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FRANCE › LIGUE 1
18.10.2026 18:45
FT
2 - 1
Groupama Stadium
Referee: Francois Letexier
Lyon
Match Timeline
Nice
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
10'
Niels Nkounkou
Nice
⚽
18'
Sepe Elye Wahi · Assist: Jonathan Clauss
Nice
⚽
32'
Pavel Šulc
Lyon
⚽
36'
Tanner Tessmann · Assist: Zachary Athekame
Lyon
🟨
48'
Mohamed Abdelmoneim
Nice
🔄
61'
Noah Teye Nartey ↔ Corentin Tolisso
Lyon
🔄
61'
Julien Duranville ↔ Keito Nakamura
Lyon
🟨
65'
Mohamed Amoura
Nice
🟥
70'
Keito Nakamura
Lyon
🔄
75'
Kail Boudache ↔ Felix Bacher
Lyon
🔄
81'
Mohamed Abdelmoneim ↔ Alidu Seidu
Nice
🔄
81'
Pavel Šulc ↔ Khalis Merah
Lyon
🔄
81'
Abner Vinicius ↔ Ruben Kluivert
Lyon
🔄
87'
Xavier Mandza ↔ Sofiane Diop
Nice
🔄
87'
Axel Witsel ↔ Morgan Sanson
Nice
🔄
87'
Gauthier Hein ↔ Isak Jansson
Nice
VAR
90+3'
Sepe Elye Wahi
Nice
🟨
90+4'
Sepe Elye Wahi
Nice

Lyon vs Nice Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 86.1%
Odds 1.89
BTTS
Yes
Probability 58.8%
Odds 1.62
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 70.3%
Odds 1.71
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
86.1%
1.89 ▥
BTTS Yes
58.8%
1.62 ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
70.3%
1.71 ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
1.17 ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
3.00 ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
8.50 ▥
Probability Distribution
Lyon Win 86.1%
Draw 5.3%
Nice Win 8.7%
Expected Goals (xG)
Lyon1.56
Nice1.19
Recent Form (Last 5)
Lyon Lyon
WWDLW
37 GF / 24 GA
Nice Nice
WLDWL
12 GF / 9 GA
Key Stats
2.06
Average Goals Scored
1.09
1.33
Average Goals Conceded
0.82
11
BTTS Yes
3
12
Over 2.5
5
5.83
Shots on Goal
3.5

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Lyon Lyon 18 matches
Nice Nice 11 matches
Lyon Statistic Nice
10 Wins 4
3 Draws 4
5 Losses 3
37 Goals For 12
24 Goals Against 9
2.06 Avg Goals Scored 1.09
1.33 Avg Goals Conceded 0.82
11 BTTS Yes 3
17 Over 1.5 7
12 Over 2.5 5
6 Over 3.5 1
5 Clean Sheets 5
3 Failed To Score 6
5.83 Shots On Goal 3.5
13.58 Total Shots 11.67
4.92 Corners 5.17
51.5% Ball Possession 55%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by Lyon's more proactive style and Nice's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Lyon expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Nice in 3-4-2-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Nice having the stronger overall control. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Lyon arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 3 with 11 points compared to Nice in 15 on 5, which underlines the gap in season consistency. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Nice.

Lyon Analysis

Placed 3 with 11 points from 6 outings, Lyon continue to operate from a strong competitive position. Across the campaign, they have posted 3 wins, 2 draws, and 1 losses, while the 11:4 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on E. Nuamah (3 goals), Z. Athekame (2 goals), C. Tolisso (1 goals), with creative support from P. Šulc (3 assists), Z. Athekame (2 assists), E. Nuamah (1 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. At home, their split return of 2 wins, 1 draws, and 0 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football.

Nice Analysis

Nice approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 15 with 5 points from 5 matches. Across the season they have posted 1 wins, 2 draws, and 2 defeats, and the 3:6 goal record continues to suggest poor form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on E. Wahi (1 goals), M. Amoura (1 goals), with creative support from G. Hein (1 assists), S. Diop (1 assists), while at the back they have been very solid. Away from home, they have returned 0 wins, 0 draws, and 2 losses, which indicates a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Lyon won 8 times, Nice won 5 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 27:18 from Lyon's perspective. 8 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 9 matches, with an average of 3 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (94.7%)
Predicted formations: Lyon 4-2-3-1 / Nice 3-4-2-1
Missing players: Lyon 3, Nice 5
H2H summary: Lyon wins 8, draws 2, Nice wins 5

Standings

Ligue 1
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 7 4 2 1 14:9 5 14
W W W W L
2 7 4 2 1 10:5 5 14
D W L W W
3 6 4 2 0 10:5 5 14
D W D W W
4 6 4 1 1 12:10 2 13
W L W W W
5
Lyon Home
6 3 2 1 11:4 7 11
L W D W D
6 6 3 2 1 8:4 4 11
L W D W W
7 7 3 1 3 14:11 3 10
W W L D L
8 7 2 3 2 13:10 3 9
D W L L W
9 7 2 3 2 12:11 1 9
W D W D L
10 6 2 2 2 6:6 0 8
W L D W L
11
Nice Away
6 2 2 2 5:7 -2 8
W W L D L
12 7 2 1 4 12:15 -3 7
L L L D W
13 6 2 1 3 7:10 -3 7
L W D L W
14 6 2 0 4 9:8 1 6
W L L L L
15 7 1 3 3 10:15 -5 6
L L W D D
16 6 2 0 4 8:16 -8 6
L W W L L
17 7 1 1 5 5:16 -11 4
L L L L L
18 6 0 2 4 4:8 -4 2
L L D L D
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