MEXICO LIGA MX
--.--.---- --:--
Estadio BBVA
Referee: L. E. Santander Aguirre
Monterrey
Match Timeline
Puebla
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
2'
E. Gomez · Assist: B. Garnica
Puebla
🟨
15'
Fidel Ambríz
Monterrey
🔄
31'
A. Canelo ↔ E. Lozano
Puebla
42'
L. Ocampos
Monterrey
44'
O. Torres · Assist: R. Chavez
Monterrey
🟨
45+3'
Alejandro Organista
Puebla
🔄
67'
L. Reyes ↔ G. Arteaga
Monterrey
🔄
67'
O. Torres ↔ I. Fimbres
Monterrey
🔄
73'
J. Corona ↔ S. Rodriguez
Monterrey
🔄
74'
A. Ramirez ↔ C. Baltazar
Puebla
🔄
74'
E. Navarro ↔ U. Torres
Puebla
🟨
80'
Carlos Salcedo
Monterrey
🔄
84'
L. Orellano ↔ C. Reyes
Monterrey
🔄
84'
C. Salcedo ↔ A. Aceves
Monterrey
🟨
89'
Cristian Reyes
Monterrey
🔄
90+1'
B. Garnica ↔ E. Mustre
Puebla

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 52.2%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 79.1%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 68.4%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
52.2%
-
BTTS BTTS Yes
79.1%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
68.4%
-
Probability Distribution
Monterrey Win 52.2%
Draw 30.5%
Puebla Win 17.3%
Expected Goals (xG)
Monterrey1.78
Puebla1.2
Recent Form (Last 5)
Monterrey Monterrey
WWDLW
59 GF / 54 GA
Puebla Puebla
WLDWL
32 GF / 64 GA
Key Stats
1.64
Average Goals Scored
1
1.5
Average Goals Conceded
2
19
BTTS Yes
16
20
Over 2.5
19
5.33
Shots on Goal
4.19

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Monterrey Monterrey 36 matches
Puebla Puebla 32 matches
Monterrey Statistic Puebla
15 Wins 6
7 Draws 7
14 Losses 19
59 Goals For 32
54 Goals Against 64
1.64 Avg Goals Scored 1
1.5 Avg Goals Conceded 2
19 BTTS Yes 16
27 Over 1.5 22
20 Over 2.5 19
16 Over 3.5 12
10 Clean Sheets 6
8 Failed To Score 14
5.33 Shots On Goal 4.19
13.92 Total Shots 12.44
4.44 Corners 4.75
56.2% Ball Possession 48%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

There is very little separating these two teams on paper, and Monterrey's more proactive style and Puebla's more cautious structure points toward a competitive game. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Monterrey expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Puebla in 3-4-2-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Puebla having the stronger overall control. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Puebla.

Monterrey Analysis

Monterrey sit 14 with 15 points after 15 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. The overall return of 4 wins, 3 draws, and 8 defeats with a 19:17 goal balance points toward poor form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on G. Berterame (13 goals), S. Canales (13 goals), L. Ocampos (6 goals), with creative support from Óliver Torres (8 assists), S. Canales (6 assists), L. Ocampos (6 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. At home, they have returned 2 wins, 1 draws, and 4 losses, which indicates a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they tend to play with balanced attacking football.

Puebla Analysis

Puebla sit 16 with 13 points after 15 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Their record of 3 wins, 4 draws, and 8 losses, together with goals at 11:17, reflects poor form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through E. Gomez (7 goals), R. Marin (6 goals), C. Baltazar (4 goals), with creative support from E. Gomez (5 assists), R. Marin (5 assists), C. Baltazar (3 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been very solid. Away from home, they have managed 1 wins, 1 draws, and 4 losses, a return that supports a fairly balanced split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 14 head-to-head meetings, Monterrey won 8 times, Puebla won 1 times, while 5 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 24:14 from Monterrey's perspective. 7 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 10 matches, with an average of 2.71 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 1X (82.7%)
Predicted formations: Monterrey 4-2-3-1 / Puebla 3-4-2-1
H2H summary: Monterrey wins 8, draws 5, Puebla wins 1
Stats
Monterrey Monterrey
Puebla Puebla
Shots on Goal
6
Shots on Goal
2
Shots off Goal
11
Shots off Goal
5
Blocked Shots
6
Blocked Shots
3
3 Corner Kicks 4
20 Fouls 9
3 Offsides 2
43% Ball Possession 57%
23 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Goal 2
11 Shots off Goal 5
6 Blocked Shots 3
9 Shots insidebox 7
14 Shots outsidebox 3
1 Goalkeeper Saves 4
423 Total passes 543
366 Passes accurate 476
1.93 expected_goals 0.70
🟨 3 Yellow Cards 1 🟨
🟥 0 Red Cards 0 🟥

Lineups

Monterrey
Formation
Puebla
S. Mele
S. Mele
R. Chavez
🎯
R. Chavez
V. Guzman
V. Guzman
C. Salcedo
C. Salcedo
L. Reyes
L. Reyes
F. Ambriz
F. Ambriz
O. Torres
O. Torres
L. Orellano
L. Orellano
J. Corona
J. Corona
L. Ocampos
L. Ocampos
R. de la Rosa
R. de la Rosa
D. Gutierrez
D. Gutierrez
I. Moreno
I. Moreno
E. Navarro
E. Navarro
J. Vargas
J. Vargas
N. Diaz
N. Diaz
A. Ramirez
A. Ramirez
B. Garnica
🎯
B. Garnica
A. Gamarra
A. Gamarra
A. Organista
A. Organista
E. Gomez
E. Gomez
A. Canelo
A. Canelo
Monterrey 4-2-3-1
Starting XI
25
S. Mele
G
2
R. Chavez
🎯 44'
D
4
V. Guzman
D
13
C. Salcedo
↓ 84' 🟨 80'
D
21
L. Reyes
↓ 67'
D
5
F. Ambriz
🟨 15'
M
8
O. Torres
⚽ 44' ↓ 67'
M
11
L. Orellano
↓ 84'
M
17
J. Corona
↓ 73'
M
29
L. Ocampos
⚽ 42'
M
27
R. de la Rosa
F
Substitutes
22
L. Cardenas
G
10
S. Canales
M
20
U. Djurdjevic
F
3
G. Arteaga
↑ 67'
D
32
S. Rodriguez
↑ 73'
M
35
I. Fimbres
↑ 67'
M
194
C. Reyes
↑ 84' 🟨 89'
M
14
E. Aguirre
M
19
A. Aceves
↑ 84'
D
246
O. Galvez
M
Puebla 4-1-4-1
Starting XI
28
D. Gutierrez
G
12
I. Moreno
D
192
E. Navarro
↓ 74'
D
4
J. Vargas
D
6
N. Diaz
D
16
A. Ramirez
↓ 74'
M
27
B. Garnica
🎯 2' ↓ 90+1'
M
18
A. Gamarra
M
24
A. Organista
🟨 45+3'
M
11
E. Gomez
⚽ 2'
M
25
A. Canelo
↓ 31'
F
Substitutes
33
J. Rodriguez
G
32
A. Araos
M
22
C. Baltazar
↑ 74'
M
17
E. Lozano
↑ 31'
F
21
O. Gonzalez
M
20
J. R. Pachuca Martinez
D
5
U. Torres
↑ 74'
D
29
E. Mustre
↑ 90+1'
F
8
M. Ramirez
M
3
L. Rey
D
Last matches: Monterrey
19.07.26
Lig
Monterrey
Santos Laguna
3
2
W
04.07.26
Fri
Monterrey
Atlante FC
1
1
D
21.06.26
Fri
Monterrey
Cancún
4
1
W
26.04.26
Lig
Monterrey
Santos Laguna
0
3
L
19.04.26
Lig
Monterrey
CF Pachuca
1
3
L
12.04.26
Lig
Monterrey
Atlas
0
0
D
04.04.26
Lig
Monterrey
Atletico San Luis
1
2
L
22.03.26
Lig
Monterrey
Guadalajara Chivas
2
3
L
18.03.26
CON
Monterrey
Cruz Azul
1
1
D
14.03.26
Lig
Monterrey
FC Juarez
2
2
D
11.03.26
CON
Monterrey
Cruz Azul
2
3
L
08.03.26
Lig
Monterrey
Tigres UANL
0
1
L
05.03.26
Lig
Monterrey
Club Queretaro
4
0
W
01.03.26
Lig
Monterrey
Cruz Azul
0
2
L
22.02.26
Lig
Monterrey
U.N.A.M. - Pumas
0
2
L
15.02.26
Lig
Monterrey
Leon
1
0
W
12.02.26
CON
Monterrey
Xelajú
2
0
W
08.02.26
Lig
Monterrey
Club America
0
1
L
05.02.26
CON
Monterrey
Xelajú
1
1
D
01.02.26
Lig
Monterrey
Club Tijuana
2
2
D
Last matches: Puebla
22.07.26
Lig
Puebla
Cruz Azul
1
2
L
18.07.26
Lig
Puebla
FC Juarez
1
0
W
10.07.26
Fri
Puebla
Atlas
4
3
W
04.07.26
Fri
Puebla
CF Pachuca
1
3
L
01.07.26
Fri
Puebla
Tlaxcala
3
1
W
25.04.26
Lig
Puebla
Club Queretaro
1
2
L
19.04.26
Lig
Puebla
Guadalajara Chivas
0
5
L
11.04.26
Lig
Puebla
Leon
0
1
L
04.04.26
Lig
Puebla
FC Juarez
1
1
D
22.03.26
Lig
Puebla
Santos Laguna
1
2
L
14.03.26
Lig
Puebla
Necaxa
0
0
D
08.03.26
Lig
Puebla
CF Pachuca
1
2
L
05.03.26
Lig
Puebla
Tigres UANL
3
1
W
28.02.26
Lig
Puebla
Atletico San Luis
1
0
W
21.02.26
Lig
Puebla
Club America
0
4
L
14.02.26
Lig
Puebla
U.N.A.M. - Pumas
2
3
L
07.02.26
Lig
Puebla
Club Tijuana
0
0
D
31.01.26
Lig
Puebla
Toluca
0
0
D
18.01.26
Lig
Puebla
Cruz Azul
0
1
L
13.01.26
Lig
Puebla
Mazatlán
2
1
W
H2H: Monterrey vs Puebla
22.04.26
H2H
Monterrey
Puebla
2
1
W
30.08.25
H2H
Puebla
Monterrey
2
4
W
13.01.25
H2H
Monterrey
Puebla
1
1
D
17.08.24
H2H
Puebla
Monterrey
1
2
W
14.01.24
H2H
Monterrey
Puebla
2
0
W
04.10.23
H2H
Puebla
Monterrey
1
1
D
28.01.23
H2H
Puebla
Monterrey
1
2
W
27.07.22
H2H
Monterrey
Puebla
1
0
W
19.02.22
H2H
Puebla
Monterrey
1
0
L
26.07.21
H2H
Monterrey
Puebla
1
1
D
03.02.21
H2H
Puebla
Monterrey
0
0
D
23.11.20
H2H
Monterrey
Puebla
2
2
D
17.10.20
H2H
Monterrey
Puebla
3
1
W
02.05.20
H2H
Puebla
Monterrey
0
0
D
21.09.19
H2H
Monterrey
Puebla
3
2
W
Last matches: Monterrey
19.07.26
Lig
Monterrey
Santos Laguna
3
2
W
19.04.26
Lig
Monterrey
CF Pachuca
1
3
L
04.04.26
Lig
Monterrey
Atletico San Luis
1
2
L
22.03.26
Lig
Monterrey
Guadalajara Chivas
2
3
L
11.03.26
CON
Monterrey
Cruz Azul
2
3
L
05.03.26
Lig
Monterrey
Club Queretaro
4
0
W
01.03.26
Lig
Monterrey
Cruz Azul
0
2
L
15.02.26
Lig
Monterrey
Leon
1
0
W
12.02.26
CON
Monterrey
Xelajú
2
0
W
01.02.26
Lig
Monterrey
Club Tijuana
2
2
D
11.01.26
Lig
Monterrey
Toluca
0
1
L
04.12.25
Lig
Monterrey
Toluca
1
0
W
27.11.25
Lig
Monterrey
Club America
2
0
W
02.11.25
Lig
Monterrey
Tigres UANL
1
1
D
22.10.25
Lig
Monterrey
FC Juarez
4
2
W
19.10.25
Lig
Monterrey
U.N.A.M. - Pumas
1
1
D
28.09.25
Lig
Monterrey
Santos Laguna
1
0
W
21.09.25
Lig
Monterrey
Club America
2
2
D
24.08.25
Lig
Monterrey
Necaxa
3
0
W
18.08.25
Lig
Monterrey
Mazatlán
3
2
W
H2H at home: Monterrey
22.04.26
H2H
Monterrey
Puebla
2
1
W
13.01.25
H2H
Monterrey
Puebla
1
1
D
14.01.24
H2H
Monterrey
Puebla
2
0
W
27.07.22
H2H
Monterrey
Puebla
1
0
W
26.07.21
H2H
Monterrey
Puebla
1
1
D
23.11.20
H2H
Monterrey
Puebla
2
2
D
17.10.20
H2H
Monterrey
Puebla
3
1
W
21.09.19
H2H
Monterrey
Puebla
3
2
W
Last matches: Puebla
22.07.26
Lig
Puebla
Cruz Azul
1
2
L
18.07.26
Lig
Puebla
FC Juarez
1
0
W
10.07.26
Fri
Puebla
Atlas
4
3
W
04.07.26
Fri
Puebla
CF Pachuca
1
3
L
19.04.26
Lig
Puebla
Guadalajara Chivas
0
5
L
22.03.26
Lig
Puebla
Santos Laguna
1
2
L
08.03.26
Lig
Puebla
CF Pachuca
1
2
L
28.02.26
Lig
Puebla
Atletico San Luis
1
0
W
07.02.26
Lig
Puebla
Club Tijuana
0
0
D
18.01.26
Lig
Puebla
Cruz Azul
0
1
L
10.01.26
Lig
Puebla
Atlas
0
1
L
09.11.25
Lig
Puebla
Leon
2
1
W
25.10.25
Lig
Puebla
FC Juarez
4
4
D
22.10.25
Lig
Puebla
Club America
1
2
L
04.10.25
Lig
Puebla
Club Queretaro
1
3
L
20.09.25
Lig
Puebla
Necaxa
0
1
L
14.09.25
Lig
Puebla
Toluca
1
3
L
24.08.25
Lig
Puebla
U.N.A.M. - Pumas
0
0
D
09.08.25
Lig
Puebla
Tigres UANL
0
7
L
19.07.25
Lig
Puebla
Mazatlán
1
2
L
H2H away: Puebla
22.04.26
H2H
Monterrey
Puebla
2
1
L
13.01.25
H2H
Monterrey
Puebla
1
1
D
14.01.24
H2H
Monterrey
Puebla
2
0
L
27.07.22
H2H
Monterrey
Puebla
1
0
L
26.07.21
H2H
Monterrey
Puebla
1
1
D
23.11.20
H2H
Monterrey
Puebla
2
2
D
17.10.20
H2H
Monterrey
Puebla
3
1
L
21.09.19
H2H
Monterrey
Puebla
3
2
L

Standings

Liga MX, Clausura 2026
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 17 10 6 1 34:17 17 36
L D W L D
2 17 11 3 3 33:17 16 36
L D W L D
3 17 9 6 2 31:18 13 33
W D W D W
4 17 9 4 4 25:19 6 31
L W W W L
5 17 8 6 3 28:16 12 30
L L W L L
6 17 7 5 5 16:18 -2 26
L L W D W
7 17 7 4 6 28:18 10 25
L W W D D
8 17 7 4 6 20:17 3 25
D D L W W
9 17 5 8 4 19:17 2 23
D W D W W
10 17 7 1 9 22:32 -10 22
L L W W W
11 17 4 8 5 17:21 -4 20
W D D W D
12 17 5 4 8 26:32 -6 19
W L L L D
13 17 5 3 9 22:24 -2 18
L W L D L
14 17 5 3 9 24:27 -3 18
L W L D W
15 17 5 3 9 19:25 -6 18
L D D L W
16 17 4 3 10 22:37 -15 15
L W D L L
17 17 3 4 10 13:26 -13 13
L L L L D
18 17 3 3 11 20:38 -18 12
W L L L D
Playoffs