14.08.2026 15:30
Orange Velodrome
Referee: A. Petit
Marseille
Match Timeline
Atletico Madrid
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
5'
G. Simeone
Atletico Madrid
🟨
17'
R. Le Normand
Atletico Madrid
22'
I. Paixao
Marseille
🔄
36'
G. Simeone ↔ D. Martinez
Atletico Madrid
🔄
36'
Lee Kang-In ↔ C. Martin
Atletico Madrid
🔄
36'
A. Grimaldo ↔ R. Mendoza
Atletico Madrid
39'
R. Mendoza · Assist: A. Lookman
Atletico Madrid
🟨
41'
I. Paixao
Marseille
🔄
46'
P. Barrios ↔ A. Ortiz
Atletico Madrid
🟨
48'
L. Balerdi
Marseille
🔄
56'
Koke ↔ O. Vargas
Atletico Madrid
🔄
56'
J. Cardoso ↔ M. Hjulmand
Atletico Madrid
🟨
62'
G. Kondogbia
Marseille
🔄
69'
R. Le Normand ↔ J. Gimenez
Atletico Madrid
🔄
70'
A. Lookman ↔ J. Castillo
Atletico Madrid
🔄
70'
D. Hancko ↔ M. Pubill
Atletico Madrid
🔄
70'
J. Dominguez ↔ J. Bonar
Atletico Madrid
🔄
76'
A. Gomes ↔ T. Nnadi
Marseille
🔄
76'
H. Abdelli ↔ Q. Timber
Marseille
78'
C. Martin · Assist: A. Ortiz
Atletico Madrid
🔄
82'
L. Balerdi ↔ N. Maupay
Marseille
🔄
82'
I. Paixao ↔ T. Mmadi
Marseille
🔄
82'
G. Kondogbia ↔ A. Koum Mbondo
Marseille
🔄
87'
Emerson ↔ U. Garcia
Marseille
🔄
87'
T. Weah ↔ K. Bezahaf
Marseille
🔄
87'
A. Harit ↔ K. Abdallah
Marseille

Marseille vs Atletico Madrid Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 59.7%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 78.8%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 82.2%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
59.7%
-
BTTS Yes
78.8%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
82.2%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Marseille Win 59.7%
Draw 5.5%
Atletico Madrid Win 34.8%
Expected Goals (xG)
Marseille1.8
Atletico Madrid1.87
Recent Form (Last 5)
Marseille Marseille
WWDLW
5 GF / 5 GA
Atletico Madrid Atletico Madrid
WLDWL
6 GF / 6 GA
Key Stats
1.67
Average Goals Scored
2
1.67
Average Goals Conceded
2
2
BTTS Yes
3
3
Over 2.5
3
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Marseille Marseille 3 matches
Atletico Madrid Atletico Madrid 3 matches
Marseille Statistic Atletico Madrid
2 Wins 1
0 Draws 0
1 Losses 2
5 Goals For 6
5 Goals Against 6
1.67 Avg Goals Scored 2
1.67 Avg Goals Conceded 2
2 BTTS Yes 3
3 Over 1.5 3
3 Over 2.5 3
1 Over 3.5 2
0 Clean Sheets 0
1 Failed To Score 0
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

H2H Analysis

Across those 2 head-to-head meetings, Marseille won 0 times, Atletico Madrid won 2 times, while 0 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 1:5 from Marseille's perspective. 2 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 1 matches, with an average of 3 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (94.5%)
Predicted formations: Marseille 4-2-3-1 / Atletico Madrid 4-4-2
H2H summary: Marseille wins 0, draws 0, Atletico Madrid wins 2