ENGLAND CHAMPIONSHIP
--.--.---- --:--
The Den
Referee: T. Nield
Millwall
Match Timeline
QPR
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
3'
D. Mazou-Sacko
Millwall
17'
C. Neghli · Assist: D. Mazou-Sacko
Millwall
🟨
19'
Ronnie Edwards
QPR
🟨
30'
Amadou Salif Mbengue
QPR
🟨
34'
Femi Azeez
Millwall
🔄
46'
A. S. Mbengue ↔ S. Cook
QPR
🔄
46'
K. Morgan ↔ I. Hayden
QPR
🔄
46'
J. Varane ↔ N. Madsen
QPR
🔄
46'
P. Smyth ↔ R. Burrell
QPR
🔄
60'
K. Poku ↔ I. Chair
QPR
🔄
70'
C. De Norre ↔ M. Langstaff
Millwall
🔄
70'
T. Ballo ↔ T. Watson
Millwall
🔄
86'
F. Azeez ↔ L. Cundle
Millwall
🔄
86'
J. Coburn ↔ M. Ivanovic
Millwall
🟨
90+2'
Isaac Hayden
QPR
🔄
90'
D. Mazou-Sacko ↔ B. Bannan
Millwall

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 54.9%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 85.4%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 71%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
54.9%
-
BTTS BTTS Yes
85.4%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
71%
-
Probability Distribution
Millwall Win 54.9%
Draw 18.4%
QPR Win 26.7%
Expected Goals (xG)
Millwall1.4
QPR1.31
Recent Form (Last 5)
Millwall Millwall
WWDLW
57 GF / 52 GA
QPR QPR
WLDWL
59 GF / 65 GA
Key Stats
1.33
Average Goals Scored
1.37
1.21
Average Goals Conceded
1.51
22
BTTS Yes
28
22
Over 2.5
27
4.16
Shots on Goal
3.93

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Millwall Millwall 43 matches
QPR QPR 43 matches
Millwall Statistic QPR
21 Wins 16
10 Draws 10
12 Losses 17
57 Goals For 59
52 Goals Against 65
1.33 Avg Goals Scored 1.37
1.21 Avg Goals Conceded 1.51
22 BTTS Yes 28
34 Over 1.5 32
22 Over 2.5 27
10 Over 3.5 16
16 Clean Sheets 10
8 Failed To Score 11
4.16 Shots On Goal 3.93
12.56 Total Shots 12.58
5.42 Corners 4.63
45.9% Ball Possession 45.1%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by Millwall's more proactive style and QPR's more cautious structure. Both teams have notable availability concerns, so squad depth and in-game adjustments could matter more than usual. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.This game has the potential to be open, with both sides capable of creating several scoring chances. Millwall arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 3 with 73 points compared to QPR in 11 on 58, which underlines the gap in season consistency. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring QPR. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Millwall expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and QPR in 4-4-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward QPR having the stronger overall control.

Millwall Analysis

Millwall arrive from the upper part of the table, holding 3 place with 73 points after 42 matches. The record of 21 wins, 10 draws, and 11 defeats, together with a 56:47 goal balance, points toward poor form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through M. Ivanovic (9 goals), F. Azeez (8 goals), Josh Coburn (8 goals), with creative support from F. Azeez (7 assists), T. Crama (6 assists), A. Doughty (5 assists), while at the back they have looked quite vulnerable. At home, their split return of 11 wins, 3 draws, and 7 losses fits a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football. They are not at full strength, with L. Jensen, D. Kelly, M. Luongo unavailable, although the overall attacking core still looks largely intact.

QPR Analysis

QPR sit 11 with 58 points after 42 league matches. Their overall return of 16 wins, 10 draws, and 16 losses with goals at 58:63 reflects good form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by R. Burrell (10 goals), R. Kone (9 goals), P. Smyth (6 goals), with creative support from N. Madsen (6 assists), B. Whiteman (5 assists), H. Vale (4 assists), while defensively they have appeared quite vulnerable. Away from home, the record of 6 wins, 7 draws, and 8 losses points toward a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach. They are not at full strength, with I. Chair, K. Dembele, Z. Larkeche unavailable, although the overall attacking core still looks largely intact.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Millwall won 6 times, QPR won 5 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 21:19 from Millwall's perspective. 6 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 9 matches, with an average of 2.67 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (81.6%)
Predicted formations: Millwall 4-2-3-1 / QPR 4-4-2
Missing players: Millwall 5, QPR 5
H2H summary: Millwall wins 6, draws 4, QPR wins 5
Stats
Millwall Millwall
QPR QPR
Shots on Goal
4
Shots on Goal
1
Shots off Goal
5
Shots off Goal
4
Blocked Shots
2
Blocked Shots
0
6 Corner Kicks 10
6 Fouls 14
4 Offsides 1
43% Ball Possession 57%
11 Total Shots 5
4 Shots on Goal 1
5 Shots off Goal 4
2 Blocked Shots 0
8 Shots insidebox 2
3 Shots outsidebox 3
1 Goalkeeper Saves 2
302 Total passes 416
210 Passes accurate 315
1.53 expected_goals 0.14
🟨 1 Yellow Cards 3 🟨
🟥 0 Red Cards 0 🟥

Lineups

Millwall
Formation
QPR
A. Patterson
A. Patterson
T. Crama
T. Crama
C. Taylor
C. Taylor
J. Cooper
J. Cooper
Z. Sturge
Z. Sturge
D. Mazou-Sacko
🎯
D. Mazou-Sacko
C. De Norre
C. De Norre
F. Azeez
F. Azeez
C. Neghli
C. Neghli
T. Ballo
T. Ballo
J. Coburn
J. Coburn
J. Walsh
J. Walsh
A. S. Mbengue
A. S. Mbengue
R. Edwards
R. Edwards
J. Clarke-Salter
J. Clarke-Salter
R. Norrington-Davies
R. Norrington-Davies
K. Morgan
K. Morgan
J. Varane
J. Varane
K. Poku
K. Poku
H. Vale
H. Vale
P. Smyth
P. Smyth
R. Kone
R. Kone
Millwall 4-2-3-1
Starting XI
13
A. Patterson
G
4
T. Crama
D
6
C. Taylor
D
5
J. Cooper
D
3
Z. Sturge
D
49
D. Mazou-Sacko
⚽ 3' 🎯 17' ↓ 90'
M
24
C. De Norre
↓ 70'
M
11
F. Azeez
↓ 86' 🟨 34'
M
10
C. Neghli
⚽ 17'
M
7
T. Ballo
↓ 70'
M
19
J. Coburn
↓ 86'
F
Substitutes
15
M. Crocombe
G
67
B. Bannan
↑ 90'
M
18
R. Leonard
M
2
D. McNamara
D
25
L. Cundle
↑ 86'
M
29
Z. Lovelace
F
9
M. Ivanovic
↑ 86'
F
17
M. Langstaff
↑ 70'
F
22
T. Watson
↑ 70'
F
QPR 4-2-3-1
Starting XI
13
J. Walsh
G
27
A. S. Mbengue
↓ 46' 🟨 30'
D
37
R. Edwards
🟨 19'
D
6
J. Clarke-Salter
D
18
R. Norrington-Davies
D
21
K. Morgan
↓ 46'
M
40
J. Varane
↓ 46'
M
17
K. Poku
↓ 60'
M
20
H. Vale
M
11
P. Smyth
↓ 46'
M
22
R. Kone
F
Substitutes
29
B. Hamer
G
10
I. Chair
↑ 60'
M
23
D. Bennie
F
2
K. Adamson
D
26
R. Kolli
F
5
S. Cook
↑ 46'
D
15
I. Hayden
↑ 46' 🟨 90+2'
M
24
N. Madsen
↑ 46'
M
16
R. Burrell
↑ 46'
F
Last matches: Millwall
21.07.26
Fri
Millwall
Gillingham
0
1
L
17.07.26
Fri
Millwall
Eldense
2
1
W
14.07.26
Fri
Millwall
FC Andorra
1
2
L
11.05.26
Cha
Millwall
Hull City
0
2
L
08.05.26
Cha
Millwall
Hull City
0
0
D
02.05.26
Cha
Millwall
Oxford United
2
0
W
24.04.26
Cha
Millwall
Leicester
1
1
D
21.04.26
Cha
Millwall
Stoke City
3
1
W
10.04.26
Cha
Millwall
West Brom
0
0
D
06.04.26
Cha
Millwall
Norwich
1
2
L
03.04.26
Cha
Millwall
Middlesbrough
2
1
W
21.03.26
Cha
Millwall
Ipswich
1
1
D
14.03.26
Cha
Millwall
Blackburn
1
2
L
10.03.26
Cha
Millwall
Derby
1
0
W
07.03.26
Cha
Millwall
Hull City
3
1
W
28.02.26
Cha
Millwall
Preston
2
0
W
25.02.26
Cha
Millwall
Birmingham
3
0
W
21.02.26
Cha
Millwall
Portsmouth
1
3
L
14.02.26
Cha
Millwall
Sheffield Wednesday
2
1
W
07.02.26
Cha
Millwall
Wrexham
2
0
W
Last matches: QPR
21.07.26
Fri
QPR
Wycombe
1
0
W
16.07.26
Fri
QPR
SC Wiener Neustadt
3
1
W
11.07.26
Fri
QPR
First Vienna
0
0
D
02.05.26
Cha
QPR
Ipswich
0
3
L
25.04.26
Cha
QPR
Derby
2
3
L
21.04.26
Cha
QPR
Swansea
1
2
L
11.04.26
Cha
QPR
Bristol City
0
0
D
06.04.26
Cha
QPR
Preston
1
1
D
03.04.26
Cha
QPR
Watford
2
1
W
21.03.26
Cha
QPR
Portsmouth
6
1
W
14.03.26
Cha
QPR
Leicester
3
1
W
11.03.26
Cha
QPR
Birmingham
0
1
L
08.03.26
Cha
QPR
Middlesbrough
0
4
L
28.02.26
Cha
QPR
Sheffield Utd
0
2
L
24.02.26
Cha
QPR
Southampton
0
5
L
21.02.26
Cha
QPR
Hull City
3
1
W
14.02.26
Cha
QPR
Blackburn
1
3
L
06.02.26
Cha
QPR
Charlton
0
0
D
31.01.26
Cha
QPR
Coventry
2
1
W
24.01.26
Cha
QPR
Wrexham
2
3
L
H2H: Millwall vs QPR
18.04.26
H2H
Millwall
QPR
2
0
W
18.10.25
H2H
QPR
Millwall
1
2
W
01.02.25
H2H
Millwall
QPR
2
1
W
21.09.24
H2H
QPR
Millwall
1
1
D
20.01.24
H2H
QPR
Millwall
2
0
L
26.12.23
H2H
Millwall
QPR
2
0
W
11.02.23
H2H
QPR
Millwall
1
2
W
14.09.22
H2H
Millwall
QPR
0
2
L
15.02.22
H2H
Millwall
QPR
2
0
W
07.08.21
H2H
QPR
Millwall
1
1
D
17.03.21
H2H
QPR
Millwall
3
2
L
08.12.20
H2H
Millwall
QPR
1
1
D
18.07.20
H2H
QPR
Millwall
4
3
L
21.09.19
H2H
Millwall
QPR
1
2
L
10.04.19
H2H
Millwall
QPR
0
0
D
Last matches: Millwall
11.05.26
Cha
Millwall
Hull City
0
2
L
02.05.26
Cha
Millwall
Oxford United
2
0
W
06.04.26
Cha
Millwall
Norwich
1
2
L
14.03.26
Cha
Millwall
Blackburn
1
2
L
10.03.26
Cha
Millwall
Derby
1
0
W
25.02.26
Cha
Millwall
Birmingham
3
0
W
21.02.26
Cha
Millwall
Portsmouth
1
3
L
31.01.26
Cha
Millwall
Sheffield Utd
1
1
D
24.01.26
Cha
Millwall
Charlton
4
0
W
04.01.26
Cha
Millwall
Swansea
2
1
W
29.12.25
Cha
Millwall
Bristol City
2
1
W
26.12.25
Cha
Millwall
Ipswich
0
0
D
13.12.25
Cha
Millwall
Hull City
1
3
L
29.11.25
Cha
Millwall
Southampton
3
2
W
26.11.25
Cha
Millwall
Sheffield Wednesday
1
0
W
08.11.25
Cha
Millwall
Preston
1
1
D
25.10.25
Cha
Millwall
Leicester
1
0
W
21.10.25
Cha
Millwall
Stoke City
2
0
W
04.10.25
Cha
Millwall
West Brom
3
0
W
01.10.25
Cha
Millwall
Coventry
0
4
L
H2H at home: Millwall
18.04.26
H2H
Millwall
QPR
2
0
W
01.02.25
H2H
Millwall
QPR
2
1
W
26.12.23
H2H
Millwall
QPR
2
0
W
14.09.22
H2H
Millwall
QPR
0
2
L
15.02.22
H2H
Millwall
QPR
2
0
W
08.12.20
H2H
Millwall
QPR
1
1
D
21.09.19
H2H
Millwall
QPR
1
2
L
10.04.19
H2H
Millwall
QPR
0
0
D
Last matches: QPR
16.07.26
Fri
QPR
SC Wiener Neustadt
3
1
W
11.07.26
Fri
QPR
First Vienna
0
0
D
02.05.26
Cha
QPR
Ipswich
0
3
L
06.04.26
Cha
QPR
Preston
1
1
D
14.03.26
Cha
QPR
Leicester
3
1
W
11.03.26
Cha
QPR
Birmingham
0
1
L
24.02.26
Cha
QPR
Southampton
0
5
L
21.02.26
Cha
QPR
Hull City
3
1
W
06.02.26
Cha
QPR
Charlton
0
0
D
20.01.26
Cha
QPR
Oxford United
0
0
D
17.01.26
Cha
QPR
Stoke City
0
0
D
11.01.26
FA
QPR
West Ham
1
2
L
29.12.25
Cha
QPR
West Brom
1
2
L
26.12.25
Cha
QPR
Portsmouth
1
1
D
13.12.25
Cha
QPR
Middlesbrough
1
3
L
29.11.25
Cha
QPR
Norwich
1
3
L
26.11.25
Cha
QPR
Blackburn
1
0
W
08.11.25
Cha
QPR
Sheffield Utd
0
0
D
25.10.25
Cha
QPR
Derby
0
1
L
22.10.25
Cha
QPR
Swansea
1
0
W
H2H away: QPR
18.04.26
H2H
Millwall
QPR
2
0
L
01.02.25
H2H
Millwall
QPR
2
1
L
26.12.23
H2H
Millwall
QPR
2
0
L
14.09.22
H2H
Millwall
QPR
0
2
W
15.02.22
H2H
Millwall
QPR
2
0
L
08.12.20
H2H
Millwall
QPR
1
1
D
21.09.19
H2H
Millwall
QPR
1
2
W
10.04.19
H2H
Millwall
QPR
0
0
D

Standings

Championship
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 46 28 11 7 97:45 52 95
W W W D D
2 46 23 15 8 80:47 33 84
W D D W D
3 46 24 11 11 64:49 15 83
L D W D W
4 46 22 14 10 82:56 26 80
W D W D D
5 46 22 14 10 72:47 25 80
L L D D W
6 46 21 10 15 70:66 4 73
W W D W L
7 46 19 14 13 69:65 4 71
D L W W L
8 46 20 9 17 67:59 8 69
L W L W L
9 46 19 8 19 63:56 7 65
L D W W L
10 46 17 13 16 57:56 1 64
D W W D W
11 46 18 10 18 57:59 -2 64
W D W L W
12 46 17 11 18 59:59 0 62
W L D L D
13 46 18 6 22 66:66 0 60
W L L W W
14 46 15 15 16 55:62 -7 60
L W L L W
15
QPR Away
46 16 10 20 61:73 -12 58
L L L L D
16 46 14 15 17 53:65 -12 57
L L L L L
17 46 15 10 21 51:56 -5 55
L L L L D
18 46 14 13 19 49:64 -15 55
D W L W W
19 46 13 14 19 44:58 -14 53
L W L D L
20 46 13 13 20 42:56 -14 52
L W D L D
21 46 13 14 19 48:58 -10 51
L D W W D
22 46 11 14 21 45:59 -14 47
L W L L W
23 46 12 16 18 58:68 -10 46
W D D L L
24 46 2 12 32 29:89 -60 0
W L L D D
Promotion
Promotion Playoffs
Relegation

Missing Players

Millwall 5 missing
-
L. Jensen
Missing Fixture Muscle Injury
OUT
-
D. Kelly
Missing Fixture Hamstring Injury
OUT
-
M. Luongo
Missing Fixture Knee Injury
OUT
-
A. Doughty
Questionable Calf Injury
OUT
-
W. Smallbone
Questionable Inactive
OUT
QPR 5 missing
-
I. Chair
Missing Fixture Muscle Injury
OUT
-
K. Dembele
Missing Fixture Knee Injury
OUT
-
Z. Larkeche
Missing Fixture Knee Injury
OUT
-
N. Madsen
Missing Fixture Hamstring Injury
OUT
-
J. Obikwu
Questionable Knock
OUT