ENGLAND LEAGUE TWO
--.--.---- --:--
Stadium MK
Referee: T. Reeves
Milton Keynes Dons
Match Timeline
Tranmere
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
18'
N. Mendez-Laing
Milton Keynes Dons
21'
A. Gilbey · Assist: N. Mendez-Laing
Milton Keynes Dons
🔄
38'
O. Patrick ↔ J. Ironside
Tranmere
🔄
46'
K. Woolery ↔ K. Dennis
Tranmere
🟨
66'
Sam Finley
Tranmere
🔄
70'
J. Plant ↔ E. Bristow
Tranmere
🔄
72'
G. Jones ↔ A. Nemane
Milton Keynes Dons
🔄
73'
N. Mendez-Laing ↔ A. Collins
Milton Keynes Dons
🟨
77'
Ethan Bristow
Tranmere
78'
C. Paterson · Assist: L. Kelly
Milton Keynes Dons
🔄
79'
S. Finley ↔ N. Kenneh
Tranmere
🔄
80'
L. Kelly ↔ D. Crowley
Milton Keynes Dons
🔄
88'
C. Paterson ↔ R. Hepburn-Murphy
Milton Keynes Dons
🔄
88'
B. Wiles ↔ L. Offord
Milton Keynes Dons

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 68.3%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 79.1%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 57.3%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
68.3%
-
BTTS BTTS Yes
79.1%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
57.3%
-
Probability Distribution
Milton Keynes Dons Win 68.3%
Draw 13.9%
Tranmere Win 17.9%
Expected Goals (xG)
Milton Keynes Dons1.83
Tranmere1.13
Recent Form (Last 5)
Milton Keynes Dons Milton Keynes Dons
WWDLW
89 GF / 48 GA
Tranmere Tranmere
WLDWL
54 GF / 78 GA
Key Stats
1.89
Average Goals Scored
1.2
1.02
Average Goals Conceded
1.73
30
BTTS Yes
27
26
Over 2.5
25
4.54
Shots on Goal
3.73

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Milton Keynes Dons Milton Keynes Dons 47 matches
Tranmere Tranmere 45 matches
Milton Keynes Dons Statistic Tranmere
25 Wins 10
14 Draws 10
8 Losses 25
89 Goals For 54
48 Goals Against 78
1.89 Avg Goals Scored 1.2
1.02 Avg Goals Conceded 1.73
30 BTTS Yes 27
37 Over 1.5 37
26 Over 2.5 25
19 Over 3.5 17
14 Clean Sheets 8
6 Failed To Score 12
4.54 Shots On Goal 3.73
11.96 Total Shots 11.93
4.48 Corners 4.2
47.8% Ball Possession 48.6%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From the opening view, this looks like a meeting between teams arriving with different levels of stability, reinforced by Milton Keynes Dons's more proactive style and Tranmere's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Tranmere. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Milton Keynes Dons expected to line up in 3-1-4-2 and Tranmere in 3-4-2-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Tranmere having the stronger overall control. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.This game has the potential to be open, with both sides capable of creating several scoring chances. Tranmere arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly. Milton Keynes Dons arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 2 with 82 points compared to Tranmere in 20 on 40, which underlines the gap in season consistency.

Milton Keynes Dons Analysis

Milton Keynes Dons arrive from the upper part of the table, holding 2 place with 82 points after 44 matches. Their overall return of 23 wins, 13 draws, and 8 losses with goals at 79:43 reflects mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by C. Paterson (14 goals), A. Gilbey (11 goals), Nathaniel Méndez-Laing (8 goals), with creative support from C. Paterson (8 assists), L. Kelly (8 assists), A. Gilbey (4 assists), while defensively they have appeared quite vulnerable. At home, the record of 12 wins, 6 draws, and 4 losses points toward a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.

Tranmere Analysis

Tranmere sit 20 with 40 points after 44 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Their record of 10 wins, 10 draws, and 24 losses, together with goals at 49:72, reflects poor form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through C. Whitaker (9 goals), O. Patrick (8 goals), J. Ironside (5 goals), with creative support from O. Patrick (5 assists), J. Davison (4 assists), C. Jennings (3 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been quite vulnerable. Away from home, the split record of 5 wins, 5 draws, and 11 losses points to a weak split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 14 head-to-head meetings, Milton Keynes Dons won 6 times, Tranmere won 4 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 22:15 from Milton Keynes Dons's perspective. 8 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 8 matches, with an average of 2.64 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (86.2%)
Predicted formations: Milton Keynes Dons 3-1-4-2 / Tranmere 3-4-2-1
H2H summary: Milton Keynes Dons wins 6, draws 4, Tranmere wins 4
Stats
Milton Keynes Dons Milton Keynes Dons
Tranmere Tranmere
Shots on Goal
7
Shots on Goal
1
Shots off Goal
5
Shots off Goal
5
Blocked Shots
6
Blocked Shots
5
6 Corner Kicks 2
8 Fouls 7
1 Offsides 3
53% Ball Possession 47%
18 Total Shots 11
7 Shots on Goal 1
5 Shots off Goal 5
6 Blocked Shots 5
10 Shots insidebox 6
8 Shots outsidebox 5
1 Goalkeeper Saves 3
361 Total passes 321
294 Passes accurate 228
1.29 expected_goals 0.83
🟨 0 Yellow Cards 2 🟨
🟥 0 Red Cards 0 🟥

Lineups

Milton Keynes Dons
Formation
Tranmere
C. MacGillivray
C. MacGillivray
M. Ekpiteta
M. Ekpiteta
C. Nelson
C. Nelson
J. Sanders
J. Sanders
L. Kelly
🎯
L. Kelly
G. Jones
G. Jones
B. Wiles
B. Wiles
A. Gilbey
A. Gilbey
J. Tomlinson
J. Tomlinson
N. Mendez-Laing
🎯
N. Mendez-Laing
C. Paterson
C. Paterson
M. Marosi
M. Marosi
W. Tamen
W. Tamen
N. Smith
N. Smith
S. Negru
S. Negru
J. Joseph
J. Joseph
S. Finley
S. Finley
R. Watson
R. Watson
J. Plant
J. Plant
O. Patrick
O. Patrick
C. Whitaker
C. Whitaker
K. Woolery
K. Woolery
Milton Keynes Dons 3-1-4-2
Starting XI
1
C. MacGillivray
G
21
M. Ekpiteta
D
25
C. Nelson
D
32
J. Sanders
D
6
L. Kelly
🎯 78' ↓ 80'
M
2
G. Jones
↓ 72'
M
26
B. Wiles
↓ 88'
M
8
A. Gilbey
⚽ 21'
M
14
J. Tomlinson
M
11
N. Mendez-Laing
⚽ 18' 🎯 21' ↓ 73'
F
13
C. Paterson
⚽ 78' ↓ 88'
F
Substitutes
27
C. Trueman
G
7
D. Crowley
↑ 80'
M
10
A. Collins
↑ 73'
F
16
A. Nemane
↑ 72'
F
24
C. Lemonheigh-Evans
M
29
R. Hepburn-Murphy
↑ 88'
F
15
L. Offord
↑ 88'
D
Tranmere 3-4-2-1
Starting XI
33
M. Marosi
G
15
W. Tamen
D
5
N. Smith
D
28
S. Negru
D
14
J. Joseph
M
8
S. Finley
↓ 79' 🟨 66'
M
44
R. Watson
M
26
J. Plant
↓ 70'
M
11
O. Patrick
↓ 38'
F
7
C. Whitaker
F
41
K. Woolery
↓ 46'
F
Substitutes
12
J. Barrett
G
29
J. Ironside
↑ 38'
F
9
K. Dennis
↑ 46'
F
42
N. Kenneh
↑ 79'
M
2
C. Norman
D
23
E. Bristow
↑ 70' 🟨 77'
D
Last matches: Milton Keynes Dons
02.05.26
Lea
Milton Keynes Dons
Fleetwood Town
1
1
D
18.04.26
Lea
Milton Keynes Dons
Crewe
3
1
W
11.04.26
Lea
Milton Keynes Dons
Bromley
2
1
W
06.04.26
Lea
Milton Keynes Dons
Oldham
1
1
D
03.04.26
Lea
Milton Keynes Dons
Barrow
0
0
D
28.03.26
Lea
Milton Keynes Dons
Salford City
0
1
L
21.03.26
Lea
Milton Keynes Dons
Barnet
1
3
L
18.03.26
Lea
Milton Keynes Dons
Colchester
1
0
W
14.03.26
Lea
Milton Keynes Dons
Swindon Town
2
1
W
10.03.26
Lea
Milton Keynes Dons
Gillingham
5
1
W
07.03.26
Lea
Milton Keynes Dons
Harrogate Town
4
1
W
28.02.26
Lea
Milton Keynes Dons
Cambridge United
1
1
D
23.02.26
Lea
Milton Keynes Dons
Walsall
2
0
W
17.02.26
Lea
Milton Keynes Dons
Crawley Town
0
0
D
14.02.26
Lea
Milton Keynes Dons
Newport County
1
0
W
07.02.26
Lea
Milton Keynes Dons
Cheltenham
3
2
W
31.01.26
Lea
Milton Keynes Dons
Grimsby
2
2
D
27.01.26
Lea
Milton Keynes Dons
Bristol Rovers
1
0
W
24.01.26
Lea
Milton Keynes Dons
Shrewsbury
5
1
W
17.01.26
Lea
Milton Keynes Dons
Accrington ST
2
0
W
Last matches: Tranmere
02.05.26
Lea
Tranmere
Grimsby
1
1
D
21.04.26
Lea
Tranmere
Cheltenham
3
1
W
18.04.26
Lea
Tranmere
Bristol Rovers
1
2
L
11.04.26
Lea
Tranmere
Chesterfield
1
1
D
06.04.26
Lea
Tranmere
Colchester
0
1
L
03.04.26
Lea
Tranmere
Shrewsbury
0
1
L
21.03.26
Lea
Tranmere
Swindon Town
0
1
L
17.03.26
Lea
Tranmere
Harrogate Town
0
3
L
14.03.26
Lea
Tranmere
Fleetwood Town
0
0
D
07.03.26
Lea
Tranmere
Oldham
1
3
L
03.03.26
Lea
Tranmere
Newport County
1
3
L
28.02.26
Lea
Tranmere
Crewe
1
2
L
21.02.26
Lea
Tranmere
Notts County
0
5
L
17.02.26
Lea
Tranmere
Accrington ST
0
1
L
14.02.26
Lea
Tranmere
Crawley Town
2
0
W
07.02.26
Lea
Tranmere
Gillingham
1
2
L
31.01.26
Lea
Tranmere
Salford City
0
2
L
27.01.26
Lea
Tranmere
Barnet
0
1
L
24.01.26
Lea
Tranmere
Cambridge United
2
4
L
17.01.26
Lea
Tranmere
Walsall
1
3
L
H2H: Milton Keynes Dons vs Tranmere
25.04.26
H2H
Milton Keynes Dons
Tranmere
3
0
W
22.11.25
H2H
Tranmere
Milton Keynes Dons
2
2
D
15.02.25
H2H
Tranmere
Milton Keynes Dons
1
1
D
05.10.24
H2H
Milton Keynes Dons
Tranmere
1
1
D
13.01.24
H2H
Tranmere
Milton Keynes Dons
1
2
W
12.08.23
H2H
Milton Keynes Dons
Tranmere
1
0
W
28.03.20
H2H
Tranmere
Milton Keynes Dons
0
0
D
02.11.19
H2H
Milton Keynes Dons
Tranmere
1
3
L
13.04.19
H2H
Tranmere
Milton Keynes Dons
2
1
L
29.09.18
H2H
Milton Keynes Dons
Tranmere
1
1
D
01.02.14
H2H
Milton Keynes Dons
Tranmere
0
1
L
26.10.13
H2H
Tranmere
Milton Keynes Dons
3
2
L
16.03.13
H2H
Milton Keynes Dons
Tranmere
3
0
W
16.11.12
H2H
Tranmere
Milton Keynes Dons
0
1
W
09.04.12
H2H
Milton Keynes Dons
Tranmere
3
0
W
Last matches: Milton Keynes Dons
11.04.26
Lea
Milton Keynes Dons
Bromley
2
1
W
03.04.26
Lea
Milton Keynes Dons
Barrow
0
0
D
21.03.26
Lea
Milton Keynes Dons
Barnet
1
3
L
18.03.26
Lea
Milton Keynes Dons
Colchester
1
0
W
07.03.26
Lea
Milton Keynes Dons
Harrogate Town
4
1
W
17.02.26
Lea
Milton Keynes Dons
Crawley Town
0
0
D
14.02.26
Lea
Milton Keynes Dons
Newport County
1
0
W
27.01.26
Lea
Milton Keynes Dons
Bristol Rovers
1
0
W
24.01.26
Lea
Milton Keynes Dons
Shrewsbury
5
1
W
09.01.26
FA
Milton Keynes Dons
Oxford United
1
1
D
04.01.26
Lea
Milton Keynes Dons
Chesterfield
2
2
D
29.12.25
Lea
Milton Keynes Dons
Notts County
1
1
D
26.12.25
Lea
Milton Keynes Dons
Swindon Town
1
0
W
13.12.25
Lea
Milton Keynes Dons
Cambridge United
1
1
D
06.12.25
FA
Milton Keynes Dons
Oldham
3
1
W
29.11.25
Lea
Milton Keynes Dons
Fleetwood Town
2
1
W
15.11.25
Lea
Milton Keynes Dons
Salford City
2
0
W
18.10.25
Lea
Milton Keynes Dons
Crewe
3
1
W
04.10.25
Lea
Milton Keynes Dons
Gillingham
3
2
W
20.09.25
Lea
Milton Keynes Dons
Accrington ST
1
2
L
H2H at home: Milton Keynes Dons
25.04.26
H2H
Milton Keynes Dons
Tranmere
3
0
W
05.10.24
H2H
Milton Keynes Dons
Tranmere
1
1
D
12.08.23
H2H
Milton Keynes Dons
Tranmere
1
0
W
02.11.19
H2H
Milton Keynes Dons
Tranmere
1
3
L
29.09.18
H2H
Milton Keynes Dons
Tranmere
1
1
D
01.02.14
H2H
Milton Keynes Dons
Tranmere
0
1
L
16.03.13
H2H
Milton Keynes Dons
Tranmere
3
0
W
09.04.12
H2H
Milton Keynes Dons
Tranmere
3
0
W
Last matches: Tranmere
21.04.26
Lea
Tranmere
Cheltenham
3
1
W
11.04.26
Lea
Tranmere
Chesterfield
1
1
D
03.04.26
Lea
Tranmere
Shrewsbury
0
1
L
14.03.26
Lea
Tranmere
Fleetwood Town
0
0
D
03.03.26
Lea
Tranmere
Newport County
1
3
L
28.02.26
Lea
Tranmere
Crewe
1
2
L
21.02.26
Lea
Tranmere
Notts County
0
5
L
07.02.26
Lea
Tranmere
Gillingham
1
2
L
27.01.26
Lea
Tranmere
Barnet
0
1
L
24.01.26
Lea
Tranmere
Cambridge United
2
4
L
01.01.26
Lea
Tranmere
Harrogate Town
2
0
W
20.12.25
Lea
Tranmere
Oldham
1
3
L
09.12.25
Lea
Tranmere
Barrow
3
0
W
27.11.25
Lea
Tranmere
Grimsby
2
1
W
08.11.25
Lea
Tranmere
Swindon Town
1
2
L
28.10.25
Lea
Tranmere
Accrington ST
1
1
D
18.10.25
Lea
Tranmere
Bristol Rovers
4
1
W
04.10.25
Lea
Tranmere
Bromley
3
3
D
20.09.25
Lea
Tranmere
Walsall
2
4
L
06.09.25
Lea
Tranmere
Salford City
1
3
L
H2H away: Tranmere
25.04.26
H2H
Milton Keynes Dons
Tranmere
3
0
L
05.10.24
H2H
Milton Keynes Dons
Tranmere
1
1
D
12.08.23
H2H
Milton Keynes Dons
Tranmere
1
0
L
02.11.19
H2H
Milton Keynes Dons
Tranmere
1
3
W
29.09.18
H2H
Milton Keynes Dons
Tranmere
1
1
D
01.02.14
H2H
Milton Keynes Dons
Tranmere
0
1
W
16.03.13
H2H
Milton Keynes Dons
Tranmere
3
0
L
09.04.12
H2H
Milton Keynes Dons
Tranmere
3
0
L

Standings

League Two
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 46 24 15 7 71:46 25 87
W L D L W
2 46 24 14 8 86:45 41 86
D W W W D
3 46 22 16 8 66:33 33 82
D W L D W
4 46 25 6 15 61:51 10 81
L D W D W
5 46 24 8 14 74:52 22 80
W D W D W
6 46 21 16 9 71:56 15 79
D L W W D
7 46 22 12 12 74:50 24 78
D L D W W
8 46 21 13 12 70:53 17 76
W W W W W
9 46 22 9 15 70:59 11 75
L L D L W
10 46 18 14 14 60:44 16 68
W L L L L
11 46 19 10 17 64:58 6 67
D L L L W
12 46 18 12 16 62:49 13 66
W L L W W
13 46 18 11 17 56:56 0 65
L L W L L
14 46 19 5 22 56:65 -9 62
D W W W W
15 46 15 16 15 57:58 -1 61
D D D W L
16 46 14 11 21 47:58 -11 53
L D D L L
17 46 13 14 19 53:72 -19 53
W L L L D
18 46 14 10 22 53:79 -26 52
L L L W W
19 46 13 10 23 42:69 -27 49
L D D W L
20 46 12 7 27 48:77 -29 43
W W L W L
21 46 10 11 25 54:79 -25 41
D L W L D
22 46 8 16 22 44:68 -24 40
D D D L L
23 46 10 9 27 39:68 -29 39
L W W L L
24 46 9 9 28 45:78 -33 36
L L L W L
Promotion
Promotion Playoffs
Relegation