UGANDA PREMIER LEAGUE
--.--.---- --:--
Rwamwanja stadium
Mbarara City
Match Timeline
Maroons
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
11'
C. Kamugisha
Mbarara City
43'
C. Kamugisha
Mbarara City
54'
K. Ramathan
Maroons
78'
D. Nuwamanya
Maroons

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 57.5%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 61%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 72.2%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
57.5%
-
BTTS BTTS No
61%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
72.2%
-
Probability Distribution
Mbarara City Win 18.4%
Draw 24.1%
Maroons Win 57.5%
Expected Goals (xG)
Mbarara City0.72
Maroons1.1
Recent Form (Last 5)
Mbarara City Mbarara City
WWDLW
17 GF / 36 GA
Maroons Maroons
WLDWL
18 GF / 16 GA
Key Stats
0.74
Average Goals Scored
0.78
1.57
Average Goals Conceded
0.7
13
BTTS Yes
6
8
Over 2.5
5
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Mbarara City Mbarara City 23 matches
Maroons Maroons 23 matches
Mbarara City Statistic Maroons
3 Wins 7
7 Draws 8
13 Losses 8
17 Goals For 18
36 Goals Against 16
0.74 Avg Goals Scored 0.78
1.57 Avg Goals Conceded 0.7
13 BTTS Yes 6
15 Over 1.5 10
8 Over 2.5 5
4 Over 3.5 1
4 Clean Sheets 11
8 Failed To Score 11
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From the opening view, this looks like a meeting between teams arriving with different levels of stability, reinforced by Maroons's more proactive style and Mbarara City's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Maroons having the stronger overall control. Mbarara City have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. Maroons carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 9 with 29 points while Mbarara City sit 14 on 16, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. Given the broader gap between the sides, Away Win looks like the most logical direction, while the clean-sheet expectation leans toward Maroons. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

Mbarara City Analysis

Mbarara City approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 14 with 16 points from 23 matches. The overall return of 3 wins, 7 draws, and 13 defeats with a 16:34 goal balance points toward poor form with results showing a clear downward trend. Going forward they depend heavily on M. Kanyike (5 goals), C. Kamugisha (2 goals), H. Kitegenyi (2 goals), while defensively they have looked fairly stable. At home, the split record of 2 wins, 3 draws, and 5 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

Maroons Analysis

So far, Maroons have built a campaign that leaves them 9 in the table on 29 points from 23 matches. The record of 7 wins, 8 draws, and 8 defeats, together with a 18:15 goal balance, points toward good form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through I. Asaba (4 goals), I. Mayanja (3 goals), R. Walugembe (3 goals), while at the back they have looked very solid. Away from home, their split return of 2 wins, 2 draws, and 6 losses fits a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 11 head-to-head meetings, Mbarara City won 2 times, Maroons won 5 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 9:13 from Mbarara City's perspective. 4 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 4 matches, with an average of 2 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: X2 (81.6%)
H2H summary: Mbarara City wins 2, draws 4, Maroons wins 5
Last matches: Mbarara City
23.05.26
Pre
Mbarara City
KCCA
1
4
L
19.05.26
Pre
Mbarara City
Buhimba Saints
2
0
W
13.05.26
Pre
Mbarara City
SC Villa
1
3
L
06.05.26
Pre
Mbarara City
Lugazi
1
0
W
28.04.26
Pre
Mbarara City
Express
2
1
W
24.04.26
Pre
Mbarara City
NEC
0
0
D
16.04.26
Pre
Mbarara City
Police
1
2
L
09.04.26
Pre
Mbarara City
UPDF
1
3
L
13.03.26
Pre
Mbarara City
BUL
0
0
D
10.03.26
Pre
Mbarara City
Kitara
0
1
L
07.03.26
Pre
Mbarara City
Vipers
1
2
L
04.03.26
Pre
Mbarara City
URA
0
2
L
17.02.26
Pre
Mbarara City
Entebbe UPPC
0
1
L
12.02.26
Pre
Mbarara City
Calvary
1
0
W
31.01.26
Pre
Mbarara City
Maroons
1
1
D
28.01.26
Pre
Mbarara City
SC Villa
1
6
L
24.01.26
Pre
Mbarara City
Lugazi
0
0
D
06.01.26
Pre
Mbarara City
Vipers
0
2
L
17.12.25
Pre
Mbarara City
URA
1
0
W
13.12.25
Pre
Mbarara City
Calvary
1
1
D
Last matches: Maroons
23.05.26
Pre
Maroons
Lugazi
1
0
W
19.05.26
Pre
Maroons
Vipers
0
3
L
12.05.26
Pre
Maroons
Entebbe UPPC
0
0
D
07.05.26
Pre
Maroons
KCCA
0
3
L
28.04.26
Pre
Maroons
URA
2
2
D
25.04.26
Pre
Maroons
Police
3
1
W
18.04.26
Pre
Maroons
NEC
0
1
L
08.04.26
Pre
Maroons
BUL
1
0
W
14.03.26
Pre
Maroons
UPDF
0
0
D
10.03.26
Pre
Maroons
Calvary
1
0
W
07.03.26
Pre
Maroons
Buhimba Saints
1
0
W
04.03.26
Pre
Maroons
Express
1
1
D
19.02.26
Pre
Maroons
SC Villa
0
2
L
12.02.26
Pre
Maroons
Kitara
0
1
L
31.01.26
Pre
Maroons
Mbarara City
1
1
D
27.01.26
Pre
Maroons
Entebbe UPPC
0
0
D
21.01.26
Pre
Maroons
KCCA
0
0
D
06.01.26
Pre
Maroons
Buhimba Saints
0
1
L
17.12.25
Pre
Maroons
Express
4
0
W
12.12.25
Pre
Maroons
Kitara
0
2
L
H2H: Mbarara City vs Maroons
21.04.26
H2H
Mbarara City
Maroons
2
2
D
31.01.26
H2H
Maroons
Mbarara City
1
1
D
24.05.25
H2H
Maroons
Mbarara City
2
0
L
05.12.24
H2H
Mbarara City
Maroons
0
3
L
05.04.24
H2H
Mbarara City
Maroons
0
0
D
02.12.23
H2H
Maroons
Mbarara City
1
0
L
23.05.20
H2H
Maroons
Mbarara City
0
0
D
09.10.19
H2H
Mbarara City
Maroons
1
2
L
05.02.19
H2H
Maroons
Mbarara City
0
2
W
20.10.18
H2H
Mbarara City
Maroons
2
0
W
08.03.18
H2H
Mbarara City
Maroons
1
2
L
21.11.17
H2H
Maroons
Mbarara City
0
0
D
Last matches: Mbarara City
19.05.26
Pre
Mbarara City
Buhimba Saints
2
0
W
13.05.26
Pre
Mbarara City
SC Villa
1
3
L
28.04.26
Pre
Mbarara City
Express
2
1
W
16.04.26
Pre
Mbarara City
Police
1
2
L
10.03.26
Pre
Mbarara City
Kitara
0
1
L
07.03.26
Pre
Mbarara City
Vipers
1
2
L
12.02.26
Pre
Mbarara City
Calvary
1
0
W
24.01.26
Pre
Mbarara City
Lugazi
0
0
D
17.12.25
Pre
Mbarara City
URA
1
0
W
03.12.25
Pre
Mbarara City
Entebbe UPPC
1
1
D
28.11.25
Pre
Mbarara City
KCCA
1
2
L
01.11.25
Pre
Mbarara City
NEC
0
1
L
17.10.25
Pre
Mbarara City
BUL
1
1
D
03.10.25
Pre
Mbarara City
UPDF
0
1
L
H2H at home: Mbarara City
21.04.26
H2H
Mbarara City
Maroons
2
2
D
05.12.24
H2H
Mbarara City
Maroons
0
3
L
05.04.24
H2H
Mbarara City
Maroons
0
0
D
09.10.19
H2H
Mbarara City
Maroons
1
2
L
20.10.18
H2H
Mbarara City
Maroons
2
0
W
08.03.18
H2H
Mbarara City
Maroons
1
2
L
Last matches: Maroons
23.05.26
Pre
Maroons
Lugazi
1
0
W
07.05.26
Pre
Maroons
KCCA
0
3
L
28.04.26
Pre
Maroons
URA
2
2
D
18.04.26
Pre
Maroons
NEC
0
1
L
10.03.26
Pre
Maroons
Calvary
1
0
W
04.03.26
Pre
Maroons
Express
1
1
D
19.02.26
Pre
Maroons
SC Villa
0
2
L
27.01.26
Pre
Maroons
Entebbe UPPC
0
0
D
06.01.26
Pre
Maroons
Buhimba Saints
0
1
L
12.12.25
Pre
Maroons
Kitara
0
2
L
22.11.25
Pre
Maroons
Vipers
1
2
L
29.10.25
Pre
Maroons
Police
1
2
L
15.10.25
Pre
Maroons
UPDF
2
1
W
01.10.25
Pre
Maroons
BUL
0
1
L
H2H away: Maroons
21.04.26
H2H
Mbarara City
Maroons
2
2
D
05.12.24
H2H
Mbarara City
Maroons
0
3
W
05.04.24
H2H
Mbarara City
Maroons
0
0
D
09.10.19
H2H
Mbarara City
Maroons
1
2
W
20.10.18
H2H
Mbarara City
Maroons
2
0
L
08.03.18
H2H
Mbarara City
Maroons
1
2
W

Standings

Premier League
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 30 19 10 1 55:17 38 67
W W D D D
2 30 19 5 6 46:22 24 62
W D W W D
3 30 18 7 5 47:17 30 61
W W W D L
4 30 16 8 6 43:22 21 56
D D L L W
5 30 14 9 7 30:20 10 51
W D D W W
6 30 13 12 5 31:22 9 51
L L W W W
7 30 13 8 9 42:35 7 47
D D D L W
8 30 9 11 10 26:27 -1 38
W L D L D
9 30 9 10 11 30:33 -3 37
L D D D L
10 30 9 10 11 28:31 -3 37
L D W W L
11 30 5 16 9 27:30 -3 31
W D D D D
12 30 6 9 15 26:46 -20 27
L W L W W
13 30 5 10 15 19:36 -17 25
L D D L W
14 30 5 7 18 24:41 -17 22
L D L L L
15 30 4 9 17 14:39 -25 21
W D D W L
16 30 4 3 23 16:66 -50 15
L L L L L
Promotion - CAF Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - CAF Confederation Cup (Qualification)
Relegation - Big League