Predictions & Statistics
Full analysis and predictions for all markets
| Market | Option | Probability | Odds | Stats & Analysis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home Win |
52.1%
|
4.00 | |
| BTTS | Yes |
62.8%
|
1.80 | |
| Over / Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 |
52.4%
|
1.91 | |
| Corners O/U | Under 8.5 Corners |
92%
|
2.98 | |
| HT / FT | Home / Home |
-
|
6.50 | |
| Correct Score | 2-1 |
-
|
12.00 |
Mariehamn
Gnistan
Statistics are based on season averages
Season Statistics
Team averages and season trends before this fixture
Mariehamn
13 matches
Gnistan
15 matches
| Mariehamn | Statistic | Gnistan |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wins | 4 |
| 6 | Draws | 3 |
| 6 | Losses | 8 |
| 10 | Goals For | 18 |
| 20 | Goals Against | 25 |
| 0.77 | Avg Goals Scored | 1.2 |
| 1.54 | Avg Goals Conceded | 1.67 |
| 7 | BTTS Yes | 7 |
| 10 | Over 1.5 | 13 |
| 4 | Over 2.5 | 7 |
| 2 | Over 3.5 | 4 |
| 0 | Clean Sheets | 3 |
| 6 | Failed To Score | 5 |
| 1.33 | Shots On Goal | 1 |
| 3.11 | Total Shots | 2.89 |
| 1.33 | Corners | 1.44 |
| 19% | Ball Possession | 17.8% |
Match Analysis
Model notes, team context and key prediction signals
On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Gnistan carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 8 with 11 points while Mariehamn sit 12 on 4, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Mariehamn expected to line up in 4-3-1-2 and Gnistan in 5-3-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Gnistan having the stronger overall control. Given the broader gap between the sides, Away Win looks like the most logical direction, while the clean-sheet expectation leans toward Gnistan. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.
Mariehamn sit 12 with 4 points after 9 league matches. The record of 0 wins, 4 draws, and 5 defeats, together with a 5:14 goal balance, points toward poor form . Much of their attacking threat comes through S. Dahlstrom (2 goals), A. Huttunen (1 goals), A. Larsson (1 goals), with creative support from Emmanuel Patut (1 assists), T. Koivisto (1 assists), Y. Amankwah (1 assists), while at the back they have looked very solid. At home, the record of 0 wins, 3 draws, and 1 losses points toward a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.
From their first 9 matches, Gnistan have collected 11 points and now occupy 8 place in the table. Across the campaign, they have posted 3 wins, 2 draws, and 4 losses, while the 13:15 goal ratio supports the view of poor form . Going forward they rely heavily on Adeleke Akinola Akinyemi (5 goals), Joakim Latonen (2 goals), A. Obileye (1 goals), with creative support from Joakim Latonen (2 assists), Edmund Arko-Mensah (2 assists), Roman Eremenko (2 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. Away from home, they have returned 0 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses, a split that suggests a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms, they tend to show a more cautious and defensive approach.
Across those 13 head-to-head meetings, Mariehamn won 3 times, Gnistan won 6 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 17:24 from Mariehamn's perspective. 9 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 7 matches, with an average of 3.15 goals per game.
Lineups
Mariehamn
HJK Helsinki
Mariehamn
FF Jaro
Mariehamn
KuPS
Mariehamn
Lahti
Mariehamn
VPS
Mariehamn
Inter Turku
Mariehamn
Ilves
Mariehamn
SJK
Mariehamn
Turku PS
Mariehamn
EIF
Mariehamn
Sandviken
Mariehamn
KuPS
Mariehamn
Sleipner
Gnistan
Lahti
Gnistan
SJK
Gnistan
Ilves
Gnistan
FF Jaro
Gnistan
VPS
Gnistan
Inter Turku
Gnistan
Turku PS
Gnistan
HJK Helsinki
Gnistan
KuPS
Gnistan
AC Oulu
Gnistan
Kooteepee
Gnistan
PK-35
Gnistan
SJK
Gnistan
HJK Helsinki
Gnistan
JäPS
Gnistan
Ilves
Mariehamn
KuPS
Mariehamn
VPS
Mariehamn
Ilves
Mariehamn
Turku PS
Mariehamn
EIF
Mariehamn
Sleipner
Gnistan
Ilves
Gnistan
VPS
Gnistan
Turku PS
Gnistan
KuPS
Gnistan
Kooteepee
Gnistan
HJK Helsinki
Gnistan
JäPS
Gnistan
Ilves
Standings
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | PTS | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 13 | 7 | 5 | 1 | 20:11 | 9 | 26 |
D
D
D
W
W
|
|
| 2 | 13 | 6 | 6 | 1 | 19:12 | 7 | 24 |
W
D
D
W
W
|
|
| 3 | 11 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 16:8 | 8 | 22 |
D
W
W
W
L
|
|
| 4 | 12 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 21:13 | 8 | 19 |
D
W
W
L
D
|
|
| 5 |
Gnistan
Away
|
11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 17:15 | 2 | 17 |
W
W
W
L
W
|
| 6 | 11 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 11:9 | 2 | 17 |
W
D
L
W
D
|
|
| 7 | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 12:11 | 1 | 15 |
L
L
W
L
L
|
|
| 8 | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 19:21 | -2 | 15 |
W
W
L
W
L
|
|
| 9 | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 14:14 | 0 | 11 |
L
L
W
L
D
|
|
| 10 | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 12:18 | -6 | 9 |
L
W
L
L
L
|
|
| 11 | 12 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 10:27 | -17 | 7 |
L
L
L
W
L
|
|
| 12 |
Mariehamn
Home
|
10 | 0 | 4 | 6 | 5:17 | -12 | 4 |
L
L
L
D
D
|