URUGUAY SEGUNDA DIVISIóN
--.--.---- --:--
Parque Palermo
Miramar
Match Timeline
La Luz
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
9'
La Luz
La Luz

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home or Draw
Probability 78%
Odds -
1 agree / 0 disagree
BTTS
Yes
Probability 58.2%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 51.1%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home or Draw
78%
-
BTTS Yes
58.2%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
51.1%
-
Corners O/U Under 11.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Draw / Draw
-
-
Correct Score 1-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Miramar Win 41.4%
Draw 36.6%
La Luz Win 22%
Expected Goals (xG)
Miramar0.99
La Luz0.96
Recent Form (Last 5)
Miramar Miramar
WWDLW
17 GF / 19 GA
La Luz La Luz
WLDWL
13 GF / 14 GA
Key Stats
1.06
Average Goals Scored
0.81
1.19
Average Goals Conceded
0.88
9
BTTS Yes
5
5
Over 2.5
4
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Miramar Miramar 16 matches
La Luz La Luz 16 matches
Miramar Statistic La Luz
4 Wins 4
6 Draws 8
6 Losses 4
17 Goals For 13
19 Goals Against 14
1.06 Avg Goals Scored 0.81
1.19 Avg Goals Conceded 0.88
9 BTTS Yes 5
11 Over 1.5 10
5 Over 2.5 4
4 Over 3.5 2
2 Clean Sheets 8
6 Failed To Score 8
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This contest looks finely balanced, with Miramar's more proactive style and La Luz's more cautious structure suggesting a close tactical battle. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward La Luz. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward La Luz having the stronger overall control. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest.

Miramar Analysis

Miramar sit 8 with 13 points after 10 league matches. The record of 3 wins, 4 draws, and 3 defeats, together with a 14:12 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through their main attacking players, while at the back they have looked very solid. At home, the record of 0 wins, 4 draws, and 1 losses points toward a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.

La Luz Analysis

La Luz are currently 9 in the standings with 13 points from 10 matches. Their overall return of 3 wins, 4 draws, and 3 losses with goals at 8:8 reflects mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by their main attacking players, while defensively they have appeared very solid. Away from home, the record of 0 wins, 3 draws, and 2 losses points toward a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 3 head-to-head meetings, Miramar won 0 times, La Luz won 2 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 2:5 from Miramar's perspective. 1 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 2 matches, with an average of 2.33 goals per game.

1X2: Home or Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 1X (78%)
H2H summary: Miramar wins 0, draws 1, La Luz wins 2
Last matches: Miramar
21.08.26
Seg
Miramar
Rentistas
1
1
D
15.08.26
Seg
Miramar
CA River Plate
0
3
L
09.08.26
Seg
Miramar
Tacuarembo
1
1
D
01.08.26
Seg
Miramar
Plaza Colonia
0
3
L
12.07.26
Seg
Miramar
Cerrito
0
1
L
06.07.26
Seg
Miramar
Atenas
1
1
D
27.06.26
Seg
Miramar
Paysandu
3
2
W
19.06.26
Seg
Miramar
Sportivo Huracan
0
1
L
13.06.26
Seg
Miramar
Uruguay Montevideo
3
1
W
08.06.26
Seg
Miramar
Oriental
2
2
D
30.05.26
Seg
Miramar
Colón
3
1
W
25.05.26
Seg
Miramar
Fenix
1
1
D
17.05.26
Seg
Miramar
Rentistas
0
1
L
10.05.26
Seg
Miramar
CA River Plate
1
1
D
29.04.26
Seg
Miramar
Rentistas
1
1
D
18.04.26
Seg
Miramar
Colón
0
0
D
12.04.26
Seg
Miramar
Oriental
1
2
L
06.04.26
Seg
Miramar
CA River Plate
1
0
W
27.03.26
Seg
Miramar
Paysandu
0
2
L
22.03.26
Seg
Miramar
Plaza Colonia
0
2
L
Last matches: La Luz
29.08.26
Seg
La Luz
Uruguay Montevideo
0
0
D
23.08.26
Seg
La Luz
Oriental
0
2
L
16.08.26
Seg
La Luz
Colón
1
2
L
08.08.26
Seg
La Luz
Fenix
0
0
D
01.08.26
Seg
La Luz
Rentistas
2
5
L
13.07.26
Seg
La Luz
Tacuarembo
2
0
W
04.07.26
Seg
La Luz
Plaza Colonia
0
1
L
28.06.26
Seg
La Luz
CA River Plate
0
0
D
21.06.26
Seg
La Luz
Cerrito
2
0
W
14.06.26
Seg
La Luz
Atenas
0
4
L
06.06.26
Seg
La Luz
Paysandu
1
2
L
31.05.26
Seg
La Luz
Sportivo Huracan
1
1
D
24.05.26
Seg
La Luz
Uruguay Montevideo
2
0
W
17.05.26
Seg
La Luz
Oriental
0
0
D
09.05.26
Seg
La Luz
Colón
0
0
D
18.04.26
Seg
La Luz
Cerrito
0
0
D
11.04.26
Seg
La Luz
Uruguay Montevideo
0
2
L
04.04.26
Seg
La Luz
Atenas
2
1
W
28.03.26
Seg
La Luz
Sportivo Huracan
2
2
D
22.03.26
Seg
La Luz
Fenix
0
0
D
H2H: Miramar vs La Luz
26.07.26
H2H
Miramar
La Luz
0
1
L
29.07.22
H2H
Miramar
La Luz
1
1
D
08.05.22
H2H
La Luz
Miramar
3
1
L
Last matches: Miramar
21.08.26
Seg
Miramar
Rentistas
1
1
D
09.08.26
Seg
Miramar
Tacuarembo
1
1
D
06.07.26
Seg
Miramar
Atenas
1
1
D
19.06.26
Seg
Miramar
Sportivo Huracan
0
1
L
08.06.26
Seg
Miramar
Oriental
2
2
D
25.05.26
Seg
Miramar
Fenix
1
1
D
10.05.26
Seg
Miramar
CA River Plate
1
1
D
18.04.26
Seg
Miramar
Colón
0
0
D
06.04.26
Seg
Miramar
CA River Plate
1
0
W
22.03.26
Seg
Miramar
Plaza Colonia
0
2
L
07.11.25
Pri
Miramar
Racing Montevideo
0
2
L
27.10.25
Pri
Miramar
Boston River
0
4
L
11.10.25
Pri
Miramar
Penarol
2
2
D
29.09.25
Pri
Miramar
Defensor Sporting
0
0
D
14.09.25
Pri
Miramar
Wanderers
3
0
W
23.08.25
Pri
Miramar
Cerro Largo
1
1
D
10.08.25
Pri
Miramar
Liverpool Montevideo
0
1
L
29.11.23
Seg
Miramar
SUD America
1
1
D
21.11.23
Seg
Miramar
Atenas
0
1
L
12.11.23
Seg
Miramar
Oriental
1
0
W
H2H at home: Miramar
26.07.26
H2H
Miramar
La Luz
0
1
L
29.07.22
H2H
Miramar
La Luz
1
1
D
Last matches: La Luz
29.08.26
Seg
La Luz
Uruguay Montevideo
0
0
D
16.08.26
Seg
La Luz
Colón
1
2
L
08.08.26
Seg
La Luz
Fenix
0
0
D
04.07.26
Seg
La Luz
Plaza Colonia
0
1
L
28.06.26
Seg
La Luz
CA River Plate
0
0
D
14.06.26
Seg
La Luz
Atenas
0
4
L
31.05.26
Seg
La Luz
Sportivo Huracan
1
1
D
17.05.26
Seg
La Luz
Oriental
0
0
D
18.04.26
Seg
La Luz
Cerrito
0
0
D
22.03.26
Seg
La Luz
Fenix
0
0
D
17.03.26
Seg
La Luz
Tacuarembo
1
1
D
26.10.25
Seg
La Luz
Deportivo Maldonado
1
1
D
11.10.25
Seg
La Luz
Uruguay Montevideo
0
0
D
27.09.25
Seg
La Luz
Fenix
2
0
W
13.09.25
Seg
La Luz
Atenas
3
2
W
30.08.25
Seg
La Luz
Tacuarembo
1
1
D
20.08.25
Seg
La Luz
Artigas
1
1
D
16.08.25
Seg
La Luz
Cerrito
0
1
L
26.07.25
Seg
La Luz
Oriental
2
2
D
13.07.25
Seg
La Luz
Albion FC
0
3
L
H2H away: La Luz
26.07.26
H2H
Miramar
La Luz
0
1
W
29.07.22
H2H
Miramar
La Luz
1
1
D

Standings

1st Phase
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 6 4 1 1 8:5 3 13
L W W W D
2 6 3 3 0 9:2 7 12
W D D W W
3 6 3 2 1 13:7 6 11
W L W W D
4 6 2 4 0 9:6 3 10
D W W D D
5 6 2 3 1 8:5 3 9
D W D L D
6 6 2 3 1 7:5 2 9
D W L W D
7 6 2 3 1 6:5 1 9
D L W W D
8 6 2 3 1 8:8 0 9
D D L W D
9 6 1 4 1 5:6 -1 7
D L W D D
10 6 1 2 3 3:7 -4 5
D D L W L
11 6 1 1 4 4:7 -3 4
L D L L W
12 6 1 1 4 5:11 -6 4
L W L L L
13 6 1 1 4 6:13 -7 4
W L L L D
14 6 0 3 3 5:9 -4 3
D L L L D