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🇺🇸 USA › MAJOR LEAGUE SOCCER
11.10.2026 00:30
Allianz Field
Referee: Marcos De Oliveira
Minnesota United FC
Match Timeline
Houston Dynamo
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
⚽
18'
L. Foster
Houston Dynamo
⚽
48'
K. Yeboah · Assist: M. Duggan
Minnesota United FC
🔄
63'
O. Gene ↔ N. Triantis
Minnesota United FC
🔄
63'
B. Hlongwane ↔ M. Caldeira
Minnesota United FC
🔄
63'
A. Jackson ↔ M. Gonzalez
Minnesota United FC
🔄
63'
Felipe Andrade ↔ F. Negri
Houston Dynamo
🔄
63'
L. Foster ↔ N. Markanich
Houston Dynamo
🟨
66'
Mauricio González
Minnesota United FC
🔄
75'
J. Bond ↔ B. Gillingham
Houston Dynamo
⚽
78'
M. Caldeira · Assist: C. Valerius
Minnesota United FC
🟨
82'
Wil Trapp
Minnesota United FC
🔄
84'
L. Ennali ↔ D. Holmes
Houston Dynamo
🔄
85'
D. Samassekou ↔ M. Arana
Houston Dynamo
🔄
88'
C. Valerius ↔ K. Duncan
Minnesota United FC
🔄
88'
T. Chancalay ↔ C. Harvey
Minnesota United FC
🔄
89'
A. Bouzat ↔ D. McGuire
Houston Dynamo
🔄
90+6'
K. Yeboah ↔ M. Malone
Minnesota United FC
⚽
90'
D. McGuire · Assist: N. Markanich
Houston Dynamo

Minnesota United FC vs Houston Dynamo Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 72.4%
Odds 3.54
BTTS
Yes
Probability 75.1%
Odds 1.62
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 77.2%
Odds 1.80
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
72.4%
3.54 ▥
BTTS Yes
75.1%
1.62 ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
77.2%
1.80 ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
89.1%
- ▥
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
8.00 ▥
Correct Score 1-2
-
8.50 ▥
Probability Distribution
Minnesota United FC Win 21.3%
Draw 6.3%
Houston Dynamo Win 72.4%
Expected Goals (xG)
Minnesota United FC1.35
Houston Dynamo1.6
Recent Form (Last 5)
Minnesota United FC Minnesota United FC
WWDLW
44 GF / 51 GA
Houston Dynamo Houston Dynamo
WLDWL
55 GF / 42 GA
Key Stats
1.47
Average Goals Scored
1.53
1.7
Average Goals Conceded
1.17
20
BTTS Yes
17
19
Over 2.5
16
4.78
Shots on Goal
4.44

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Minnesota United FC Minnesota United FC 30 matches
Houston Dynamo Houston Dynamo 36 matches
Minnesota United FC Statistic Houston Dynamo
8 Wins 20
9 Draws 7
13 Losses 9
44 Goals For 55
51 Goals Against 42
1.47 Avg Goals Scored 1.53
1.7 Avg Goals Conceded 1.17
20 BTTS Yes 17
23 Over 1.5 26
19 Over 2.5 16
11 Over 3.5 8
7 Clean Sheets 13
6 Failed To Score 8
4.78 Shots On Goal 4.44
13.48 Total Shots 13.19
5.44 Corners 4.3
46% Ball Possession 47.8%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From the opening view, this looks like a meeting between teams arriving with different levels of stability, reinforced by Houston Dynamo's more proactive style and Minnesota United FC's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Minnesota United FC expected to line up in 3-4-1-2 and Houston Dynamo in 4-4-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Houston Dynamo having the stronger overall control. Houston Dynamo carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 5 with 44 points while Minnesota United FC sit 14 on 29, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Given the broader gap between the sides, Away Win looks like the most logical direction, while the clean-sheet expectation leans toward Houston Dynamo. Minnesota United FC have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors.

Minnesota United FC Analysis

Minnesota United FC approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 14 with 29 points from 27 matches. Across the season they have posted 7 wins, 8 draws, and 12 defeats, and the 40:49 goal record continues to suggest poor form and are going through a difficult losing run. Their attacking burden often falls on K. Yeboah (10 goals), A. Markanich (7 goals), Marcus Caldeira (4 goals), with creative support from Joaquín Pereyra (7 assists), T. Chancalay (3 assists), K. Yeboah (2 assists), while at the back they have been quite vulnerable. At home, they have managed 2 wins, 6 draws, and 5 losses, a return that supports a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

Houston Dynamo Analysis

Houston Dynamo come into this match from a strong league position, sitting 5 with 44 points from 27 matches. Their overall return of 13 wins, 5 draws, and 9 losses with goals at 34:32 reflects poor form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by Guilherme (8 goals), M. Bogusz (5 goals), L. Ennali (2 goals), with creative support from Guilherme (3 assists), L. Ennali (3 assists), Jack McGlynn (2 assists), while defensively they have appeared fairly stable. Away from home, their split return of 5 wins, 2 draws, and 6 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Minnesota United FC won 8 times, Houston Dynamo won 4 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 23:20 from Minnesota United FC's perspective. 10 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 8 matches, with an average of 2.87 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (93.7%)
Predicted formations: Minnesota United FC 3-4-1-2 / Houston Dynamo 4-4-2
Missing players: Minnesota United FC 4, Houston Dynamo 3
H2H summary: Minnesota United FC wins 8, draws 3, Houston Dynamo wins 4

Standings

Western Conference
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 29 15 7 7 61:30 31 52
D D L D W
2 29 14 9 6 54:38 16 51
D W W W W
3 29 14 8 7 53:45 8 50
W L W D W
4 29 13 8 8 51:41 10 47
D D W D W
5 29 13 7 9 39:37 2 46
D D L D L
6 30 12 9 9 47:32 15 45
W D L D L
7 29 11 8 10 38:36 2 41
L W W W W
8 30 10 9 11 41:50 -9 39
W L W W D
9 29 11 5 13 41:41 0 38
D D L D W
10 29 9 6 14 51:56 -5 33
L D L L L
11 29 9 6 14 42:47 -5 33
D L W L L
12 29 8 9 12 51:54 -3 33
D L D D L
13 29 7 10 12 44:53 -9 31
D D L L L
14 29 7 10 12 37:54 -17 31
L L D D W
15 29 6 4 19 35:72 -37 22
L D L W L
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/8-finals)
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/16-finals)