FINLAND VEIKKAUSLIIGA
--.--.---- --:--
Wiklof Holding Arena
Referee: Joona Kontinen, Finland
Mariehamn
Match Timeline
AC Oulu
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
14'
A. Larsson · Assist: A. Stroud
Mariehamn
🟨
36'
O. Kemppainen
AC Oulu
38'
A. Larsson · Assist: A. Larsson
Mariehamn
🔄
46'
O. Kemppainen ↔ A. Kone
AC Oulu
🟨
52'
A. Soiniemi
Mariehamn
🟨
55'
M. Ojala
AC Oulu
🔄
64'
M. Ojala ↔ N. Jokelainen
AC Oulu
🔄
74'
A. Stroud ↔ V. Widlund
Mariehamn
🟨
75'
I. Mendolin
AC Oulu
78'
E. Kallio · Assist: A. Kone
AC Oulu
🟨
88'
J. Pirinen
AC Oulu

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 75.2%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 58.8%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 77.2%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
75.2%
-
BTTS Yes
58.8%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
77.2%
-
Corners O/U Under 11.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
-
Correct Score 1-2
-
-
Probability Distribution
Mariehamn Win 8.9%
Draw 16%
AC Oulu Win 75.2%
Expected Goals (xG)
Mariehamn0.9
AC Oulu1.62
Recent Form (Last 5)
Mariehamn Mariehamn
WWDLW
13 GF / 41 GA
AC Oulu AC Oulu
WLDWL
24 GF / 23 GA
Key Stats
0.65
Average Goals Scored
1.33
2.05
Average Goals Conceded
1.28
9
BTTS Yes
9
9
Over 2.5
8
1.38
Shots on Goal
2.07

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Mariehamn Mariehamn 20 matches
AC Oulu AC Oulu 18 matches
Mariehamn Statistic AC Oulu
1 Wins 9
6 Draws 3
13 Losses 6
13 Goals For 24
41 Goals Against 23
0.65 Avg Goals Scored 1.33
2.05 Avg Goals Conceded 1.28
9 BTTS Yes 9
17 Over 1.5 12
9 Over 2.5 8
5 Over 3.5 4
0 Clean Sheets 6
11 Failed To Score 4
1.38 Shots On Goal 2.07
3.63 Total Shots 5.6
2.13 Corners 2
24.9% Ball Possession 21.8%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around AC Oulu's more proactive style and Mariehamn's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward AC Oulu. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Mariehamn have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Mariehamn expected to line up in 4-4-1-1 and AC Oulu in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward AC Oulu having the stronger overall control. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. AC Oulu carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 4 with 26 points while Mariehamn sit 12 on 4, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output.

Mariehamn Analysis

With 4 points from 15 games and a place of 12, Mariehamn still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. The overall return of 0 wins, 4 draws, and 11 defeats with a 8:33 goal balance points toward poor form and are going through a difficult losing run. Going forward they depend heavily on A. Huttunen (1 goals), S. Dahlström (1 goals), with creative support from Y. Amankwah (1 assists), while defensively they have looked fairly stable. At home, the split record of 0 wins, 3 draws, and 4 losses points to a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

AC Oulu Analysis

AC Oulu come into this match from a strong league position, sitting 4 with 26 points from 15 matches. The record of 8 wins, 2 draws, and 5 defeats, together with a 20:18 goal balance, points toward poor form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through their main attacking players, while at the back they have looked very solid. Away from home, they have returned 3 wins, 1 draws, and 5 losses, a split that suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Mariehamn won 6 times, AC Oulu won 7 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 22:24 from Mariehamn's perspective. 10 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 12 matches, with an average of 3.07 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: X2 (91.1%)
Predicted formations: Mariehamn 4-4-1-1 / AC Oulu 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Mariehamn wins 6, draws 2, AC Oulu wins 7
Stats
Mariehamn Mariehamn
AC Oulu AC Oulu
Shots on Goal
6
Shots on Goal
7
Shots off Goal
7
Shots off Goal
8
Blocked Shots
5
Blocked Shots
2
7 Corner Kicks 9
9 Fouls 11
1 Offsides 4
44% Ball Possession 56%
18 Total Shots 17
6 Shots on Goal 7
7 Shots off Goal 8
5 Blocked Shots 2
14 Shots insidebox 14
4 Shots outsidebox 3
5 Goalkeeper Saves 5
363 Total passes 484
264 Passes accurate 396
🟨 1 Yellow Cards 4 🟨
🟥 0 Red Cards 0 🟥

Lineups

Mariehamn
Formation
AC Oulu
Kevin Lund
Kevin Lund
Jiri Nissinen
Jiri Nissinen
Tuomas Koivisto
Tuomas Koivisto
Foster Gyamfi
Aaro Soiniemi
Aaro Soiniemi
Emmanuel Patut
Emmanuel Patut
Jelle van der Heyden
Jelle van der Heyden
Adam Stroud
🎯
Adam Stroud
Jonathan Svedberg
Jonathan Svedberg
Rui Monteiro
Rui Monteiro
Adam Larsson
⚽ 2 🎯
Adam Larsson
Miguel Santos
Miguel Santos
Otto Kemppainen
Otto Kemppainen
Alex Lietsa
Alex Lietsa
Juha Pirinen
Juha Pirinen
Tuomas Kaukua
Tuomas Kaukua
Iiro Mendolin
Iiro Mendolin
Matias Ojala
Matias Ojala
Lamine Ghezali
Lamine Ghezali
Elias Kallio
Elias Kallio
Adramane Cassama
Adramane Cassama
Rasmus Karjalainen
Rasmus Karjalainen
Mariehamn 4-2-3-1
Starting XI
1
Kevin Lund
G
28
Jiri Nissinen
D
5
Tuomas Koivisto
D
19
Foster Gyamfi
D
3
Aaro Soiniemi
🟨 52'
D
20
Emmanuel Patut
M
8
Jelle van der Heyden
M
18
Adam Stroud
🎯 14' ↓ 74'
M
11
Jonathan Svedberg
M
22
Rui Monteiro
M
7
Adam Larsson
⚽ 14' ⚽ 38' 🎯 38'
F
Substitutes
23
Viktor Widlund
↑ 74'
D
32
Matias Riikonen
G
2
Noah Nurmi
D
31
Samson Ngulube
D
16
Anttoni Huttunen
M
14
Arvid Bergvik
M
64
Marlo Hyvonen
M
9
Wille Nuñez
F
43
Leo Andersson
F
AC Oulu 4-2-3-1
Starting XI
13
Miguel Santos
G
16
Otto Kemppainen
↓ 46' 🟨 36'
D
3
Alex Lietsa
D
66
Juha Pirinen
🟨 88'
D
22
Tuomas Kaukua
M
21
Iiro Mendolin
🟨 75'
M
8
Matias Ojala
↓ 64' 🟨 55'
M
11
Lamine Ghezali
M
27
Elias Kallio
⚽ 78'
M
18
Adramane Cassama
M
7
Rasmus Karjalainen
M
Substitutes
32
Abdoulaye Koné
F
14
Niklas Jokelainen
↑ 64'
M
99
Niklas Schulz
G
2
Sami Sipola
D
5
Mikko Pitkänen
D
29
Santeri Silander
D
40
Jesse Korhonen
M
Last matches: Mariehamn
01.08.26
Vei
Mariehamn
Turku PS
0
3
L
20.07.26
Vei
Mariehamn
Lahti
0
2
L
11.07.26
Vei
Mariehamn
Gnistan
2
4
L
04.07.26
Vei
Mariehamn
VPS
0
4
L
27.06.26
Vei
Mariehamn
Inter Turku
0
2
L
23.06.26
Vei
Mariehamn
HJK Helsinki
0
4
L
18.06.26
Vei
Mariehamn
AC Oulu
1
2
L
13.06.26
Vei
Mariehamn
Gnistan
0
3
L
30.05.26
Vei
Mariehamn
HJK Helsinki
0
1
L
23.05.26
Vei
Mariehamn
FF Jaro
0
3
L
16.05.26
Vei
Mariehamn
KuPS
1
1
D
10.05.26
Vei
Mariehamn
Lahti
1
1
D
02.05.26
Vei
Mariehamn
VPS
0
1
L
25.04.26
Vei
Mariehamn
Inter Turku
0
1
L
18.04.26
Vei
Mariehamn
Ilves
2
2
D
10.04.26
Vei
Mariehamn
SJK
0
3
L
04.04.26
Vei
Mariehamn
Turku PS
1
1
D
27.03.26
Fri
Mariehamn
EIF
3
2
W
21.03.26
Fri
Mariehamn
Sandviken
1
1
D
14.03.26
Fri
Mariehamn
KuPS
0
2
L
Last matches: AC Oulu
02.08.26
Vei
AC Oulu
Ilves
1
0
W
18.07.26
Vei
AC Oulu
Gnistan
0
2
L
11.07.26
Vei
AC Oulu
Turku PS
0
3
L
27.06.26
Vei
AC Oulu
Lahti
1
1
D
23.06.26
Vei
AC Oulu
VPS
1
5
L
18.06.26
Vei
AC Oulu
Mariehamn
2
1
W
13.06.26
Vei
AC Oulu
Inter Turku
0
0
D
31.05.26
Vei
AC Oulu
FF Jaro
2
1
W
23.05.26
Vei
AC Oulu
SJK
1
0
W
16.05.26
Vei
AC Oulu
Turku PS
1
0
W
08.05.26
Vei
AC Oulu
Ilves
0
1
L
02.05.26
Vei
AC Oulu
KuPS
2
0
W
25.04.26
Vei
AC Oulu
Lahti
1
2
L
22.04.26
Vei
AC Oulu
KuPS
2
3
L
18.04.26
Vei
AC Oulu
VPS
1
0
W
11.04.26
Vei
AC Oulu
HJK Helsinki
1
0
W
04.04.26
Vei
AC Oulu
Gnistan
5
1
W
28.03.26
Fri
AC Oulu
FF Jaro
3
2
W
18.01.26
Fri
AC Oulu
JIPPO
1
1
D
H2H: Mariehamn vs AC Oulu
25.07.26
H2H
Mariehamn
AC Oulu
1
1
D
18.06.26
H2H
AC Oulu
Mariehamn
2
1
L
18.10.25
H2H
Mariehamn
AC Oulu
2
0
W
26.07.25
H2H
Mariehamn
AC Oulu
0
1
L
17.05.25
H2H
AC Oulu
Mariehamn
0
1
W
19.10.24
H2H
AC Oulu
Mariehamn
1
2
W
01.09.24
H2H
Mariehamn
AC Oulu
2
1
W
17.05.24
H2H
AC Oulu
Mariehamn
1
1
D
16.09.23
H2H
AC Oulu
Mariehamn
3
2
L
09.07.23
H2H
Mariehamn
AC Oulu
1
2
L
03.06.23
H2H
AC Oulu
Mariehamn
3
2
L
28.09.22
H2H
Mariehamn
AC Oulu
2
4
L
23.07.22
H2H
AC Oulu
Mariehamn
3
1
L
24.04.22
H2H
Mariehamn
AC Oulu
2
1
W
16.10.21
H2H
AC Oulu
Mariehamn
1
2
W
Last matches: Mariehamn
20.07.26
Vei
Mariehamn
Lahti
0
2
L
27.06.26
Vei
Mariehamn
Inter Turku
0
2
L
23.06.26
Vei
Mariehamn
HJK Helsinki
0
4
L
13.06.26
Vei
Mariehamn
Gnistan
0
3
L
16.05.26
Vei
Mariehamn
KuPS
1
1
D
02.05.26
Vei
Mariehamn
VPS
0
1
L
18.04.26
Vei
Mariehamn
Ilves
2
2
D
04.04.26
Vei
Mariehamn
Turku PS
1
1
D
27.03.26
Fri
Mariehamn
EIF
3
2
W
28.02.26
Fri
Mariehamn
Sleipner
1
1
D
H2H at home: Mariehamn
25.07.26
H2H
Mariehamn
AC Oulu
1
1
D
18.10.25
H2H
Mariehamn
AC Oulu
2
0
W
26.07.25
H2H
Mariehamn
AC Oulu
0
1
L
01.09.24
H2H
Mariehamn
AC Oulu
2
1
W
09.07.23
H2H
Mariehamn
AC Oulu
1
2
L
28.09.22
H2H
Mariehamn
AC Oulu
2
4
L
24.04.22
H2H
Mariehamn
AC Oulu
2
1
W
Last matches: AC Oulu
11.07.26
Vei
AC Oulu
Turku PS
0
3
L
23.06.26
Vei
AC Oulu
VPS
1
5
L
13.06.26
Vei
AC Oulu
Inter Turku
0
0
D
23.05.26
Vei
AC Oulu
SJK
1
0
W
08.05.26
Vei
AC Oulu
Ilves
0
1
L
25.04.26
Vei
AC Oulu
Lahti
1
2
L
22.04.26
Vei
AC Oulu
KuPS
2
3
L
11.04.26
Vei
AC Oulu
HJK Helsinki
1
0
W
04.04.26
Vei
AC Oulu
Gnistan
5
1
W
28.03.26
Fri
AC Oulu
FF Jaro
3
2
W
H2H away: AC Oulu
25.07.26
H2H
Mariehamn
AC Oulu
1
1
D
18.10.25
H2H
Mariehamn
AC Oulu
2
0
L
26.07.25
H2H
Mariehamn
AC Oulu
0
1
W
01.09.24
H2H
Mariehamn
AC Oulu
2
1
L
09.07.23
H2H
Mariehamn
AC Oulu
1
2
W
28.09.22
H2H
Mariehamn
AC Oulu
2
4
W
24.04.22
H2H
Mariehamn
AC Oulu
2
1
L

Standings

Veikkausliiga
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 18 11 6 1 33:16 17 39
W W W W W
2 18 9 7 2 25:14 11 34
W L D W D
3 18 9 3 6 22:21 1 30
W D L L D
4 18 8 4 6 28:23 5 28
L W W L L
5 18 8 4 6 27:22 5 28
L W W W L
6 18 7 6 5 24:17 7 27
L L L W W
7 18 7 4 7 22:16 6 25
W L W W W
8 18 7 4 7 23:20 3 25
W L L W L
9 18 6 4 8 29:31 -2 22
L W W L D
10 18 4 5 9 22:27 -5 17
W L L L W
11 18 3 6 9 17:35 -18 15
L W D W L
12 18 0 5 13 9:39 -30 5
L D L L L
Promotion - Veikkausliiga (Championship Group)
Veikkausliiga (Relegation Group)