AUSTRALIA VICTORIA NPL 2
19.09.2026 10:00
Melbourne Victory II
Match Timeline
Northcote City
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
1'
O. Dragicevic
Melbourne Victory II
27'
N. Morton
Northcote City
120+1'
Northcote City
Northcote City
120+1'
Melbourne Victory II
Melbourne Victory II
120+2'
Northcote City
Northcote City
120+2'
Melbourne Victory II
Melbourne Victory II
120+3'
Northcote City
Northcote City
120+3'
Melbourne Victory II
Melbourne Victory II
120+4'
Northcote City
Northcote City
120+4'
Melbourne Victory II
Melbourne Victory II
120+5'
Northcote City
Northcote City
120+5'
Melbourne Victory II
Melbourne Victory II

Melbourne Victory II vs Northcote City Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 49.5%
Odds 2.58
BTTS
Yes
Probability 58.2%
Odds 8.00
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 64.5%
Odds 1.58
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
49.5%
2.58
BTTS Yes
58.2%
8.00
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
64.5%
1.58
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
3.75
Correct Score 2-1
-
11.00
Probability Distribution
Melbourne Victory II Win 49.5%
Draw 11.1%
Northcote City Win 39.4%
Expected Goals (xG)
Melbourne Victory II1.82
Northcote City1.58
Recent Form (Last 5)
Melbourne Victory II Melbourne Victory II
WWDLW
61 GF / 36 GA
Northcote City Northcote City
WLDWL
47 GF / 31 GA
Key Stats
2.26
Average Goals Scored
1.74
1.33
Average Goals Conceded
1.15
17
BTTS Yes
16
21
Over 2.5
16
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Melbourne Victory II Melbourne Victory II 27 matches
Northcote City Northcote City 27 matches
Melbourne Victory II Statistic Northcote City
15 Wins 16
4 Draws 4
8 Losses 7
61 Goals For 47
36 Goals Against 31
2.26 Avg Goals Scored 1.74
1.33 Avg Goals Conceded 1.15
17 BTTS Yes 16
23 Over 1.5 20
21 Over 2.5 16
14 Over 3.5 9
8 Clean Sheets 8
2 Failed To Score 4
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

In knockout conditions, this fixture pairs two sides with a fairly similar football identity, which should make the margins especially important. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Northcote City have the edge after taking the first leg 1-0, leaving Melbourne Victory II needing to respond to a 1-goal deficit. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Northcote City. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.This game has the potential to be open, with both sides capable of creating several scoring chances. Melbourne Victory II come in with stronger recent momentum, which could help them control the rhythm for longer periods. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Northcote City having the stronger overall control. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns.

Melbourne Victory II Analysis

Melbourne Victory II enter this tie with a season profile built on 46 points from 26 matches, placing them 5 in their league. Their record of 14 wins, 4 draws, and 8 defeats with goals at 59:36 reflects very strong form and are on a winning streak. Much of their attacking weight falls on their main attacking players, while defensively they have appeared fairly stable. At home, their split of 9 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses fits a very strong split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically they continue to show balanced attacking football.

Northcote City Analysis

Northcote City come into this tie placed 3 in their league with 49 points from 26 matches. With 15 wins, 4 draws, and 7 losses plus a goal ratio of 44:29, they bring good form over their recent run into this tie. Going forward they rely on their main attacking players, while defensively they have been fairly stable. Away from home, they have managed 8 wins, 1 draws, and 4 losses, which supports a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In tactical terms they still look like a side built around balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 4 head-to-head meetings, Melbourne Victory II won 1 times, Northcote City won 3 times, while 0 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 4:5 from Melbourne Victory II's perspective. 2 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 2 matches, with an average of 2.25 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (88.9%)
H2H summary: Melbourne Victory II wins 1, draws 0, Northcote City wins 3

Standings

Victoria NPL 2
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 26 17 2 7 50:32 18 53
W W D D W
2 26 16 4 6 49:24 25 52
D L D W W
3 26 15 4 7 44:29 15 49
W W L L W
4 26 14 6 6 50:32 18 48
L W W W W
5 26 14 4 8 59:36 23 46
L W W W L
6 26 11 6 9 58:41 17 39
L D W W L
7 26 12 3 11 30:26 4 39
W L D W L
8 26 10 3 13 49:51 -2 33
L L W W W
9 26 10 2 14 37:52 -15 32
D L L L L
10 26 8 6 12 46:54 -8 30
D W L L L
11 26 9 3 14 38:58 -20 30
L L L L L
12 26 7 5 14 35:40 -5 26
W L D L D
13 26 8 1 17 46:72 -26 25
L L L L W
14 26 4 5 17 14:58 -44 17
L L D W L