SCOTLAND PREMIERSHIP
--.--.---- --:--
The Home of the Set Fare Arena
Referee: R. Lee
Livingston
Match Timeline
Kilmarnock
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
19'
S. May · Assist: B. McKay
Livingston
24'
J. Hugill · Assist: D. Thompson
Kilmarnock
🟨
31'
Emmanuel Danso
Livingston
34'
N. Clescenco · Assist: G. Kiltie
Kilmarnock
🟨
38'
Dominic Thompson
Kilmarnock
🔄
46'
M. Schjonning-Larsen ↔ B. Lyons
Kilmarnock
53'
F. Curtis · Assist: D. Thompson
Kilmarnock
🔄
56'
B. McKay ↔ J. Zimmerman
Livingston
🔄
56'
R. Muirhead ↔ J. Nouble
Livingston
🔄
56'
E. Danso ↔ A. Denholm
Livingston
58'
J. Hugill · Assist: R. Deas
Kilmarnock
🔄
62'
A. Tshibola ↔ J. Thomson
Kilmarnock
🔄
62'
G. Stanger ↔ E. Schilte-Brown
Kilmarnock
🔄
66'
L. Smith ↔ S. Culbert
Livingston
🔄
66'
N. Clescenco ↔ D. Watson
Kilmarnock
🟨
70'
Bradley Lyons
Kilmarnock
🔄
84'
D. Thompson ↔ E. Bowie
Kilmarnock
🔄
85'
M. Tait ↔ B. Fati
Livingston

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 79.9%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 73.9%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 87.6%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
79.9%
-
BTTS BTTS Yes
73.9%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
87.6%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Livingston Win 36.1%
Draw 20.1%
Kilmarnock Win 43.8%
Expected Goals (xG)
Livingston1.35
Kilmarnock1.51
Recent Form (Last 5)
Livingston Livingston
WWDLW
39 GF / 71 GA
Kilmarnock Kilmarnock
WLDWL
46 GF / 67 GA
Key Stats
1.05
Average Goals Scored
1.24
1.92
Average Goals Conceded
1.81
24
BTTS Yes
20
23
Over 2.5
24
3.3
Shots on Goal
3.95

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Livingston Livingston 37 matches
Kilmarnock Kilmarnock 37 matches
Livingston Statistic Kilmarnock
2 Wins 9
15 Draws 10
20 Losses 18
39 Goals For 46
71 Goals Against 67
1.05 Avg Goals Scored 1.24
1.92 Avg Goals Conceded 1.81
24 BTTS Yes 20
31 Over 1.5 31
23 Over 2.5 24
14 Over 3.5 15
4 Clean Sheets 9
12 Failed To Score 10
3.3 Shots On Goal 3.95
9.84 Total Shots 11.27
4.62 Corners 4.41
44.8% Ball Possession 42.3%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match looks like a contest between two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Livingston expected to line up in 3-4-2-1 and Kilmarnock in 4-3-3, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Kilmarnock having the stronger overall control. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Kilmarnock. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest.

Livingston Analysis

From their first 36 matches, Livingston have collected 20 points and now occupy 6 place in the table. Across the campaign, they have posted 2 wins, 14 draws, and 20 losses, while the 39:71 goal ratio supports the view of poor form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on L. Smith (7 goals), Jeremy Bokila (5 goals), R. Muirhead (5 goals), with creative support from Cristian Montano (3 assists), M. Tait (3 assists), L. Smith (2 assists), and defensively they have been quite vulnerable. At home, they have returned 1 wins, 8 draws, and 8 losses, a split that suggests a weak split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms, they tend to show a more cautious and defensive approach.

Kilmarnock Analysis

Placed 4 with 34 points from 36 outings, Kilmarnock continue to operate from a strong competitive position. Their overall return of 8 wins, 10 draws, and 18 losses with goals at 43:66 reflects mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by Tyreece John-Jules (8 goals), Bruce Anderson (4 goals), G. Kiltie (4 goals), with creative support from G. Kiltie (6 assists), Tyreece John-Jules (2 assists), Bruce Anderson (2 assists), while defensively they have appeared quite vulnerable. Away from home, the record of 2 wins, 6 draws, and 10 losses points toward a weak split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader style still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Livingston won 5 times, Kilmarnock won 7 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 17:23 from Livingston's perspective. 7 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 8 matches, with an average of 2.67 goals per game.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (79.9%)
Predicted formations: Livingston 3-4-2-1 / Kilmarnock 4-3-3
H2H summary: Livingston wins 5, draws 3, Kilmarnock wins 7
Stats
Livingston Livingston
Kilmarnock Kilmarnock
Shots on Goal
4
Shots on Goal
4
Shots off Goal
3
Shots off Goal
6
Blocked Shots
2
Blocked Shots
4
6 Corner Kicks 1
10 Fouls 10
1 Offsides 2
52% Ball Possession 48%
9 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Goal 4
3 Shots off Goal 6
2 Blocked Shots 4
7 Shots insidebox 8
2 Shots outsidebox 6
0 Goalkeeper Saves 3
546 Total passes 516
483 Passes accurate 471
0.69 expected_goals 2.08
🟨 1 Yellow Cards 2 🟨
🟥 0 Red Cards 0 🟥

Lineups

Livingston
Formation
Kilmarnock
J. Prior
J. Prior
C. Kerr
C. Kerr
B. Kabongolo
B. Kabongolo
D. Wilson
D. Wilson
C. Montano
C. Montano
E. Danso
E. Danso
M. Tait
M. Tait
L. Smith
L. Smith
S. May
S. May
B. McKay
🎯
B. McKay
R. Muirhead
R. Muirhead
M. Stryjek
M. Stryjek
M. Schjonning-Larsen
M. Schjonning-Larsen
G. Stanger
G. Stanger
R. Deas
🎯
R. Deas
D. Thompson
🎯
D. Thompson
F. Curtis
F. Curtis
A. Tshibola
A. Tshibola
T. Lowery
T. Lowery
G. Kiltie
🎯
G. Kiltie
N. Clescenco
N. Clescenco
J. Hugill
⚽ 2
J. Hugill
Livingston 4-2-3-1
Starting XI
28
J. Prior
G
2
C. Kerr
23
B. Kabongolo
D
27
D. Wilson
D
26
C. Montano
D
20
E. Danso
↓ 56' 🟨 31'
M
25
M. Tait
↓ 85'
M
15
L. Smith
↓ 66'
M
17
S. May
⚽ 19'
M
10
B. McKay
🎯 19' ↓ 56'
M
9
R. Muirhead
↓ 56'
F
Substitutes
14
J. Hamilton
G
37
S. Arfield
M
22
A. Shinnie
F
21
A. Tamm
F
29
J. Zimmerman
↑ 56'
F
7
J. Nouble
↑ 56'
3
B. Fati
↑ 85'
D
6
A. Denholm
↑ 56'
M
36
S. Culbert
↑ 66'
F
Kilmarnock 4-3-2-1
Starting XI
1
M. Stryjek
G
21
M. Schjonning-Larsen
↓ 46'
D
14
G. Stanger
↓ 62'
D
6
R. Deas
🎯 58'
D
3
D. Thompson
🎯 24' 🎯 53' ↓ 84' 🟨 38'
D
52
F. Curtis
⚽ 53'
M
36
A. Tshibola
↓ 62'
M
18
T. Lowery
M
11
G. Kiltie
🎯 34'
M
20
N. Clescenco
⚽ 34' ↓ 66'
M
44
J. Hugill
⚽ 24' ⚽ 58'
F
Substitutes
30
K. Wright
G
7
R. McKenzie
M
8
B. Lyons
↑ 46' 🟨 70'
M
16
K. Magennis
M
19
B. Anderson
F
22
J. Thomson
↑ 62'
12
D. Watson
↑ 66'
M
25
E. Schilte-Brown
↑ 62'
D
39
E. Bowie
↑ 84'
D
Last matches: Livingston
10.07.26
Fri
Livingston
Heart Of Midlothian
2
1
W
30.06.26
Fri
Livingston
Alloa Athletic
3
0
W
27.06.26
Fri
Livingston
Dundee
2
0
W
12.05.26
Pre
Livingston
Dundee Utd
0
0
D
09.05.26
Pre
Livingston
Dundee
0
3
L
01.05.26
Pre
Livingston
Aberdeen
2
2
D
25.04.26
Pre
Livingston
ST Mirren
2
0
W
11.04.26
Pre
Livingston
Dundee Utd
2
3
L
05.04.26
Pre
Livingston
Heart Of Midlothian
2
2
D
21.03.26
Pre
Livingston
Kilmarnock
0
2
L
14.03.26
Pre
Livingston
Hibernian
0
0
D
28.02.26
Pre
Livingston
ST Mirren
1
1
D
22.02.26
Pre
Livingston
Rangers
2
2
D
14.02.26
Pre
Livingston
Dundee
2
2
D
11.02.26
Pre
Livingston
Celtic
1
2
L
04.02.26
Pre
Livingston
Falkirk
1
2
L
31.01.26
Pre
Livingston
Motherwell
0
2
L
24.01.26
Pre
Livingston
Aberdeen
2
6
L
20.01.26
Pre
Livingston
ST Mirren
1
1
D
10.01.26
Pre
Livingston
Kilmarnock
1
1
D
Last matches: Kilmarnock
04.07.26
Fri
Kilmarnock
Linfield
3
2
W
01.07.26
Fri
Kilmarnock
Glentoran
4
0
W
12.05.26
Pre
Kilmarnock
Dundee
3
1
W
09.05.26
Pre
Kilmarnock
ST Mirren
3
0
W
02.05.26
Pre
Kilmarnock
Dundee Utd
3
0
W
25.04.26
Pre
Kilmarnock
Aberdeen
0
1
L
11.04.26
Pre
Kilmarnock
Dundee
2
2
D
04.04.26
Pre
Kilmarnock
Hibernian
0
3
L
21.03.26
Pre
Kilmarnock
Livingston
2
0
W
14.03.26
Pre
Kilmarnock
Heart Of Midlothian
1
0
W
28.02.26
Pre
Kilmarnock
Falkirk
1
5
L
21.02.26
Pre
Kilmarnock
Dundee Utd
1
1
D
15.02.26
Pre
Kilmarnock
Celtic
2
3
L
11.02.26
Pre
Kilmarnock
ST Mirren
4
3
W
04.02.26
Pre
Kilmarnock
Rangers
1
5
L
31.01.26
Pre
Kilmarnock
Aberdeen
3
0
W
24.01.26
Pre
Kilmarnock
Motherwell
0
4
L
10.01.26
Pre
Kilmarnock
Livingston
1
1
D
03.01.26
Pre
Kilmarnock
Hibernian
1
3
L
30.12.25
Pre
Kilmarnock
Dundee
1
2
L
H2H: Livingston vs Kilmarnock
17.05.26
H2H
Livingston
Kilmarnock
1
4
L
21.03.26
H2H
Kilmarnock
Livingston
2
0
L
10.01.26
H2H
Livingston
Kilmarnock
1
1
D
02.08.25
H2H
Kilmarnock
Livingston
2
2
D
16.07.25
H2H
Kilmarnock
Livingston
1
0
L
07.02.24
H2H
Kilmarnock
Livingston
1
0
L
16.12.23
H2H
Livingston
Kilmarnock
0
0
D
21.10.23
H2H
Kilmarnock
Livingston
3
1
L
13.05.23
H2H
Kilmarnock
Livingston
2
0
L
04.02.23
H2H
Livingston
Kilmarnock
3
1
W
04.11.22
H2H
Kilmarnock
Livingston
2
3
W
17.09.22
H2H
Livingston
Kilmarnock
1
0
W
27.01.21
H2H
Livingston
Kilmarnock
2
0
W
26.12.20
H2H
Kilmarnock
Livingston
1
2
W
17.10.20
H2H
Livingston
Kilmarnock
1
3
L
Last matches: Livingston
10.07.26
Fri
Livingston
Heart Of Midlothian
2
1
W
27.06.26
Fri
Livingston
Dundee
2
0
W
01.05.26
Pre
Livingston
Aberdeen
2
2
D
05.04.26
Pre
Livingston
Heart Of Midlothian
2
2
D
28.02.26
Pre
Livingston
ST Mirren
1
1
D
22.02.26
Pre
Livingston
Rangers
2
2
D
04.02.26
Pre
Livingston
Falkirk
1
2
L
31.01.26
Pre
Livingston
Motherwell
0
2
L
20.01.26
Pre
Livingston
ST Mirren
1
1
D
10.01.26
Pre
Livingston
Kilmarnock
1
1
D
30.12.25
Pre
Livingston
Dundee Utd
1
3
L
27.12.25
Pre
Livingston
Celtic
2
4
L
13.12.25
Pre
Livingston
Dundee
2
2
D
30.11.25
Pre
Livingston
Aberdeen
0
1
L
01.11.25
Pre
Livingston
Hibernian
2
2
D
25.10.25
Pre
Livingston
Motherwell
1
2
L
28.09.25
Pre
Livingston
Rangers
1
2
L
30.08.25
Pre
Livingston
Heart Of Midlothian
1
2
L
09.08.25
Pre
Livingston
Falkirk
3
1
W
H2H at home: Livingston
17.05.26
H2H
Livingston
Kilmarnock
1
4
L
10.01.26
H2H
Livingston
Kilmarnock
1
1
D
16.12.23
H2H
Livingston
Kilmarnock
0
0
D
04.02.23
H2H
Livingston
Kilmarnock
3
1
W
17.09.22
H2H
Livingston
Kilmarnock
1
0
W
27.01.21
H2H
Livingston
Kilmarnock
2
0
W
17.10.20
H2H
Livingston
Kilmarnock
1
3
L
Last matches: Kilmarnock
04.07.26
Fri
Kilmarnock
Linfield
3
2
W
01.07.26
Fri
Kilmarnock
Glentoran
4
0
W
09.05.26
Pre
Kilmarnock
ST Mirren
3
0
W
25.04.26
Pre
Kilmarnock
Aberdeen
0
1
L
04.04.26
Pre
Kilmarnock
Hibernian
0
3
L
28.02.26
Pre
Kilmarnock
Falkirk
1
5
L
21.02.26
Pre
Kilmarnock
Dundee Utd
1
1
D
04.02.26
Pre
Kilmarnock
Rangers
1
5
L
24.01.26
Pre
Kilmarnock
Motherwell
0
4
L
10.01.26
Pre
Kilmarnock
Livingston
1
1
D
30.12.25
Pre
Kilmarnock
Dundee
1
2
L
27.12.25
Pre
Kilmarnock
ST Mirren
0
0
D
14.12.25
Pre
Kilmarnock
Aberdeen
1
2
L
03.12.25
Pre
Kilmarnock
Heart Of Midlothian
1
1
D
09.11.25
Pre
Kilmarnock
Celtic
0
4
L
01.11.25
Pre
Kilmarnock
Falkirk
1
3
L
26.10.25
Pre
Kilmarnock
Rangers
1
3
L
27.09.25
Pre
Kilmarnock
Dundee Utd
2
0
W
30.08.25
Pre
Kilmarnock
Motherwell
2
2
D
10.08.25
Pre
Kilmarnock
Hibernian
2
2
D
H2H away: Kilmarnock
17.05.26
H2H
Livingston
Kilmarnock
1
4
W
10.01.26
H2H
Livingston
Kilmarnock
1
1
D
16.12.23
H2H
Livingston
Kilmarnock
0
0
D
04.02.23
H2H
Livingston
Kilmarnock
3
1
L
17.09.22
H2H
Livingston
Kilmarnock
1
0
L
27.01.21
H2H
Livingston
Kilmarnock
2
0
L
17.10.20
H2H
Livingston
Kilmarnock
1
3
W

Standings

Premiership
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 33 21 7 5 58:28 30 70
L W D W W
2 33 19 12 2 66:31 35 69
W L L L L
3 33 21 4 8 59:35 24 67
W W W W W
4 33 14 12 7 52:29 23 54
W L D L W
5 33 13 12 8 51:37 14 51
L W W L L
6 33 13 7 13 45:48 -3 46
L L L W L
7 33 9 13 11 45:54 -9 40
D D L L W
8 33 9 6 18 33:48 -15 33
L L W D W
9 33 8 9 16 34:53 -19 33
W L W W L
10 33 7 9 17 27:48 -21 30
W D D W L
11 33 6 10 17 37:65 -28 28
W W W W L
12 33 1 13 19 35:66 -31 16
L D L D W
Championship round
Relegation Round