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ENGLAND › LEAGUE ONE
19.09.2026 14:00
Kenilworth Road
Referee: R. Martin
Luton
Match Timeline
Bradford
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
⚽
4'
Bobby Pointon · Assist: Kayden Jackson
Bradford
🟨
46'
Callum Connolly
Bradford
🟨
60'
Daniel Gore
Luton
🔄
62'
Jake Beesley ↔ Nick Powell
Bradford
🔄
62'
Josh Neufville ↔ Kieran Morgan
Bradford
🔄
66'
Kasey Palmer ↔ Jordan Clark
Luton
🟨
67'
Antoni Sarcevic
Bradford
🟨
72'
Kieran Morgan
Bradford
🔄
75'
Daniel Gore ↔ Nahki Wells
Luton
🔄
75'
Emilio Lawrence ↔ Isaiah Jones
Luton
🔄
75'
Jake Richards ↔ Jamie Donley
Luton
🟨
83'
Harrison Ashby
Luton
🔄
84'
Hakeem Odofin ↔ Gideon Kodua
Luton
🔄
84'
Bobby Pointon ↔ Corey O'Keeffe
Bradford
🔄
84'
Aden Baldwin ↔ Macauley Gillesphey
Bradford
🟨
90+5'
Harrison Ashby
Luton
🟥
90+5'
Harrison Ashby
Luton
🟨
90+4'
Macauley Gillesphey
Bradford

Luton vs Bradford Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away or Draw
Probability 59.5%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 67.1%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 61.1%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away or Draw
59.5%
- ▥
BTTS Yes
67.1%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
61.1%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
- ▥
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
- ▥
Correct Score 1-2
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Luton Win 40.5%
Draw 18.9%
Bradford Win 40.7%
Expected Goals (xG)
Luton1.63
Bradford1.79
Recent Form (Last 5)
Luton Luton
WWDLW
21 GF / 16 GA
Bradford Bradford
WLDWL
23 GF / 11 GA
Key Stats
2.1
Average Goals Scored
1.92
1.6
Average Goals Conceded
0.92
6
BTTS Yes
5
6
Over 2.5
6
4.5
Shots on Goal
4

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Luton Luton 10 matches
Bradford Bradford 12 matches
Luton Statistic Bradford
4 Wins 8
3 Draws 1
3 Losses 3
21 Goals For 23
16 Goals Against 11
2.1 Avg Goals Scored 1.92
1.6 Avg Goals Conceded 0.92
6 BTTS Yes 5
9 Over 1.5 8
6 Over 2.5 6
5 Over 3.5 4
3 Clean Sheets 5
1 Failed To Score 2
4.5 Shots On Goal 4
12.83 Total Shots 11.17
5 Corners 7
57% Ball Possession 51.5%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

Looking at the broader profile of both teams, this encounter highlights Bradford's more proactive style and Luton's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Bradford. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Luton expected to line up in 4-1-4-1 and Bradford in 3-4-2-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Bradford having the stronger overall control. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected.

Luton Analysis

From their first 6 matches, Luton have collected 8 points and now occupy 8 place in the table. Their overall return of 2 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses with goals at 12:13 reflects poor form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by N. Wells (4 goals), C. Marshall (2 goals), J. Donley (1 goals), with creative support from K. Palmer (2 assists), J. Donley (1 assists), G. Kodua (1 assists), while defensively they have appeared very solid. At home, the record of 1 wins, 2 draws, and 0 losses points toward a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

Bradford Analysis

Operating from 5 place with 9 points from 5 games, Bradford bring one of the stronger season profiles into this match. With 3 wins, 0 draws, and 2 defeats plus a goal balance of 5:4, they continue to show good form over their recent run. Their attacking quality is driven by A. Baldwin (1 goals), A. Sarcevic (1 goals), with creative support from M. Pennington (1 assists), J. Beesley (1 assists), and at the back they have appeared very solid. Away from home, the split of 1 wins, 0 draws, and 1 losses supports the view of a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their football identity still points toward balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 4 head-to-head meetings, Luton won 3 times, Bradford won 1 times, while 0 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 8:3 from Luton's perspective. 3 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 2 matches, with an average of 2.75 goals per game.

1X2: Away or Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (81.1%)
Predicted formations: Luton 4-1-4-1 / Bradford 3-4-2-1
H2H summary: Luton wins 3, draws 0, Bradford wins 1

Standings

League One
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 6 1 3 18:12 6 19
W W L W W
2 9 5 2 2 8:5 3 17
D D W W W
3 9 5 1 3 20:11 9 16
W W D L W
4 9 4 4 1 16:9 7 16
D W L D D
5 9 4 4 1 14:11 3 16
W D D W D
6 9 4 3 2 22:11 11 15
W D D W L
7 8 4 3 1 16:9 7 15
D W D W W
8 8 4 3 1 15:8 7 15
D D D W W
9 8 3 3 2 12:8 4 12
W L W W D
10 10 3 3 4 14:16 -2 12
L L W D L
11 9 3 3 3 13:15 -2 12
D W D D L
12 9 3 3 3 7:10 -3 12
L D D W W
13 9 3 2 4 13:11 2 11
D L W L D
14
Luton Home
8 3 2 3 16:15 1 11
W L L D W
15 9 2 4 3 14:20 -6 10
L D W W D
16 8 2 3 3 9:9 0 9
W W L L D
17 8 2 3 3 10:14 -4 9
L D W L W
18 8 2 2 4 13:14 -1 8
L L D L L
19 8 2 2 4 8:15 -7 8
L D L L W
20 9 2 2 5 7:14 -7 8
W L L D L
21 8 2 2 4 9:20 -11 8
L W D L L
22 8 1 4 3 8:11 -3 7
L L L D D
23 8 0 6 2 9:15 -6 6
L D D D L
24 8 1 1 6 5:13 -8 4
L L D L W
Promotion - Championship
Promotion - League One (Play Offs)
Relegation - League Two