MEXICO LIGA MX
20.09.2026 01:10
Estadio BBVA
Referee: Jesus Rafael Lopez Valle
Monterrey
Match Timeline
Cruz Azul
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
7'
César Garza · Assist: Jesús Corona
Monterrey
🔄
45'
Jesús Orozco ↔ Alan Mozo
Cruz Azul
🟨
58'
César Garza
Monterrey
🟨
58'
Gabriel Fernández
Cruz Azul
🟨
60'
Gonzalo Piovi
Cruz Azul
🔄
61'
Daniel Aceves ↔ Stefan Medina
Monterrey
🔄
62'
José Paradela ↔ Osinachi Ebere
Cruz Azul
🔄
62'
Agustín Palavecino ↔ Luka Romero
Cruz Azul
🔄
76'
Jesús Corona ↔ Fidel Ambriz
Monterrey
🔄
76'
Lucas Orellano ↔ Jorge Rodríguez
Monterrey
🔄
79'
Ángel Márquez ↔ Nicolás Ibañez
Cruz Azul
🔄
79'
Gabriel Fernández ↔ Ariel Castro
Cruz Azul
🔄
88'
César Garza ↔ Iker Fimbres
Monterrey
🔄
88'
Óliver Torres ↔ Luis Reyes
Monterrey

Monterrey vs Cruz Azul Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 44.4%
Odds 3.10
BTTS
Yes
Probability 75%
Odds 1.53
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 66.7%
Odds 1.72
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
44.4%
3.10
BTTS Yes
75%
1.53
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
66.7%
1.72
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
1.18
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
7.50
Correct Score 1-2
-
12.00
Probability Distribution
Monterrey Win 41%
Draw 14.6%
Cruz Azul Win 44.4%
Expected Goals (xG)
Monterrey1.77
Cruz Azul1.75
Recent Form (Last 5)
Monterrey Monterrey
WWDLW
29 GF / 18 GA
Cruz Azul Cruz Azul
WLDWL
36 GF / 26 GA
Key Stats
1.93
Average Goals Scored
2.12
1.2
Average Goals Conceded
1.53
10
BTTS Yes
11
8
Over 2.5
13
6.27
Shots on Goal
7.36

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Monterrey Monterrey 15 matches
Cruz Azul Cruz Azul 17 matches
Monterrey Statistic Cruz Azul
7 Wins 9
4 Draws 3
4 Losses 5
29 Goals For 36
18 Goals Against 26
1.93 Avg Goals Scored 2.12
1.2 Avg Goals Conceded 1.53
10 BTTS Yes 11
14 Over 1.5 16
8 Over 2.5 13
5 Over 3.5 7
4 Clean Sheets 4
2 Failed To Score 2
6.27 Shots On Goal 7.36
17.27 Total Shots 20.14
5.73 Corners 7
57.6% Ball Possession 59.2%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match looks like a contest between two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Cruz Azul. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Monterrey expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Cruz Azul in 5-4-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Cruz Azul having the stronger overall control. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day.

Monterrey Analysis

Monterrey sit 12 with 9 points after 6 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Their record of 3 wins, 0 draws, and 3 losses, together with goals at 13:10, reflects mixed form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through L. Ocampos (4 goals), D. Rossi (1 goals), J. Corona (1 goals), with creative support from L. Ocampos (1 assists), D. Rossi (1 assists), Óliver Torres (1 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been very solid. At home, they have managed 2 wins, 0 draws, and 1 losses, a return that supports a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms they often show balanced attacking football.

Cruz Azul Analysis

Cruz Azul approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 8 with 12 points from 7 matches. Their record of 4 wins, 0 draws, and 3 losses, together with goals at 12:11, reflects mixed form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through J. Márquez (2 goals), L. Romero (1 goals), J. Paradela (1 goals), with creative support from L. Romero (2 assists), C. Rodríguez (2 assists), J. Paradela (1 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been very solid. Away from home, the split record of 2 wins, 0 draws, and 1 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader football approach still suggests balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Monterrey won 4 times, Cruz Azul won 7 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 19:25 from Monterrey's perspective. 9 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 9 matches, with an average of 2.93 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (85.4%)
Predicted formations: Monterrey 4-2-3-1 / Cruz Azul 5-4-1
H2H summary: Monterrey wins 4, draws 4, Cruz Azul wins 7

Standings

Liga MX: Apertura
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 8 6 1 1 18:6 12 19
W W W W D
2 8 5 2 1 15:6 9 17
W W D W W
3 7 5 1 1 15:6 9 16
L W W W W
4 8 5 0 3 16:14 2 15
W W W L L
5 9 4 2 3 11:11 0 14
D L W L W
6 7 4 1 2 10:7 3 13
W W L D W
7 8 4 1 3 11:9 2 13
W L D W W
8 7 4 1 2 10:8 2 13
L W L W D
9 8 4 1 3 12:14 -2 13
L D L W W
10 8 3 2 3 13:8 5 11
W W D D L
11 8 3 2 3 11:12 -1 11
L W L D D
12 7 3 1 3 13:10 3 10
D L L W W
13 8 2 2 4 9:13 -4 8
L D L D L
14 9 1 5 3 8:13 -5 8
D L D D L
15 9 1 4 4 9:13 -4 7
L D D D W
16 8 1 3 4 8:15 -7 6
L L W D L
17 8 1 1 6 6:13 -7 4
W L D L L
18 9 1 0 8 6:23 -17 3
W L L L L
Promotion - Liga MX (Apertura - Play Offs: Quarter-finals)