UGANDA PREMIER LEAGUE
--.--.---- --:--
Rwamwanja stadium
Mbarara City
Match Timeline
Buhimba Saints
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
34'
C. Kamugisha
Mbarara City
69'
R. Edwok
Mbarara City

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 100%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 32.6%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 25.9%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
100%
-
BTTS BTTS No
32.6%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
25.9%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-0
-
-
Probability Distribution
Mbarara City Win 100%
Draw 0%
Buhimba Saints Win 0%
Expected Goals (xG)
Mbarara City1.35
Buhimba Saints0.95
Recent Form (Last 5)
Mbarara City Mbarara City
WWDLW
23 GF / 42 GA
Buhimba Saints Buhimba Saints
WLDWL
16 GF / 58 GA
Key Stats
0.82
Average Goals Scored
0.59
1.5
Average Goals Conceded
2.15
16
BTTS Yes
7
11
Over 2.5
12
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Mbarara City Mbarara City 28 matches
Buhimba Saints Buhimba Saints 27 matches
Mbarara City Statistic Buhimba Saints
5 Wins 4
9 Draws 3
14 Losses 20
23 Goals For 16
42 Goals Against 58
0.82 Avg Goals Scored 0.59
1.5 Avg Goals Conceded 2.15
16 BTTS Yes 7
18 Over 1.5 19
11 Over 2.5 12
6 Over 3.5 8
6 Clean Sheets 5
9 Failed To Score 16
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From a tactical perspective, this fixture features two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Buhimba Saints. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Buhimba Saints having the stronger overall control. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Buhimba Saints arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly.

Mbarara City Analysis

Mbarara City sit 12 with 24 points after 28 league matches. The record of 5 wins, 9 draws, and 14 defeats, together with a 23:42 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through C. Kamugisha (7 goals), M. Kanyike (5 goals), H. Kitegenyi (2 goals), while at the back they have looked quite vulnerable. At home, the record of 3 wins, 4 draws, and 7 losses points toward a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

Buhimba Saints Analysis

Buhimba Saints sit 16 with 15 points after 27 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Across the season they have posted 4 wins, 3 draws, and 20 defeats, and the 16:58 goal record continues to suggest poor form and are going through a difficult losing run. Their attacking burden often falls on E. Agondeze (7 goals), R. Ayiko (3 goals), A. Ntege (2 goals), while at the back they have been quite vulnerable. Away from home, the split record of 1 wins, 1 draws, and 11 losses points to a weak split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 2 head-to-head meetings, Mbarara City won 2 times, Buhimba Saints won 0 times, while 0 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 4:1 from Mbarara City's perspective. 1 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 1 matches, with an average of 2.5 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 1 (100%)
H2H summary: Mbarara City wins 2, draws 0, Buhimba Saints wins 0
Last matches: Mbarara City
23.05.26
Pre
Mbarara City
KCCA
1
4
L
13.05.26
Pre
Mbarara City
SC Villa
1
3
L
06.05.26
Pre
Mbarara City
Lugazi
1
0
W
28.04.26
Pre
Mbarara City
Express
2
1
W
24.04.26
Pre
Mbarara City
NEC
0
0
D
21.04.26
Pre
Mbarara City
Maroons
2
2
D
16.04.26
Pre
Mbarara City
Police
1
2
L
09.04.26
Pre
Mbarara City
UPDF
1
3
L
13.03.26
Pre
Mbarara City
BUL
0
0
D
10.03.26
Pre
Mbarara City
Kitara
0
1
L
07.03.26
Pre
Mbarara City
Vipers
1
2
L
04.03.26
Pre
Mbarara City
URA
0
2
L
17.02.26
Pre
Mbarara City
Entebbe UPPC
0
1
L
12.02.26
Pre
Mbarara City
Calvary
1
0
W
31.01.26
Pre
Mbarara City
Maroons
1
1
D
28.01.26
Pre
Mbarara City
SC Villa
1
6
L
24.01.26
Pre
Mbarara City
Lugazi
0
0
D
06.01.26
Pre
Mbarara City
Vipers
0
2
L
17.12.25
Pre
Mbarara City
URA
1
0
W
13.12.25
Pre
Mbarara City
Calvary
1
1
D
Last matches: Buhimba Saints
22.05.26
Pre
Buhimba Saints
URA
0
3
L
08.05.26
Pre
Buhimba Saints
Express
0
2
L
29.04.26
Pre
Buhimba Saints
Lugazi
0
2
L
25.04.26
Pre
Buhimba Saints
SC Villa
0
4
L
21.04.26
Pre
Buhimba Saints
Vipers
0
2
L
16.04.26
Pre
Buhimba Saints
Entebbe UPPC
1
2
L
11.04.26
Pre
Buhimba Saints
Calvary
0
2
L
13.03.26
Pre
Buhimba Saints
Kitara
0
4
L
10.03.26
Pre
Buhimba Saints
BUL
0
1
L
07.03.26
Pre
Buhimba Saints
Maroons
0
1
L
02.03.26
Pre
Buhimba Saints
KCCA
0
2
L
17.02.26
Pre
Buhimba Saints
Police
1
1
D
13.02.26
Pre
Buhimba Saints
UPDF
0
0
D
30.01.26
Pre
Buhimba Saints
Vipers
0
4
L
27.01.26
Pre
Buhimba Saints
NEC
0
1
L
24.01.26
Pre
Buhimba Saints
Express
1
3
L
06.01.26
Pre
Buhimba Saints
Maroons
1
0
W
16.12.25
Pre
Buhimba Saints
KCCA
0
1
L
10.12.25
Pre
Buhimba Saints
UPDF
2
2
D
03.12.25
Pre
Buhimba Saints
Police
0
4
L
H2H: Mbarara City vs Buhimba Saints
19.05.26
H2H
Mbarara City
Buhimba Saints
2
0
W
21.11.25
H2H
Buhimba Saints
Mbarara City
1
2
W
Last matches: Mbarara City
13.05.26
Pre
Mbarara City
SC Villa
1
3
L
28.04.26
Pre
Mbarara City
Express
2
1
W
21.04.26
Pre
Mbarara City
Maroons
2
2
D
16.04.26
Pre
Mbarara City
Police
1
2
L
10.03.26
Pre
Mbarara City
Kitara
0
1
L
07.03.26
Pre
Mbarara City
Vipers
1
2
L
12.02.26
Pre
Mbarara City
Calvary
1
0
W
24.01.26
Pre
Mbarara City
Lugazi
0
0
D
17.12.25
Pre
Mbarara City
URA
1
0
W
03.12.25
Pre
Mbarara City
Entebbe UPPC
1
1
D
28.11.25
Pre
Mbarara City
KCCA
1
2
L
01.11.25
Pre
Mbarara City
NEC
0
1
L
17.10.25
Pre
Mbarara City
BUL
1
1
D
03.10.25
Pre
Mbarara City
UPDF
0
1
L
H2H at home: Mbarara City
19.05.26
H2H
Mbarara City
Buhimba Saints
2
0
W
Last matches: Buhimba Saints
25.04.26
Pre
Buhimba Saints
SC Villa
0
4
L
11.04.26
Pre
Buhimba Saints
Calvary
0
2
L
13.03.26
Pre
Buhimba Saints
Kitara
0
4
L
07.03.26
Pre
Buhimba Saints
Maroons
0
1
L
13.02.26
Pre
Buhimba Saints
UPDF
0
0
D
30.01.26
Pre
Buhimba Saints
Vipers
0
4
L
24.01.26
Pre
Buhimba Saints
Express
1
3
L
16.12.25
Pre
Buhimba Saints
KCCA
0
1
L
03.12.25
Pre
Buhimba Saints
Police
0
4
L
26.11.25
Pre
Buhimba Saints
URA
3
7
L
08.11.25
Pre
Buhimba Saints
Lugazi
2
5
L
23.10.25
Pre
Buhimba Saints
BUL
0
3
L
26.09.25
Pre
Buhimba Saints
Entebbe UPPC
1
0
W
H2H away: Buhimba Saints
19.05.26
H2H
Mbarara City
Buhimba Saints
2
0
L