ITALY SERIE B
--.--.---- --:--
Brianteo
Referee: F. Dionisi
Monza
Match Timeline
Modena
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
27'
S. Birindelli
Monza
🟨
45+2'
Daniel Tonoli
Modena
🔄
46'
D. Tonoli ↔ B. Nieling
Modena
🔄
56'
A. Petagna ↔ G. Caso
Monza
🔄
56'
A. Colpani ↔ Hernani
Monza
🔄
57'
S. Wiafe ↔ N. Pyyhtia
Modena
🔄
66'
G. Ambrosino ↔ P. Mendes
Modena
🔄
66'
G. Beyuku ↔ F. Zampano
Modena
🔄
70'
P. Cutrone ↔ D. Mota
Monza
🔄
78'
L. Zanimacchia ↔ M. Cotali
Modena
🟨
85'
Bryant Nieling
Modena
🟨
90'
Adam Bakoune
Monza

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 78.9%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 80%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 74.1%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
78.9%
-
BTTS BTTS Yes
80%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
74.1%
-
Probability Distribution
Monza Win 78.9%
Draw 0%
Modena Win 21.1%
Expected Goals (xG)
Monza1.31
Modena1.1
Recent Form (Last 5)
Monza Monza
WWDLW
56 GF / 28 GA
Modena Modena
WLDWL
47 GF / 34 GA
Key Stats
1.56
Average Goals Scored
1.31
0.78
Average Goals Conceded
0.94
17
BTTS Yes
18
16
Over 2.5
18
4.58
Shots on Goal
4.81

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Monza Monza 36 matches
Modena Modena 36 matches
Monza Statistic Modena
21 Wins 14
9 Draws 10
6 Losses 12
56 Goals For 47
28 Goals Against 34
1.56 Avg Goals Scored 1.31
0.78 Avg Goals Conceded 0.94
17 BTTS Yes 18
25 Over 1.5 28
16 Over 2.5 18
6 Over 3.5 4
15 Clean Sheets 14
6 Failed To Score 9
4.58 Shots On Goal 4.81
14.14 Total Shots 15.56
5.53 Corners 5.61
53.5% Ball Possession 50.4%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Monza expected to line up in 3-4-2-1 and Modena in 3-5-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Modena having the stronger overall control. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.This game has the potential to be open, with both sides capable of creating several scoring chances. Monza arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 3 with 72 points compared to Modena in 6 on 52, which underlines the gap in season consistency. Given the broader gap between the sides, Away Win looks like the most logical direction, while the clean-sheet expectation leans toward Modena. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest.

Monza Analysis

Monza come into this match from a strong league position, sitting 3 with 72 points from 35 matches. Their overall return of 21 wins, 9 draws, and 5 losses with goals at 53:27 reflects mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by A. Petagna (8 goals), Hernani (5 goals), Matteo Pessina (5 goals), with creative support from P. Azzi (6 assists), A. Izzo (4 assists), Patrick Ciurria (3 assists), while defensively they have appeared fairly stable. At home, the record of 13 wins, 3 draws, and 1 losses points toward a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.

Modena Analysis

Modena are currently 6 in the standings with 52 points from 35 matches. The record of 14 wins, 10 draws, and 11 defeats, together with a 44:29 goal balance, points toward poor form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through E. Gliozzi (11 goals), D. Tonoli (5 goals), P. Mendes (4 goals), with creative support from S. Santoro (4 assists), L. Magnino (4 assists), M. De Luca (3 assists), while at the back they have looked fairly stable. Away from home, they have returned 6 wins, 5 draws, and 5 losses, a split that suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 2 head-to-head meetings, Monza won 2 times, Modena won 0 times, while 0 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 3:1 from Monza's perspective. 1 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 1 matches, with an average of 2 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (100%)
Predicted formations: Monza 3-4-2-1 / Modena 3-5-2
H2H summary: Monza wins 2, draws 0, Modena wins 0
Stats
Monza Monza
Modena Modena
Shots on Goal
4
Shots on Goal
5
Shots off Goal
3
Shots off Goal
6
Blocked Shots
3
Blocked Shots
4
5 Corner Kicks 4
8 Fouls 20
0 Offsides 1
41% Ball Possession 59%
10 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Goal 5
3 Shots off Goal 6
3 Blocked Shots 4
7 Shots insidebox 7
3 Shots outsidebox 8
5 Goalkeeper Saves 3
342 Total passes 491
269 Passes accurate 423
0.43 expected_goals 0.94
🟨 1 Yellow Cards 2 🟨
🟥 0 Red Cards 0 🟥

Lineups

Monza
Formation
Modena
D. Thiam
D. Thiam
L. Ravanelli
L. Ravanelli
F. Delli Carri
F. Delli Carri
A. Carboni
A. Carboni
A. Bakoune
A. Bakoune
P. Obiang
P. Obiang
M. Pessina
M. Pessina
S. Birindelli
S. Birindelli
A. Colpani
A. Colpani
P. Cutrone
P. Cutrone
A. Petagna
A. Petagna
M. Pezzolato
M. Pezzolato
D. Tonoli
D. Tonoli
S. Nador
S. Nador
A. Dellavalle
A. Dellavalle
G. Beyuku
G. Beyuku
Y. Massolin
Y. Massolin
F. Gerli
F. Gerli
S. Wiafe
S. Wiafe
L. Zanimacchia
L. Zanimacchia
M. De Luca
M. De Luca
G. Ambrosino
G. Ambrosino
Monza 3-4-2-1
Starting XI
20
D. Thiam
G
13
L. Ravanelli
D
15
F. Delli Carri
D
44
A. Carboni
D
24
A. Bakoune
🟨 90'
M
14
P. Obiang
M
32
M. Pessina
M
19
S. Birindelli
⚽ 27'
M
28
A. Colpani
↓ 56'
F
10
P. Cutrone
↓ 70'
F
37
A. Petagna
↓ 56'
F
Substitutes
1
S. Pizzignacco
G
26
P. Ciurria
F
30
G. Caso
↑ 56'
M
11
O. Forson
F
25
A. Alvarez
F
8
Hernani
↑ 56'
M
17
K. Balde
F
47
D. Mota
↑ 70'
F
6
V. Antov
D
2
A. Brorsson
D
27
S. Capolupo
52
M. Mout
F
Modena 3-5-2
Starting XI
22
M. Pezzolato
G
77
D. Tonoli
↓ 46' 🟨 45+2'
D
19
S. Nador
D
25
A. Dellavalle
D
2
G. Beyuku
↓ 66'
M
17
Y. Massolin
M
16
F. Gerli
M
71
S. Wiafe
↓ 57'
M
98
L. Zanimacchia
↓ 78'
M
99
M. De Luca
F
10
G. Ambrosino
↓ 66'
F
Substitutes
78
F. Bagheria
G
13
A. Laidani
G
28
D. Adorni
D
11
P. Mendes
↑ 66'
F
18
N. Pyyhtia
↑ 57'
M
20
B. Nieling
↑ 46'
7
F. Zampano
↑ 66'
D
29
M. Cotali
↑ 78'
D
33
C. Cauz
D
90
A. Imputato
24
E. Colpo
F
80
P. Arnaboldi
M
Last matches: Monza
24.07.26
Fri
Monza
Galatasaray
2
0
W
18.07.26
Fri
Monza
PRO Vercelli
4
3
W
29.05.26
Ser
Monza
Catanzaro
0
2
L
24.05.26
Ser
Monza
Catanzaro
2
0
W
19.05.26
Ser
Monza
Juve Stabia
2
1
W
16.05.26
Ser
Monza
Juve Stabia
2
2
D
08.05.26
Ser
Monza
Empoli
2
2
D
01.05.26
Ser
Monza
Mantova
2
3
L
17.04.26
Ser
Monza
Sampdoria
3
0
W
11.04.26
Ser
Monza
Bari
2
0
W
06.04.26
Ser
Monza
Catanzaro
1
1
D
21.03.26
Ser
Monza
Venezia
1
1
D
17.03.26
Ser
Monza
Reggiana
0
0
D
14.03.26
Ser
Monza
Palermo
3
0
W
07.03.26
Ser
Monza
Spezia
2
4
L
03.03.26
Ser
Monza
Cesena
3
1
W
27.02.26
Ser
Monza
Virtus Entella
2
0
W
21.02.26
Ser
Monza
Carrarese
1
0
W
15.02.26
Ser
Monza
Juve Stabia
2
1
W
11.02.26
Ser
Monza
Sudtirol
0
0
D
Last matches: Modena
12.05.26
Ser
Modena
Juve Stabia
0
1
L
08.05.26
Ser
Modena
Avellino
0
1
L
01.05.26
Ser
Modena
Reggiana
2
1
W
18.04.26
Ser
Modena
Frosinone
1
2
L
14.04.26
Ser
Modena
Catanzaro
2
2
D
11.04.26
Ser
Modena
Sudtirol
1
1
D
06.04.26
Ser
Modena
Bari
1
3
L
21.03.26
Ser
Modena
Mantova
2
1
W
13.03.26
Ser
Modena
Spezia
3
0
W
07.03.26
Ser
Modena
Cesena
0
0
D
03.03.26
Ser
Modena
Virtus Entella
1
2
L
28.02.26
Ser
Modena
Padova
1
2
L
22.02.26
Ser
Modena
Juve Stabia
2
1
W
14.02.26
Ser
Modena
Carrarese
2
0
W
10.02.26
Ser
Modena
Venezia
2
0
W
07.02.26
Ser
Modena
Sampdoria
1
2
L
31.01.26
Ser
Modena
Empoli
0
0
D
24.01.26
Ser
Modena
Palermo
0
0
D
18.01.26
Ser
Modena
Pescara
2
0
W
11.01.26
Ser
Modena
Padova
0
2
L
H2H: Monza vs Modena
24.04.26
H2H
Monza
Modena
1
0
W
26.12.25
H2H
Modena
Monza
1
2
W
Last matches: Monza
18.07.26
Fri
Monza
PRO Vercelli
4
3
W
29.05.26
Ser
Monza
Catanzaro
0
2
L
19.05.26
Ser
Monza
Juve Stabia
2
1
W
08.05.26
Ser
Monza
Empoli
2
2
D
11.04.26
Ser
Monza
Bari
2
0
W
21.03.26
Ser
Monza
Venezia
1
1
D
14.03.26
Ser
Monza
Palermo
3
0
W
27.02.26
Ser
Monza
Virtus Entella
2
0
W
15.02.26
Ser
Monza
Juve Stabia
2
1
W
08.02.26
Ser
Monza
Avellino
2
1
W
24.01.26
Ser
Monza
Pescara
3
0
W
17.01.26
Ser
Monza
Frosinone
2
2
D
20.12.25
Ser
Monza
Carrarese
4
1
W
08.12.25
Ser
Monza
Sudtirol
1
1
D
23.11.25
Ser
Monza
Cesena
1
0
W
02.11.25
Ser
Monza
Spezia
1
0
W
25.10.25
Ser
Monza
Reggiana
3
1
W
04.10.25
Ser
Monza
Catanzaro
2
1
W
27.09.25
Ser
Monza
Padova
0
1
L
20.09.25
Ser
Monza
Sampdoria
1
0
W
H2H at home: Monza
24.04.26
H2H
Monza
Modena
1
0
W
Last matches: Modena
08.05.26
Ser
Modena
Avellino
0
1
L
14.04.26
Ser
Modena
Catanzaro
2
2
D
11.04.26
Ser
Modena
Sudtirol
1
1
D
06.04.26
Ser
Modena
Bari
1
3
L
03.03.26
Ser
Modena
Virtus Entella
1
2
L
22.02.26
Ser
Modena
Juve Stabia
2
1
W
10.02.26
Ser
Modena
Venezia
2
0
W
31.01.26
Ser
Modena
Empoli
0
0
D
18.01.26
Ser
Modena
Pescara
2
0
W
11.01.26
Ser
Modena
Padova
0
2
L
13.12.25
Ser
Modena
Spezia
2
0
W
28.11.25
Ser
Modena
Cesena
0
1
L
08.11.25
Ser
Modena
Frosinone
2
2
D
28.10.25
Ser
Modena
Reggiana
0
1
L
19.10.25
Ser
Modena
Palermo
1
1
D
01.10.25
Ser
Modena
Carrarese
0
0
D
20.09.25
Ser
Modena
Mantova
3
1
W
25.08.25
Ser
Modena
Sampdoria
2
0
W
18.08.25
Cop
Modena
Torino
0
1
L
H2H away: Modena
24.04.26
H2H
Monza
Modena
1
0
L

Standings

Serie B: Regular season
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 38 24 10 4 77:31 46 82
W D W W D
2 38 23 12 3 76:34 42 81
W W W W D
3
Monza Home
38 22 10 6 61:32 29 76
D L W W W
4 38 20 12 6 61:33 28 72
L W D W D
5 38 15 14 9 62:51 11 59
L L W D D
6 38 15 10 13 49:36 13 55
L W L L D
7 38 11 18 9 44:45 -1 51
D L D D W
8 38 13 10 15 43:55 -12 49
W L W W D
9 38 13 7 18 45:57 -12 46
L W W L W
10 38 12 10 16 39:49 -10 46
W W L W W
11 38 12 10 16 45:56 -11 46
L D D L L
12 38 10 14 14 47:52 -5 44
L D L D L
13 38 11 11 16 35:48 -13 44
L W D L W
14 38 10 12 16 36:51 -15 42
W L W D D
15 38 9 14 15 47:54 -7 41
D W L D L
16 38 8 17 13 38:48 -10 41
D L L L D
17 38 10 10 18 38:60 -22 40
W W L L L
18 38 9 10 19 36:56 -20 37
W L D L W
19 38 8 11 19 43:59 -16 35
D D L W L
20 38 7 14 17 51:66 -15 35
D L D D L
Promotion - Serie A
Promotion - Serie B (Play Offs: Semi-finals)
Promotion - Serie B (Play Offs: Quarter-finals)
Serie B (Play Out)
Relegation