ECUADOR LIGA PRO
16.05.2026 19:00
Estadio Bellavista
Referee: Lenin Quinonez, Ecuador
Macara
Match Timeline
Independiente del Valle
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
29'
José Luis Marrufo
Macara
🟨
43'
Juan Viacava
Independiente del Valle
45'
R. Briones · Assist: J. Viacava
Independiente del Valle
🔄
46'
J. Viacava ↔ M. Carabajal
Independiente del Valle
54'
D. Guagua · Assist: J. Espinoza
Independiente del Valle
🔄
57'
M. Miranda ↔ T. Chamba
Macara
🔄
58'
M. Tello ↔ J. Klinger
Macara
61'
D. Reasco · Assist: A. Velasco
Independiente del Valle
🔄
67'
D. Guagua ↔ A. Rodriguez
Independiente del Valle
🔄
67'
M. Perello ↔ E. Pata
Independiente del Valle
🔄
70'
F. Posse ↔ L. Ferro
Macara
🔄
70'
J. Cazares ↔ C. Caicedo
Macara
🔄
71'
R. Briones ↔ J. Sornoza
Independiente del Valle
🔄
71'
Y. Ochoa ↔ J. Lerma
Independiente del Valle
🟨
73'
Jose Klinger
Macara
🔄
83'
J. Chala ↔ T. Espinoza
Macara
🟨
89'
Arón Rodríguez
Independiente del Valle

Macara vs Independiente del Valle Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 61.4%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 78.4%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 81.9%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
61.4%
-
BTTS BTTS Yes
78.4%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
81.9%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
-
Correct Score 0-2
-
-
Probability Distribution
Macara Win 38.6%
Draw 0%
Independiente del Valle Win 61.4%
Expected Goals (xG)
Macara1.09
Independiente del Valle1.43
Recent Form (Last 5)
Macara Macara
WWDLW
16 GF / 16 GA
Independiente del Valle Independiente del Valle
WLDWL
30 GF / 20 GA
Key Stats
1.07
Average Goals Scored
1.67
1.07
Average Goals Conceded
1.11
7
BTTS Yes
9
7
Over 2.5
9
4.77
Shots on Goal
5.59

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Macara Macara 15 matches
Independiente del Valle Independiente del Valle 18 matches
Macara Statistic Independiente del Valle
5 Wins 12
4 Draws 2
6 Losses 4
16 Goals For 30
16 Goals Against 20
1.07 Avg Goals Scored 1.67
1.07 Avg Goals Conceded 1.11
7 BTTS Yes 9
10 Over 1.5 15
7 Over 2.5 9
2 Over 3.5 6
6 Clean Sheets 6
4 Failed To Score 4
4.77 Shots On Goal 5.59
13.23 Total Shots 18.65
5.38 Corners 6.53
50.4% Ball Possession 59.2%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Macara expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Independiente del Valle in 4-1-4-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Independiente del Valle having the stronger overall control. Independiente del Valle carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 1 with 31 points while Macara sit 7 on 19, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Given the broader gap between the sides, Away Win looks like the most logical direction, while the clean-sheet expectation leans toward Independiente del Valle. Independiente del Valle look sharper on recent form, and that momentum could be important in key phases of the match. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected.

Macara Analysis

Macara sit 7 with 19 points after 13 league matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 5 wins, 4 draws, and 4 losses, while the 14:12 goal ratio supports the view of good form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on Franco Posse (4 goals), F. Paz (3 goals), M. Tello (2 goals), with creative support from F. Paz (2 assists), J. Klinger (2 assists), Franco Posse (1 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. At home, they have returned 3 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses, a split that suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

Independiente del Valle Analysis

Independiente del Valle come into this fixture from a strong position, holding 1 place with 31 points after 13 matches. They have recorded 10 wins, 1 draws, and 2 losses, with a 23:13 goal return and very strong form and are on a winning streak. In attack they lean heavily on Emerson Pata (5 goals), D. Reasco (3 goals), M. Perello (3 goals), with creative support from D. Reasco (3 assists), M. Perello (2 assists), A. Rodriguez (2 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. Away from home, they have managed 5 wins, 0 draws, and 1 losses, which underlines a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In stylistic terms they continue to show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Macara won 3 times, Independiente del Valle won 9 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 14:31 from Macara's perspective. 7 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 6 matches, with an average of 3 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (100%)
Predicted formations: Macara 4-2-3-1 / Independiente del Valle 4-1-4-1
H2H summary: Macara wins 3, draws 3, Independiente del Valle wins 9

Standings

Liga Pro
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 27 22 2 3 66:28 38 68
D W W W W
2 27 14 5 8 31:26 5 47
W W L W W
3 27 13 6 8 35:27 8 45
W L D W W
4 27 12 8 7 47:25 22 44
D W D L W
5 28 12 6 10 27:22 5 42
D L W W L
6 27 10 9 8 28:22 6 39
L W D L D
7 28 9 10 9 33:34 -1 37
D W D D W
8 27 10 7 10 29:30 -1 37
L W D W W
9 27 9 9 9 27:30 -3 36
W W D D L
10 27 9 8 10 29:30 -1 35
L L W L D
11 27 9 8 10 23:32 -9 32
W L W D L
12 27 9 5 13 23:35 -12 32
L D L L L
13 27 8 6 13 31:41 -10 30
L L W D L
14 28 9 2 17 26:39 -13 29
L W L L L
15 28 7 6 15 18:29 -11 27
W L L L D
16 27 5 5 17 14:37 -23 20
W L L W L
Play-offs
Relegation Playoffs