UGANDA PREMIER LEAGUE
--.--.---- --:--
Lugazi FC Stadium
Lugazi
Match Timeline
Kitara
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
32'
P. Kaddu
Kitara
82'
P. Busolo
Lugazi
🟥
88'
R. Ayiko
Lugazi
90'
M. Shaban
Kitara

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 77.7%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 69.2%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 64.8%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
77.7%
-
BTTS BTTS No
69.2%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
64.8%
-
Probability Distribution
Lugazi Win 12.9%
Draw 9.5%
Kitara Win 77.7%
Expected Goals (xG)
Lugazi0.65
Kitara1.34
Recent Form (Last 5)
Lugazi Lugazi
WWDLW
16 GF / 32 GA
Kitara Kitara
WLDWL
31 GF / 14 GA
Key Stats
0.67
Average Goals Scored
1.35
1.33
Average Goals Conceded
0.61
8
BTTS Yes
7
10
Over 2.5
6
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Lugazi Lugazi 24 matches
Kitara Kitara 23 matches
Lugazi Statistic Kitara
4 Wins 13
8 Draws 6
12 Losses 4
16 Goals For 31
32 Goals Against 14
0.67 Avg Goals Scored 1.35
1.33 Avg Goals Conceded 0.61
8 BTTS Yes 7
14 Over 1.5 11
10 Over 2.5 6
3 Over 3.5 4
7 Clean Sheets 12
15 Failed To Score 6
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around Kitara's more proactive style and Lugazi's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Kitara. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Lugazi have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Kitara carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 4 with 48 points while Lugazi sit 13 on 20, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Kitara having the stronger overall control.

Lugazi Analysis

With 20 points from 24 games and a place of 13, Lugazi still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Across the season they have posted 4 wins, 8 draws, and 12 defeats, and the 16:31 goal record continues to suggest poor form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on F. Mungudit (4 goals), A. Kalanzi (3 goals), A. Mulindi (2 goals), while at the back they have been fairly stable. At home, the split record of 4 wins, 4 draws, and 3 losses points to a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

Kitara Analysis

Kitara come into this match from a strong league position, sitting 4 with 48 points from 24 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 14 wins, 6 draws, and 4 losses, while the 34:13 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on P. Kaddu (7 goals), G. Ssenkaaba (4 goals), G. Wahab (4 goals), and defensively they have been very solid. Away from home, their split return of 5 wins, 3 draws, and 3 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 4 head-to-head meetings, Lugazi won 0 times, Kitara won 3 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 1:9 from Lugazi's perspective. 3 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 1 matches, with an average of 2.5 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (90.6%)
H2H summary: Lugazi wins 0, draws 1, Kitara wins 3
Last matches: Lugazi
23.05.26
Pre
Lugazi
Maroons
0
1
L
19.05.26
Pre
Lugazi
Express
0
0
D
12.05.26
Pre
Lugazi
BUL
0
0
D
06.05.26
Pre
Lugazi
Mbarara City
0
1
L
29.04.26
Pre
Lugazi
Buhimba Saints
2
0
W
22.04.26
Pre
Lugazi
SC Villa
0
1
L
15.04.26
Pre
Lugazi
Calvary
0
0
D
10.04.26
Pre
Lugazi
Entebbe UPPC
1
1
D
14.03.26
Pre
Lugazi
KCCA
0
3
L
11.03.26
Pre
Lugazi
URA
0
1
L
06.03.26
Pre
Lugazi
NEC
0
2
L
03.03.26
Pre
Lugazi
Vipers
0
3
L
18.02.26
Pre
Lugazi
UPDF
1
0
W
12.02.26
Pre
Lugazi
Police
1
2
L
31.01.26
Pre
Lugazi
SC Villa
0
0
D
27.01.26
Pre
Lugazi
BUL
2
1
W
24.01.26
Pre
Lugazi
Mbarara City
0
0
D
07.01.26
Pre
Lugazi
NEC
0
1
L
17.12.25
Pre
Lugazi
Vipers
1
2
L
10.12.25
Pre
Lugazi
Police
1
1
D
Last matches: Kitara
23.05.26
Pre
Kitara
Police
2
2
D
19.05.26
Pre
Kitara
BUL
1
1
D
12.05.26
Pre
Kitara
Express
2
3
L
09.05.26
Pre
Kitara
NEC
0
1
L
30.04.26
Pre
Kitara
SC Villa
2
0
W
22.04.26
Pre
Kitara
Calvary
0
0
D
17.04.26
Pre
Kitara
KCCA
0
1
L
10.04.26
Pre
Kitara
Vipers
0
0
D
13.03.26
Pre
Kitara
Buhimba Saints
4
0
W
10.03.26
Pre
Kitara
Mbarara City
1
0
W
06.03.26
Pre
Kitara
UPDF
1
1
D
03.03.26
Pre
Kitara
Entebbe UPPC
2
0
W
19.02.26
Pre
Kitara
URA
1
1
D
12.02.26
Pre
Kitara
Maroons
1
0
W
31.01.26
Pre
Kitara
Calvary
1
0
W
28.01.26
Pre
Kitara
Express
1
0
W
24.01.26
Pre
Kitara
NEC
3
3
D
07.01.26
Pre
Kitara
UPDF
2
1
W
18.12.25
Pre
Kitara
Entebbe UPPC
0
1
L
12.12.25
Pre
Kitara
Maroons
2
0
W
H2H: Lugazi vs Kitara
25.04.26
H2H
Lugazi
Kitara
1
2
L
30.10.25
H2H
Kitara
Lugazi
4
0
L
15.04.25
H2H
Kitara
Lugazi
0
0
D
14.09.24
H2H
Lugazi
Kitara
0
3
L
Last matches: Lugazi
23.05.26
Pre
Lugazi
Maroons
0
1
L
06.05.26
Pre
Lugazi
Mbarara City
0
1
L
22.04.26
Pre
Lugazi
SC Villa
0
1
L
10.04.26
Pre
Lugazi
Entebbe UPPC
1
1
D
14.03.26
Pre
Lugazi
KCCA
0
3
L
06.03.26
Pre
Lugazi
NEC
0
2
L
18.02.26
Pre
Lugazi
UPDF
1
0
W
27.01.26
Pre
Lugazi
BUL
2
1
W
17.12.25
Pre
Lugazi
Vipers
1
2
L
10.12.25
Pre
Lugazi
Police
1
1
D
20.11.25
Pre
Lugazi
Express
0
0
D
08.11.25
Pre
Lugazi
Buhimba Saints
5
2
W
22.10.25
Pre
Lugazi
URA
0
0
D
26.09.25
Pre
Lugazi
Calvary
3
1
W
H2H at home: Lugazi
25.04.26
H2H
Lugazi
Kitara
1
2
L
14.09.24
H2H
Lugazi
Kitara
0
3
L
Last matches: Kitara
19.05.26
Pre
Kitara
BUL
1
1
D
12.05.26
Pre
Kitara
Express
2
3
L
17.04.26
Pre
Kitara
KCCA
0
1
L
10.04.26
Pre
Kitara
Vipers
0
0
D
10.03.26
Pre
Kitara
Mbarara City
1
0
W
06.03.26
Pre
Kitara
UPDF
1
1
D
12.02.26
Pre
Kitara
Maroons
1
0
W
31.01.26
Pre
Kitara
Calvary
1
0
W
24.01.26
Pre
Kitara
NEC
3
3
D
18.12.25
Pre
Kitara
Entebbe UPPC
0
1
L
04.12.25
Pre
Kitara
URA
1
0
W
27.11.25
Pre
Kitara
Police
2
1
W
06.11.25
Pre
Kitara
SC Villa
0
1
L
16.10.25
Pre
Kitara
Buhimba Saints
0
1
L
H2H away: Kitara
25.04.26
H2H
Lugazi
Kitara
1
2
W
14.09.24
H2H
Lugazi
Kitara
0
3
W

Standings

Premier League
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 30 19 10 1 55:17 38 67
W W D D D
2 30 19 5 6 46:22 24 62
W D W W D
3 30 18 7 5 47:17 30 61
W W W D L
4 30 16 8 6 43:22 21 56
D D L L W
5 30 14 9 7 30:20 10 51
W D D W W
6 30 13 12 5 31:22 9 51
L L W W W
7 30 13 8 9 42:35 7 47
D D D L W
8 30 9 11 10 26:27 -1 38
W L D L D
9 30 9 10 11 30:33 -3 37
L D D D L
10 30 9 10 11 28:31 -3 37
L D W W L
11 30 5 16 9 27:30 -3 31
W D D D D
12 30 6 9 15 26:46 -20 27
L W L W W
13 30 5 10 15 19:36 -17 25
L D D L W
14 30 5 7 18 24:41 -17 22
L D L L L
15 30 4 9 17 14:39 -25 21
W D D W L
16 30 4 3 23 16:66 -50 15
L L L L L
Promotion - CAF Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - CAF Confederation Cup (Qualification)
Relegation - Big League