VENEZUELA PRIMERA DIVISIóN
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Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 45.3%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 75.1%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 72%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
45.3%
-
BTTS Yes
75.1%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
72%
-
Corners O/U Under 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
-
Correct Score 1-2
-
-
Probability Distribution
Monagas SC Win 39.7%
Draw 15%
Carabobo FC Win 45.3%
Expected Goals (xG)
Monagas SC1.01
Carabobo FC1.66
Recent Form (Last 5)
Monagas SC Monagas SC
WWDLW
16 GF / 26 GA
Carabobo FC Carabobo FC
WLDWL
42 GF / 24 GA
Key Stats
1.07
Average Goals Scored
1.62
1.73
Average Goals Conceded
0.92
8
BTTS Yes
14
9
Over 2.5
10
0
Shots on Goal
2.67

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Monagas SC Monagas SC 15 matches
Carabobo FC Carabobo FC 26 matches
Monagas SC Statistic Carabobo FC
3 Wins 12
2 Draws 9
10 Losses 5
16 Goals For 42
26 Goals Against 24
1.07 Avg Goals Scored 1.62
1.73 Avg Goals Conceded 0.92
8 BTTS Yes 14
12 Over 1.5 17
9 Over 2.5 10
4 Over 3.5 6
2 Clean Sheets 10
5 Failed To Score 6
0 Shots On Goal 2.67
0 Total Shots 9.17
0 Corners 3.33
0% Ball Possession 29.3%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by Carabobo FC's more proactive style and Monagas SC's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Carabobo FC carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 7 with 19 points while Monagas SC sit 12 on 11, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Carabobo FC. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Carabobo FC having the stronger overall control.

Monagas SC Analysis

Monagas SC are currently 12 in the standings with 11 points from 13 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 3 wins, 2 draws, and 8 losses, while the 14:22 goal ratio supports the view of poor form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on their main attacking players, and defensively they have been very solid. At home, their split return of 3 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they usually display a more cautious and defensive approach.

Carabobo FC Analysis

Carabobo FC are currently 7 in the standings with 19 points from 13 matches. The record of 4 wins, 7 draws, and 2 defeats, together with a 23:14 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through their main attacking players, while at the back they have looked very solid. Away from home, the record of 0 wins, 4 draws, and 2 losses points toward a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Monagas SC won 2 times, Carabobo FC won 6 times, while 7 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 11:17 from Monagas SC's perspective. 4 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 7 matches, with an average of 1.87 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (85%)
H2H summary: Monagas SC wins 2, draws 7, Carabobo FC wins 6
Last matches: Monagas SC
04.08.26
Pri
Monagas SC
UCV
1
2
L
01.08.26
Pri
Monagas SC
Deportivo La Guaira
1
2
L
25.04.26
Pri
Monagas SC
Puerto Cabello
1
1
D
19.04.26
Pri
Monagas SC
Estudiantes de Merida FC
2
3
L
11.04.26
Pri
Monagas SC
Rayo Zuliano
3
0
W
04.04.26
Pri
Monagas SC
Zamora FC
1
2
L
22.03.26
Pri
Monagas SC
Caracas FC
1
1
D
18.03.26
Pri
Monagas SC
Metropolitanos FC
0
1
L
14.03.26
Pri
Monagas SC
Anzoátegui FC
1
0
W
08.03.26
Pri
Monagas SC
Trujillanos FC
3
1
W
27.02.26
Pri
Monagas SC
Portuguesa FC
0
4
L
22.02.26
Pri
Monagas SC
Deportivo Tachira FC
2
3
L
13.02.26
Pri
Monagas SC
Carabobo FC
0
1
L
07.02.26
Pri
Monagas SC
UCV
0
3
L
31.01.26
Pri
Monagas SC
Deportivo La Guaira
0
2
L
Last matches: Carabobo FC
04.08.26
Pri
Carabobo FC
Trujillanos FC
2
0
W
31.07.26
Pri
Carabobo FC
Portuguesa FC
0
1
L
07.06.26
Pri
Carabobo FC
Puerto Cabello
2
1
W
31.05.26
Pri
Carabobo FC
Metropolitanos FC
5
1
W
24.05.26
Pri
Carabobo FC
Deportivo Tachira FC
1
1
D
17.05.26
Pri
Carabobo FC
Estudiantes de Merida FC
2
0
W
13.05.26
Pri
Carabobo FC
Estudiantes de Merida FC
1
0
W
10.05.26
Pri
Carabobo FC
Deportivo Tachira FC
1
3
L
03.05.26
Pri
Carabobo FC
Metropolitanos FC
0
0
D
25.04.26
Pri
Carabobo FC
Deportivo Tachira FC
1
2
L
20.04.26
Pri
Carabobo FC
Anzoátegui FC
6
3
W
12.04.26
Pri
Carabobo FC
UCV
4
2
W
02.04.26
Pri
Carabobo FC
Deportivo La Guaira
1
1
D
23.03.26
Pri
Carabobo FC
Puerto Cabello
1
1
D
18.03.26
Pri
Carabobo FC
Estudiantes de Merida FC
2
3
L
15.03.26
Pri
Carabobo FC
Rayo Zuliano
5
0
W
11.03.26
CON
Carabobo FC
Sporting Cristal
2
1
W
07.03.26
Pri
Carabobo FC
Zamora FC
0
0
D
04.03.26
CON
Carabobo FC
Sporting Cristal
0
1
L
28.02.26
Pri
Carabobo FC
Caracas FC
0
0
D
H2H: Monagas SC vs Carabobo FC
13.02.26
H2H
Carabobo FC
Monagas SC
1
0
L
24.09.25
H2H
Carabobo FC
Monagas SC
3
1
L
17.09.25
H2H
Monagas SC
Carabobo FC
1
1
D
16.08.25
H2H
Monagas SC
Carabobo FC
2
0
W
08.03.25
H2H
Carabobo FC
Monagas SC
1
0
L
14.11.24
H2H
Carabobo FC
Monagas SC
1
0
L
30.10.24
H2H
Monagas SC
Carabobo FC
1
1
D
08.08.24
H2H
Carabobo FC
Monagas SC
0
0
D
18.02.24
H2H
Monagas SC
Carabobo FC
0
0
D
26.01.24
H2H
Carabobo FC
Monagas SC
1
1
D
13.08.23
H2H
Monagas SC
Carabobo FC
1
1
D
31.03.23
H2H
Carabobo FC
Monagas SC
3
0
L
15.10.22
H2H
Monagas SC
Carabobo FC
2
1
W
08.10.22
H2H
Carabobo FC
Monagas SC
3
2
L
14.09.22
H2H
Monagas SC
Carabobo FC
0
0
D
Last matches: Monagas SC
01.08.26
Pri
Monagas SC
Deportivo La Guaira
1
2
L
25.04.26
Pri
Monagas SC
Puerto Cabello
1
1
D
11.04.26
Pri
Monagas SC
Rayo Zuliano
3
0
W
22.03.26
Pri
Monagas SC
Caracas FC
1
1
D
14.03.26
Pri
Monagas SC
Anzoátegui FC
1
0
W
08.03.26
Pri
Monagas SC
Trujillanos FC
3
1
W
22.02.26
Pri
Monagas SC
Deportivo Tachira FC
2
3
L
07.02.26
Pri
Monagas SC
UCV
0
3
L
H2H at home: Monagas SC
17.09.25
H2H
Monagas SC
Carabobo FC
1
1
D
16.08.25
H2H
Monagas SC
Carabobo FC
2
0
W
30.10.24
H2H
Monagas SC
Carabobo FC
1
1
D
18.02.24
H2H
Monagas SC
Carabobo FC
0
0
D
13.08.23
H2H
Monagas SC
Carabobo FC
1
1
D
15.10.22
H2H
Monagas SC
Carabobo FC
2
1
W
14.09.22
H2H
Monagas SC
Carabobo FC
0
0
D
Last matches: Carabobo FC
31.07.26
Pri
Carabobo FC
Portuguesa FC
0
1
L
31.05.26
Pri
Carabobo FC
Metropolitanos FC
5
1
W
17.05.26
Pri
Carabobo FC
Estudiantes de Merida FC
2
0
W
10.05.26
Pri
Carabobo FC
Deportivo Tachira FC
1
3
L
25.04.26
Pri
Carabobo FC
Deportivo Tachira FC
1
2
L
02.04.26
Pri
Carabobo FC
Deportivo La Guaira
1
1
D
18.03.26
Pri
Carabobo FC
Estudiantes de Merida FC
2
3
L
11.03.26
CON
Carabobo FC
Sporting Cristal
2
1
W
07.03.26
Pri
Carabobo FC
Zamora FC
0
0
D
24.02.26
CON
Carabobo FC
Huachipato
2
1
W
20.02.26
Pri
Carabobo FC
Metropolitanos FC
1
1
D
08.02.26
Pri
Carabobo FC
Trujillanos FC
1
1
D
H2H away: Carabobo FC
17.09.25
H2H
Monagas SC
Carabobo FC
1
1
D
16.08.25
H2H
Monagas SC
Carabobo FC
2
0
L
30.10.24
H2H
Monagas SC
Carabobo FC
1
1
D
18.02.24
H2H
Monagas SC
Carabobo FC
0
0
D
13.08.23
H2H
Monagas SC
Carabobo FC
1
1
D
15.10.22
H2H
Monagas SC
Carabobo FC
2
1
L
14.09.22
H2H
Monagas SC
Carabobo FC
0
0
D

Standings

Primera Division: Apertura
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 13 7 6 0 15:6 9 27
W D W D W
2 13 7 4 2 17:10 7 25
W W D L W
3 13 7 3 3 17:12 5 24
W D L W W
4 13 7 2 4 24:20 4 23
L D L W L
5 13 5 5 3 20:12 8 20
W D W L D
6 13 6 2 5 21:18 3 20
L W W W L
7 13 4 7 2 23:14 9 19
L W W D D
8 13 4 5 4 16:14 2 17
D W L L D
9 13 4 5 4 14:14 0 17
D D D W W
10 13 3 6 4 15:17 -2 15
W D L W D
11 13 4 2 7 13:23 -10 14
L L L W D
12 13 3 2 8 14:22 -8 11
D L W L D
13 13 2 3 8 15:25 -10 9
D L W L L
14 13 0 4 9 9:26 -17 4
L L L L L
Promotion - Liga FUTVE (Apertura - Quadrangular)