ITALY SERIE B
24.04.2026 17:00
Brianteo
Referee: F. Dionisi
Monza
Match Timeline
Modena
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
27'
S. Birindelli
Monza
🟨
45+2'
Daniel Tonoli
Modena
🔄
46'
D. Tonoli ↔ B. Nieling
Modena
🔄
56'
A. Petagna ↔ G. Caso
Monza
🔄
56'
A. Colpani ↔ Hernani
Monza
🔄
57'
S. Wiafe ↔ N. Pyyhtia
Modena
🔄
66'
G. Ambrosino ↔ P. Mendes
Modena
🔄
66'
G. Beyuku ↔ F. Zampano
Modena
🔄
70'
P. Cutrone ↔ D. Mota
Monza
🔄
78'
L. Zanimacchia ↔ M. Cotali
Modena
🟨
85'
Bryant Nieling
Modena
🟨
90'
Adam Bakoune
Monza

Monza vs Modena Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 78.9%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 80%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 74.1%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
78.9%
-
BTTS BTTS Yes
80%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
74.1%
-
Probability Distribution
Monza Win 78.9%
Draw 0%
Modena Win 21.1%
Expected Goals (xG)
Monza1.31
Modena1.1
Recent Form (Last 5)
Monza Monza
WWDLW
56 GF / 28 GA
Modena Modena
WLDWL
47 GF / 34 GA
Key Stats
1.56
Average Goals Scored
1.31
0.78
Average Goals Conceded
0.94
17
BTTS Yes
18
16
Over 2.5
18
4.58
Shots on Goal
4.81

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Monza Monza 36 matches
Modena Modena 36 matches
Monza Statistic Modena
21 Wins 14
9 Draws 10
6 Losses 12
56 Goals For 47
28 Goals Against 34
1.56 Avg Goals Scored 1.31
0.78 Avg Goals Conceded 0.94
17 BTTS Yes 18
25 Over 1.5 28
16 Over 2.5 18
6 Over 3.5 4
15 Clean Sheets 14
6 Failed To Score 9
4.58 Shots On Goal 4.81
14.14 Total Shots 15.56
5.53 Corners 5.61
53.5% Ball Possession 50.4%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Monza expected to line up in 3-4-2-1 and Modena in 3-5-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Modena having the stronger overall control. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.This game has the potential to be open, with both sides capable of creating several scoring chances. Monza arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 3 with 72 points compared to Modena in 6 on 52, which underlines the gap in season consistency. Given the broader gap between the sides, Away Win looks like the most logical direction, while the clean-sheet expectation leans toward Modena. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest.

Monza Analysis

Monza come into this match from a strong league position, sitting 3 with 72 points from 35 matches. Their overall return of 21 wins, 9 draws, and 5 losses with goals at 53:27 reflects mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by A. Petagna (8 goals), Hernani (5 goals), Matteo Pessina (5 goals), with creative support from P. Azzi (6 assists), A. Izzo (4 assists), Patrick Ciurria (3 assists), while defensively they have appeared fairly stable. At home, the record of 13 wins, 3 draws, and 1 losses points toward a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.

Modena Analysis

Modena are currently 6 in the standings with 52 points from 35 matches. The record of 14 wins, 10 draws, and 11 defeats, together with a 44:29 goal balance, points toward poor form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through E. Gliozzi (11 goals), D. Tonoli (5 goals), P. Mendes (4 goals), with creative support from S. Santoro (4 assists), L. Magnino (4 assists), M. De Luca (3 assists), while at the back they have looked fairly stable. Away from home, they have returned 6 wins, 5 draws, and 5 losses, a split that suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 2 head-to-head meetings, Monza won 2 times, Modena won 0 times, while 0 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 3:1 from Monza's perspective. 1 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 1 matches, with an average of 2 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (100%)
Predicted formations: Monza 3-4-2-1 / Modena 3-5-2
H2H summary: Monza wins 2, draws 0, Modena wins 0

Standings

Serie B: Regular season
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 38 24 10 4 77:31 46 82
W D W W D
2 38 23 12 3 76:34 42 81
W W W W D
3
Monza Home
38 22 10 6 61:32 29 76
D L W W W
4 38 20 12 6 61:33 28 72
L W D W D
5 38 15 14 9 62:51 11 59
L L W D D
6 38 15 10 13 49:36 13 55
L W L L D
7 38 11 18 9 44:45 -1 51
D L D D W
8 38 13 10 15 43:55 -12 49
W L W W D
9 38 13 7 18 45:57 -12 46
L W W L W
10 38 12 10 16 39:49 -10 46
W W L W W
11 38 12 10 16 45:56 -11 46
L D D L L
12 38 10 14 14 47:52 -5 44
L D L D L
13 38 11 11 16 35:48 -13 44
L W D L W
14 38 10 12 16 36:51 -15 42
W L W D D
15 38 9 14 15 47:54 -7 41
D W L D L
16 38 8 17 13 38:48 -10 41
D L L L D
17 38 10 10 18 38:60 -22 40
W W L L L
18 38 9 10 19 36:56 -20 37
W L D L W
19 38 8 11 19 43:59 -16 35
D D L W L
20 38 7 14 17 51:66 -15 35
D L D D L
Promotion - Serie A
Promotion - Serie B (Play Offs: Semi-finals)
Promotion - Serie B (Play Offs: Quarter-finals)
Serie B (Play Out)
Relegation