12.08.2026 18:30
Penalties 5-4
1 - 1
Croke Park
Referee: N. Doyle
Manchester United
Match Timeline
Leeds
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
16'
J. Zirkzee · Assist: B. Mbeumo
Manchester United
29'
B. Aaronson · Assist: D. James
Leeds
🔄
46'
Andrey Santos ↔ T. Collyer
Manchester United
🔄
46'
A. Heaven ↔ D. Armer
Manchester United
🔄
46'
P. Dorgu ↔ T. Thompson
Manchester United
🔄
46'
J. Trafford ↔ A. Cairns
Leeds
🔄
46'
L. Nmecha ↔ D. Calvert-Lewin
Leeds
🔄
46'
B. Aaronson ↔ H. Wilson
Leeds
🔄
46'
J. Bijol ↔ J. Rodon
Leeds
🔄
46'
R. Chadwick-Chaplin ↔ J. Justin
Leeds
🔄
46'
S. Longstaff ↔ A. Stach
Leeds
🔄
46'
D. James ↔ N. Okafor
Leeds
🔄
46'
T. Muharemovic ↔ A. Cresswell
Leeds
🔄
46'
A. Tanaka ↔ E. Ampadu
Leeds
🔄
46'
J. Bogle ↔ W. Gnonto
Leeds
🔄
60'
D. Dalot ↔ N. Mazraoui
Manchester United
🔄
60'
B. Mbeumo ↔ B. Fernandes
Manchester United
🔄
61'
S. Lammens ↔ D. Mee
Manchester United
🔄
61'
T. Fletcher ↔ Y. Tielemans
Manchester United
🔄
61'
H. Amass ↔ L. Shaw
Manchester United
🔄
61'
J. Zirkzee ↔ M. Cunha
Manchester United
🔄
61'
A. Diallo ↔ J. Fletcher
Manchester United

Manchester United vs Leeds Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 86.7%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 62.8%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 72%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
86.7%
-
BTTS Yes
62.8%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
72%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Manchester United Win 45.6%
Draw 13.3%
Leeds Win 41.1%
Expected Goals (xG)
Manchester United1.2
Leeds1.5
Recent Form (Last 5)
Manchester United Manchester United
WWDLW
8 GF / 3 GA
Leeds Leeds
WLDWL
2 GF / 0 GA
Key Stats
2
Average Goals Scored
2
0.75
Average Goals Conceded
0
2
BTTS Yes
0
2
Over 2.5
0
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Manchester United Manchester United 4 matches
Leeds Leeds 1 matches
Manchester United Statistic Leeds
2 Wins 1
1 Draws 0
1 Losses 0
8 Goals For 2
3 Goals Against 0
2 Avg Goals Scored 2
0.75 Avg Goals Conceded 0
2 BTTS Yes 0
3 Over 1.5 1
2 Over 2.5 0
1 Over 3.5 0
1 Clean Sheets 1
1 Failed To Score 0
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

H2H Analysis

Across those 12 head-to-head meetings, Manchester United won 6 times, Leeds won 1 times, while 5 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 27:11 from Manchester United's perspective. 6 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 7 matches, with an average of 3.17 goals per game.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (86.7%)
Predicted formations: Manchester United 4-2-3-1 / Leeds 3-4-2-1
H2H summary: Manchester United wins 6, draws 5, Leeds wins 1