JAPAN J1 LEAGUE
20.09.2026 08:00
Machida GION Stadium

Machida Zelvia vs Kashiwa Reysol Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 54.1%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 82.5%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 66.7%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
54.1%
-
BTTS Yes
82.5%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
66.7%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Machida Zelvia Win 54.1%
Draw 8%
Kashiwa Reysol Win 37.9%
Expected Goals (xG)
Machida Zelvia2.2
Kashiwa Reysol1.46
Recent Form (Last 5)
Machida Zelvia Machida Zelvia
WWDLW
19 GF / 6 GA
Kashiwa Reysol Kashiwa Reysol
WLDWL
13 GF / 10 GA
Key Stats
2.71
Average Goals Scored
1.86
0.86
Average Goals Conceded
1.43
6
BTTS Yes
4
5
Over 2.5
4
5.43
Shots on Goal
4.71

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Machida Zelvia Machida Zelvia 7 matches
Kashiwa Reysol Kashiwa Reysol 7 matches
Machida Zelvia Statistic Kashiwa Reysol
5 Wins 5
2 Draws 0
0 Losses 2
19 Goals For 13
6 Goals Against 10
2.71 Avg Goals Scored 1.86
0.86 Avg Goals Conceded 1.43
6 BTTS Yes 4
7 Over 1.5 6
5 Over 2.5 4
4 Over 3.5 3
1 Clean Sheets 1
0 Failed To Score 2
5.43 Shots On Goal 4.71
14.43 Total Shots 14.29
4.14 Corners 5.43
49.3% Ball Possession 57.7%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

Looking at the broader profile of both teams, this encounter highlights two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Kashiwa Reysol. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day.

Machida Zelvia Analysis

Machida Zelvia approach this game with the confidence of a side sitting 1 on 17 points after 7 outings. They have recorded 5 wins, 2 draws, and 0 losses, with a 19:6 goal return and good form over their recent run. In attack they lean heavily on H. Nakamura (2 goals), T. Yengi (2 goals), T. Nishimura (2 goals), with creative support from Y. Soma (3 assists), Yuta Nakayama (2 assists), M. Duke (2 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. At home, their record of 2 wins, 1 draws, and 0 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their overall playing style can be described as balanced attacking football.

Kashiwa Reysol Analysis

Kashiwa Reysol come into this fixture from a strong position, holding 3 place with 15 points after 7 matches. With 5 wins, 0 draws, and 2 defeats plus a goal balance of 13:10, they continue to show good form over their recent run. Their attacking quality is driven by Y. Segawa (2 goals), Y. Koizumi (1 goals), T. Kubo (1 goals), with creative support from Masa (2 assists), Y. Koizumi (1 assists), T. Kubo (1 assists), and at the back they have appeared very solid. Away from home, the split of 3 wins, 0 draws, and 1 losses supports the view of a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their football identity still points toward balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 8 head-to-head meetings, Machida Zelvia won 4 times, Kashiwa Reysol won 3 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 8:6 from Machida Zelvia's perspective. 2 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 1 matches, with an average of 1.75 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (92%)
Predicted formations: Machida Zelvia 3-4-2-1 / Kashiwa Reysol 3-4-2-1
H2H summary: Machida Zelvia wins 4, draws 1, Kashiwa Reysol wins 3

Standings

J-League
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 7 5 2 0 19:6 13 17
D W W D W
2 7 5 1 1 11:5 6 16
W W W W L
3 7 5 0 2 13:10 3 15
W L L W W
4 7 4 2 1 19:6 13 14
W L W D D
5 7 4 2 1 13:8 5 14
W W D W W
6 7 4 1 2 10:8 2 13
W W W L D
7 7 3 3 1 13:9 4 12
W W L W D
8 7 4 0 3 14:13 1 12
L L L W W
9 7 3 2 2 11:9 2 11
D W D L W
10 7 3 1 3 6:11 -5 10
L D W L W
11 7 2 3 2 11:9 2 9
L D W D W
12 7 3 0 4 13:17 -4 9
L W W W L
13 7 2 1 4 4:7 -3 7
W L D L L
14 7 2 1 4 9:14 -5 7
W L D L L
15 7 1 3 3 8:13 -5 6
L L D D L
16 7 2 0 5 7:13 -6 6
L L L W W
17 7 1 2 4 9:14 -5 5
L L D W L
18 7 1 1 5 9:11 -2 4
L D L L L
19 7 0 4 3 3:9 -6 4
D D L L D
20 7 1 1 5 6:16 -10 4
D W L L L
Promotion - AFC Champions League (League phase)
Relegation - J2 League