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TURKEY › 1. LIG
15.10.2026 17:00
Mugla Ataturk Stadyumu
Referee: Ilker Yasin Avci

Muğlaspor vs Bursaspor Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 65.4%
Odds 1.61
BTTS
Yes
Probability 82.5%
Odds 1.83
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 77.2%
Odds 1.89
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
65.4%
1.61 ▥
BTTS Yes
82.5%
1.83 ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
77.2%
1.89 ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
1.51 ▥
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
4.50 ▥
Correct Score 1-2
-
19.00 ▥
Probability Distribution
Muğlaspor Win 30.5%
Draw 4.1%
Bursaspor Win 65.4%
Expected Goals (xG)
Muğlaspor0.96
Bursaspor1.39
Recent Form (Last 5)
Muğlaspor Muğlaspor
WWDLW
9 GF / 8 GA
Bursaspor Bursaspor
WLDWL
19 GF / 10 GA
Key Stats
1
Average Goals Scored
1.73
0.89
Average Goals Conceded
0.91
4
BTTS Yes
7
2
Over 2.5
8
4
Shots on Goal
4.56

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Muğlaspor Muğlaspor 9 matches
Bursaspor Bursaspor 11 matches
Muğlaspor Statistic Bursaspor
2 Wins 7
6 Draws 2
1 Losses 2
9 Goals For 19
8 Goals Against 10
1 Avg Goals Scored 1.73
0.89 Avg Goals Conceded 0.91
4 BTTS Yes 7
6 Over 1.5 9
2 Over 2.5 8
2 Over 3.5 2
4 Clean Sheets 4
3 Failed To Score 1
4 Shots On Goal 4.56
11.22 Total Shots 14.44
4.56 Corners 6
49.8% Ball Possession 59.6%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Muğlaspor expected to line up in 4-4-2 and Bursaspor in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Bursaspor having the stronger overall control. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Bursaspor look sharper on recent form, and that momentum could be important in key phases of the match. Given the broader gap between the sides, Away Win looks like the most logical direction, while the clean-sheet expectation leans toward Bursaspor. Bursaspor carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 2 with 19 points while Muğlaspor sit 10 on 11, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output.

Muğlaspor Analysis

From their first 8 matches, Muğlaspor have collected 11 points and now occupy 10 place in the table. Across the campaign, they have posted 2 wins, 5 draws, and 1 losses, while the 8:7 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form and have been stuck in a sequence of draws. Going forward they rely heavily on Yasin Uzunoğlu (4 goals), Luis Mago (1 goals), Ahmet Engin (1 goals), with creative support from Poyraz Efe Yıldırım (2 assists), Driton Camaj (2 assists), Daniel Avramovski (1 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. At home, their split return of 1 wins, 3 draws, and 0 losses fits a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football.

Bursaspor Analysis

Bursaspor approach this game with the confidence of a side sitting 2 on 19 points after 8 outings. The return of 6 wins, 1 draws, and 1 defeats, together with goals at 16:7, reflects very strong form with results showing strong momentum. Much of their attacking edge comes through Kelechi Iheanacho (9 goals), Lincoln (2 goals), Alperen Babacan (1 goals), with creative support from Kelechi Iheanacho (2 assists), Lincoln (1 assists), Alperen Babacan (1 assists), while their defending has remained very solid. Away from home, the split of 4 wins, 0 draws, and 1 losses supports the view of a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their football identity still points toward balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 1 head-to-head meetings, Muğlaspor won 0 times, Bursaspor won 1 times, while 0 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 1:3 from Muğlaspor's perspective. 1 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 1 matches, with an average of 4 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (95.9%)
Predicted formations: Muğlaspor 4-4-2 / Bursaspor 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Muğlaspor wins 0, draws 0, Bursaspor wins 1

Standings

Lig A
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 8 1 1 22:5 17 25
W W W W W
2 10 6 2 2 14:8 6 20
D W D W W
3 9 6 1 2 17:9 8 19
L W D W W
4 10 6 1 3 20:17 3 19
W L L L W
5 10 4 5 1 19:10 9 17
D W D D W
6 9 4 3 2 11:6 5 15
W L L W D
7 10 4 3 3 13:14 -1 15
L D W D L
8 10 5 0 5 15:17 -2 15
L W W W L
9 10 3 5 2 15:6 9 14
D W L D W
10 9 3 4 2 13:12 1 13
D W D L D
11 10 2 6 2 14:13 1 12
D W D D W
12 9 2 6 1 9:8 1 12
D D D D W
13 10 2 5 3 11:9 2 11
W L D W L
14 10 2 4 4 12:19 -7 10
L L D D W
15 9 2 3 4 14:15 -1 9
L L D L L
16 9 1 5 3 5:10 -5 8
W L D L D
17 9 1 4 4 7:10 -3 7
D W L L
18 10 2 3 5 10:20 -10 7
W L L D D
19 10 1 2 7 9:24 -15 5
L L W L L
20 9 0 1 8 3:21 -18 1
L L D L
Promotion - Super Lig
Promotion - 1. Lig (Play Offs: Final)
Promotion - 1. Lig (Play Offs: Quarter-finals)
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