BULGARIA FIRST LEAGUE
--.--.---- --:--
Huvepharma Arena
Referee: S. Arsov
Ludogorets
Match Timeline
CSKA Sofia
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🔄
46'
L. Dellova ↔ F. Rodriguez
CSKA Sofia
🔄
58'
A. Martino ↔ A. Yordanov
CSKA Sofia
🔄
58'
A. Piedrahita ↔ I. Pittas
CSKA Sofia
🔄
65'
D. Duarte ↔ I. Yordanov
Ludogorets
🔄
65'
F. Kaloc ↔ I. Chochev
Ludogorets
🟨
72'
Facundo Rodríguez
CSKA Sofia
🔄
77'
K. Duah ↔ E. Bile
Ludogorets
🟨
83'
Petar Stanić
Ludogorets
🔄
85'
Leo Pereira ↔ V. Kaymakanov
CSKA Sofia
🔄
88'
E. Kurtulus ↔ G. Terziev
Ludogorets
🟨
90+6'
Erick Marcus
Ludogorets
🔄
90+3'
B. Jordao ↔ A. Lapena
CSKA Sofia
90'
I. Chochev · Assist: E. Bile
Ludogorets

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 82.7%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 45.3%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 77.9%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
82.7%
-
BTTS BTTS No
45.3%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
77.9%
-
Corners O/U Under 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
-
Correct Score 0-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Ludogorets Win 44.2%
Draw 17.3%
CSKA Sofia Win 38.5%
Expected Goals (xG)
Ludogorets1.29
CSKA Sofia1.2
Recent Form (Last 5)
Ludogorets Ludogorets
WWDLW
85 GF / 52 GA
CSKA Sofia CSKA Sofia
WLDWL
47 GF / 29 GA
Key Stats
1.6
Average Goals Scored
1.34
0.98
Average Goals Conceded
0.83
24
BTTS Yes
14
27
Over 2.5
11
3.86
Shots on Goal
3.19

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Ludogorets Ludogorets 53 matches
CSKA Sofia CSKA Sofia 35 matches
Ludogorets Statistic CSKA Sofia
25 Wins 18
14 Draws 9
14 Losses 8
85 Goals For 47
52 Goals Against 29
1.6 Avg Goals Scored 1.34
0.98 Avg Goals Conceded 0.83
24 BTTS Yes 14
37 Over 1.5 23
27 Over 2.5 11
13 Over 3.5 7
22 Clean Sheets 14
14 Failed To Score 9
3.86 Shots On Goal 3.19
11.44 Total Shots 11.06
4.4 Corners 4.19
42.1% Ball Possession 40.2%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

There is very little separating these two teams on paper, and two sides with a fairly similar football identity points toward a competitive game. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. Ludogorets have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Ludogorets expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and CSKA Sofia in 4-1-4-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward CSKA Sofia having the stronger overall control. Even if this develops into a close game, the analytical lean still edges toward Away Win, with a cautious clean-sheet angle toward CSKA Sofia. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.This game has the potential to be open, with both sides capable of creating several scoring chances.

Ludogorets Analysis

Ludogorets approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 3 with 64 points from 35 matches. Their record of 18 wins, 10 draws, and 7 losses, together with goals at 60:25, reflects poor form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through I. Chochev (16 goals), P. Stanic (9 goals), K. Duah (8 goals), with creative support from P. Stanic (10 assists), I. Chochev (5 assists), Erick Marcus (5 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been very solid. At home, they have returned 9 wins, 6 draws, and 2 losses, which indicates a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Stylistically, they tend to play with balanced attacking football.

CSKA Sofia Analysis

CSKA Sofia come into this match from a strong league position, sitting 4 with 63 points from 35 matches. The record of 18 wins, 9 draws, and 8 defeats, together with a 47:29 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through I. Pittas (8 goals), J. Eto'o (4 goals), Mohamed Brahimi (4 goals), with creative support from J. Eto'o (10 assists), Pastor (5 assists), I. Pittas (2 assists), while at the back they have looked fairly stable. Away from home, their split return of 7 wins, 4 draws, and 6 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Ludogorets won 9 times, CSKA Sofia won 2 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 21:9 from Ludogorets's perspective. 7 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 5 matches, with an average of 2 goals per game.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (82.7%)
Predicted formations: Ludogorets 4-2-3-1 / CSKA Sofia 4-1-4-1
H2H summary: Ludogorets wins 9, draws 4, CSKA Sofia wins 2

Lineups

Ludogorets
Formation
CSKA Sofia
H. Bonmann
H. Bonmann
I. Nachmias
I. Nachmias
E. Kurtulus
E. Kurtulus
A. Nedyalkov
A. Nedyalkov
Vinicius Nogueira
Vinicius Nogueira
F. Kaloc
F. Kaloc
D. Duarte
D. Duarte
Erick Marcus
Erick Marcus
P. Stanic
P. Stanic
B. Tekpetey
B. Tekpetey
K. Duah
K. Duah
F. Lapoukhov
F. Lapoukhov
Pastor
Pastor
T. Ivanov
T. Ivanov
L. Dellova
L. Dellova
A. Martino
A. Martino
P. Panayotov
P. Panayotov
B. Jordao
B. Jordao
M. Ebong
M. Ebong
A. Piedrahita
A. Piedrahita
L. Godoy
L. Godoy
Leo Pereira
Leo Pereira
Ludogorets 4-2-3-1
Starting XI
39
H. Bonmann
G
55
I. Nachmias
D
15
E. Kurtulus
↓ 88'
D
3
A. Nedyalkov
D
27
Vinicius Nogueira
D
26
F. Kaloc
↓ 65'
M
23
D. Duarte
↓ 65'
M
77
Erick Marcus
🟨 90+6'
M
14
P. Stanic
🟨 83'
M
37
B. Tekpetey
M
9
K. Duah
↓ 77'
F
Substitutes
42
S. Shishkov
D
82
I. Yordanov
↑ 65'
M
72
E. Syrov
29
E. Bile
🎯 90' ↑ 77'
F
18
I. Chochev
⚽ 90' ↑ 65'
M
1
S. Padt
G
5
G. Terziev
↑ 88'
D
7
A. Salido Tajero
F
34
N. Nikolov
CSKA Sofia 4-3-3
Starting XI
21
F. Lapoukhov
2
Pastor
D
14
T. Ivanov
D
5
L. Dellova
↓ 46'
D
17
A. Martino
↓ 58'
D
30
P. Panayotov
M
6
B. Jordao
↓ 90+3'
M
10
M. Ebong
M
77
A. Piedrahita
↓ 58'
M
9
L. Godoy
F
38
Leo Pereira
↓ 85'
M
Substitutes
3
A. Yordanov
↑ 58'
D
28
I. Pittas
↑ 58'
F
32
F. Rodriguez
↑ 46' 🟨 72'
D
34
V. Kaymakanov
↑ 85'
M
4
A. Lapena
↑ 90+3'
D
25
D. Evtimov
G
73
I. Iliev
M
19
I. Turitsov
D
94
I. Solet
M
Last matches: Ludogorets
23.07.26
UEF
Ludogorets
Hapoel Tel Aviv
0
2
L
18.07.26
Fir
Ludogorets
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
1
0
W
10.07.26
Fri
Ludogorets
Teuta Durrës
1
0
W
10.07.26
Fri
Ludogorets
Septemvri Sofia
1
0
W
04.07.26
Fri
Ludogorets
FC Botosani
2
2
D
26.06.26
Fri
Ludogorets
Etar Veliko Tarnovo
7
4
W
29.05.26
Fir
Ludogorets
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
0
0
D
16.05.26
Fir
Ludogorets
CSKA 1948
0
1
L
13.05.26
Fir
Ludogorets
Levski Sofia
1
1
D
09.05.26
Fir
Ludogorets
Levski Sofia
1
0
W
03.05.26
Fir
Ludogorets
CSKA Sofia
0
1
L
25.04.26
Fir
Ludogorets
CSKA 1948
1
2
L
15.04.26
Fir
Ludogorets
Arda Kardzhali
0
1
L
09.04.26
Fir
Ludogorets
Cherno More Varna
0
0
D
05.04.26
Fir
Ludogorets
CSKA 1948
3
0
W
29.03.26
Fri
Ludogorets
Farul Constanta
3
2
W
19.03.26
Fir
Ludogorets
Spartak Varna
5
1
W
14.03.26
Fir
Ludogorets
CSKA Sofia
3
0
W
09.03.26
Fir
Ludogorets
Montana
3
0
W
05.03.26
Fir
Ludogorets
Levski Sofia
1
0
W
Last matches: CSKA Sofia
23.07.26
UEF
CSKA Sofia
Qarabag
0
0
D
20.07.26
Fir
CSKA Sofia
Slavia Sofia
0
0
D
16.07.26
UEF
CSKA Sofia
Derry City
2
1
W
09.07.26
UEF
CSKA Sofia
Derry City
3
2
W
03.07.26
Fri
CSKA Sofia
Marek
3
0
W
28.06.26
Fri
CSKA Sofia
Odra Opole
3
2
W
24.06.26
Fri
CSKA Sofia
Polessya
0
4
L
20.06.26
Fri
CSKA Sofia
Brinje-Grosuplje
2
1
W
16.05.26
Fir
CSKA Sofia
Levski Sofia
0
2
L
13.05.26
Fir
CSKA Sofia
CSKA 1948
1
1
D
08.05.26
Fir
CSKA Sofia
CSKA 1948
1
0
W
03.05.26
Fir
CSKA Sofia
Ludogorets
1
0
W
25.04.26
Fir
CSKA Sofia
Levski Sofia
1
3
L
13.04.26
Fir
CSKA Sofia
Levski Sofia
1
1
D
08.04.26
Fir
CSKA Sofia
Montana
1
0
W
04.04.26
Fir
CSKA Sofia
Beroe
3
0
W
22.03.26
Fir
CSKA Sofia
Dobrudzha
2
0
W
14.03.26
Fir
CSKA Sofia
Ludogorets
0
3
L
08.03.26
Fir
CSKA Sofia
Lokomotiv Sofia
2
0
W
04.03.26
Fir
CSKA Sofia
Botev Vratsa
1
0
W
H2H: Ludogorets vs CSKA Sofia
25.05.26
H2H
Ludogorets
CSKA Sofia
1
0
W
03.05.26
H2H
CSKA Sofia
Ludogorets
1
0
L
29.04.26
H2H
CSKA Sofia
Ludogorets
0
0
D
21.04.26
H2H
Ludogorets
CSKA Sofia
1
2
L
14.03.26
H2H
Ludogorets
CSKA Sofia
3
0
W
05.10.25
H2H
CSKA Sofia
Ludogorets
0
0
D
22.05.25
H2H
Ludogorets
CSKA Sofia
1
0
W
24.11.24
H2H
CSKA Sofia
Ludogorets
2
2
D
21.07.24
H2H
Ludogorets
CSKA Sofia
1
0
W
11.05.24
H2H
Ludogorets
CSKA Sofia
3
1
W
10.12.23
H2H
CSKA Sofia
Ludogorets
0
1
W
13.08.23
H2H
Ludogorets
CSKA Sofia
3
0
W
20.05.23
H2H
Ludogorets
CSKA Sofia
2
2
D
30.04.23
H2H
CSKA Sofia
Ludogorets
0
1
W
10.10.22
H2H
Ludogorets
CSKA Sofia
2
1
W
Last matches: Ludogorets
18.07.26
Fir
Ludogorets
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
1
0
W
10.07.26
Fri
Ludogorets
Teuta Durrës
1
0
W
10.07.26
Fri
Ludogorets
Septemvri Sofia
1
0
W
04.07.26
Fri
Ludogorets
FC Botosani
2
2
D
26.06.26
Fri
Ludogorets
Etar Veliko Tarnovo
7
4
W
29.05.26
Fir
Ludogorets
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
0
0
D
13.05.26
Fir
Ludogorets
Levski Sofia
1
1
D
25.04.26
Fir
Ludogorets
CSKA 1948
1
2
L
09.04.26
Fir
Ludogorets
Cherno More Varna
0
0
D
05.04.26
Fir
Ludogorets
CSKA 1948
3
0
W
29.03.26
Fri
Ludogorets
Farul Constanta
3
2
W
14.03.26
Fir
Ludogorets
CSKA Sofia
3
0
W
05.03.26
Fir
Ludogorets
Levski Sofia
1
0
W
02.03.26
Fir
Ludogorets
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
1
1
D
19.02.26
UEF
Ludogorets
Ferencvarosi TC
2
1
W
15.02.26
Fir
Ludogorets
Beroe
2
1
W
29.01.26
UEF
Ludogorets
Nice
1
0
W
11.12.25
UEF
Ludogorets
PAOK
3
3
D
08.12.25
Fir
Ludogorets
Slavia Sofia
1
1
D
30.11.25
Fir
Ludogorets
Botev Vratsa
2
0
W
H2H at home: Ludogorets
25.05.26
H2H
Ludogorets
CSKA Sofia
1
0
W
21.04.26
H2H
Ludogorets
CSKA Sofia
1
2
L
14.03.26
H2H
Ludogorets
CSKA Sofia
3
0
W
22.05.25
H2H
Ludogorets
CSKA Sofia
1
0
W
21.07.24
H2H
Ludogorets
CSKA Sofia
1
0
W
11.05.24
H2H
Ludogorets
CSKA Sofia
3
1
W
13.08.23
H2H
Ludogorets
CSKA Sofia
3
0
W
20.05.23
H2H
Ludogorets
CSKA Sofia
2
2
D
10.10.22
H2H
Ludogorets
CSKA Sofia
2
1
W
Last matches: CSKA Sofia
23.07.26
UEF
CSKA Sofia
Qarabag
0
0
D
20.07.26
Fir
CSKA Sofia
Slavia Sofia
0
0
D
16.07.26
UEF
CSKA Sofia
Derry City
2
1
W
28.06.26
Fri
CSKA Sofia
Odra Opole
3
2
W
20.06.26
Fri
CSKA Sofia
Brinje-Grosuplje
2
1
W
16.05.26
Fir
CSKA Sofia
Levski Sofia
0
2
L
08.05.26
Fir
CSKA Sofia
CSKA 1948
1
0
W
08.04.26
Fir
CSKA Sofia
Montana
1
0
W
04.04.26
Fir
CSKA Sofia
Beroe
3
0
W
14.03.26
Fir
CSKA Sofia
Ludogorets
0
3
L
28.02.26
Fir
CSKA Sofia
Septemvri Sofia
0
2
L
14.02.26
Fir
CSKA Sofia
CSKA 1948
2
0
W
06.12.25
Fir
CSKA Sofia
Cherno More Varna
0
2
L
29.11.25
Fir
CSKA Sofia
Spartak Varna
4
0
W
08.11.25
Fir
CSKA Sofia
Levski Sofia
1
0
W
19.10.25
Fir
CSKA Sofia
Dobrudzha
1
0
W
27.09.25
Fir
CSKA Sofia
Lokomotiv Sofia
1
1
D
22.09.25
Fir
CSKA Sofia
Botev Vratsa
1
1
D
18.09.25
Fir
CSKA Sofia
Arda Kardzhali
0
1
L
30.08.25
Fir
CSKA Sofia
Slavia Sofia
2
2
D
H2H away: CSKA Sofia
25.05.26
H2H
Ludogorets
CSKA Sofia
1
0
L
21.04.26
H2H
Ludogorets
CSKA Sofia
1
2
W
14.03.26
H2H
Ludogorets
CSKA Sofia
3
0
L
22.05.25
H2H
Ludogorets
CSKA Sofia
1
0
L
21.07.24
H2H
Ludogorets
CSKA Sofia
1
0
L
11.05.24
H2H
Ludogorets
CSKA Sofia
3
1
L
13.08.23
H2H
Ludogorets
CSKA Sofia
3
0
L
20.05.23
H2H
Ludogorets
CSKA Sofia
2
2
D
10.10.22
H2H
Ludogorets
CSKA Sofia
2
1
L

Standings

A PFG: Championship Group
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 36 25 6 5 71:25 46 81
D W D L W
2 36 20 7 9 54:35 19 67
D W D L L
3 36 19 10 7 61:25 36 67
W L D W L
4 36 18 9 9 47:30 17 63
L L D W W
Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Promotion - efbet League (Conference League - Play Offs)
Promotion - Europa League (Qualification)