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FRANCE › LIGUE 1
20.09.2026 18:45
Orange Vélodrome
Referee: François Letexier, France
Marseille
Match Timeline
Paris Saint Germain
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🔄
30'
I. Paixao ↔ A. Gomes
Marseille
🟨
32'
Timothy Weah
Marseille
🟨
39'
Nuno Mendes
Paris Saint Germain
🔄
59'
K. Kvaratskhelia ↔ F. Torres
Paris Saint Germain
🔄
63'
A. Harit ↔ K. Abdallah
Marseille
🔄
65'
F. Ruiz ↔ M. Akliouche
Paris Saint Germain
⚽
66'
F. Torres · Assist: D. Doue
Paris Saint Germain
⚽
72'
A. Gomes · Assist: A. Gouiri
Marseille
⚽
74'
Marquinhos
Paris Saint Germain
🟨
77'
Timothy Weah
Marseille
🟥
77'
Timothy Weah
Marseille
🔄
79'
D. Doue ↔ L. Beraldo
Paris Saint Germain
🔄
79'
O. Dembele ↔ M. Godts
Paris Saint Germain
🟨
81'
Keyliane Abdallah
Marseille
🔄
84'
H. Abdelli ↔ K. Bezahaf
Marseille
🔄
84'
Emerson ↔ U. Garcia
Marseille
🔄
84'
N. Maupay ↔ F. Moumbagna
Marseille
🟨
90'
Angel Gomes
Marseille

Marseille vs Paris Saint Germain Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 59.2%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 82.5%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 82.2%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
59.2%
- ▥
BTTS Yes
82.5%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
82.2%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Marseille Win 59.2%
Draw 11.2%
Paris Saint Germain Win 29.6%
Expected Goals (xG)
Marseille1.46
Paris Saint Germain1.88
Recent Form (Last 5)
Marseille Marseille
WWDLW
13 GF / 17 GA
Paris Saint Germain Paris Saint Germain
WLDWL
15 GF / 12 GA
Key Stats
1.44
Average Goals Scored
1.88
1.89
Average Goals Conceded
1.5
5
BTTS Yes
6
7
Over 2.5
6
4.6
Shots on Goal
7.67

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Marseille Marseille 9 matches
Paris Saint Germain Paris Saint Germain 8 matches
Marseille Statistic Paris Saint Germain
3 Wins 3
0 Draws 3
6 Losses 2
13 Goals For 15
17 Goals Against 12
1.44 Avg Goals Scored 1.88
1.89 Avg Goals Conceded 1.5
5 BTTS Yes 6
8 Over 1.5 7
7 Over 2.5 6
4 Over 3.5 3
1 Clean Sheets 1
3 Failed To Score 1
4.6 Shots On Goal 7.67
13.6 Total Shots 20.33
4.6 Corners 5
57.8% Ball Possession 67%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Marseille won 3 times, Paris Saint Germain won 10 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 9:30 from Marseille's perspective. 9 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 5 matches, with an average of 2.6 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (88.8%)
Predicted formations: Marseille 4-4-2 / Paris Saint Germain 4-3-3
Missing players: Marseille 2, Paris Saint Germain 1
H2H summary: Marseille wins 3, draws 2, Paris Saint Germain wins 10

Standings

Ligue 1
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 6 4 2 0 10:5 5 14
D W D W W
2 6 4 1 1 9:4 5 13
W L W W D
3 6 4 1 1 12:10 2 13
W L W W W
4 6 3 2 1 11:4 7 11
L W D W D
5 6 3 2 1 8:4 4 11
L W D W W
6 6 3 2 1 11:8 3 11
W W W L D
7 6 2 2 2 12:9 3 8
W L L W D
8 6 2 2 2 6:6 0 8
W L D W L
9 6 2 2 2 5:7 -2 8
W W L D L
10 6 2 1 3 11:10 1 7
W L D L L
11 6 2 1 3 11:12 -1 7
L L D W W
12 6 2 1 3 7:10 -3 7
L W D L W
13 6 2 0 4 9:8 1 6
W L L L L
14 6 1 3 2 10:12 -2 6
L W D D L
15 6 1 3 2 9:11 -2 6
D W D L D
16 6 2 0 4 8:16 -8 6
L W W L L
17 6 1 1 4 4:13 -9 4
L L L L W
18 6 0 2 4 4:8 -4 2
L L D L D
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