FINLAND YKKöSLIIGA
--.--.---- --:--
FT
0 - 1
Mikkelin Urheilupuisto
Referee: M. Haapakoski
MP
Match Timeline
KäPa
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
25'
D. Cukici · Assist: N. Leinonen
KäPa
🟨
45'
P. Hietalahti
KäPa
🟨
54'
S. Atakayi
MP
🔄
56'
S. Saidy ↔ V. Karttunen
MP
🔄
65'
S. Stenius ↔ M. Ahmad Al Sheikh
MP
🔄
68'
P. Lindberg ↔ S. Puputti
KäPa
🔄
68'
S. Savini ↔ N. Nurmi
KäPa
🔄
68'
A. Almen ↔ D. Rokman
KäPa
🔄
78'
N. Forsell ↔ O. Hayhanen
MP
🟨
88'
T. Koivuranta
KäPa
🔄
90'
Y. Lika ↔ D. Ripatti
KäPa

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 54.9%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 70.5%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 75.1%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
54.9%
-
BTTS BTTS Yes
70.5%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
75.1%
-
Probability Distribution
MP Win 37.3%
Draw 7.8%
KäPa Win 54.9%
Expected Goals (xG)
MP1.31
KäPa1.51
Recent Form (Last 5)
MP MP
WWDLW
11 GF / 11 GA
KäPa KäPa
WLDWL
8 GF / 6 GA
Key Stats
1.38
Average Goals Scored
1.6
1.38
Average Goals Conceded
1.2
4
BTTS Yes
3
3
Over 2.5
3
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

MP MP 8 matches
KäPa KäPa 5 matches
MP Statistic KäPa
3 Wins 3
1 Draws 1
4 Losses 1
11 Goals For 8
11 Goals Against 6
1.38 Avg Goals Scored 1.6
1.38 Avg Goals Conceded 1.2
4 BTTS Yes 3
6 Over 1.5 3
3 Over 2.5 3
2 Over 3.5 2
0 Clean Sheets 1
4 Failed To Score 1
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From the opening view, this looks like a meeting between teams arriving with different levels of stability, reinforced by KäPa's more proactive style and MP's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors KäPa. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward KäPa having the stronger overall control. KäPa carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 2 with 4 points while MP sit 9 on 0, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected.

MP Analysis

From their first 2 matches, MP have collected 0 points and now occupy 9 place in the table. Their overall return of 0 wins, 0 draws, and 2 losses with goals at 0:2 reflects poor form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by their main attacking players, while defensively they have appeared very solid. At home, the record of 0 wins, 0 draws, and 0 losses points toward an unclear split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

KäPa Analysis

KäPa come into this match from a strong league position, sitting 2 with 4 points from 2 matches. The record of 1 wins, 1 draws, and 0 defeats, together with a 4:3 goal balance, points toward poor form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through Y. Lika (3 goals), N. Nurmi (1 goals), with creative support from N. Nurmi (1 assists), R. Huhtamaki (1 assists), while at the back they have looked very solid. Away from home, they have returned 1 wins, 0 draws, and 0 losses, a split that suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 9 head-to-head meetings, MP won 2 times, KäPa won 6 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 15:23 from MP's perspective. 6 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 6 matches, with an average of 4.22 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (92.2%)
H2H summary: MP wins 2, draws 1, KäPa wins 6

Lineups

MP
Formation
KäPa
J. Uronen
J. Uronen
V. Laiho
V. Laiho
A. Chishima
A. Chishima
E. Ylonen
E. Ylonen
S. Stenius
S. Stenius
V. Janhunen
V. Janhunen
S. Atakayi
S. Atakayi
A. Traore
A. Traore
A. Tervaniemi
A. Tervaniemi
S. Saidy
S. Saidy
N. Forsell
N. Forsell
L. Nokelainen
L. Nokelainen
U. Huhtamaki
U. Huhtamaki
P. Hietalahti
P. Hietalahti
P. Lindberg
P. Lindberg
N. Leinonen
🎯
N. Leinonen
A. Almen
A. Almen
Y. Lika
Y. Lika
S. Sillah
S. Sillah
S. Savini
S. Savini
T. Koivuranta
T. Koivuranta
D. Cukici
D. Cukici
MP 4-4-2 (estimated)
Starting XI
22
J. Uronen
4
V. Laiho
7
A. Chishima
10
E. Ylonen
15
S. Stenius
↓ 65'
19
V. Janhunen
26
S. Atakayi
🟨 54'
27
A. Traore
28
A. Tervaniemi
29
S. Saidy
↓ 56'
44
N. Forsell
↓ 78'
Substitutes
30
T. Heikkinen
9
M. Ahmad Al Sheikh
↑ 65'
11
O. Hayhanen
↑ 78'
12
O. Kimari
14
M. Snellman
18
N. Krivetz
43
S. Sarkka
45
V. Karttunen
↑ 56'
87
M. Kastrati
KäPa 4-4-2 (estimated)
Starting XI
30
L. Nokelainen
2
U. Huhtamaki
4
P. Hietalahti
🟨 45'
5
P. Lindberg
↓ 68'
7
N. Leinonen
🎯 25'
9
A. Almen
↓ 68'
10
Y. Lika
↓ 90'
11
S. Sillah
19
S. Savini
↓ 68'
33
T. Koivuranta
🟨 88'
36
D. Cukici
⚽ 25'
Substitutes
24
R. Piekkanen
3
S. Puputti
↑ 68'
6
N. Nurmi
↑ 68'
15
A. Pastinen
20
O. Heinonen
21
D. Rokman
↑ 68'
22
D. Ripatti
↑ 90'
Last matches: MP
07.08.26
Ykk
MP
JäPS
0
1
L
29.07.26
Ykk
MP
KäPa
2
1
W
25.07.26
Ykk
MP
Kooteepee
3
3
D
15.07.26
Ykk
MP
JIPPO
1
3
L
11.07.26
Ykk
MP
SJK Akatemia
1
1
D
05.07.26
Ykk
MP
Haka
2
1
W
26.06.26
Ykk
MP
PK-35
1
2
L
14.06.26
Ykk
MP
Klubi-04
2
2
D
06.06.26
Ykk
MP
EIF
0
1
L
31.05.26
Ykk
MP
EIF
1
0
W
22.05.26
Ykk
MP
JäPS
2
0
W
17.05.26
Ykk
MP
JIPPO
1
3
L
07.05.26
Ykk
MP
PK-35
1
3
L
02.05.26
Ykk
MP
Haka
1
0
W
24.04.26
Ykk
MP
Klubi-04
1
0
W
10.04.26
Ykk
MP
Kooteepee
0
1
L
06.04.26
Ykk
MP
SJK Akatemia
0
1
L
28.03.26
Fri
MP
JJK
1
1
D
27.03.26
Fri
MP
Ilves
0
2
L
13.03.26
Fri
MP
PK-35
0
2
L
Last matches: KäPa
08.08.26
Ykk
KäPa
EIF
0
1
L
29.07.26
Ykk
KäPa
MP
1
2
L
25.07.26
Ykk
KäPa
Haka
1
3
L
21.07.26
Ykk
KäPa
Klubi-04
0
2
L
17.07.26
Ykk
KäPa
SJK Akatemia
2
2
D
10.07.26
Ykk
KäPa
PK-35
1
3
L
28.06.26
Ykk
KäPa
JäPS
3
1
W
13.06.26
Ykk
KäPa
JIPPO
0
3
L
05.06.26
Ykk
KäPa
Kooteepee
1
2
L
29.05.26
Ykk
KäPa
JäPS
2
1
W
23.05.26
Ykk
KäPa
EIF
0
1
L
17.05.26
Ykk
KäPa
PK-35
0
0
D
09.05.26
Ykk
KäPa
Kooteepee
1
2
L
02.05.26
Ykk
KäPa
JIPPO
0
2
L
25.04.26
Ykk
KäPa
Haka
2
2
D
10.04.26
Ykk
KäPa
SJK Akatemia
2
2
D
06.04.26
Ykk
KäPa
Klubi-04
2
1
W
31.01.26
Fri
KäPa
VJS
0
1
L
24.01.26
Fri
KäPa
Honka
3
2
W
17.01.26
Fri
KäPa
JäPS
1
0
W
H2H: MP vs KäPa
29.07.26
H2H
MP
KäPa
2
1
W
19.04.26
H2H
MP
KäPa
0
1
L
14.09.24
H2H
KäPa
MP
3
2
L
11.07.24
H2H
MP
KäPa
2
6
L
12.05.24
H2H
KäPa
MP
4
0
L
28.06.23
H2H
MP
KäPa
6
2
W
16.04.23
H2H
KäPa
MP
2
0
L
26.08.16
H2H
KäPa
MP
3
2
L
12.06.16
H2H
MP
KäPa
1
1
D
Last matches: MP
29.07.26
Ykk
MP
KäPa
2
1
W
25.07.26
Ykk
MP
Kooteepee
3
3
D
05.07.26
Ykk
MP
Haka
2
1
W
14.06.26
Ykk
MP
Klubi-04
2
2
D
31.05.26
Ykk
MP
EIF
1
0
W
17.05.26
Ykk
MP
JIPPO
1
3
L
02.05.26
Ykk
MP
Haka
1
0
W
28.03.26
Fri
MP
JJK
1
1
D
07.02.26
Fri
MP
MyPa
2
1
W
17.01.26
Fri
MP
PEPO
4
2
W
10.01.26
Fri
MP
Atlantis
4
1
W
H2H at home: MP
29.07.26
H2H
MP
KäPa
2
1
W
19.04.26
H2H
MP
KäPa
0
1
L
11.07.24
H2H
MP
KäPa
2
6
L
28.06.23
H2H
MP
KäPa
6
2
W
12.06.16
H2H
MP
KäPa
1
1
D
Last matches: KäPa
29.07.26
Ykk
KäPa
MP
1
2
L
25.07.26
Ykk
KäPa
Haka
1
3
L
10.07.26
Ykk
KäPa
PK-35
1
3
L
13.06.26
Ykk
KäPa
JIPPO
0
3
L
23.05.26
Ykk
KäPa
EIF
0
1
L
09.05.26
Ykk
KäPa
Kooteepee
1
2
L
25.04.26
Ykk
KäPa
Haka
2
2
D
06.04.26
Ykk
KäPa
Klubi-04
2
1
W
24.01.26
Fri
KäPa
Honka
3
2
W
17.01.26
Fri
KäPa
JäPS
1
0
W
H2H away: KäPa
29.07.26
H2H
MP
KäPa
2
1
L
19.04.26
H2H
MP
KäPa
0
1
W
11.07.24
H2H
MP
KäPa
2
6
W
28.06.23
H2H
MP
KäPa
6
2
L
12.06.16
H2H
MP
KäPa
1
1
D

Standings

Ykkösliiga
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 18 12 3 3 31:19 12 39
W W D L W
2 18 11 4 3 30:13 17 37
W L D W W
3 18 10 4 4 36:19 17 34
W W W D W
4 18 8 7 3 24:15 9 31
L W D W W
5 18 9 1 8 17:24 -7 28
W L W W L
6 18 7 2 9 24:30 -6 23
W W D L L
7
MP Home
18 6 3 9 19:24 -5 21
L W D L D
8
KäPa Away
18 4 4 10 19:30 -11 16
L L L L D
9 18 2 6 10 14:23 -9 12
L L L W D
10 18 1 6 11 8:25 -17 9
L L D D D
Promotion - Veikkausliiga
Promotion - Veikkausliiga (Promotion)
Ykkosliiga (Relegation)
Relegation - Ykkonen