KENYA SUPER LEAGUE
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Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 54.9%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 88.3%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 87.5%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
54.9%
-
BTTS BTTS No
88.3%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
87.5%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
-
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
-
Correct Score 0-2
-
-
Probability Distribution
Mwatate United Win 35.3%
Draw 9.8%
Kibera Black Stars Win 54.9%
Expected Goals (xG)
Mwatate United0.81
Kibera Black Stars1.18
Recent Form (Last 5)
Mwatate United Mwatate United
WWDLW
26 GF / 51 GA
Kibera Black Stars Kibera Black Stars
WLDWL
27 GF / 24 GA
Key Stats
0.84
Average Goals Scored
0.87
1.65
Average Goals Conceded
0.77
14
BTTS Yes
9
16
Over 2.5
7
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Mwatate United Mwatate United 31 matches
Kibera Black Stars Kibera Black Stars 31 matches
Mwatate United Statistic Kibera Black Stars
6 Wins 15
6 Draws 5
19 Losses 11
26 Goals For 27
51 Goals Against 24
0.84 Avg Goals Scored 0.87
1.65 Avg Goals Conceded 0.77
14 BTTS Yes 9
21 Over 1.5 14
16 Over 2.5 7
10 Over 3.5 1
4 Clean Sheets 14
15 Failed To Score 11
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by Kibera Black Stars's more proactive style and Mwatate United's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Kibera Black Stars. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. Kibera Black Stars carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 7 with 50 points while Mwatate United sit 19 on 24, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Kibera Black Stars having the stronger overall control. Mwatate United have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

Mwatate United Analysis

With 24 points from 31 games and a place of 19, Mwatate United still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Across the season they have posted 6 wins, 6 draws, and 19 defeats, and the 26:51 goal record continues to suggest poor form with results showing a clear downward trend. Their attacking burden often falls on their main attacking players, while at the back they have been quite vulnerable. At home, they have managed 5 wins, 3 draws, and 7 losses, a return that supports a fairly balanced split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

Kibera Black Stars Analysis

From their first 31 matches, Kibera Black Stars have collected 50 points and now occupy 7 place in the table. The record of 15 wins, 5 draws, and 11 defeats, together with a 27:24 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through their main attacking players, while at the back they have looked very solid. Away from home, the record of 7 wins, 1 draws, and 7 losses points toward a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 6 head-to-head meetings, Mwatate United won 1 times, Kibera Black Stars won 3 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 6:8 from Mwatate United's perspective. 2 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 3 matches, with an average of 2.33 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (90.2%)
H2H summary: Mwatate United wins 1, draws 2, Kibera Black Stars wins 3
Last matches: Mwatate United
13.06.26
Sup
Mwatate United
Equity Bank
0
2
L
28.05.26
Sup
Mwatate United
Naivas
0
2
L
24.05.26
Sup
Mwatate United
Mombasa Elite
0
1
L
17.05.26
Sup
Mwatate United
Luanda Villa
0
2
L
02.05.26
Sup
Mwatate United
Fortune Sacco
0
1
L
25.04.26
Sup
Mwatate United
MOFA
2
3
L
18.04.26
Sup
Mwatate United
Vihiga United FC
3
1
W
11.04.26
Sup
Mwatate United
Talanta
1
2
L
04.04.26
Sup
Mwatate United
Soy United
0
2
L
28.03.26
Sup
Mwatate United
Migori Youth
1
0
W
21.03.26
Sup
Mwatate United
Nzoia Sugar
1
3
L
14.03.26
Sup
Mwatate United
Kisumu All Stars
0
1
L
07.03.26
Sup
Mwatate United
Nairobi City Stars
0
1
L
28.02.26
Sup
Mwatate United
Gucha Stars
3
1
W
22.02.26
Sup
Mwatate United
Kabati Youth FC
0
2
L
15.02.26
Sup
Mwatate United
Darajani Gogo
2
2
D
01.02.26
Sup
Mwatate United
Kisumu All Stars
0
0
D
25.01.26
Sup
Mwatate United
Soy United
0
1
L
18.01.26
Sup
Mwatate United
Talanta
2
1
W
11.01.26
Sup
Mwatate United
Vihiga United FC
2
1
W
Last matches: Kibera Black Stars
13.06.26
Sup
Kibera Black Stars
Nzoia Sugar
0
1
L
07.06.26
Sup
Kibera Black Stars
MCF
1
2
L
01.06.26
Sup
Kibera Black Stars
MOFA
1
1
D
27.05.26
Sup
Kibera Black Stars
Nairobi City Stars
1
1
D
23.05.26
Sup
Kibera Black Stars
Migori Youth
0
1
L
16.05.26
Sup
Kibera Black Stars
3K
1
2
L
02.05.26
Sup
Kibera Black Stars
Gucha Stars
0
0
D
25.04.26
Sup
Kibera Black Stars
Fortune Sacco
1
1
D
19.04.26
Sup
Kibera Black Stars
Luanda Villa
1
0
W
11.04.26
Sup
Kibera Black Stars
Mombasa Elite
2
0
W
03.04.26
Sup
Kibera Black Stars
Naivas
1
2
L
29.03.26
Sup
Kibera Black Stars
Talanta
2
1
W
21.03.26
Sup
Kibera Black Stars
Kisumu All Stars
1
0
W
14.03.26
Sup
Kibera Black Stars
Vihiga United FC
0
1
L
07.03.26
Sup
Kibera Black Stars
Darajani Gogo
1
0
W
28.02.26
Sup
Kibera Black Stars
Kabati Youth FC
1
0
W
22.02.26
Sup
Kibera Black Stars
Equity Bank
1
2
L
14.02.26
Sup
Kibera Black Stars
Soy United
1
0
W
01.02.26
Sup
Kibera Black Stars
Vihiga United FC
1
2
L
24.01.26
Sup
Kibera Black Stars
Naivas
1
1
D
H2H: Mwatate United vs Kibera Black Stars
10.05.26
H2H
Mwatate United
Kibera Black Stars
1
1
D
07.12.25
H2H
Kibera Black Stars
Mwatate United
2
1
L
29.04.23
H2H
Kibera Black Stars
Mwatate United
1
4
W
06.01.23
H2H
Mwatate United
Kibera Black Stars
0
2
L
17.04.22
H2H
Mwatate United
Kibera Black Stars
0
2
L
15.12.21
H2H
Kibera Black Stars
Mwatate United
0
0
D
Last matches: Mwatate United
28.05.26
Sup
Mwatate United
Naivas
0
2
L
24.05.26
Sup
Mwatate United
Mombasa Elite
0
1
L
18.04.26
Sup
Mwatate United
Vihiga United FC
3
1
W
04.04.26
Sup
Mwatate United
Soy United
0
2
L
28.03.26
Sup
Mwatate United
Migori Youth
1
0
W
14.03.26
Sup
Mwatate United
Kisumu All Stars
0
1
L
28.02.26
Sup
Mwatate United
Gucha Stars
3
1
W
15.02.26
Sup
Mwatate United
Darajani Gogo
2
2
D
18.01.26
Sup
Mwatate United
Talanta
2
1
W
21.12.25
Sup
Mwatate United
MOFA
0
4
L
12.12.25
Sup
Mwatate United
Fortune Sacco
1
3
L
03.12.25
Sup
Mwatate United
Luanda Villa
0
1
L
22.11.25
Sup
Mwatate United
Nairobi City Stars
0
2
L
09.11.25
Sup
Mwatate United
Kabati Youth FC
1
0
W
28.10.25
Sup
Mwatate United
Equity Bank
2
2
D
12.10.25
Sup
Mwatate United
MCF
0
3
L
04.10.25
Sup
Mwatate United
Nzoia Sugar
2
2
D
H2H at home: Mwatate United
10.05.26
H2H
Mwatate United
Kibera Black Stars
1
1
D
06.01.23
H2H
Mwatate United
Kibera Black Stars
0
2
L
17.04.22
H2H
Mwatate United
Kibera Black Stars
0
2
L
Last matches: Kibera Black Stars
13.06.26
Sup
Kibera Black Stars
Nzoia Sugar
0
1
L
01.06.26
Sup
Kibera Black Stars
MOFA
1
1
D
23.05.26
Sup
Kibera Black Stars
Migori Youth
0
1
L
19.04.26
Sup
Kibera Black Stars
Luanda Villa
1
0
W
03.04.26
Sup
Kibera Black Stars
Naivas
1
2
L
29.03.26
Sup
Kibera Black Stars
Talanta
2
1
W
07.03.26
Sup
Kibera Black Stars
Darajani Gogo
1
0
W
22.02.26
Sup
Kibera Black Stars
Equity Bank
1
2
L
01.02.26
Sup
Kibera Black Stars
Vihiga United FC
1
2
L
18.01.26
Sup
Kibera Black Stars
Mombasa Elite
0
2
L
21.12.25
Sup
Kibera Black Stars
Fortune Sacco
0
0
D
13.12.25
Sup
Kibera Black Stars
Gucha Stars
1
0
W
04.12.25
Sup
Kibera Black Stars
3K
0
2
L
30.11.25
Sup
Kibera Black Stars
Kabati Youth FC
0
1
L
16.11.25
Sup
Kibera Black Stars
Soy United
0
2
L
01.11.25
Sup
Kibera Black Stars
MCF
2
0
W
26.10.25
Sup
Kibera Black Stars
Nairobi City Stars
3
2
W
05.10.25
Sup
Kibera Black Stars
Kisumu All Stars
1
0
W
H2H away: Kibera Black Stars
10.05.26
H2H
Mwatate United
Kibera Black Stars
1
1
D
06.01.23
H2H
Mwatate United
Kibera Black Stars
0
2
W
17.04.22
H2H
Mwatate United
Kibera Black Stars
0
2
W

Standings

Super League
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 38 25 6 7 57:29 28 81
D W W W W
2 38 23 8 7 62:26 36 77
D W W D D
3 38 24 4 10 51:32 19 76
D W L D W
4 38 21 11 6 56:28 28 74
W L W W D
5 38 16 16 6 51:30 21 64
D D D D L
6 38 18 9 11 61:41 20 63
W W L L L
7 38 17 10 11 47:30 17 61
D L W W W
8 38 16 9 13 53:41 12 57
L W L W W
9 38 15 8 15 32:33 -1 53
L L D D L
10 38 14 10 14 31:27 4 52
W D L D W
11 38 12 14 12 37:36 1 50
W L W L L
12 38 12 8 18 35:41 -6 44
W L W L W
13 38 12 7 19 30:51 -21 43
L D W L L
14 38 10 9 19 32:52 -20 39
D W W W L
15 38 10 9 19 23:47 -24 39
W L L D W
16 38 9 12 17 32:44 -12 39
L L L D D
17 38 10 8 20 27:48 -21 38
W W L D W
18 38 9 10 19 24:42 -18 34
L W W L D
19 38 9 9 20 29:55 -26 30
L D L W L
20 38 6 7 25 27:64 -37 25
L L L L L
Promotion - Premier League
Relegation