BRAZIL SERIE C
--.--.---- --:--
Referee: F. dos Santos
Maringá
Match Timeline
Santa Cruz
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
5'
Pedro Favela
Santa Cruz
22'
Adeilson
Maringá
🟨
27'
Maringá
Maringá
🔄
46'
Marcos Andre ↔ Leo Costa
Santa Cruz
🔄
59'
Ronald ↔ Patrick Allan
Santa Cruz
🔄
61'
Paulinho ↔ Bruno Cheron
Maringá
🔄
67'
Fabinho ↔ Andrey
Santa Cruz
🔄
67'
Quirino ↔ Eron
Santa Cruz
🔄
72'
Felipe Cardoso ↔ Wendel Lomar
Maringá
🔄
80'
Adeilson ↔ Guilherme Pira
Maringá
🔄
80'
Giovane Gomez ↔ Rai Natalino
Maringá
🔄
80'
Ronald Camarao ↔ Rafinha
Maringá
🔄
88'
William Alves ↔ Edson Miranda
Santa Cruz
🟨
90+1'
Santa Cruz
Santa Cruz
🟨
90+2'
Santa Cruz
Santa Cruz
🟨
90+6'
Santa Cruz
Santa Cruz

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 52.7%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 40%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 24.1%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
52.7%
-
BTTS BTTS No
40%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
24.1%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-0
-
-
Probability Distribution
Maringá Win 52.7%
Draw 16.7%
Santa Cruz Win 30.6%
Expected Goals (xG)
Maringá1.76
Santa Cruz1.48
Recent Form (Last 5)
Maringá Maringá
WWDLW
17 GF / 18 GA
Santa Cruz Santa Cruz
WLDWL
6 GF / 6 GA
Key Stats
2.43
Average Goals Scored
0.75
2.57
Average Goals Conceded
0.75
6
BTTS Yes
2
7
Over 2.5
1
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Maringá Maringá 7 matches
Santa Cruz Santa Cruz 8 matches
Maringá Statistic Santa Cruz
4 Wins 3
0 Draws 1
3 Losses 4
17 Goals For 6
18 Goals Against 6
2.43 Avg Goals Scored 0.75
2.57 Avg Goals Conceded 0.75
6 BTTS Yes 2
7 Over 1.5 3
7 Over 2.5 1
7 Over 3.5 0
0 Clean Sheets 2
1 Failed To Score 4
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match looks like a contest between Santa Cruz's more proactive style and Maringá's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Santa Cruz. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Santa Cruz having the stronger overall control.

Maringá Analysis

With 12 points from 7 games and a place of 5, Maringá still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. The overall return of 4 wins, 0 draws, and 3 defeats with a 17:18 goal balance points toward mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on Edison Negueba (3 goals), Guilherme Pira (2 goals), Rafinha (2 goals), while defensively they have looked very solid. At home, the split record of 2 wins, 0 draws, and 2 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

Santa Cruz Analysis

With 10 points from 7 games and a place of 10, Santa Cruz still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. The overall return of 3 wins, 1 draws, and 3 defeats with a 6:5 goal balance points toward mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on Marcos Andre (2 goals), Pedro Favela (1 goals), Ronald (1 goals), while defensively they have looked very solid. Away from home, the split record of 1 wins, 1 draws, and 2 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader football approach still suggests balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 1 head-to-head meetings, Maringá won 0 times, Santa Cruz won 0 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 1:1 from Maringá's perspective. 0 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 1 matches, with an average of 2 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (83.3%)
H2H summary: Maringá wins 0, draws 1, Santa Cruz wins 0

Lineups

Maringá
Formation
Santa Cruz
Neto
Neto
Jhow Alecxander
Jhow Alecxander
Gabriel Santos
Gabriel Santos
Felipe Cardoso
Felipe Cardoso
Lucas Bonifacio
Lucas Bonifacio
Adeilson
Adeilson
Paulinho
Paulinho
Edison Negueba
Edison Negueba
Ronald Camarao
Ronald Camarao
Caique Calito
Caique Calito
Giovane Gomez
Giovane Gomez
Thiago Coelho
Thiago Coelho
Eurico
Eurico
William Alves
William Alves
Pedro Favela
Pedro Favela
Alex Ruan
Alex Ruan
Fabinho
Fabinho
Quirino
Quirino
Ronald
Ronald
Renato
Renato
Marcos Andre
Marcos Andre
Jefferson Bahia
Jefferson Bahia
Maringá 4-4-2 (estimated)
Starting XI
25
Neto
18
Jhow Alecxander
3
Gabriel Santos
14
Felipe Cardoso
↓ 72'
28
Lucas Bonifacio
8
Adeilson
⚽ 22' ↓ 80'
23
Paulinho
↓ 61'
7
Edison Negueba
21
Ronald Camarao
↓ 80'
99
Caique Calito
9
Giovane Gomez
↓ 80'
Substitutes
2
Gabriel Souza
4
Wendel Lomar
↑ 72'
10
Guilherme Pira
↑ 80'
12
Romario
15
N. Neira
17
Iago Santana
20
Bruno Cheron
↑ 61'
29
Rai Natalino
↑ 80'
32
Caua Tavares
35
Pedro Augusto
37
Rian Patric
77
Rafinha
↑ 80'
Santa Cruz 4-4-2 (estimated)
Starting XI
1
Thiago Coelho
3
Eurico
4
William Alves
↓ 88'
5
Pedro Favela
⚽ 5'
6
Alex Ruan
7
Fabinho
↓ 67'
9
Quirino
↓ 67'
17
Ronald
↓ 59'
19
Renato
29
Marcos Andre
↓ 46'
30
Jefferson Bahia
Substitutes
25
Gabriel Souza
12
Rokenedy
8
Leo Costa
↑ 46'
11
Robinho
13
Matheus Vinicius
15
Andrey
↑ 67'
20
Patrick Allan
↑ 59'
21
Nilton
23
Tiago Marques
27
Edson Miranda
↑ 88'
28
Eron
↑ 67'
31
Ze Mario
Last matches: Maringá
09.08.26
Ser
Maringá
Amazonas
0
3
L
27.07.26
Ser
Maringá
Floresta
1
1
D
12.07.26
Ser
Maringá
Anápolis
1
0
W
04.07.26
Ser
Maringá
Volta Redonda
4
0
W
27.06.26
Ser
Maringá
Inter De Limeira
2
2
D
21.06.26
Ser
Maringá
Caxias
1
1
D
15.06.26
Ser
Maringá
Maranhão
0
0
D
30.05.26
Ser
Maringá
Botafogo PB
1
2
L
16.05.26
Ser
Maringá
Ypiranga-RS
4
1
W
11.05.26
Ser
Maringá
Guarani Campinas
0
5
L
03.05.26
Ser
Maringá
AO Itabaiana
4
2
W
26.04.26
Ser
Maringá
Ituano
1
4
L
20.04.26
Ser
Maringá
Brusque
2
3
L
13.04.26
Ser
Maringá
Figueirense
3
1
W
04.04.26
Ser
Maringá
Ferroviária
3
2
W
Last matches: Santa Cruz
08.08.26
Ser
Santa Cruz
Botafogo PB
2
2
D
25.07.26
Ser
Santa Cruz
Figueirense
0
1
L
12.07.26
Ser
Santa Cruz
Barra
2
1
W
04.07.26
Ser
Santa Cruz
Ituano
1
0
W
27.06.26
Ser
Santa Cruz
Paysandu
3
1
W
20.06.26
Ser
Santa Cruz
Ypiranga-RS
0
1
L
14.06.26
Ser
Santa Cruz
Brusque
1
0
W
31.05.26
Ser
Santa Cruz
Ferroviária
1
1
D
16.05.26
Ser
Santa Cruz
Volta Redonda
2
0
W
11.05.26
Ser
Santa Cruz
Inter De Limeira
2
1
W
02.05.26
Ser
Santa Cruz
Guarani Campinas
0
1
L
26.04.26
Ser
Santa Cruz
Amazonas
0
1
L
18.04.26
Ser
Santa Cruz
Confiança
0
1
L
11.04.26
Ser
Santa Cruz
Floresta
1
1
D
06.04.26
Ser
Santa Cruz
AO Itabaiana
1
0
W
08.01.26
Fri
Santa Cruz
Defensa Y Justicia
0
1
L
04.10.25
Ser
Santa Cruz
Barra
0
0
D
27.09.25
Ser
Santa Cruz
Barra
1
2
L
20.09.25
Ser
Santa Cruz
Maranhão
0
0
D
14.09.25
Ser
Santa Cruz
Maranhão
1
0
W
H2H: Maringá vs Santa Cruz
23.05.26
H2H
Maringá
Santa Cruz
1
1
D
Last matches: Maringá
09.08.26
Ser
Maringá
Amazonas
0
3
L
04.07.26
Ser
Maringá
Volta Redonda
4
0
W
15.06.26
Ser
Maringá
Maranhão
0
0
D
11.05.26
Ser
Maringá
Guarani Campinas
0
5
L
03.05.26
Ser
Maringá
AO Itabaiana
4
2
W
20.04.26
Ser
Maringá
Brusque
2
3
L
04.04.26
Ser
Maringá
Ferroviária
3
2
W
H2H at home: Maringá
23.05.26
H2H
Maringá
Santa Cruz
1
1
D
Last matches: Santa Cruz
08.08.26
Ser
Santa Cruz
Botafogo PB
2
2
D
12.07.26
Ser
Santa Cruz
Barra
2
1
W
27.06.26
Ser
Santa Cruz
Paysandu
3
1
W
14.06.26
Ser
Santa Cruz
Brusque
1
0
W
11.05.26
Ser
Santa Cruz
Inter De Limeira
2
1
W
02.05.26
Ser
Santa Cruz
Guarani Campinas
0
1
L
18.04.26
Ser
Santa Cruz
Confiança
0
1
L
11.04.26
Ser
Santa Cruz
Floresta
1
1
D
04.10.25
Ser
Santa Cruz
Barra
0
0
D
14.09.25
Ser
Santa Cruz
Maranhão
1
0
W
07.09.25
Ser
Santa Cruz
America-RN
1
1
D
24.08.25
Ser
Santa Cruz
Altos
0
0
D
03.08.25
Ser
Santa Cruz
Sergipe
1
2
L
20.07.25
Ser
Santa Cruz
Horizonte
0
2
L
06.07.25
Ser
Santa Cruz
America-RN
0
0
D
08.06.25
Ser
Santa Cruz
Ferroviario
1
3
L
25.05.25
Ser
Santa Cruz
Sousa
1
0
W
18.05.25
Ser
Santa Cruz
Central SC
2
1
W
03.05.25
Ser
Santa Cruz
Santa Cruz RN
0
0
D
20.04.25
Ser
Santa Cruz
Treze
1
0
W
H2H away: Santa Cruz
23.05.26
H2H
Maringá
Santa Cruz
1
1
D