FINLAND YKKöSLIIGA
29.07.2026 15:30
FT
2 - 1
Mikkelin Urheilupuisto
Referee: V. Smirnov
MP
Match Timeline
KäPa
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
3'
M. Kuningas
KäPa
22'
A. Tervaniemi · Assist: R. Kawale
MP
🔄
25'
V. Laiho ↔ A. Ring
MP
🟨
29'
S. Puputti
KäPa
🟨
32'
R. Huhtamaki
KäPa
45'
S. Obioha · Assist: V. Janhunen
MP
🔄
46'
V. Jokiranta ↔ D. Ripatti
KäPa
🔄
60'
A. Tervaniemi ↔ S. Atakayi
MP
🔄
60'
M. Koivuniemi ↔ M. Kastrati
MP
🔄
68'
R. Huhtamaki ↔ E. Ahola
KäPa
🔄
68'
Y. Lika ↔ S. Shinyella
KäPa
🔄
68'
D. Rokman ↔ D. Cukici
KäPa
🟨
69'
U. Huhtamaki
KäPa
🟨
73'
A. Chishima
MP
🔄
85'
R. Kawale ↔ S. Stenius
MP
🟨
86'
M. Kuningas
KäPa

MP vs KäPa Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 75.3%
Odds -
1 agree / 0 disagree
BTTS
Yes
Probability 86%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 82.2%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
75.3%
-
BTTS Yes
86%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
82.2%
-
Corners O/U Under 11.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
MP Win 75.3%
Draw 15.5%
KäPa Win 9.3%
Expected Goals (xG)
MP1.39
KäPa1.26
Recent Form (Last 5)
MP MP
WWDLW
28 GF / 31 GA
KäPa KäPa
WLDWL
22 GF / 30 GA
Key Stats
1.27
Average Goals Scored
1.16
1.41
Average Goals Conceded
1.58
12
BTTS Yes
11
10
Over 2.5
12
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

MP MP 22 matches
KäPa KäPa 19 matches
MP Statistic KäPa
8 Wins 6
4 Draws 4
10 Losses 9
28 Goals For 22
31 Goals Against 30
1.27 Avg Goals Scored 1.16
1.41 Avg Goals Conceded 1.58
12 BTTS Yes 11
15 Over 1.5 14
10 Over 2.5 12
7 Over 3.5 7
4 Clean Sheets 3
6 Failed To Score 6
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This fixture has the profile of a tight matchup, with two sides with a fairly similar football identity likely to keep the contest close. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward KäPa having the stronger overall control. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring KäPa. KäPa arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly.

MP Analysis

MP sit 6 with 17 points after 15 league matches. The record of 5 wins, 2 draws, and 8 defeats, together with a 14:19 goal balance, points toward poor form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through their main attacking players, while at the back they have looked very solid. At home, the record of 3 wins, 1 draws, and 2 losses points toward a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader style still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

KäPa Analysis

KäPa approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 7 with 16 points from 15 matches. Their record of 4 wins, 4 draws, and 7 losses, together with goals at 17:24, reflects poor form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through their main attacking players, while the defensive numbers suggest they have been very solid. Away from home, they have managed 2 wins, 1 draws, and 4 losses, a return that supports a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 9 head-to-head meetings, MP won 2 times, KäPa won 6 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 15:23 from MP's perspective. 6 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 6 matches, with an average of 4.22 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 1X (90.7%)
H2H summary: MP wins 2, draws 1, KäPa wins 6

Standings

Ykkösliiga
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 24 18 3 3 44:21 23 57
W W W W W
2 24 14 6 4 41:18 23 48
L W D W W
3 24 13 5 6 45:26 19 44
W D L L W
4 24 11 7 6 32:21 11 40
L W L W W
5 24 11 2 11 22:34 -12 35
W L W D L
6 24 8 4 12 28:36 -8 28
L D D L L
7
MP Home
24 8 4 12 26:34 -8 28
W D W L L
8
KäPa Away
24 5 6 13 27:43 -16 21
W L D D L
9 24 4 8 12 28:36 -8 20
L L D W W
10 24 2 7 15 16:40 -24 13
L D L L L
Promotion - Veikkausliiga
Promotion - Veikkausliiga (Promotion)
Ykkosliiga (Relegation)
Relegation - Ykkonen