URUGUAY SEGUNDA DIVISIóN
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Parque Palermo

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 53.1%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 67.1%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 64.5%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
53.1%
-
BTTS Yes
67.1%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
64.5%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Miramar Win 53.1%
Draw 25.9%
La Luz Win 21%
Expected Goals (xG)
Miramar0.99
La Luz0.96
Recent Form (Last 5)
Miramar Miramar
WWDLW
17 GF / 19 GA
La Luz La Luz
WLDWL
13 GF / 14 GA
Key Stats
1.06
Average Goals Scored
0.81
1.19
Average Goals Conceded
0.88
9
BTTS Yes
5
5
Over 2.5
4
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Miramar Miramar 16 matches
La Luz La Luz 16 matches
Miramar Statistic La Luz
4 Wins 4
6 Draws 8
6 Losses 4
17 Goals For 13
19 Goals Against 14
1.06 Avg Goals Scored 0.81
1.19 Avg Goals Conceded 0.88
9 BTTS Yes 5
11 Over 1.5 10
5 Over 2.5 4
4 Over 3.5 2
2 Clean Sheets 8
6 Failed To Score 8
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From a tactical perspective, this fixture features Miramar's more proactive style and La Luz's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring La Luz. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. La Luz arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward La Luz having the stronger overall control.

Miramar Analysis

So far, Miramar have built a campaign that leaves them 6 in the table on 13 points from 9 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 3 wins, 4 draws, and 2 losses, while the 14:11 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on their main attacking players, and defensively they have been very solid. At home, they have returned 0 wins, 4 draws, and 1 losses, a split that suggests a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

La Luz Analysis

La Luz sit 12 with 10 points after 9 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. The overall return of 2 wins, 4 draws, and 3 defeats with a 6:8 goal balance points toward poor form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on their main attacking players, while defensively they have looked very solid. Away from home, the split record of 0 wins, 3 draws, and 2 losses points to a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 2 head-to-head meetings, Miramar won 0 times, La Luz won 1 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 2:4 from Miramar's perspective. 1 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 2 matches, with an average of 3 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 1X (79%)
H2H summary: Miramar wins 0, draws 1, La Luz wins 1
Last matches: Miramar
12.07.26
Seg
Miramar
Cerrito
0
1
L
06.07.26
Seg
Miramar
Atenas
1
1
D
27.06.26
Seg
Miramar
Paysandu
3
2
W
19.06.26
Seg
Miramar
Sportivo Huracan
0
1
L
13.06.26
Seg
Miramar
Uruguay Montevideo
3
1
W
08.06.26
Seg
Miramar
Oriental
2
2
D
30.05.26
Seg
Miramar
Colón
3
1
W
25.05.26
Seg
Miramar
Fenix
1
1
D
17.05.26
Seg
Miramar
Rentistas
0
1
L
10.05.26
Seg
Miramar
CA River Plate
1
1
D
29.04.26
Seg
Miramar
Rentistas
1
1
D
18.04.26
Seg
Miramar
Colón
0
0
D
12.04.26
Seg
Miramar
Oriental
1
2
L
06.04.26
Seg
Miramar
CA River Plate
1
0
W
27.03.26
Seg
Miramar
Paysandu
0
2
L
22.03.26
Seg
Miramar
Plaza Colonia
0
2
L
07.11.25
Pri
Miramar
Racing Montevideo
0
2
L
02.11.25
Pri
Miramar
CA River Plate
1
1
D
27.10.25
Pri
Miramar
Boston River
0
4
L
18.10.25
Pri
Miramar
Club Nacional
1
3
L
Last matches: La Luz
13.07.26
Seg
La Luz
Tacuarembo
2
0
W
04.07.26
Seg
La Luz
Plaza Colonia
0
1
L
28.06.26
Seg
La Luz
CA River Plate
0
0
D
21.06.26
Seg
La Luz
Cerrito
2
0
W
14.06.26
Seg
La Luz
Atenas
0
4
L
06.06.26
Seg
La Luz
Paysandu
1
2
L
31.05.26
Seg
La Luz
Sportivo Huracan
1
1
D
24.05.26
Seg
La Luz
Uruguay Montevideo
2
0
W
17.05.26
Seg
La Luz
Oriental
0
0
D
09.05.26
Seg
La Luz
Colón
0
0
D
18.04.26
Seg
La Luz
Cerrito
0
0
D
11.04.26
Seg
La Luz
Uruguay Montevideo
0
2
L
04.04.26
Seg
La Luz
Atenas
2
1
W
28.03.26
Seg
La Luz
Sportivo Huracan
2
2
D
22.03.26
Seg
La Luz
Fenix
0
0
D
17.03.26
Seg
La Luz
Tacuarembo
1
1
D
26.10.25
Seg
La Luz
Deportivo Maldonado
1
1
D
18.10.25
Seg
La Luz
Oriental
1
1
D
11.10.25
Seg
La Luz
Uruguay Montevideo
0
0
D
04.10.25
Seg
La Luz
Albion FC
1
0
W
H2H: Miramar vs La Luz
29.07.22
H2H
Miramar
La Luz
1
1
D
08.05.22
H2H
La Luz
Miramar
3
1
L
Last matches: Miramar
06.07.26
Seg
Miramar
Atenas
1
1
D
19.06.26
Seg
Miramar
Sportivo Huracan
0
1
L
08.06.26
Seg
Miramar
Oriental
2
2
D
25.05.26
Seg
Miramar
Fenix
1
1
D
10.05.26
Seg
Miramar
CA River Plate
1
1
D
18.04.26
Seg
Miramar
Colón
0
0
D
06.04.26
Seg
Miramar
CA River Plate
1
0
W
22.03.26
Seg
Miramar
Plaza Colonia
0
2
L
07.11.25
Pri
Miramar
Racing Montevideo
0
2
L
27.10.25
Pri
Miramar
Boston River
0
4
L
11.10.25
Pri
Miramar
Penarol
2
2
D
29.09.25
Pri
Miramar
Defensor Sporting
0
0
D
14.09.25
Pri
Miramar
Wanderers
3
0
W
23.08.25
Pri
Miramar
Cerro Largo
1
1
D
10.08.25
Pri
Miramar
Liverpool Montevideo
0
1
L
29.11.23
Seg
Miramar
SUD America
1
1
D
21.11.23
Seg
Miramar
Atenas
0
1
L
12.11.23
Seg
Miramar
Oriental
1
0
W
25.10.23
Seg
Miramar
Potencia
3
0
W
15.10.23
Seg
Miramar
Rentistas
0
0
D
H2H at home: Miramar
29.07.22
H2H
Miramar
La Luz
1
1
D
Last matches: La Luz
04.07.26
Seg
La Luz
Plaza Colonia
0
1
L
28.06.26
Seg
La Luz
CA River Plate
0
0
D
14.06.26
Seg
La Luz
Atenas
0
4
L
31.05.26
Seg
La Luz
Sportivo Huracan
1
1
D
17.05.26
Seg
La Luz
Oriental
0
0
D
18.04.26
Seg
La Luz
Cerrito
0
0
D
22.03.26
Seg
La Luz
Fenix
0
0
D
17.03.26
Seg
La Luz
Tacuarembo
1
1
D
26.10.25
Seg
La Luz
Deportivo Maldonado
1
1
D
11.10.25
Seg
La Luz
Uruguay Montevideo
0
0
D
27.09.25
Seg
La Luz
Fenix
2
0
W
13.09.25
Seg
La Luz
Atenas
3
2
W
30.08.25
Seg
La Luz
Tacuarembo
1
1
D
20.08.25
Seg
La Luz
Artigas
1
1
D
16.08.25
Seg
La Luz
Cerrito
0
1
L
26.07.25
Seg
La Luz
Oriental
2
2
D
13.07.25
Seg
La Luz
Albion FC
0
3
L
28.06.25
Seg
La Luz
Rampla Juniors
0
4
L
15.06.25
Seg
La Luz
Central Espanol
0
0
D
04.06.25
Seg
La Luz
Rentistas
2
3
L
H2H away: La Luz
29.07.22
H2H
Miramar
La Luz
1
1
D

Standings

Segunda Division: Tabla Anual
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 16 7 6 3 23:21 2 27
W D W L L
2 16 7 4 5 19:13 6 25
L W L L W
3 16 6 7 3 23:18 5 25
D L D D W
4 15 6 6 3 27:18 9 24
W L D D W
5 16 6 6 4 18:14 4 24
W W D W D
6 16 7 2 7 23:22 1 23
L D W W W
7 16 6 5 5 17:18 -1 23
W L W W L
8 16 5 7 4 17:18 -1 22
L L L W W
9 16 6 3 7 23:29 -6 21
W W D L W
10 16 4 6 6 17:19 -2 18
L D W L W
11 16 4 5 7 17:20 -3 17
D L W L L
12 15 3 8 4 11:14 -3 17
L D W L L
13 15 4 5 6 13:17 -4 17
D L W L W
14 15 3 2 10 15:22 -7 11
W L L L W
Promotion - Liga AUF Uruguaya (Apertura)
Promotion - Segunda Division (Promotion - Play Offs: Semi-finals)