FINLAND YKKöSLIIGA
19.04.2026 13:00
FT
0 - 1
Mikkelin Urheilupuisto
Referee: M. Haapakoski
MP
Match Timeline
KäPa
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
25'
D. Cukici · Assist: N. Leinonen
KäPa
🟨
45'
P. Hietalahti
KäPa
🟨
54'
S. Atakayi
MP
🔄
56'
S. Saidy ↔ V. Karttunen
MP
🔄
65'
S. Stenius ↔ M. Ahmad Al Sheikh
MP
🔄
68'
P. Lindberg ↔ S. Puputti
KäPa
🔄
68'
S. Savini ↔ N. Nurmi
KäPa
🔄
68'
A. Almen ↔ D. Rokman
KäPa
🔄
78'
N. Forsell ↔ O. Hayhanen
MP
🟨
88'
T. Koivuranta
KäPa
🔄
90'
Y. Lika ↔ D. Ripatti
KäPa

MP vs KäPa Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 54.9%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 70.5%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 75.1%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
54.9%
-
BTTS BTTS Yes
70.5%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
75.1%
-
Probability Distribution
MP Win 37.3%
Draw 7.8%
KäPa Win 54.9%
Expected Goals (xG)
MP1.31
KäPa1.51
Recent Form (Last 5)
MP MP
WWDLW
11 GF / 11 GA
KäPa KäPa
WLDWL
8 GF / 6 GA
Key Stats
1.38
Average Goals Scored
1.6
1.38
Average Goals Conceded
1.2
4
BTTS Yes
3
3
Over 2.5
3
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

MP MP 8 matches
KäPa KäPa 5 matches
MP Statistic KäPa
3 Wins 3
1 Draws 1
4 Losses 1
11 Goals For 8
11 Goals Against 6
1.38 Avg Goals Scored 1.6
1.38 Avg Goals Conceded 1.2
4 BTTS Yes 3
6 Over 1.5 3
3 Over 2.5 3
2 Over 3.5 2
0 Clean Sheets 1
4 Failed To Score 1
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From the opening view, this looks like a meeting between teams arriving with different levels of stability, reinforced by KäPa's more proactive style and MP's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors KäPa. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward KäPa having the stronger overall control. KäPa carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 2 with 4 points while MP sit 9 on 0, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected.

MP Analysis

From their first 2 matches, MP have collected 0 points and now occupy 9 place in the table. Their overall return of 0 wins, 0 draws, and 2 losses with goals at 0:2 reflects poor form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by their main attacking players, while defensively they have appeared very solid. At home, the record of 0 wins, 0 draws, and 0 losses points toward an unclear split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

KäPa Analysis

KäPa come into this match from a strong league position, sitting 2 with 4 points from 2 matches. The record of 1 wins, 1 draws, and 0 defeats, together with a 4:3 goal balance, points toward poor form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through Y. Lika (3 goals), N. Nurmi (1 goals), with creative support from N. Nurmi (1 assists), R. Huhtamaki (1 assists), while at the back they have looked very solid. Away from home, they have returned 1 wins, 0 draws, and 0 losses, a split that suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 9 head-to-head meetings, MP won 2 times, KäPa won 6 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 15:23 from MP's perspective. 6 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 6 matches, with an average of 4.22 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (92.2%)
H2H summary: MP wins 2, draws 1, KäPa wins 6

Standings

Ykkosliiga
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 21 15 3 3 36:21 15 48
W W W W W
2 21 13 5 3 37:14 23 44
W W D W L
3 21 12 4 5 41:22 19 40
L W W W W
4 21 10 7 4 29:17 12 37
W W L L W
5 21 9 2 10 18:29 -11 29
D L L W L
6 21 8 2 11 26:33 -7 26
L L W W W
7
MP Home
21 6 3 12 22:33 -11 21
L L L L W
8 21 4 7 10 25:29 -4 19
W W D L L
9
KäPa Away
21 4 5 12 21:35 -14 17
D L L L L
10 21 2 6 13 11:33 -22 12
L L W L L
Promotion - Veikkausliiga
Promotion - Veikkausliiga (Promotion)
Ykkosliiga (Relegation)
Relegation - Ykkonen