FINLAND VEIKKAUSLIIGA
--.--.---- --:--
Wiklof Holding Arena
Referee: O. Reitala
Mariehamn
Match Timeline
Gnistan
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
13'
Marcelo Costa · Assist: J. Latonen
Gnistan
28'
J. Latonen · Assist: S. Ylatupa
Gnistan
🔄
46'
P. Lindgren ↔ L. Pearce
Mariehamn
🟨
59'
Kevin Lund
Mariehamn
🟨
59'
Sebastian Dahlström
Mariehamn
🔄
62'
A. Jouhi ↔ S. Eremenko
Gnistan
🔄
62'
A. Akinyemi ↔ D. Perez
Gnistan
65'
D. Perez · Assist: R. Eremenko
Gnistan
🔄
74'
N. Dosis ↔ M. Hyvonen
Mariehamn
🔄
74'
A. Larsson ↔ A. Lundberg
Mariehamn
🔄
74'
A. Stroud ↔ L. Andersson
Mariehamn
🔄
74'
R. Eremenko ↔ A. Atarah
Gnistan
🔄
80'
R. Gnanou ↔ J. Ojala
Gnistan
🔄
80'
G. Europaeus ↔ V. Hanninen
Gnistan
🟨
90+2'
Yeboah Amankwah
Mariehamn
🟨
90+2'
Artur Atarah
Gnistan
🔄
90+3'
N. Nurmi ↔ T. Koivisto
Mariehamn

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 52.1%
Odds 4.00
BTTS
Yes
Probability 62.8%
Odds 1.80
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 52.4%
Odds 1.91
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
52.1%
4.00
BTTS Yes
62.8%
1.80
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
52.4%
1.91
Corners O/U Under 8.5 Corners
92%
2.98
HT / FT Home / Home
-
6.50
Correct Score 2-1
-
12.00
Probability Distribution
Mariehamn Win 52.1%
Draw 7.5%
Gnistan Win 40.4%
Expected Goals (xG)
Mariehamn1.13
Gnistan1.34
Recent Form (Last 5)
Mariehamn Mariehamn
WWDLW
10 GF / 20 GA
Gnistan Gnistan
WLDWL
18 GF / 25 GA
Key Stats
0.77
Average Goals Scored
1.2
1.54
Average Goals Conceded
1.67
7
BTTS Yes
7
4
Over 2.5
7
1.33
Shots on Goal
1

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Mariehamn Mariehamn 13 matches
Gnistan Gnistan 15 matches
Mariehamn Statistic Gnistan
1 Wins 4
6 Draws 3
6 Losses 8
10 Goals For 18
20 Goals Against 25
0.77 Avg Goals Scored 1.2
1.54 Avg Goals Conceded 1.67
7 BTTS Yes 7
10 Over 1.5 13
4 Over 2.5 7
2 Over 3.5 4
0 Clean Sheets 3
6 Failed To Score 5
1.33 Shots On Goal 1
3.11 Total Shots 2.89
1.33 Corners 1.44
19% Ball Possession 17.8%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Gnistan carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 8 with 11 points while Mariehamn sit 12 on 4, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Mariehamn expected to line up in 4-3-1-2 and Gnistan in 5-3-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Gnistan having the stronger overall control. Given the broader gap between the sides, Away Win looks like the most logical direction, while the clean-sheet expectation leans toward Gnistan. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

Mariehamn Analysis

Mariehamn sit 12 with 4 points after 9 league matches. The record of 0 wins, 4 draws, and 5 defeats, together with a 5:14 goal balance, points toward poor form . Much of their attacking threat comes through S. Dahlstrom (2 goals), A. Huttunen (1 goals), A. Larsson (1 goals), with creative support from Emmanuel Patut (1 assists), T. Koivisto (1 assists), Y. Amankwah (1 assists), while at the back they have looked very solid. At home, the record of 0 wins, 3 draws, and 1 losses points toward a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

Gnistan Analysis

From their first 9 matches, Gnistan have collected 11 points and now occupy 8 place in the table. Across the campaign, they have posted 3 wins, 2 draws, and 4 losses, while the 13:15 goal ratio supports the view of poor form . Going forward they rely heavily on Adeleke Akinola Akinyemi (5 goals), Joakim Latonen (2 goals), A. Obileye (1 goals), with creative support from Joakim Latonen (2 assists), Edmund Arko-Mensah (2 assists), Roman Eremenko (2 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. Away from home, they have returned 0 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses, a split that suggests a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms, they tend to show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 13 head-to-head meetings, Mariehamn won 3 times, Gnistan won 6 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 17:24 from Mariehamn's perspective. 9 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 7 matches, with an average of 3.15 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (92.5%)
Predicted formations: Mariehamn 4-3-1-2 / Gnistan 5-3-2
H2H summary: Mariehamn wins 3, draws 4, Gnistan wins 6

Lineups

Mariehamn
Formation
Gnistan
K. Lund
K. Lund
Y. Amankwah
Y. Amankwah
N. Nurmi
N. Nurmi
P. Lindgren
P. Lindgren
J. Nissinen
J. Nissinen
A. Stroud
A. Stroud
N. Dosis
N. Dosis
S. Ngulube
S. Ngulube
S. Dahlstrom
S. Dahlstrom
A. Huttunen
A. Huttunen
A. Larsson
A. Larsson
A. Craninx
A. Craninx
O. Hannula
O. Hannula
R. Gnanou
R. Gnanou
A. Obileye
A. Obileye
Marcelo Costa
Marcelo Costa
R. Eremenko
🎯
R. Eremenko
A. Jouhi
A. Jouhi
G. Europaeus
G. Europaeus
J. Latonen
🎯
J. Latonen
S. Ylatupa
🎯
S. Ylatupa
A. Akinyemi
A. Akinyemi
Mariehamn 3-4-2-1
Starting XI
1
K. Lund
🟨 59'
G
38
Y. Amankwah
🟨 90+2'
D
2
N. Nurmi
↓ 90+3'
D
4
P. Lindgren
↓ 46'
D
28
J. Nissinen
D
18
A. Stroud
↓ 74'
M
6
N. Dosis
↓ 74'
M
31
S. Ngulube
D
10
S. Dahlstrom
🟨 59'
M
16
A. Huttunen
M
7
A. Larsson
↓ 74'
F
Substitutes
32
M. Riikonen
G
64
M. Hyvonen
↑ 74'
F
21
A. Lundberg
↑ 74'
F
43
L. Andersson
↑ 74'
F
11
L. Pearce
↑ 46'
F
5
T. Koivisto
↑ 90+3'
D
3
A. Soiniemi
D
Gnistan 4-4-2
Starting XI
1
A. Craninx
G
27
O. Hannula
M
24
R. Gnanou
↓ 80'
D
67
A. Obileye
D
4
Marcelo Costa
⚽ 13'
F
26
R. Eremenko
🎯 65' ↓ 74'
M
31
A. Jouhi
↓ 62'
M
15
G. Europaeus
↓ 80'
M
10
J. Latonen
⚽ 28' 🎯 13'
F
23
S. Ylatupa
🎯 28'
F
17
A. Akinyemi
↓ 62'
F
Substitutes
22
Ramilson
G
40
J. Ojala
↑ 80'
D
7
A. Atarah
↑ 74' 🟨 90+2'
M
14
S. Eremenko
↑ 62'
M
11
D. Perez
⚽ 65' ↑ 62'
F
19
V. Hanninen
↑ 80'
M
2
B. Dahlstrom
D
20
M. H. Bjurstrom
D
Last matches: Mariehamn
30.05.26
Vei
Mariehamn
HJK Helsinki
0
1
L
23.05.26
Vei
Mariehamn
FF Jaro
0
3
L
16.05.26
Vei
Mariehamn
KuPS
1
1
D
10.05.26
Vei
Mariehamn
Lahti
1
1
D
02.05.26
Vei
Mariehamn
VPS
0
1
L
25.04.26
Vei
Mariehamn
Inter Turku
0
1
L
18.04.26
Vei
Mariehamn
Ilves
2
2
D
10.04.26
Vei
Mariehamn
SJK
0
3
L
04.04.26
Vei
Mariehamn
Turku PS
1
1
D
27.03.26
Fri
Mariehamn
EIF
3
2
W
21.03.26
Fri
Mariehamn
Sandviken
1
1
D
14.03.26
Fri
Mariehamn
KuPS
0
2
L
28.02.26
Fri
Mariehamn
Sleipner
1
1
D
Last matches: Gnistan
17.06.26
Vei
Gnistan
Lahti
1
0
W
30.05.26
Vei
Gnistan
SJK
3
2
W
23.05.26
Vei
Gnistan
Ilves
0
2
L
16.05.26
Vei
Gnistan
FF Jaro
5
0
W
09.05.26
Vei
Gnistan
VPS
1
1
D
05.05.26
Vei
Gnistan
Inter Turku
2
0
W
24.04.26
Vei
Gnistan
Turku PS
1
1
D
18.04.26
Vei
Gnistan
HJK Helsinki
0
3
L
11.04.26
Vei
Gnistan
KuPS
0
1
L
04.04.26
Vei
Gnistan
AC Oulu
1
5
L
28.03.26
Fri
Gnistan
Kooteepee
1
1
D
21.03.26
Fri
Gnistan
PK-35
2
0
W
14.03.26
Fri
Gnistan
SJK
1
3
L
10.03.26
Fri
Gnistan
HJK Helsinki
0
3
L
07.03.26
Fri
Gnistan
JäPS
1
2
L
24.01.26
Fri
Gnistan
Ilves
0
1
L
H2H: Mariehamn vs Gnistan
13.06.26
H2H
Mariehamn
Gnistan
0
3
L
30.01.26
H2H
Gnistan
Mariehamn
2
2
D
09.08.25
H2H
Mariehamn
Gnistan
2
5
L
03.05.25
H2H
Gnistan
Mariehamn
2
0
L
08.02.25
H2H
Gnistan
Mariehamn
4
0
L
15.09.24
H2H
Gnistan
Mariehamn
2
1
L
21.08.24
H2H
Gnistan
Mariehamn
2
1
L
26.05.24
H2H
Mariehamn
Gnistan
1
1
D
01.03.24
H2H
Mariehamn
Gnistan
0
0
D
29.10.23
H2H
Mariehamn
Gnistan
3
0
W
25.10.23
H2H
Gnistan
Mariehamn
0
0
D
13.03.20
H2H
Gnistan
Mariehamn
2
3
W
25.04.12
H2H
Gnistan
Mariehamn
1
4
W
Last matches: Mariehamn
16.05.26
Vei
Mariehamn
KuPS
1
1
D
02.05.26
Vei
Mariehamn
VPS
0
1
L
18.04.26
Vei
Mariehamn
Ilves
2
2
D
04.04.26
Vei
Mariehamn
Turku PS
1
1
D
27.03.26
Fri
Mariehamn
EIF
3
2
W
28.02.26
Fri
Mariehamn
Sleipner
1
1
D
H2H at home: Mariehamn
13.06.26
H2H
Mariehamn
Gnistan
0
3
L
09.08.25
H2H
Mariehamn
Gnistan
2
5
L
26.05.24
H2H
Mariehamn
Gnistan
1
1
D
01.03.24
H2H
Mariehamn
Gnistan
0
0
D
29.10.23
H2H
Mariehamn
Gnistan
3
0
W
Last matches: Gnistan
23.05.26
Vei
Gnistan
Ilves
0
2
L
09.05.26
Vei
Gnistan
VPS
1
1
D
24.04.26
Vei
Gnistan
Turku PS
1
1
D
11.04.26
Vei
Gnistan
KuPS
0
1
L
28.03.26
Fri
Gnistan
Kooteepee
1
1
D
10.03.26
Fri
Gnistan
HJK Helsinki
0
3
L
07.03.26
Fri
Gnistan
JäPS
1
2
L
24.01.26
Fri
Gnistan
Ilves
0
1
L
H2H away: Gnistan
13.06.26
H2H
Mariehamn
Gnistan
0
3
W
09.08.25
H2H
Mariehamn
Gnistan
2
5
W
26.05.24
H2H
Mariehamn
Gnistan
1
1
D
01.03.24
H2H
Mariehamn
Gnistan
0
0
D
29.10.23
H2H
Mariehamn
Gnistan
3
0
L
Showing odds from: 1xBet
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 1.93
Draw 3.74
Home 4.00
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 2.59
Draw 2.31
Home 4.51
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 1.5 1.28
Over 1.75 1.41
Over 2.0 1.43
Over 2.25 1.67
Over 2.5 1.91
Over 2.75 2.14
Over 3.0 2.56
Over 3.5 3.21
Over 4.5 6.22
Under 1.5 3.85
Under 1.75 2.93
Under 2.0 2.96
Under 2.25 2.30
Under 2.5 1.98
Under 2.75 1.76
Under 3.0 1.55
Under 3.5 1.37
Under 4.5 1.14
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 1.85
Draw 3.60
Home 3.50
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 2.50
Draw 2.20
Home 4.33
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 2.38
Draw 2.40
Home 3.60
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 0.5 1.05
Over 1.5 1.30
Over 2.5 1.95
Over 3.5 3.40
Over 4.5 7.00
Over 5.5 15.00
Over 6.5 29.00
Over 7.5 51.00
Under 0.5 11.00
Under 1.5 3.40
Under 2.5 1.85
Under 3.5 1.30
Under 4.5 1.10
Under 5.5 1.03
Under 6.5 1.01
Under 7.5 1.00
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 1.92
Draw 3.55
Home 3.77
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 2.49
Draw 2.14
Home 4.42
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 2.25
Draw 2.52
Home 3.93
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 0.5 1.01
Over 0.75 1.01
Over 1.0 1.01
Over 1.25 1.12
Over 1.5 1.23
Over 1.75 1.31
Over 2.0 1.39
Over 2.25 1.64
Over 2.5 1.87
Over 2.75 2.03
Over 3.0 2.44
Over 3.25 2.70
Over 3.5 2.99
Over 3.75 3.68
Over 4.0 5.00
Over 4.25 5.34
Over 4.5 5.70
Over 4.75 7.34
Over 5.0 9.10
Over 5.5 11.50
Over 6.5 29.00
Over 7.5 50.00
Under 0.5 10.00
Under 0.75 8.70
Under 1.0 8.50
Under 1.25 4.70
Under 1.5 3.44
Under 1.75 3.06
Under 2.0 2.69
Under 2.25 2.21
Under 2.5 1.90
Under 2.75 1.67
Under 3.0 1.47
Under 3.25 1.36
Under 3.5 1.30
Under 3.75 1.20
Under 4.0 1.10
Under 4.25 1.09
Under 4.5 1.08
Under 4.75 1.04
Under 5.0 1.02
Under 5.5 1.03
Under 6.5 1.01
Under 7.5 1.00
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 2.00
Draw 3.30
Home 3.45
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 2.60
Draw 2.14
Home 3.80
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 2.38
Draw 2.48
Home 3.60
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 1.5 1.28
Over 2.0 1.45
Over 2.25 1.68
Over 2.5 1.92
Over 2.75 2.18
Over 3.0 2.65
Over 3.25 3.00
Over 3.5 3.30
Over 3.75 4.10
Over 4.0 5.50
Over 4.25 5.75
Over 4.5 6.00
Over 4.75 6.50
Over 5.0 9.50
Under 1.5 3.25
Under 2.0 2.48
Under 2.25 2.00
Under 2.5 1.77
Under 2.75 1.58
Under 3.0 1.40
Under 3.25 1.32
Under 3.5 1.27
Under 3.75 1.19
Under 4.0 1.11
Under 4.25 1.10
Under 4.5 1.09
Under 4.75 1.07
Under 5.0 1.04

Standings

Veikkausliiga
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 13 7 5 1 20:11 9 26
D D D W W
2 13 6 6 1 19:12 7 24
W D D W W
3 11 7 1 3 16:8 8 22
D W W W L
4 12 5 4 3 21:13 8 19
D W W L D
5 11 5 2 4 17:15 2 17
W W W L W
6 11 4 5 2 11:9 2 17
W D L W D
7 11 4 3 4 12:11 1 15
L L W L L
8 12 4 3 5 19:21 -2 15
W W L W L
9 11 3 2 6 14:14 0 11
L L W L D
10 11 2 3 6 12:18 -6 9
L W L L L
11 12 1 4 7 10:27 -17 7
L L L W L
12 10 0 4 6 5:17 -12 4
L L L D D
Promotion - Veikkausliiga (Championship Group)
Veikkausliiga (Relegation Group)