MEXICO LIGA MX
13.09.2026 01:10
Estadio BBVA
Referee: Ismael Rosario Lopez Penuelas, Mexico
Monterrey
Match Timeline
Tigres UANL
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟥
-5'
Diego Lainez
Tigres UANL
🟨
7'
Joaquim
Tigres UANL
🟨
36'
Mauro Laínez
Tigres UANL
🔄
46'
C. Salcedo ↔ S. Medina
Monterrey
🟨
59'
Diego Rossi
Monterrey
🟨
61'
Stefan Medina
Monterrey
🔄
67'
J. Corona ↔ L. Orellano
Monterrey
🔄
70'
Romulo ↔ C. Araujo
Tigres UANL
🔄
70'
D. Lainez ↔ D. A. Sanchez Guevara
Tigres UANL
🔄
76'
R. Chavez ↔ E. Aguirre
Monterrey
🔄
76'
L. Ocampos ↔ U. Djurdjevic
Monterrey
🔄
81'
R. Monreal ↔ R. Guerrero
Tigres UANL
🔄
81'
A. Franco ↔ E. Gomez
Tigres UANL
🔄
85'
J. Brunetta ↔ O. Herrera
Tigres UANL
🟨
87'
Uroš Đurđević
Monterrey
🟨
87'
Rafael Guerrero
Tigres UANL
🟥
90+7'
Gerardo Arteaga
Monterrey
🔄
90+2'
O. Torres ↔ F. Ambriz
Monterrey

Monterrey vs Tigres UANL Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 77.9%
Odds 2.18
BTTS
Yes
Probability 78.8%
Odds 1.62
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 66.7%
Odds 1.85
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
77.9%
2.18
BTTS Yes
78.8%
1.62
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
66.7%
1.85
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
1.19
HT / FT Home / Home
-
3.50
Correct Score 2-1
-
9.00
Probability Distribution
Monterrey Win 77.9%
Draw 5.9%
Tigres UANL Win 16.2%
Expected Goals (xG)
Monterrey1.74
Tigres UANL1.4
Recent Form (Last 5)
Monterrey Monterrey
WWDLW
29 GF / 18 GA
Tigres UANL Tigres UANL
WLDWL
25 GF / 21 GA
Key Stats
2.07
Average Goals Scored
1.47
1.29
Average Goals Conceded
1.24
10
BTTS Yes
10
8
Over 2.5
8
6.3
Shots on Goal
5

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Monterrey Monterrey 14 matches
Tigres UANL Tigres UANL 17 matches
Monterrey Statistic Tigres UANL
7 Wins 6
3 Draws 6
4 Losses 5
29 Goals For 25
18 Goals Against 21
2.07 Avg Goals Scored 1.47
1.29 Avg Goals Conceded 1.24
10 BTTS Yes 10
14 Over 1.5 13
8 Over 2.5 8
5 Over 3.5 6
3 Clean Sheets 6
1 Failed To Score 3
6.3 Shots On Goal 5
17.2 Total Shots 16.63
5.7 Corners 6.63
57.1% Ball Possession 54.4%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From the opening view, this looks like a meeting between teams arriving with different levels of stability, reinforced by Monterrey's more proactive style and Tigres UANL's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Monterrey have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. Monterrey arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 9 with 9 points compared to Tigres UANL in 16 on 5, which underlines the gap in season consistency. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Given the broader gap between the sides, Away Win looks like the most logical direction, while the clean-sheet expectation leans toward Tigres UANL. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself.

Monterrey Analysis

Monterrey approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 9 with 9 points from 6 matches. Across the season they have posted 3 wins, 0 draws, and 3 defeats, and the 13:10 goal record continues to suggest mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on Lucas Ocampos (4 goals), D. Rossi (1 goals), J. Corona (1 goals), with creative support from Lucas Ocampos (1 assists), D. Rossi (1 assists), Óliver Torres (1 assists), while at the back they have been very solid. At home, the split record of 2 wins, 0 draws, and 1 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader football approach still suggests balanced attacking football.

Tigres UANL Analysis

Tigres UANL approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 16 with 5 points from 6 matches. Their record of 1 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses, together with goals at 8:10, reflects poor form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through Fernando Gorriarán (1 goals), R. Aguirre (1 goals), D. Sánchez (1 goals), with creative support from J. Brunetta (2 assists), Joaquim (2 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been very solid. Away from home, they have returned 0 wins, 1 draws, and 3 losses, which indicates a fairly balanced split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Monterrey won 5 times, Tigres UANL won 5 times, while 5 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 17:18 from Monterrey's perspective. 5 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 7 matches, with an average of 2.33 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (94.1%)
Predicted formations: Monterrey 4-2-3-1 / Tigres UANL 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Monterrey wins 5, draws 5, Tigres UANL wins 5

Standings

Liga MX: Apertura
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 8 6 1 1 18:6 12 19
W W W W D
2 8 5 2 1 15:6 9 17
W W D W W
3 7 5 1 1 15:6 9 16
L W W W W
4 8 5 0 3 16:14 2 15
W W W L L
5 9 4 2 3 11:11 0 14
D L W L W
6 7 4 1 2 10:7 3 13
W W L D W
7 8 4 1 3 11:9 2 13
W L D W W
8 7 4 1 2 10:8 2 13
L W L W D
9 8 4 1 3 12:14 -2 13
L D L W W
10 8 3 2 3 13:8 5 11
W W D D L
11 8 3 2 3 11:12 -1 11
L W L D D
12 7 3 1 3 13:10 3 10
D L L W W
13 8 2 2 4 9:13 -4 8
L D L D L
14 9 1 5 3 8:13 -5 8
D L D D L
15 9 1 4 4 9:13 -4 7
L D D D W
16 8 1 3 4 8:15 -7 6
L L W D L
17 8 1 1 6 6:13 -7 4
W L D L L
18 9 1 0 8 6:23 -17 3
W L L L L
Promotion - Liga MX (Apertura - Play Offs: Quarter-finals)