AUSTRALIA VICTORIA NPL 2
11.09.2026 09:30

Melbourne Victory II vs Eltham Redbacks FC Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 57.8%
Odds -
BTTS
No
Probability 51.6%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 58.6%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
57.8%
-
BTTS No
51.6%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
58.6%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 3-0
-
-
Probability Distribution
Melbourne Victory II Win 57.8%
Draw 7.1%
Eltham Redbacks FC Win 35.1%
Expected Goals (xG)
Melbourne Victory II1.99
Eltham Redbacks FC1.89
Recent Form (Last 5)
Melbourne Victory II Melbourne Victory II
WWDLW
59 GF / 36 GA
Eltham Redbacks FC Eltham Redbacks FC
WLDWL
58 GF / 41 GA
Key Stats
2.27
Average Goals Scored
2.23
1.38
Average Goals Conceded
1.58
17
BTTS Yes
18
21
Over 2.5
19
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Melbourne Victory II Melbourne Victory II 26 matches
Eltham Redbacks FC Eltham Redbacks FC 26 matches
Melbourne Victory II Statistic Eltham Redbacks FC
14 Wins 11
4 Draws 6
8 Losses 9
59 Goals For 58
36 Goals Against 41
2.27 Avg Goals Scored 2.23
1.38 Avg Goals Conceded 1.58
17 BTTS Yes 18
22 Over 1.5 25
21 Over 2.5 19
14 Over 3.5 14
7 Clean Sheets 5
2 Failed To Score 3
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This tie brings together two sides with a fairly similar football identity, with the knockout context adding extra pressure to every phase of the game. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The first leg ended level at 3-3, so the tie remains finely balanced going into this match. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Eltham Redbacks FC. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. Melbourne Victory II come in with stronger recent momentum, which could help them control the rhythm for longer periods. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Eltham Redbacks FC having the stronger overall control. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.This game has the potential to be open, with both sides capable of creating several scoring chances.

Melbourne Victory II Analysis

Melbourne Victory II enter this tie with a season profile built on 46 points from 26 matches, placing them 5 in their league. With 14 wins, 4 draws, and 8 losses plus a goal ratio of 59:36, they bring very strong form with results showing strong momentum into this tie. Going forward they rely on their main attacking players, while defensively they have been fairly stable. At home, the return of 9 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses suggests a very strong split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader football identity still points toward balanced attacking football.

Eltham Redbacks FC Analysis

Ahead of this knockout test, Eltham Redbacks FC arrive from a league campaign that has them 6 with 39 points after 26 matches. Their record of 11 wins, 6 draws, and 9 defeats with goals at 58:41 reflects mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking weight falls on their main attacking players, while defensively they have appeared quite vulnerable. Away from home, their split of 5 wins, 1 draws, and 7 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically they continue to show balanced attacking football.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: No
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (92.9%)

Standings

Victoria NPL 2
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 26 17 2 7 50:32 18 53
W W D D W
2 26 16 4 6 49:24 25 52
D L D W W
3 26 15 4 7 44:29 15 49
L L W W W
4 26 14 6 6 50:32 18 48
W W W W W
5 26 14 4 8 59:36 23 46
W W L W W
6 26 11 6 9 58:41 17 39
D W W L L
7 26 12 3 11 30:26 4 39
W L D W L
8 26 10 3 13 49:51 -2 33
L L W W W
9 26 10 2 14 37:52 -15 32
D L L L L
10 26 8 6 12 46:54 -8 30
D W L L L
11 26 9 3 14 38:58 -20 30
L L L L L
12 26 7 5 14 35:40 -5 26
W L D L D
13 26 8 1 17 46:72 -26 25
L L L L W
14 26 4 5 17 14:58 -44 17
L L D W L