuncion
2
2
D
20.02.26
Div
Deportivo Recoleta
2 de Mayo
1
0
W
13.02.26
Div
Deportivo Recoleta
Sportivo Luqueno
1
2
L
06.02.26
Div
Deportivo Recoleta
Club Sp. San Lorenzo
3
0
W
02.02.26
Div
Deportivo Recoleta
Libertad Asuncion
2
1
W
H2H: Nacional Asuncion vs Deportivo Recoleta
24.04.26
H2H
Nacional Asuncion
Deportivo Recoleta
2
1
W
05.03.26
H2H
Nacional Asuncion
Deportivo Recoleta
1
1
D
26.02.26
H2H
Deportivo Recoleta
Nacional Asuncion
2
2
D
27.11.25
H2H
Deportivo Recoleta
Nacional Asuncion
0
0
D
06.09.25
H2H
Nacional Asuncion
Deportivo Recoleta
1
0
W
21.04.25
H2H
Nacional Asuncion
Deportivo Recoleta
1
1
D
08.02.25
H2H
Deportivo Recoleta
Nacional Asuncion
1
0
L
Last matches: Nacional Asuncion
24.05.26
Div
Nacional Asuncion
Libertad Asuncion
2
1
W
09.05.26
Div
Nacional Asuncion
Sportivo Trinidense
2
1
W
11.04.26
Div
Nacional Asuncion
Cerro Porteno
0
0
D
27.03.26
Div
Nacional Asuncion
Sportivo Luqueno
3
2
W
15.03.26
Div
Nacional Asuncion
Rubio NU
1
0
W
01.03.26
Div
Nacional Asuncion
Club Guarani
1
1
D
19.02.26
Div
Nacional Asuncion
Sportivo Ameliano
1
1
D
08.02.26
Div
Nacional Asuncion
Olimpia
1
2
L
31.01.26
Div
Nacional Asuncion
2 de Mayo
5
1
W
24.01.26
Div
Nacional Asuncion
Club Sp. San Lorenzo
1
0
W
H2H at home: Nacional Asuncion
24.04.26
H2H
Nacional Asuncion
Deportivo Recoleta
2
1
W
05.03.26
H2H
Nacional Asuncion
Deportivo Recoleta
1
1
D
06.09.25
H2H
Nacional Asuncion
Deportivo Recoleta
1
0
W
21.04.25
H2H
Nacional Asuncion
Deportivo Recoleta
1
1
D
Last matches: Deportivo Recoleta
15.05.26
Div
Deportivo Recoleta
Olimpia
2
3
L
11.05.26
Div
Deportivo Recoleta
Sportivo Ameliano
2
3
L
11.04.26
Div
Deportivo Recoleta
Sportivo Luqueno
1
2
L
30.03.26
Div
Deportivo Recoleta
Libertad Asuncion
0
1
L
23.03.26
Div
Deportivo Recoleta
Sportivo Trinidense
2
3
L
18.03.26
Div
Deportivo Recoleta
Club Guarani
1
3
L
01.03.26
Div
Deportivo Recoleta
Cerro Porteno
0
2
L
20.02.26
Div
Deportivo Recoleta
2 de Mayo
1
0
W
06.02.26
Div
Deportivo Recoleta
Club Sp. San Lorenzo
3
0
W
29.01.26
Div
Deportivo Recoleta
Rubio NU
1
1
D
H2H away: Deportivo Recoleta
24.04.26
H2H
Nacional Asuncion
Deportivo Recoleta
2
1
L
05.03.26
H2H
Nacional Asuncion
Deportivo Recoleta
1
1
D
06.09.25
H2H
Nacional Asuncion
Deportivo Recoleta
1
0
L
21.04.25
H2H
Nacional Asuncion
Deportivo Recoleta
1
1
D

Standings

Primera Division: Apertura
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 22 15 4 3 37:17 20 49
W W L D L
2 22 10 9 3 31:22 9 39
W D W W W
3 22 11 5 6 30:22 8 38
W L D L D
4 22 8 9 5 27:21 6 33
L L W D D
5 22 8 8 6 30:24 6 32
W W L L L
6 22 9 4 9 34:26 8 31
L D W W W
7 22 7 8 7 27:23 4 29
L W D L D
8 22 8 4 10 35:32 3 28
W L L W L
9 22 6 5 11 15:26 -11 23
L D L D W
10 22 5 7 10 18:35 -17 22
L D W W D
11 22 5 5 12 24:33 -9 20
L D L D W
12 22 3 6 13 14:41 -27 15
W D W L L
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Group Stage)